Chinese GDP according to my estimates

hantangsongming

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My friend, apparently, you have miserably failed to understand the thread. Chinese GDP itself is in dispute, what worth is this % comparison ....?
China's GDP is suspected by an Indian, who cares? the data from CIA and world bank itself is an prove for China's real GDP.
it's enough, keep disputing on this issue with part of the indians is an insult to my IQ, or lowering down my IQ to the level of Indian's,
inferior, dark skin people.
 

bose

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The Chinese economic indicators are all manipulated by CCP to give a false impression to world that it is doing well, actually the economy is in bad shape"¦ there should be independent authority to measure the economic indicators"¦ else best is to ignore Chinese CCP propaganda"¦
 

TrueSpirit

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level of Indian's, inferior, dark skin people.
:rofl::rofl:

Though your post is not worth commenting upon (especially, our Chinese friends on DFI would be ashamed of your severely handicapped intellectual capacity) & I hope the forum owners see to it, but I would say that you have a limited idea about Indians, overall.

I doubt if your hallowed complexion (yellow, right ? ) is paler than certain Indians on DFI...
 
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bose

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China's GDP is suspected by an Indian, who cares? the data from CIA and world bank itself is an prove for China's real GDP.
it's enough, keep disputing on this issue with part of the indians is an insult to my IQ, or lowering down my IQ to the level of Indian's,
inferior, dark skin people.
So genius!! and high IQ Chinese what are you doing here in an Indian forum ?? Go find out some white guy to sell your women in the cities of Shanghai... We have seen how your women folks are so egger to sell their body for few dollars"¦

We Indians have also seen Chinese capability in Nanjin and Manchuria"¦ capitulating in front of Japanese"¦ go and figure how many of yours are half Japanese"¦
 

t_co

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The Chinese economic indicators are all manipulated by CCP to give a false impression to world that it is doing well, actually the economy is in bad shape"¦ there should be independent authority to measure the economic indicators"¦ else best is to ignore Chinese CCP propaganda"¦
Why would the CCP even care about showing the world that it is doing well? What is the tangible benefit?
 

t_co

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Fitch rates France AAA while China has been downgraded to A-... three slots above junk bonds. :rofl:
For all those French youth who are unemployed, I'm betting they'd rather their government load up on some more debt to create work for them rather than stay clean with a high and mighty debt rating...
 

Payeng

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---- u, u black monkey, see now I am not copying u, are u satisfied? lMAO.
I just wanted to show everyone how stupid u r.
U started this, u need to end it
You stupid mother ----er.
I know you want to show that how stupid an Indian maybe but ended up being yourself a low grade human being trying to use harsh words related to wife, mother, etc etc :blah::blah: when you are loosing the debate, and frankly do you think I am buying your personal attacks :der: fart as much in the open air and enjoy the smell your self with no buyers :bplease:

I pointed out you low grade post demanding explanation and you showed up your frustration with unsuccessful attempt referring my wife...etc etc. while in fact you even dont know if I am married or not and so, when you got nothing left to puke out, trying to burst out every vulgars maybe indicating your own mother, because son failed to win the debate or forward any valid justification of what have been quoted.

Just think why I did not retaliated, targeting you mother etc etc. (more over I m not sure if you a ghey, lesbo or an impotent, not at all interested) because I am no looser mentality like you are :truestory:

With nothing left to quote, begging me to end this, a sheer Mr. looser mentality chinese.

No I wont stop, try hard Mr. looser mentality do not run away :nono: stop your cheap bashing upon mother,wife :blah: because I wont buy them :truestory:

Make a logical reply Mr. Looser Mentality ragon to win this debate.
 

Armand2REP

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My friend, apparently, you have miserably failed to understand the thread. Chinese GDP itself is in dispute, what worth is this % comparison ....?
So true! Chinese GDP is over reported by 30% making real GDP less than Japan. With real debt almost 400% of GDP. Do you see the reality yet. It was already revealed Chinese exports and car sales were inflated, everything is fake.
 

Compersion

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What's wrong with that. They are sitting pretty comfortably. They might loose some value but its still worth more compared to 1990s. I also dont see a overthrow of their leadership In near future (their citizens aint got the mojo). also they are having tall buildings, long bridges, fast trains, the Olympics, the space programme, aggressive foreign policy, Hong Kong, macau, Fortune 500 companies, etc etc. what's wrong with that. In fact other countries ought to follow prc. I don't know how can a country can have all those things while faking what's really going on. Who's the bigger fool. The prc - the rest of the world... so what prc makes up stuff and hides what's really going on, everything is rosy for prc.
 

no smoking

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Hong Kong is a economy that the prc depends on for legitimacy.
So, you mean that PRC was not legitimated before 1997?

