Chinese missile could shift Pacific power balance

Discussion in 'China' started by SURB, Aug 6, 2010.

  1. SURB

    SURB Regular Member

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    Chinese missile could shift Pacific power balance

    By ERIC TALMADGE, Associated Press Writer Eric Talmadge, Associated Press Writer – Thu Aug 5, 5:43 pm ET

    ABOARD THE USS GEORGE WASHINGTON – Nothing projects U.S. global air and sea power more vividly than supercarriers. Bristling with fighter jets that can reach deep into even landlocked trouble zones, America's virtually invincible carrier fleet has long enforced its dominance of the high seas.

    China may soon put an end to that.

    U.S. naval planners are scrambling to deal with what analysts say is a game-changing weapon being developed by China — an unprecedented carrier-killing missile called the Dong Feng 21D that could be launched from land with enough accuracy to penetrate the defenses of even the most advanced moving aircraft carrier at a distance of more than 1,500 kilometers (900 miles).

    ___

    EDITOR'S NOTE — The USS George Washington supercarrier recently deployed off North Korea in a high-profile show of U.S. sea power. AP Tokyo News Editor Eric Talmadge was aboard the carrier, and filed this report.

    ___

    Analysts say final testing of the missile could come as soon as the end of this year, though questions remain about how fast China will be able to perfect its accuracy to the level needed to threaten a moving carrier at sea.

    The weapon, a version of which was displayed last year in a Chinese military parade, could revolutionize China's role in the Pacific balance of power, seriously weakening Washington's ability to intervene in any potential conflict over Taiwan or North Korea. It could also deny U.S. ships safe access to international waters near China's 11,200-mile (18,000-kilometer) -long coastline.

    While a nuclear bomb could theoretically sink a carrier, assuming its user was willing to raise the stakes to atomic levels, the conventionally-armed Dong Feng 21D's uniqueness is in its ability to hit a powerfully defended moving target with pin-point precision.

    The Chinese Defense Ministry did not immediately respond to the AP's request for a comment.

    Funded by annual double-digit increases in the defense budget for almost every year of the past two decades, the Chinese navy has become Asia's largest and has expanded beyond its traditional mission of retaking Taiwan to push its sphere of influence deeper into the Pacific and protect vital maritime trade routes.

    "The Navy has long had to fear carrier-killing capabilities," said Patrick Cronin, senior director of the Asia-Pacific Security Program at the nonpartisan, Washington-based Center for a New American Security. "The emerging Chinese antiship missile capability, and in particular the DF 21D, represents the first post-Cold War capability that is both potentially capable of stopping our naval power projection and deliberately designed for that purpose."

    Setting the stage for a possible conflict, Beijing has grown increasingly vocal in its demands for the U.S. to stay away from the wide swaths of ocean — covering much of the Yellow, East and South China seas — where it claims exclusivity.

    It strongly opposed plans to hold U.S.-South Korean war games in the Yellow Sea off the northeastern Chinese coast, saying the participation of the USS George Washington supercarrier, with its 1,092-foot (333-meter) flight deck and 6,250 personnel, would be a provocation because it put Beijing within striking range of U.S. F-18 warplanes.

    The carrier instead took part in maneuvers held farther away in the Sea of Japan.

    U.S. officials deny Chinese pressure kept it away, and say they will not be told by Beijing where they can operate.

    "We reserve the right to exercise in international waters anywhere in the world," Rear Adm. Daniel Cloyd, who headed the U.S. side of the exercises, said aboard the carrier during the maneuvers, which ended last week.

    But the new missile, if able to evade the defenses of a carrier and of the vessels sailing with it, could undermine that policy.

    "China can reach out and hit the U.S. well before the U.S. can get close enough to the mainland to hit back," said Toshi Yoshihara, an associate professor at the U.S. Naval War College. He said U.S. ships have only twice been that vulnerable — against Japan in World War II and against Soviet bombers in the Cold War.

    Carrier-killing missiles "could have an enduring psychological effect on U.S. policymakers," he e-mailed to The AP. "It underscores more broadly that the U.S. Navy no longer rules the waves as it has since the end of World War II. The stark reality is that sea control cannot be taken for granted anymore."

    Yoshihara said the weapon is causing considerable consternation in Washington, though — with attention focused on land wars in Afghanistan and Iraq — its implications haven't been widely discussed in public.

    Analysts note that while much has been made of China's efforts to ready a carrier fleet of its own, it would likely take decades to catch U.S. carrier crews' level of expertise, training and experience.

    But Beijing does not need to match the U.S. carrier for carrier. The Dong Feng 21D, smarter, and vastly cheaper, could successfully attack a U.S. carrier, or at least deter it from getting too close.

    U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates warned of the threat in a speech last September at the Air Force Association Convention.

    "When considering the military-modernization programs of countries like China, we should be concerned less with their potential ability to challenge the U.S. symmetrically — fighter to fighter or ship to ship — and more with their ability to disrupt our freedom of movement and narrow our strategic options," he said.

    Gates said China's investments in cyber and anti-satellite warfare, anti-air and anti-ship weaponry, along with ballistic missiles, "could threaten America's primary way to project power" through its forward air bases and carrier strike groups.

    The Pentagon has been worried for years about China getting an anti-ship ballistic missile. The Pentagon considers such a missile an "anti-access," weapon, meaning that it could deny others access to certain areas.

