Chinese manufacturing output slows to 17-month low

Discussion in 'China' started by SHASH2K2, Aug 3, 2010.

  1. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Chinese manufacturing output slows to 17-month low
    Chinese factory worker The Chinese government is continuing to try to slow economic growth

    Chinese manufacturing output grew at its slowest rate for 17 months in July, as the government continues efforts to rein in rapid economic growth.

    The official purchasing managers' index of manufacturing output fell to 51.2 in July from 52.1 in June, said the China Federation of Logistics and Purchasing.

    Analysts said the slowdown came as banks continue to make it harder for firms to borrow money.

    Beijing has long been concerned the economy could be overheating.


    Analysts said continuing efforts to cool property prices were also having a knock-on effect, as this was further limiting bank credit.

    Meanwhile, the government has been reducing stimulus spending on construction projects, and putting controls on investment in high energy consuming and polluting factories.

    "We know Chinese growth is slowing and this number provides confirmation of this," said Brian Jackson, a strategist with Royal Bank of Canada in Hong Kong.

    He added that China was now likely to be watching the state of the US and European economies.

    Mr Jackson said that if Chinese exports remain strong, the government would stick to its slowdown policy, but that if exports fall, "Beijing will likely face pressure to deliver a renewed surge in investment spending".

    The most recent official figures showed that the overall Chinese economy grew by 10.3% in the three months to June, down from 11.9% in January-March, but still well above the government's 8% target.

    A figure of 50 or above in the purchasing managers' index represents growth.

    http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-10831139

    Is it a sign of slowing of Chinese growth?
     
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  3. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Economy may slow down but no double dip: Chinese Central Bank
    The Chinese central bank on Tuesday said it is possible for economic growth to slow but ruled out any chances of a "double dip". The ongoing economic development has revealed signs of a slowdown in the country's growth, though the fundamentals remain strong, the People's Bank of China said in a
    statement.

    It made this judgment based on the purchasing managers' index for the manufacturing sector remaining above the boom bust line of 50 per cent, although the pace of the increase has decelerated. Also, investment and retail sales continue to show strong growth, plus the global economy is improving.

    Further, the European sovereign debt crisis is not expected to have a large impact on the Chinese economy, it said. The country's gross domestic product increased 10.3 per cent year on year in the second quarter of this year, slower than the 11.9 per cent growth in the first quarter and 10.7 per cent expansion in the last quarter of 2009, official media quoted the statement as saying.

    The central bank report said the Q2 slowdown in GDP growth is a correction following the earlier excessive expansion and also a result of the government's macro regulations that aimed at curbing steep property price increases, easing local government debt risks and avoiding possible inflation. "It is good for rebalancing the economic structure and achieving a sustainable economic growth," the report said.

    The central bank said the country's new bank lending would be within the 7.5 trillion yuan (USD 1.1 trillion) target in 2010 if the increase is maintained at the June level. The new yuan-denominated loans for the first half of the year reached 4.63 trillion yuan, down by 2.74 trillion yuan compared with the same period last year.
    http://www.hindustantimes.com/Economy-may-slow-down-but-no-double-dip-Chinese-Central-Bank/Article1-578586.aspx
     
  4. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    China Tells Banks to Cut High-Risk, Hidden Loans
    SHANGHAI — Disappointed with his low savings deposit rate, a 29-year-old chemical company salesman named Zhang Zhenlei says he took 130,000 renminbi out of his savings account last November and bought into a higher-yielding investment trust through his bank’s wealth management division.
    The money, equivalent to $19,000, would be used to help finance two government highway and infrastructure projects, the bank told him.

    “They told me the details and which companies would get the loans,” Mr. Zhang said. “And they told me the risk was under control.”

    Mr. Zhang got in right under the wire. Last month, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a sharp warning, ordering investment trust companies to stop selling such products in cooperation with banks.

    Regulators were apparently worried that banks and trusts were forming partnerships and using products like the one sold to Mr. Zhang to evade rules that went into effect earlier this year aimed at slowing bank lending and reducing excess credit. That came after government data showed a sharp rise in inflation and property prices.

    Regulators, suspecting that banks and trusts are secretly repackaging old loans and moving them off bank balance sheets, are concerned that financial institutions here may have engaged in the same sort of financial engineering that got Western banks into trouble.