If you can research for me the amount of prc companies that are listed on the hang seng a intellectual would ask me why are they listed in Hong Kong and not shanghai. It's the same why are prc companies listed in USA like NYSE. Think about it. Use the analogy I placed earlier.
How about: there is too much restriction on foreign invsters in Shanghai stock market. So if any Chinese company want to attract foreign money, it can only get in overseas market!

What does this mean. Prc has just placed Hong Kong is a situation as its currency is pegged to the usd. And why would that be a problem. Think about it. Also if china mobile is worth 1 billion today instead of 50 billion yesterday would that matter to you. It's getting valued in usd think about it. Before it was not.
First, Hong Kong's currency is pegged to USD$ long before 1997, so it is not PRC's decision, it is Hongkong's own decision.
Second, it matters to Chinese gov. Since it is the owner of this China mobile, any depreciation of its share value, no matter it is traded in Hongkong or New York, it matters to its owner.

Next I had a useful reference earlier from your compatriots about financial wizardry implemented in Nazi Germany, which saw the country being transformed from a basketcase in 1933 to Europe's strongest economy by 1938. I refer the post link: http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...g-us-s-hurting-all-us-badly-4.html#post761958
Not sure if its useful here and what is socialisim but please think about it. I have not made a judgement yet as I am still analysing but the prc statistics like electricity use are pointless because no one knows what's really going on there. The really statistics are in the banking systems and for obvious reason there will be no audit there.
Well, if you already start to compare Nazi economy with PRC's, then my friend, you should drop you analysis, it is really beyond your knowledge.

Also Yes there is rapid infrastructure and many social events that have heralded development for the prc citizens. But the west is going to ask prc to free up the exchange rate (if not Hong Kong will get focused on). This is where the prc holds some cards the yuan is pegged. Once it starts to free flow that's when the pandora box opens. Why is there resistance.
Since 2007, RMB already appreciated more than 25%, do you take that as a free up the exchange rate?
If yes, then what happened?
If not, then how can the west force PRC to free up NOW after unsuccessful attempt in past decades?

I'm open to your thoughts because I know the prc knows what's really going on. Also they won't allow the west and others to dictate to them what to do. But in this globalised world we live in I don't even know what's going to happen. My mind springs to Hong Kong because its in the middle and it ought to realiise how valuable and important it is to prc. Yuan money flow (some refer to recycling) happens significantly in Hong Kong - this helps in creation of yuan legitimacy (that is being printed freely) in international trade and management of trade balances with other nations as well as balance sheets of many prc companies.
Oh, please, my friend, you need go back to school! RMB doesn't need HongKong to help its legitimacy in international trade because it has no legitimacy in international trade. It is not a international currency. HongKong is helping in management of China's foreign reserve not RMB. Chinese banks can reject any mass RMB payment from HK or any overseas companies unless there is a specific deal!

So, my friend, you undstand about HK's financial role in China is WRONG!

With reference to Indian economy we have given prc a lot of lessons on what not to do. Yes we play by the rules with the west but we question is it worth it. We look at you guys and think thats aint fair. The prc doesn't play by the rules yet its out there with a broad chest. Only giving by 60 rupees worth here. Open to debate.
Well, my friend, whatever Chinese companies are doing out there is worth nothing over here, because you don't get anything from their activities and they don't care what you think.
 

redragon

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I know you want to show that how stupid an Indian maybe but ended up being yourself a low grade human being trying to use harsh words related to wife, mother, etc etc :blah::blah: when you are loosing the debate, and frankly do you think I am buying your personal attacks :der: fart as much in the open air and enjoy the smell your self with no buyers :bplease:

I pointed out you low grade post demanding explanation and you showed up your frustration with unsuccessful attempt referring my wife...etc etc. while in fact you even dont know if I am married or not and so, when you got nothing left to puke out, trying to burst out every vulgars maybe indicating your own mother, because son failed to win the debate or forward any valid justification of what have been quoted.

Just think why I did not retaliated, targeting you
mother etc etc. (more over I m not sure if you a ghey, lesbo or an impotent, not at all interested) because I am no looser mentality like you are :truestory:

With nothing left to quote, begging me to end this, a sheer Mr. looser mentality chinese.