    The Air Force's top surveillance and intelligence officer, Lt. Gen. David Deptula, told reporters this week that China's effort to increase anti-access capability is part of a worrisome trend.

    He did not single out the DF 21D, but said: "While we might not fight the Chinese, we may end up in situations where we'll certainly be opposing the equipment that they build and sell around the world."

    Questions remain over when — and if — China will perfect the technology; hitting a moving carrier is no mean feat, requiring state-of-the-art guidance systems, and some experts believe it will take China a decade or so to field a reliable threat. Others, however, say final tests of the missile could come in the next year or two.

    Former Navy commander James Kraska, a professor of international law and sea power at the U.S. Naval War College, recently wrote a controversial article in the magazine Orbis outlining a hypothetical scenario set just five years from now in which a Deng Feng 21D missile with a penetrator warhead sinks the USS George Washington.

    That would usher in a "new epoch of international order in which Beijing emerges to displace the United States."

    While China's Defense Ministry never comments on new weapons before they become operational, the DF 21D — which would travel at 10 times the speed of sound and carry conventional payloads — has been much discussed by military buffs online.

    A pseudonymous article posted on Xinhuanet, website of China's official news agency, imagines the U.S. dispatching the George Washington to aid Taiwan against a Chinese attack.

    The Chinese would respond with three salvos of DF 21D, the first of which would pierce the hull, start fires and shut down flight operations, the article says. The second would knock out its engines and be accompanied by air attacks. The third wave, the article says, would "send the George Washington to the bottom of the ocean."

    Comments on the article were mostly positive.

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    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2010
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  3. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    First of all this weapons it still under development. also If USA decides to go for war against China they will destroy these threats first . That will be first stage of attack.
     
  4. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    The anti ship missile by China can be countered by US using BMD. The Ticonderoga class and Burke class destroyers do have Aegis Ballistic Missile Defence to shoot down missiles over the sea. US may be concerned with the DF 21 but they do have solution for it ready.
     
  5. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    well it an not serios question for usa it is for India

    well we guys never think about our self we just passed to the other

    how will we deal with this
     
  6. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    Why should India worry about this?
    Let America and China quarrel with each other. The more they do the better for us.
     
  7. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    If there is any war with China Indian navy will not be going to CHina sea to fight them . Navy will be mainly concentrating in blocking chinese supplies. Its army and Airforce that will be into real fight.
     
  8. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    you mena we should be like rabbit close our eyes and wait for some to handle the trouble

    [​IMG]

    what is our preparation against the missile don't our intelligence agency don't have knowledge of that missile so what we are doing for our safety
     
  9. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    can you say 100% no dear you can say anything can happen

    as an nation we should work out all the things and its duty of our force our intelligence agency our scientist
     
  10. civfanatic

    civfanatic Retired Moderator

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    This is an anti-ship missile only. Our navy will never operate near China's coast so why should we worry about it?
     
  11. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    as an nation we should worry about every single thing which can go against our nation well how will you will if in worst condition they target our AC

    we should keep open eye on every thing not just an missile and let act for our nation safety

    they make highway along with border trains link in Pakistan ,sl Nepal and we are sleeping because people like you say why should we worry

    brother we should worry for every single thing
     
    AKHAND BHARAT likes this.
  12. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    It has a range of 3000 km. If they want to target our ships in Bay of Bengal they can do so sitting anywhere in China.
     
  13. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    that the problem with us

    we will not act till the problem come at our door and ring the bell
     
  14. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Thats the problem with us . WE all start giving our most important opinions without knowing complete facts. If you check first article its range is 900 miles or 1500 kms not 3000 kms. and its still under development.
     
  15. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    sir if its range is 1500 km don't you think it a serious question for Indian ship

    how will we provide safety to our AC

    can we afford to close our eyes and wait for usa and china conflict

    my question is what is our preparation and how will we can Handel
     
  16. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    India must buy Aegis BDM from US for our ships. According to Wiki the normal DF21 is 2200 km but the Anti ship is 3000km.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2010
  17. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Anti Ship missile is not import to us but more to China. They dont need to spend on expensive AC's when they can counter it sitting in land.

    Just like China made minor modifications to its DF-21 BM, India too can modify its Agni-2 to make an anti-ship. Similarly they can modify Brahmos and Prithvi to make it ASAT.
     
  18. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Buddy each aircraft carriers have decent air defence and also have several other kind of vessels in its groups . In coming years hopefully we will be able to integrate our BMD systems to our naval vessels. Moreover we also have decent enough weapons to deter Chinese vessels from entering in Indian Ocean. Our Brahmos is more than enough for them though its range is less . They also donot have any counter for Brahmos .
     
  19. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    There is no merit in buying Aegis . we have already worked on Barak 2 system and its has decent air defence . why to waste so must money for something so costly and that will also kill our attempts to develop our own ship air defence.
     
    Last edited: Aug 6, 2010
  20. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    we should work on our Barak 2 system and make capable to handle the condition
     
  21. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    DF-21 Antiship has speed of Mach 10 to Mach 12. I have doubt if Barak-8 ( barak 2 ) can intercept it. If it can then good.

    One of the reasons for China to build Anti Ship was becoz of USN's past involvement in Taiwan Strait crisis. Every time during Taiwan strait crisis, US has deployed ships and battle carrier group in defence of Taiwan. PRC had to back down everytime due to this. Now they can muscle flex in front of the USN

    Hope i am wrong but once they have leverage against USN, we may see Taiwan strait crisis again.
     

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