    On Aug. 10, government overseers acted again, ordering banks to move any off-balance-sheet loans back onto their books and to make provisions to safeguard against a rise in bad loans, according to a copy of the government order given to The New York Times by an industry expert.

    The decision came after the Fitch credit rating agency warned several weeks ago that such off-balance-sheet deals were understating the extent of bank lending in China and thereby masking the dangers associated with an increase in risky loans.

    Fitch estimates that Chinese banks had about $350 billion in trust-related products on their balance sheets at the end of June, and that much of that lending had not been publicly disclosed.

    “Regardless of how the transaction is structured, credit is disappearing from bank balance sheets, resulting in pervasive understatement of credit growth,” a Fitch analyst, Charlene Chu, wrote in a June presentation. “Credit risk has not disappeared but merely been transferred to investors.”

    The off-balance-sheet deals are raising warning flags about a possible slowdown. While the Chinese economy remains robust — it overtook Japan in the second quarter to become the world’s second-largest economy, behind that of the United States — analysts worry that a surge in bank lending last year and early this year might have led to wasteful spending on infrastructure and real estate projects.

    In recent years, the government has been trying to crack down on what it deems wasteful spending on “luxurious” local government buildings, highways to nowhere and so-called image projects that are constructed in poverty-stricken areas.

    The basis for those worries was laid last year, after the government encouraged aggressive lending as part of a huge economic stimulus package. The result was a record 9.59 trillion renminbi or $1.4 trillion in new bank loans in 2009, about double the previous year. Some analysts fear the sharp increase in lending included many bad loans that will begin to show up over the next few years.

    Aware of the risks, Chinese regulators are pressing state-run banks to raise billions of dollars in capital to cushion any downturn — a task that could be complicated by any perceptions among private investors that the banks are exposed to a lot of risky debt. The government is also conducting stress tests to determine how banks will perform if property prices plummet.

    Beijing is now trying to restrict lending and ease asset price inflation without setting off a slowdown.

    “They’re stuck in a policy bind,” says Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing, noting China’s heavy dependence on investment-driven growth. “They have to choose between cleaning things up and maintaining high growth.”

    Pushing in the opposite direction are banks and investment trusts, which want to continue pumping money into the economy to bolster their profits. Analysts say the banks and trusts have been adept at evading the rules with clever and complex financial products.


    Even though most banks contacted in recent weeks said they had stopped offering such products, several said they had found ways to continue to sell them. Analysts say it is unclear just how pervasive such products are.

    Something similar happened here in the 1990s, when aggressive financing by banks and investment trusts led to big losses, huge bankruptcies and new regulations.

    Chinese banks appear to be stronger this time around. Over the last decade, huge restructuring and government recapitalization efforts allowed the big state banks to clean up their balance sheets and eventually raise billions of dollars in public stock offerings.

    Still, analysts say the lack of transparency about lending makes it difficult for investors and regulators to assess the risks facing some banks.

    “Essentially what you had was a bank using a trust company to package that bank’s own loans into a wealth management product, which was then sold to its own customers,” said Jason Bedford, a manager at KPMG in Beijing. “The problem is you don’t have a clear transfer of risk off of the balance sheet.”

    With the help of trusts, banks are repackaging loans as investments, analysts say, thereby making room to issue additional loans. And trusts are turning to wealthy bank clients to raise new capital.

    Banking customers are also contributing to the continued use of partnerships between banks and investment trusts, analysts say. Those customers, which include corporate clients, have been frustrated with the low yields they earn on savings deposits — close to 2 percent — and with the dearth of alternative investment options. Higher-yielding investment trusts were seen as ideal.

    “Banks have a lot of demands from high net worth depositors,” particularly big corporate accounts, Mr. Bedford at KPMG said.

    Stephen Green, an analyst based in Shanghai at Standard Chartered Bank, describes investment trusts as financial intermediaries, filling in gaps in the financial markets and acting as a jack of all trades — part hedge fund, mutual fund, private equity firm and bank lender.

    Trusts are also a vital source of financing for private companies, and lately real estate developers, which often have a difficult time securing loans from state-owned banks — largely because the government is trying to restrain real estate development.

