Chinese new SSBN is noiser than Russian ones built 30 yrs ago

Discussion in 'China' started by StealthSniper, Nov 22, 2009.

  1. StealthSniper

    StealthSniper Senior Member Senior Member

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    China’s Noisy Nuclear Submarines


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    By Hans M. Kristensen

    China’s new Jin-class ballistic missile submarine is noisier than the Russian Delta III-class submarines built more than 30 years ago, according to a report produced by the U.S. Navy’s Office of Naval Intelligence (ONI).

    The report, which was first posted on the FAS Secrecy News Blog and has since been removed from the ONI web site, is to my knowledge the first official description made public of Chinese and Russian modern nuclear submarine noise levels.

    Force Level

    The report shows that China now has two Jin SSBNs, one of which is based at Hainan Island with the South Sea Fleet, along with two Type 093 Shang-class nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSN). The Jin was first described at Hainan in February 2008 and the two Shangs in September 2008. The second Jin SSBN is based at Jianggezhuang with the North Sea Fleet alongside the old Xia-class SSBN and four Han-class SSNs.

    The report confirms the existence of the Type 095, a third-generation SSN intended to follow the Type 093 Shang-class. Five Type 095s are expected from around 2015. The Type-95 is estimated to be noisier than the Russian Akula I SSN built 20 years ago.

    Missile Range

    The ONI report states that the JL-2 sea-launched ballistic missile on the Jin SSBNs has a range of ~4,000 nautical miles (~7,400 km) “is capable of reaching the continental United States from Chinese littorals.” Not quite, unless Chinese littorals extend well into the Sea of Japan. Since the continental United States does not include Alaska and Hawaii, a warhead from a 7,400-km range JL-2 would fall into the sea about 800 km from Seattle. A JL-2 carrying penetration aids in addition to a warhead would presumably have a shorter range.

    Julang-2 SLBM Range According to ONI
    Although the ONI report states that the Julang-2 can target the Continental United States, the range estimate it provides is insufficient to reach the lower 48 states or Hawaii.

    .
    Alaska would be in range if the JL-2 is launched from the very northern parts of Chinese waters, but Hawaii is out of range unless the missile is launched from a position close to South Korea or Japan. The U.S. Defense Department’s 2009 report to Congress on the Military Power of the People’s Republic of China also shows the range of the JL-2 to be insufficient to target the Continental United States or Hawaii from Chinese waters. The JL-2 instead appears to be a regional weapon with potential mission against Russia and India and U.S. bases in Guam and Japan.

    Patrol Levels


    The report also states that Chinese submarine patrols have “more than tripled” over the past few years, when compared to the historical levels of the last two decades.

    That sounds like a lot, but given that the entire Chinese submarine fleet in those two decades in average conducted fewer than three patrols per year combined, a trippling doesn’t amout to a whole lot for a submarine fleet of 63 submarines. According to data obtained from ONI under FOIA, the patrol number in 2008 was 12.

    Since only the most capable of the Chinese attack submarines presumably conduct these patrols away from Chinese waters – and since China has yet to send one of its ballistic missile submarines on patrol – that could mean one or two patrols per year per submarine.

    Implications

    The ONI report concludes that the Jin SSBN with the JL-2 SLBM gives the PLA Navy its first credible second-strike nuclear capability. The authors must mean in principle, because in a war such noisy submarines would presumably be highly vulnerabe to U.S. or Japanese anti-submarine warfare forces. (The noise level of China’s most modern diesel-electric submarines is another matter; ONI says some are comparable to Russian diesel-electric submarines).

    That does raise an interesting question about the Chinese SSBN program: if Chinese leaders are so concerned about the vulnerability of their nuclear deterrent, why base a significant portion of it on a few noisy platforms and send them out to sea where they can be sunk by U.S. attack submarines in a war? And if Chinese planners know that the sea-based deterrent is much more vulnerable than its land-based deterrent, why do they waste money on the SSBN program?

    The answer is probably a combination of national prestige and scenarios involving India or Russia that have less capable anti-submarine forces.

    Link:

    China’s Noisy Nuclear Submarines FAS Strategic Security Blog
     
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  3. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    So, what does it mean to india? An indian is pleased that russia is far more advanced than china on this?
     
  4. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Its a good news to India because your Xia and Jin class submarines are much more easy to detect and neutralize.
     
  5. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    It is more like a Yankee II noise level. It still makes the fish cringe. PLAN has yet to develop a quiet nuklear reactor. You can put all the rubber tiles you want, it isn't going to cover up cavitation.
     