No I wont stop, try hard Mr. looser mentality do not run away :nono: stop your cheap bashing upon mother,wife :blah: because I wont buy them :truestory:

Make a logical reply Mr. Looser Mentality ragon to win this debate.
Let's see who wants to stop this, u low caste fagot.


For a starter let it be me.
We will not allow caste based insults and let's be clear about that.
More so, since you know nothing of the same.
Ray
 
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Srinivas_K

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India has a business model?

Also, you still haven't explained why you shaved 3%, as opposed to 1 or 5 or 10, in fact. You haven't justified your numbers at all :lol:
It is actually Manufacturing policy.

This is rough estimation I deducted 1% from infra, 1% from exports and 1 % from consumption. I am generous here.
 

Compersion

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Well, my friend, whatever Chinese companies are doing out there is worth nothing over here, because you don't get anything from their activities and they don't care what you think.
Thanks for reply (with apologies i don't know how to quote the boxes like you did). Also it's good to have a discussion with you to understand what you think. I think all the writers here will realise that at the end of the day PRC citizens will make their point and we can make our points. Sometimes it's good because no one knows what their point is. We can have a good conversation because Indian people actually what to know whats going on in PRC. Also please don't take everything personally and try to reply with reasoning. Its good to have a healthy debate.

Re. So, you mean that PRC was not legitimated before 1997?

I would say that yes PRC is more legitimate compared to before 1997. My sense is that PRC before 1997 is not the same as compared to 2013. Whats the difference. The answer is USD and HKD (basically USD because of HKD) as well as its role in PRC stability and legitimacy. The PRC leaders legitimacy is not that they have a beautiful building in Beijing. It is the fact that the beautiful building can be shown to the outsider. (Just do a google search of North Korea capital and my point might hit you – its beautiful but whats the point). And this is huge difference because it has allowed PRC citizens and government to expand its reach much before what it was before 1997. Probably because before 1997 the PRC did not have the guts to handle Hong Kong like they are doing now.

Re. How about: there is too much restriction on foreign invsters in Shanghai stock market. So if any Chinese company want to attract foreign money, it can only get in overseas market!

I ask you a question. Say you are rich in PRC. If not say you have a rich boss (basically connected enough to trade into hong kong). In fact if you have a boss asks him if he has been to hong kong (without the tour package) what he did. You - he will use RMB and buy a property in Hong Kong and not in Shanghai. Why. (Try to ignore the analysis of what the RMB would do after it enters hong kong – basically be recycled). The average citizen in PRC might buy a flat in their own city if not Shanghai. We can also use the analogy of trading. There are PRC people that trade in Hang Seng. There are PRC companies that list on the Hang Seng.

Now say there is a market crash and the property in Shanghai is worth (2 million RMB you had bought it at 10 million RMB). The hong kong property with the rich guy is worth (2 million HKD (approx. 250K USD – because of the HKD peg) originally bought it at 10 million HKD. Ask yourself why the rich and political class are buying into Hong Kong and not locally. Its for legitimacy. Its worth something. Its what the North Koreans cannot do. I have heard some friends say that it is also an insurance for the political class in case the potty (sh*t) hits the fan. They have also said Hong Kongs risk profile is increasing day by day due to PRC investments (more on that later).

Re. First, Hong Kong's currency is pegged to USD$ long before 1997, so it is not PRC's decision, it is Hongkong's own decision.
Second, it matters to Chinese gov. Since it is the owner of this China mobile, any depreciation of its share value, no matter it is traded in Hongkong or New York, it matters to its owner.

You forget that the HKD peg to the USD before 1997 was with the British in charge. Any attack on the HKD peg would have no consequence to Britain before 1997 (in fact even now). After 1997 the HKD peg to the USD is technical jargon but in totality there will be huge consequence to Hong Kong people and also PRC if it is stretched (attacked). Stretched in the sense people will figure out whats really going on in the PRC and as you agree there is a huge PRC fingerprint in Hong Kong especially the Hang Seng, Banking System and Property market. Hong Kong is the condom the PRC has used on the world after 1997. Do you know how easy it is to open an office in hong kong. Also do you know how easy is it is to close an office in hong kong. Replace the word "office" with anything related to economic activity. And I am not talking about PRC here I am talking with reference to other entities and international players.

Also with reference to China Mobile you will be surprised how low the value in USD (HKD) would be acceptable to the owners. Its playing out in front of your eyes as we speak. Replace China Mobile with other listed companies.