    But many investment trusts are state-owned, and they often finance state infrastructure projects. For instance, the Xi’an Trust, which is owned by the government in the city of Xi’an, is providing money for land, water and electricity projects to build a new high-tech base for the city.

    For wealthy investors like Mr. Zhang, though, investment trusts offer attractive interest rates, about double the savings deposit rate.

    Mr. Zhang, who is a V.I.P client at his state-owned bank, says he spent a half hour filling out paperwork so that he could invest in a trust and help finance an infrastructure company in Inner Mongolia and also a highway development company in Guangdong Province, in southern China.

    “It turned out very well,” said Mr. Zhang, who has already gotten his money back, with interest payments, after the six-month lockup period ended.

    As for the crackdown on trust products, regulators may have difficulty, analysts say. A wealth manager at I.C.B.C., one of China’s biggest state-owned banks, was offering investment trusts to banking clients two weeks ago.

    “Now we have a 57-day trust product with a yield rate of 2.6 percent,” the manager told one prospective client over the phone. “It’s available from today. Though financial products aren’t authorized for principal to be guaranteed, usually we can orally guarantee your principal.”
     
  5. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    China ran their stress test recently and found 20% of their loan books are in danger. Out of 40 trillion RMB, $1.2 trillion are NPLs. Tack on the $400 billion still floating around from the bad loans of the 90s and that total comes to $1.6 trillion in bad debts.
     
  6. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    China's once red-hot economic growth continued to decelerate in July following a slowdown in June as government polices to cool property markets and close energy-intensive plants began to bite.

    In the second quarter of 2010, the world's third largest economy expanded 10.3 percent, slowing from the first quarter's 11.9 percent.
    Latest monthly data, issued Wednesday, came as no surprise to many analysts and officials. The growth in urban fixed-assets investment, one of the major drivers for the economy, slowed to 22.3 percent in July from a year earlier, down from the 25 percent increase in recent months. Industrial production, a major gauge of economic activity, was up 13.4 percent in July from a year earlier, slipping from a 13.7 percent year-on-year increase in June.

    In mid-April, the Chinese government ordered a few measures to rein in on the runaway property prices including higher interest rates for mortgage loans and higher down payments. In May, the government clamped down on energy-intensive industries following a rise in energy consumption per unit gross domestic production in the first quarter. New projects were restricted and polluting plants were ordered to shut down. The four trillion yuan stimulus package, introduced in late 2008 in the wake of the global financial crisis, started to unwind early 2010.

    Sheng Laiyun, spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said Wednesday that the slowdown was the result of macroeconomic policies. He said the clamp-down on six major energy-intensive industries contributed to 70 percent of the slower pace in industrial output growth. In principle, no new projects, either government-funded or privately-funded, were allowed to start and only existing projects are likely to receive new investments.

    Sheng also pointed out that investment contributed to over 80 percent of GDP growth in the first half of 2009 while the percentage dwindled to 59.1 percent in the first half of 2010. He said private investment has picked up steam. In the period between January to July, private investment accounted for 52 percent of total investment, up from 49.3 percent in same period of 2009.

    Nomura Global Economics, the research arm of the world's major investment bank Nomura, said the economy is entering a stage of "more sustainable" and solid expansion.

    According to China Customs, China's July trade surplus surged to US$ 28.7 billion, the highest level since January 2009. While signaling a stable expansion, the figures added to pressure on China to appreciate its currency faster after the country took a break from a trade deficit in March.

    Although the economy is slowing, consumer prices rose 3.3 percent in July. Most analysts say it was mainly seasonal as flooding in many areas across the nation and high temperatures pushed up prices in food and vegetables. The prices of food, a major component for China's CPI, jumped 6.8 percent from a year earlier and 0.9 percent from June. At the beginning of this year, China set the annual inflation target at 3 percent.

    Analysts have said an interest rate hike could be in the works. But others have ruled out the possibility. Zhuang Jian, economist of the Asia Development Bank, said China's inflation was low compared with India and a rate hike would draw "hot money" into China.
     
  7. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    China Sets Strict Rules on Off-Book Loans


    SHANGHAI — Disappointed with his low savings deposit rate, a 29-year-old chemical company salesman named Zhang Zhenlei says he took $19,000 out of his savings account last November and bought into a higher-yielding investment trust through his bank’s wealth management division.