  6. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    I bet these guys mistook 092G for 094s. The new 095 has not even been in the water yet.
     
  7. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    so, Yankees now can have a good sleep and need not be sleepless for it.

    BTW, B2 stealth bombers were built in 1980s,

    so all others-made bombers are more crappy than Yankees' one built 30 years ago.
     
  8. bengalraider

    bengalraider DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    One short answer would be YES!
    Also the SR-71 blackbird first broke the flight speed record in 1976 so today's cutting edge aircraft are slower than something that was built more than 3 decades ago, we can carry on the BTW game all night it serves no purpose .
    Indians do have a reason to cheer our SSBN is a scaled down version of the AKULA so we are way ahead of you in the submarine tech race (not in numbers).
     
  9. Koji

    Koji New Member

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  10. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    JL-2 is 8000+ kms and JL-2A 11000kms. JL-3, derived from DF-41, has a distance over 12000kms. What people see from internet pictures are two 092Gs, or 094I. The real 094s are being built with perhaps new type of HTGR reactors.
     
  11. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Has any intel agency ever tracked Chinese SLBMs ever go that far --- no.
     
  12. Koji

    Koji New Member

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    No need emperor, just clock on the link i provided.
     
  13. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    So wat exact intelligence news do you have on the "tracked distances" of US, Russian and Chinese SLBMs?
     
  14. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    US and Russian militaries are transparent enough to report the results of their tests. China is not. US and Russian EW satellites are always on watch and results of foregn ballistic missile tests are reported. If one wants to see the results, view the Pentagon's report to Congress 2009. The JL-2 varaints would not exceed 7,200km and have not even been tested. Operational capability is years away. There are no other missiles to go on the SSBNs.
     
  15. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    JL2 has been tested for dozns of times......if you don't know about it at all, it just proves how you are ignorant...


    welll. if USA had not revealed chinese ASAT test, could you know about it? now :stinker:
     
  16. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    JL-2 hasn't reached operational capability. How can you test a complete weapon's system that isn't even finished? Type 094s have been sitting completed with empty launch tubes. Now, if you want to talk about development tests, you had a modified Golf SSK testing pop-ups from 1998-2000, apparently a success, once you hit 2003-04 you have a number of failed launches into the Western desert, in 2005 they supposedly scored a hit. Programme was pretty quiet until 2008 when a launch from Bohai Bay landed in the Yellow Sea which was a failed South Pacific launch. China hasn't gotten anywhere close to an 8000km launch and the recent test doesn't point to anything better than 2000km. If the one success into the desert is to be believed, 3500km is the range we are looking at. The development of the missile is pretty much going the same course as Bulava. At least we can fall back on the ever proven Sineva if need be --- you have what.. JL-1? :sarcastic:
     
  17. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    And India is investing in the P8s when the Chinese subs are shouting on loudspeakers!!!

    Seriously though, Chinese subs are rarely out on patrol. They sit in the docks. Wonder what the reasons are. Also, when on patrol, they dont go with hot missiles. Again dont know why. So the Americans must be really following the Chinese patrol schedule to have tracked and got the acoustics of these subs. Also what it means is that since the Chinese subs dont go out on patrols, they are easy to track when they leave for one. Not good in a war situation.
     
  18. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Where are they going to go? Without AIP, their SSKs are going to be discovered on a long patrol. Their nukes are so noisy they will scare the dolphins. The rest of the problems stem from poor maintenance, they never figured out how to service their advanced Kilos. They have made no attempt to integrate Russian systems training, support, or repair into their infrastructure. The training is so poor, those sailors don't have the slightest idea what they are supposed to do with advanced equipment. Since they never bothered to figure out how Russians do it, their new SSKs, which have imported German diesels and French sonar, are an enigma as how to integrate their service into the framework.

    Chinese SSBNs don't go on patrol. They never have. When they tried it with the Xia class, they lost one.

    If submarines of PLAN ever got into a war situation with USN = end of PLAN. Their poor training, maintenance, and design just leaves too many gaps for them to be an effective fighting force.
     
  19. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    If China advocates her ability by loading boomers with JL-2s and sailing out to the Pacific, what would US do? Why should China alert others if it does not serve anything good? Pentagon gets most of its intelligence from internet nowadays.
     
  20. peter_rong

    peter_rong New Member

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    chinese militaries are transparent, and even more transparent: there is always 2+ rumors(or announcements) of each developing equipment.
     

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