The China-Pakistan Alliance: Rhetoric and Limitations
Programme Paper
Rosheen Kabraji
http://www.chathamhouse.org/sites/default/files/public/Research/Asia/1212pp_kabraji.pdf
At its core the bond between China and Pakistan is strategic and grounded in military-to-military ties. The agenda will continue to be driven by China, although many areas of cooperation have been established at the behest of Pakistan.
This paper examines the image that China and Pakistan have tried to create through a combined approach of multi-dimensional cooperation bolstered by an effective media strategy for their alliance. It argues for a measured interpretation that recognizes the obvious strengths of the Sino-Pakistani relationship but also the less understood parameters of the alliance.
The first section reviews how this 'all-weather' narrative has been built to illustrate why China's engagement with its neighbour is contingent upon the drivers of its own national security, regional ambitions and view of the changing world order, and not on unequivocal support of Pakistan.
Official rhetoric highlights similarities but often glosses over the challenges of the relationship. The role of the media seems set to become increasingly important in how the alliance is perceived both by the two countries' domestic audiences and externally, particularly by India and the United States.
For the relationship to evolve, particularly in the direction Pakistan desires, the two countries will need to move beyond a heavy reliance on military-to-military and elite contacts and include a more diverse range of private-sector investments and people-to-people contacts.
SUMMARY POINTS
"¢ China has been, and is likely to remain, a different type of partner to Pakistan than the United States. At its core the bond between the two countries is strategic and grounded in military-to-military ties. The agenda will continue to be driven by China, although many areas of cooperation have been established at the behest of Pakistan."¢ China does not emphasize an explicit 'value' correlation in its relationship with Pakistan, unlike the United States regarding democracy or pluralism, but rather focuses on a shared sense of being misunderstood victims of western press coverage, which plays well to both their domestic audiences.
"¢ Counter-terrorism is a pivotal area of cooperation. Closer cooperation is aimed at containing threats to China's internal stability in Xinjiang and securing the safety of Chinese investments and personnel in Pakistan. Pakistan may continue to stress the economic dimension of the relationship but it is not one of its central drivers.
"¢ The media in both countries have recently assumed an important role in promoting the rhetoric and the image of a strong partnership. Despite what some of this rhetoric claims, the relationship between the two countries does not rest on a meeting of ideology, values or cultures.
"¢ There are key limitations for the alliance. First, the tangible financial support Pakistan needs from China is not as readily available as it used to be. Second, as Pakistan becomes more unstable China is finding it more difficult to balance support for its ally with the criticism Pakistan receives from the international community on counter-terrorism and nuclear proliferation. Finally, there are clear indications that Pakistan is seeking to build a more diverse base of partners to avoid heavy reliance on one ally, whether it is the United States or China.
"¢ The impact of Chinese investments on existing domestic tensions in Pakistan is increasingly visible. Underestimating or dismissing how Chinese actions are perceived on the ground by ethno-nationalist and militant non-state actors could be deleterious for Pakistan's internal security in the coming years and lead to a further increase in violence directed at Chinese interests in the country.
"¢ China is playing the long game in Pakistan, strategizing and investing in its neighbour accordingly. It has provided Pakistan with the political, economic and military support it has needed to balance its relations with the United States and India, if and when it aligns with
Beijing's geo-strategic priorities. China would like to be the predominant influence in Pakistan, but it also recognizes America's current role in stabilizing the country's border regions with Afghanistan.
"¢ While China and Pakistan have shared regional interests and rivals, the crux of the bond is based on a reciprocal policy of non-interference in domestic issues, and avoiding a clash with each other's core national interests, at least in the public arena. Further instability in Xinjiang that can be traced back to Pakistan could turn out to be the real ----- in the rhetorical armour of the relationship with China