    The money, the bank told him, would help finance two government highway and infrastructure projects.

    “They told me the details and which companies would get the loans,” Mr. Zhang said. “And they told me the risk was under control.”

    But last month, the China Banking Regulatory Commission issued a sharp warning, ordering investment trust companies to stop selling such products in cooperation with banks. Regulators were apparently worried that banks and trusts were forming partnerships and using products like the one sold to Mr. Zhang to, in effect, finance loans without calling them loans.

    The government evidently suspected that banks were using such maneuvers to evade rules put in place this year to rein in rampant lending and excess credit. Those conditions have been cited as a reason for rising property prices and overall inflation.

    Regulators, suspecting that banks and trusts are secretly repackaging old loans and moving them off bank balance sheets, are concerned that financial institutions in China may have engaged in the same sort of financial engineering that got Western banks into trouble.

    On Aug. 10, government overseers acted again, ordering banks to move any off-balance-sheet loans back onto their books and to make provisions to safeguard against a rise in bad loans, according to a copy of the government order given to The New York Times by an industry expert.

    Several weeks ago, the Fitch credit rating agency warned that such off-balance-sheet deals were understating the size of bank lending in China and thereby masking the risks associated with an increase in dodgy loans.

    Fitch estimates that Chinese banks had about $350 billion in trust-related products on their balance sheets at the end of June, and that much of that lending had not been publicly disclosed.

    “Regardless of how the transaction is structured, credit is disappearing from bank balance sheets, resulting in pervasive understatement of credit growth,” a Fitch analyst, Charlene Chu, wrote in a June presentation. “Credit risk has not disappeared but merely been transferred to investors.”

    The off-balance-sheet deals are raising warning flags about a possible slowdown here. While China’s economy remains robust — it overtook Japan in the second quarter to become the world’s second-largest economy, behind the United States — analysts worry that a surge in bank lending last year and early this year might have led to wasteful spending on infrastructure and real estate projects.

    In recent years, the government has been trying to crack down on what it deems wasteful spending on “luxurious” local government buildings, highways to nowhere and so-called image projects that are constructed in poverty-stricken areas.

    The basis for these worries was laid last year, after the government encouraged aggressive lending as part of a huge economic stimulus package. The result was a record $1.4 trillion in new bank loans in 2009, about double the previous year. Some analysts fear the sharp increase in lending included many bad loans that will begin to show up over the next few years.

    Aware of the risks, Chinese regulators are pressing state-run banks to raise billions of dollars in capital to cushion any downturn — a task that could be complicated by any perceptions among private investors that the banks are exposed to a lot of risky debt. The government is also conducting stress tests to determine how banks will perform if property prices plummet.

    Beijing is now trying to restrict lending and ease asset price inflation without setting off a slowdown.

    “They’re stuck in a policy bind,” says Michael Pettis, a professor of finance at Peking University in Beijing, noting China’s heavy dependence on investment-driven growth. “They have to choose between cleaning things up and maintaining high growth.”

    Pushing in the opposite direction are banks and investment trusts, which want to continue pumping money into the economy to bolster their profits. Analysts say they have been adept at evading the rules with clever and complex financial products.

    Even though most banks contacted in recent weeks said they had stopped offering such products, several said they had found ways to continue to sell them. Analysts say it is unclear just how pervasive such products are.

    Something similar happened here in the 1990s, when aggressive financing by banks and investment trusts led to big losses, huge bankruptcies and new regulations.

    Chinese banks appear to be stronger this time around. Over the last decade, huge restructuring and government recapitalization efforts allowed the big state banks to clean up their balance sheets and eventually raise billions of dollars in public stock offerings.

    Still, analysts say the lack of transparency about lending makes it difficult for investors and regulators to assess the risks facing some banks.

    “Essentially what you had was a bank using a trust company to package that bank’s own loans into a wealth management product, which was then sold to its own customers,” says Jason Bedford, a manager at KPMG in Beijing. “The problem is you don’t have a clear transfer of risk off of the balance sheet.”

    With the help of trusts, banks are repackaging loans as investments, analysts say, thereby making room to issue additional loans. And trusts are turning to wealthy bank clients to raise new capital.