Re. Well, if you already start to compare Nazi economy with PRC's, then my friend, you should drop you analysis, it is really beyond your knowledge.

I agree it is probably not much out there because no one knows whats really going on in PRC. But you have said the RMB is not an international currency at this moment also no one knows where the currency is printed and how much is printed. Also why don't you and your fellow citizens compare the financial wizardry implemented in Nazi Germany, which saw the country being transformed from a basketcase in 1933 to Europe's strongest economy by 1938, to what is happening in PRC at this moment. Also it is a fact that Nazi Germany became aggressive in its territorial disputes with its neighbours after 1933 and also targeted minorities and also had strong propaganda influence during that time over its own citizens. Probably if one looks at the bigger picture there are a lot of comparisons. But lets focus on the economic part here. Would like your analysis if you can develop one.

Re. Since 2007, RMB already appreciated more than 25%, do you take that as a free up the exchange rate?
If yes, then what happened?
If not, then how can the west force PRC to free up NOW after unsuccessful attempt in past decades?

Say I have a trade surplus of 1 USD with you before 2007. That is equivalent to 10 RMB before 2007. Your exchange rate has appreciated 25% now. That means my trade surplus with you is 25% less as you will get 6.3 RMB (whatever the rate is now) am I right. Because I only need to trade with you 1 USD not 10 RMB (I might still be holding that 1 USD). The appreciation of PRC currency would work if the country was net importer. But PRC is an export oriented economy. That means your exports are now more expensive. The appreciation helped out the PRC huge trading partners. Since RMB is not freely traded there was an automatic discount for doing "¦ nothing. What ought to have happen is the PRC ought to have gone and invested in those countries (you know imported). But that did not happen due to opposition from the local population of PRC and also your huge trading partners. And the biggest gainer was whom think about it. Because my friends tell me the cost of manufacturing has come down in PRC (in USD) after the PRC currency appreciated (that is a phenomenon that can only happen in PRC). Do you ever ask why PRC has those USD treasury bills. It's a sword not a shield.

Also why would a country be willing to give up the sweat of its hard working people that had worked so hard to achieve. For legitimacy. The USD and America relationship provides legitimacy to PRC. An update to this is the sphere of legitimacy for PRC (rebalance like they say) is moving now away from USA to South China Region (and Hong Kong is in the middle). The question my friends ask me - is the sweat of the people of the PRC worth 25% more is it 25% less compared to before. Now measure it in USD and HKD and RMB. Remember what I said - the cost of manufacturing has come down in PRC (in USD). The cost of materials has come down (in USD). Whats the price of coal, aluminium, gold, etc etc now compared to before (in USD). I admit this might be a little beyond me as I am not an economist. But would like your opinion on this.

Re. Oh, please, my friend, you need go back to school! RMB doesn't need HongKong to help its legitimacy in international trade because it has no legitimacy in international trade. It is not a international currency. HongKong is helping in management of China's foreign reserve not RMB. Chinese banks can reject any mass RMB payment from HK or any overseas companies unless there is a specific deal! So, my friend, you undstand about HK's financial role in China is WRONG!

I really hope for the well-being of Hong Kong people you are right. The question will not come from Hong Kong people it will come from the countries that have investments and involvement in Hong Kong. Because if the PRC currency does not free flow the Hong Kong currency will have to do that for you. And the Hong Kong currency is traded internationally. That's why Hong Kong will never be replaced by Shanghai.

Re. Well, my friend, whatever Chinese companies are doing out there is worth nothing over here, because you don't get anything from their activities and they don't care what you think.

That's cool. I was only saying its not fair that India plays by the rules while we watch PRC walk around with its broad chest cheating. Also it is worth noting here because in international trade when a re-balance happens there are opportunities for others.
 
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no smoking

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Thanks for reply (with apologies i don't know how to quote the boxes like you did). Also it's good to have a discussion with you to understand what you think. I think all the writers here will realise that at the end of the day PRC citizens will make their point and we can make our points. Sometimes it's good because no one knows what their point is. We can have a good conversation because Indian people actually what to know whats going on in PRC. Also please don't take everything personally and try to reply with reasoning. Its good to have a healthy debate.
My friend, glad to have a healthy discussion with an indian who has a cool head.