    Banking customers are also contributing to the continued use of partnerships between banks and investment trusts, analysts say. These customers, which include corporate clients, have been frustrated with the low yields they earn on savings deposit — close to 2 percent — and with the dearth of alternative investment options. Higher-yielding investment trusts were seen as ideal.

    “Banks have a lot of demands from high-net-worth depositors,” particularly big corporate accounts, Mr. Bedford at KPMG said.

    Stephen Green, a Shanghai-based analyst at Standard Chartered Bank, describes investment trusts as financial intermediaries, filling in gaps in the financial markets and acting as a jack of all trades — part hedge fund, mutual fund, private equity firm and bank lender.

    Trusts are also a vital source of financing for private companies, and lately real estate developers, which often have a difficult time securing loans from state-owned banks — largely because the government is trying to restrain real estate development.

    But many investment trusts are state-owned, and they often finance state infrastructure projects. For instance, the Xi’an Trust, which is owned by the government in the city of Xi’an, is providing money for land, water and electricity projects to build a new high-tech base for the city.

    For wealthy investors like Zhang Zhenlei, though, investment trusts offer attractive interest rates, about double the savings deposit rate.

    Mr. Zhang, who is a V.I.P. client at his state-owned bank, says he spent a half hour filling out paperwork so that he could invest in a trust and help finance an infrastructure company in Inner Mongolia and also a highway development company in southern China’s Guangdong Province.

    “It turned out very well,” says Mr. Zhang, who has already gotten his money back, with interest payments, after the six-month lockup period ended.

    As for the crackdown on trust products, regulators may have difficulty, analysts say. A wealth manager at I.C.B.C., one of China’s biggest state-owned banks, was offering investment trusts to banking clients two weeks ago.

    “Now we have a 57-day trust product with a yield rate of 2.6 percent,” the manager told one prospective client over the phone. “It’s available from today. Though financial products aren’t authorized for principal to be guaranteed, usually we can orally guarantee your principal.”
     
  8. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    insterest rate is attractive at generally 4.2+% per annum vs. ordinary 3% or so.

    these months Chinese banks are busy either raising billions of dollars in public stock offerings (Agribank and Everbright) or getting refinanced
     
  9. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Indian model of growth wins praise over its Chinese rival


    BEIJING: Indian economic growth, often described as chaotic and weighed down by poor infrastructure, came in for praise from experts here, compared to more disciplined but highly autocratic Chinese model.

    While Indian economic growth was more fuelled by high domestic consumption and services, the Chinese model relied heavily on manufacturing and exports, said Western and Chinese experts at the state TV debate, on the sidelines of of the World Economic Forum being held here.

    Besides, India has comparative strategic advantage in the value chain whereas China relied mostly on the labour and cost advantages, said Fu Jun, professor of the Political Economy of the Peking University.

    "India in comparison has done a better job", Jun said.

    "What is interesting from now on is which one is more viable. I have to give credit to India. What India will do next is to continue the strategy and move into other areas. By comparison we (China) have to readjust our strategy into manufacturing. I do not see reasonable balance between supply and demand," he added.

    Human resources development minister Kapil Sibal, who was participating in the debate, said, "Because our economy is based on domestic demand, there is much greater innovation and ability of the entrepreneurs to actually produce wealth. In the long run a lot of innovation and lot of wealth production is going to come from our part of the world."

    Martin Wolf, associate editor of the Financial Times, who was critical of the Indian growth model said, however, "Indian development is working despite failure of organisation and poor infrastructure. It is clear that lot of successful multinational companies have good assets in India."

    The debate, the first of the three was held on the side lines of the Geneva based World Economic Forum which was being held at Chinese port city of Tianjin, where over 1,400 political, business leaders and economists gathered to deliberate on "Driving Growth through Sustainability".

    Besides Sibal, Karnataka chief minister, BS Yeddyurappa and a host of Indian business leaders are taking part in the meeting, which is inaugurated today by Chinese Prime Minister, We Jiabao.


    Read more: Indian model of growth wins praise over its Chinese rival - The Times of India Indian model of growth wins praise over its Chinese rival - The Times of India
     
  10. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    The U.S.-China Exchange Rate Squeeze

    WASHINGTON — Say there was a way to create a half-million American jobs over the next two years without adding a dime to the debt or deficit. And say it would also revive moribund Rust Belt factories, reduce the country’s gaping trade deficit and help stabilize the international economic system.
    All of this would occur, some economists say, if only China would stop manipulating its currency, keeping it artificially undervalued as a means of boosting its exports and fueling its tremendous economic growth.

    Anger over China’s exchange-rate policy nearly boiled over in Congressional hearings last week. Treasury Secretary Timothy F. Geithner accused China of violating international norms. President Obama plans to press the currency issue, along with complaints about China’s policies on trade and intellectual property, at the Group of 20 summit meeting in South Korea in November.

    That China has undervalued its currency, the renminbi, for much of the past decade to boost its surging export-driven economy is not seriously doubted; China intervenes in the markets by buying an estimated $1 billion a day using renminbi. For the lay observer, it’s befuddling. Why does this situation persist?

    Would China benefit by letting the renminbi rise?

    Yes, most experts agree that China would probably be better off if the renminbi’s value rose. Doing so would give Chinese consumers more purchasing power, lessen the risk of inflation and asset bubbles, and potentially reduce stark inequalities that have contributed to social unrest.

    What’s stopping China, then?

    Exporters, concentrated along the southern coast, wield enormous clout in Beijing and benefit from an undervalued currency, said Minxin Pei, a political scientist at Claremont McKenna College in Claremont, Calif. So do state-owned enterprises, which have excess capacity and need to be able to sell goods cheaply abroad. China’s importers are unhappy with the undervalued renminbi — as are officials at the central bank — but both groups are relatively weak.

    In the United States, there must be someone against a stronger Chinese currency, right?

    Large multinational corporations, and Wall Street, are comfortable with a weak renminbi. Many of the biggest American conglomerates make goods in China (or sell them in the United States) and benefit from the undervalued currency. Financial services companies find deal-making easier with a strong dollar and want to help invest the capital sloshing around China.

    But aren’t the forces on the other side just as strong?

    A high dollar places tremendous competitive pressure on American agricultural producers and domestic manufacturers, and thereby hampers job creation.

    So, it’s not surprising that Midwest politicians and labor unions have been among China’s fiercest critics. High unemployment has also prompted the White House and most Congressional Democrats (and a substantial number of Republicans) to side with the critics.

    How have previous problems with a strong dollar been handled?

    In the late 1960s, rising federal spending during the Vietnam War and the Great Society pushed inflation upward. The United States had a trade deficit for the first time in the postwar era. Manufacturers were furious. President Richard M. Nixon responded by taking the country off the gold standard in 1971, which caused the dollar to fall by about 20 percent.

    From 1981 to 1985, the dollar soared again, as the Federal Reserve boosted interest rates to combat inflation and the Reagan administration borrowed to finance big budget deficits. In September 1985, Treasury Secretary James A. Baker III met Japanese and German officials at the Plaza Hotel in Manhattan. Faced with threats of protectionist action by Congress, the two countries agreed on a plan to devalue the dollar.

    So, could such an agreement happen again?

    A rapid devaluation of the dollar is unlikely anytime soon. No country, even an ally, wants to see its currency suddenly rise in value (and its exports become more expensive) amid a fragile global recovery. The international monetary system has also gotten more complex, with the creation of the euro and the rise of large emerging economies like Brazil, India and Russia.

    Though China allowed its currency to rise by more than 20 percent against the dollar from 2005 to 2008, the financial crisis (which led investors to flock to the dollar) led to a return to old ways. In June, Beijing promised greater exchange-rate flexibility, but since then the renminbi has risen by only about 1 percent. Too little, too late, Mr. Geithner testified last week.

    Ultimately, says Jeffrey A. Frieden, a Harvard political scientist, exchange rates reflect broader macroeconomic forces. For the dollar to get back in sync, Americans must save and invest more and consume and borrow less, and the Chinese, Germans and Japanese have to recognize that excessive reliance on exports is not to their long-run advantage.

    “It’s conceivable that the Chinese might conclude it’s in their own self-interest to let the currency rise,” Professor Frieden said, “but it’s not going to come from browbeating and it’s not even going to come from well-meaning attempts at cooperation.”
     

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