I would say that yes PRC is more legitimate compared to before 1997. My sense is that PRC before 1997 is not the same as compared to 2013. Whats the difference. The answer is USD and HKD (basically USD because of HKD) as well as its role in PRC stability and legitimacy. The PRC leaders legitimacy is not that they have a beautiful building in Beijing. It is the fact that the beautiful building can be shown to the outsider. (Just do a google search of North Korea capital and my point might hit you – its beautiful but whats the point). And this is huge difference because it has allowed PRC citizens and government to expand its reach much before what it was before 1997. Probably because before 1997 the PRC did not have the guts to handle Hong Kong like they are doing now.
Well, that is what you think. But I believe Chinese population is the one having the final say on that.
PRC was legitimate because PLA stopped american's advance in Korea;
PRC was legitimate because first time in last 100 years Chinese had enough food to eat and enough cloths to wear (even great forward leap or cultural revolution looks pale comparing to their sufferings before 1949).
PRC was legitimate because they built thousands of factories and labs, universities, pushing this country from 17 century into 20 century in 30 years.
PRC was legitimate because for the first in 130 years, they forced UK (once super power) to surrender its land to China.
In one word: they are leeitmate because they make their promise come true.

HK is an asset to PRC for sure, but it was far more valuable before 1997 and its importance was even greater before 1978. It was the only international trade window for Chinese before 1978 and It was the number one foreign investment source to China before 1997. But all these are already gone because Chinese don't need them that much. On the contrary, HK's prospect is depending on mainland now.

A Bilateral Trade Agreement Between Hong Kong and China: CEPA

Read it! If HK is so powerful, then it shouldn't need mainland's help at all. But they need it and mainland have to help due to political reason.

Re. How about: there is too much restriction on foreign invsters in Shanghai stock market. So if any Chinese company want to attract foreign money, it can only get in overseas market!

I ask you a question. Say you are rich in PRC. If not say you have a rich boss (basically connected enough to trade into hong kong). In fact if you have a boss asks him if he has been to hong kong (without the tour package) what he did. You - he will use RMB and buy a property in Hong Kong and not in Shanghai. Why. (Try to ignore the analysis of what the RMB would do after it enters hong kong – basically be recycled). The average citizen in PRC might buy a flat in their own city if not Shanghai. We can also use the analogy of trading. There are PRC people that trade in Hang Seng. There are PRC companies that list on the Hang Seng.

Now say there is a market crash and the property in Shanghai is worth (2 million RMB you had bought it at 10 million RMB). The hong kong property with the rich guy is worth (2 million HKD (approx. 250K USD – because of the HKD peg) originally bought it at 10 million HKD. Ask yourself why the rich and political class are buying into Hong Kong and not locally. Its for legitimacy. Its worth something. Its what the North Koreans cannot do. I have heard some friends say that it is also an insurance for the political class in case the potty (sh*t) hits the fan. They have also said Hong Kongs risk profile is increasing day by day due to PRC investments (more on that later).
There are lots of Hong Kong citizens and even americans, Japaneses are buying properties in China, so China make US or Japan legitimacy?
The fact is: these Chinese rich do buy house or other properties locally, a lot! The reason they buy property in HK is the same reason those foreigners owing property in China: diversifying their investment.

Re. First, Hong Kong's currency is pegged to USD$ long before 1997, so it is not PRC's decision, it is Hongkong's own decision.
Second, it matters to Chinese gov. Since it is the owner of this China mobile, any depreciation of its share value, no matter it is traded in Hongkong or New York, it matters to its owner.

You forget that the HKD peg to the USD before 1997 was with the British in charge. Any attack on the HKD peg would have no consequence to Britain before 1997 (in fact even now). After 1997 the HKD peg to the USD is technical jargon but in totality there will be huge consequence to Hong Kong people and also PRC if it is stretched (attacked). Stretched in the sense people will figure out whats really going on in the PRC and as you agree there is a huge PRC fingerprint in Hong Kong especially the Hang Seng, Banking System and Property market. Hong Kong is the condom the PRC has used on the world after 1997. Do you know how easy it is to open an office in hong kong. Also do you know how easy is it is to close an office in hong kong. Replace the word "office" with anything related to economic activity. And I am not talking about PRC here I am talking with reference to other entities and international players.
Still, Pegging HKD to USD is HK's decision not Chinese. And the reason China come to save HK in 1998, it is not for its currency but for its economy.

Also with reference to China Mobile you will be surprised how low the value in USD (HKD) would be acceptable to the owners. Its playing out in front of your eyes as we speak. Replace China Mobile with other listed companies.
That is decided by market, I don't see what else!

Re. Well, if you already start to compare Nazi economy with PRC's, then my friend, you should drop you analysis, it is really beyond your knowledge.

I agree it is probably not much out there because no one knows whats really going on in PRC. But you have said the RMB is not an international currency at this moment also no one knows where the currency is printed and how much is printed. Also why don't you and your fellow citizens compare the financial wizardry implemented in Nazi Germany, which saw the country being transformed from a basketcase in 1933 to Europe's strongest economy by 1938, to what is happening in PRC at this moment.
German was already No.2 industry country before WW1, the war didn't wipe out its factories, labs and millions of skilled workers. It just lacked cash in 1933 (actually everyone was short of cash at that time). What was China in 1949? An agricultural country, even india had far more industry production than it. So, again, you are comparing orange to apple.

Also it is a fact that Nazi Germany became aggressive in its territorial disputes with its neighbours after 1933 and also targeted minorities and also had strong propaganda influence during that time over its own citizens. Probably if one looks at the bigger picture there are a lot of comparisons. But lets focus on the economic part here. Would like your analysis if you can develop one.
First, the territorial disputes were already there and never settled before 1933.
Second, Jews was racial problem in German while Tibetans/Uyghur was political and religious problem which can be tracked back hundreds years.

Re. Since 2007, RMB already appreciated more than 25%, do you take that as a free up the exchange rate?
If yes, then what happened?
If not, then how can the west force PRC to free up NOW after unsuccessful attempt in past decades?

Say I have a trade surplus of 1 USD with you before 2007. That is equivalent to 10 RMB before 2007. Your exchange rate has appreciated 25% now. That means my trade surplus with you is 25% less as you will get 6.3 RMB (whatever the rate is now) am I right. Because I only need to trade with you 1 USD not 10 RMB (I might still be holding that 1 USD). The appreciation of PRC currency would work if the country was net importer. But PRC is an export oriented economy. That means your exports are now more expensive. The appreciation helped out the PRC huge trading partners. Since RMB is not freely traded there was an automatic discount for doing "¦ nothing.
The fact is: China did appreciate its currency a lot and its products did become expensive a lot, but it turns that the huge trading partners didn't benefit a lot from this appreciation. So, it tells you that currency value is not that important. Basically, Chinese model is importing raw material and foreign parts, then turn them into final products and export them. So, Chinese products will become expensive temperally, but then goes down again since its imported material will become cheaper after RMB goes up. Now, you can see why RMB appreciation will not save China's trading partner. Only China completely change its economic model can do that, which is giving up export orientation.


What ought to have happen is the PRC ought to have gone and invested in those countries (you know imported). But that did not happen due to opposition from the local population of PRC and also your huge trading partners. And the biggest gainer was whom think about it. Because my friends tell me the cost of manufacturing has come down in PRC (in USD) after the PRC currency appreciated (that is a phenomenon that can only happen in PRC). Do you ever ask why PRC has those USD treasury bills. It's a sword not a shield.


The matter of fact is that China is investing in those countries even there is opposition in local.
Another fact is buying US treasury bills is a kind of investment and it is a double edge sword which combined US and China economy together. You can't hurt one economy without hurting yourself.

Also why would a country be willing to give up the sweat of its hard working people that had worked so hard to achieve. For legitimacy. The USD and America relationship provides legitimacy to PRC. An update to this is the sphere of legitimacy for PRC (rebalance like they say) is moving now away from USA to South China Region (and Hong Kong is in the middle). The question my friends ask me - is the sweat of the people of the PRC worth 25% more is it 25% less compared to before.
It is not legitimacy, my friend, it is creditabilityof your currency!
Is there any companies outside south asia would accept rupee as the payment to their products? I don't think there is much! So can we say Was India's legitimacy is depend on USD?
there any companies outside China would accept RMB as the payment to their products before 2003? Probaly none. Why now there are lots of companies would aggree to accept RMB? South China Region provides better legitimacy than USA for China? I don't think so. I don't think so. The only reason is RMB was useless to most of international producers before. And now they can use RMB recieved to buy lots of products from China. In other words, they have confidence in RMB now.

The question my friends ask me - is the sweat of the people of the PRC worth 25% more is it 25% less compared to before.
Then you can ask your friend: does the people of PRC is living better or worse than before.

Now measure it in USD and HKD and RMB. Remember what I said - the cost of manufacturing has come down in PRC (in USD). The cost of materials has come down (in USD). Whats the price of coal, aluminium, gold, etc etc now compared to before (in USD). I admit this might be a little beyond me as I am not an economist. But would like your opinion on this.
Well, the labour cost is going up (in USD)--RMB wage is growing 10%-15% since 2000 and RMB is appreciating;
the equipment cost is going down (in USD & RMB)--China's manufacturing covering is expanding;
procssing cost is going down (in USD & RMB)---Chinese workers and manager skill is improving;
logistic cost is going down (in USD & RMB)---better infrastructures and new technologies;
overhead is going down (in RMB)---better training stuffs and better R&D infrastructures;
Material cost is going down (in RMB & USD)--as RMB depreciating

Now you can see why manufacturing cost is going when RMB is going up.

Re. Oh, please, my friend, you need go back to school! RMB doesn't need HongKong to help its legitimacy in international trade because it has no legitimacy in international trade. It is not a international currency. HongKong is helping in management of China's foreign reserve not RMB. Chinese banks can reject any mass RMB payment from HK or any overseas companies unless there is a specific deal! So, my friend, you undstand about HK's financial role in China is WRONG!

I really hope for the well-being of Hong Kong people you are right. The question will not come from Hong Kong people it will come from the countries that have investments and involvement in Hong Kong. Because if the PRC currency does not free flow the Hong Kong currency will have to do that for you. And the Hong Kong currency is traded internationally. That's why Hong Kong will never be replaced by Shanghai.
Only if HK's currency is freely trading with RMB, but it not! You can spend any HKD in mainland without permission of Chinese gov. Economically, HK is a foreign territory to mainland.

Re. Well, my friend, whatever Chinese companies are doing out there is worth nothing over here, because you don't get anything from their activities and they don't care what you think.

That's cool. I was only saying its not fair that India plays by the rules while we watch PRC walk around with its broad chest cheating. Also it is worth noting here because in international trade when a re-balance happens there are opportunities for others.
There is nothing fair or unfair. It is all about choice and concequence. 60 years ago, Chinese choose to go through the painful industrilization while indians choose to skip this stage. Now 2 countries are receiving different results: China can choose to not play by the rules unless west re-negotiate it while india can't afford.

Certainly, you can wait for next round of re-balancing, but you are not necessarily the winner when the opportunity comes. Actually india had a better chance to be a winner 60 years ago but you blow it; you have another opportunity 30 years, you blow it again; now, the third opportunity is here, and you are blowing it.
 

Compersion

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There is nothing fair or unfair. It is all about choice and concequence. 60 years ago, Chinese choose to go through the painful industrilization while indians choose to skip this stage. Now 2 countries are receiving different results: China can choose to not play by the rules unless west re-negotiate it while india can't afford.

Certainly, you can wait for next round of re-balancing, but you are not necessarily the winner when the opportunity comes. Actually india had a better chance to be a winner 60 years ago but you blow it; you have another opportunity 30 years, you blow it again; now, the third opportunity is here, and you are blowing it.
My friend, glad to have a healthy discussion with an indian who has a cool head.
Thats coool its also good to talking with you and understanding the reasoning behind you expressing your views. i only wish you the best ahead. also its good people (in the middle) that can read both our views and make a judgement. would be great to hear more about your personal views. I am trying to use quotations for the first time. If it messes up my fault.

Well, that is what you think. But I believe Chinese population is the one having the final say on that.
You might be correct on that one. One must not discount the importance of showing off to your local populace to maintain stability. Like a maglev in shanghai - What do you think about that and did you have a final say on that.

PRC was legitimate because PLA stopped american's advance in Korea;
Thats a lot of killing to get legitimacy and whats the current state in Korea peninsula for PRC legitimacy. Whats the difference between North Korea legitimacy and PRC legitimacy.

PRC was legitimate because first time in last 100 years Chinese had enough food to eat and enough cloths to wear (even great forward leap or cultural revolution looks pale comparing to their sufferings before 1949).
Thats scary for you to have such thoughts. I really wish no one has such thoughts but people do and its a reality and its more to do with your patriotism towards being a Chinese compared with the objective view and history of PRC. Wish nothing like the cultural revolution is happening as we speak in PRC. but we would not know.

PRC was legitimate because they built thousands of factories and labs, universities, pushing this country from 17 century into 20 century in 30 years.
Got to give that to you. When you are about to being fired sometimes you pull up your socks (some say Gujarat did the same). In that way Chinese population did make a difference. But that fear the PRC citizens population created in 1989 is big difference now (which is different from Gujarat and Indian people). a bit like like impotency - certain part dont work but your mind works thats okay with some stress. also did the leaders do to that for your betterment - i would have to say yes. i really cannot analyse it more because no one knows whats really going on in the prc now.

PRC was legitimate because for the first in 130 years, they forced UK (once super power) to surrender its land to China.
In one word: they are leeitmate because they make their promise come true.
UK did not surrender its land to PRC. i admit they were threatened with harmful force projection like PRC is doing with many of its neighbors and in the region currently. but the UK arent fearful of PRC and negotiated with PRC on what happened to Hong Kong - they must have asked for something in value to give land to PRC. you will hear more from UK about hong kong internal affairs (its their right technically - PRC signed a agreement with them). Would like to have your analysis on this:

Basic law - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Tell me one thing. In a contract if you do not keep your word to the agreement what happens. Do you return the goods. In this case hong kong people might
be talking like you and i and asking whats going on. what do the people of hong kong want. have you been to hong kong. what do you think of that place.

HK is an asset to PRC for sure, but it was far more valuable before 1997 and its importance was even greater before 1978. It was the only international trade window for Chinese before 1978 and It was the number one foreign investment source to China before 1997. But all these are already gone because Chinese don't need them that much. On the contrary, HK's prospect is depending on mainland now.

A Bilateral Trade Agreement Between Hong Kong and China: CEPA

Read it! If HK is so powerful, then it shouldn't need mainland's help at all. But they need it and mainland have to help due to political reason.
a friend had told me about that before that and it was signed very quickly after 1997. my simple answer is can you as a normal PRC citizen enter freely and invest like the hong kong people can enter and invest. who needs the other more. going to hong kong in tour groups to spend cash is not the same as hong kong people coming into PRC. whats the value of PRC compared to Hong Kong citizen. dont fool yourself to think one mainlander leaving hong kong is the same as one hong kong leaving PRC. Your leaders bend backwards to get that. You can also include Taiwan (ROC) i think there is a similar deal to CEPA with them. You need Hong Kong and it will never replace shanghai. Whats the PRC position on Hong Kong do they want to make it worse to increase the importance of Shanghai (which they might be doing). Also Taiwan is a bit like Hong Kong but they might be a step ahead of Hong Kong. Wonder where the Taiwan factories will go. But PRC might threaten them to prevent that happening. Thats the focus of relationship of PRC with Taiwan (ROC) and Hong Kong. Prevent such entities from ever leaving even through threats.

There are lots of Hong Kong citizens and even americans, Japaneses are buying properties in China, so China make US or Japan legitimacy?
The fact is: these Chinese rich do buy house or other properties locally, a lot! The reason they buy property in HK is the same reason those foreigners owing property in China: diversifying their investment.
I cannot comment on the PRC property market. I wish that PRC property buyers are more from USA (we can also take Japan - do you like them - hate them i forget) and not from North Korea and Pakistan. Also the PRC leaders and political class will go wherever they can buy property it is not for diversification its to provide PRC legitimacy. In fact PRC is trying to enter the (high end) USA property. It must feel good from them to buy property in USA like in Hong Kong. Which they were not able to do before 1997 like they are doing now. Also diversification is done for what. How many of your PRC leaders have property overseas.


Still, Pegging HKD to USD is HK's decision not Chinese. And the reason China come to save HK in 1998, it is not for its currency but for its economy.
Like i said the PRC needs Hong Kong more compared to Hong Kong needs PRC. But how do you define "save" hong kong. The leader of Hong Kong in 1998 was hand-picked by your leaders and made decisions that made the property crash and financial crisis hit hong kong to make PRC step in. PRC stepping ins was more symbolically done after hong kong did all the hard work (government financial intervention into the stock and currency market). It was a pretty expensive symbolical hedge and has PRC recovered the losses. What do you think about the current leader of hong kong (handpicked again by PRC).

That is decided by market, I don't see what else!
If it was decided by the market the rebound in the market would have been higher. look at the charts. also why was there a rebound in hong kong but not in ... PRC stock markets. are you able to discuss that. hang seng stock market compared to PRC stock market.

German was already No.2 industry country before WW1, the war didn't wipe out its factories, labs and millions of skilled workers. It just lacked cash in 1933 (actually everyone was short of cash at that time). What was China in 1949? An agricultural country, even india had far more industry production than it. So, again, you are comparing orange to apple.
my only concern is that where does PRC get all its money from. i mean you guys have just been on a huge binge of urban infrastructure development unheard of and its like buying 10 televisions for a house where only two people live (people from outside are asking how). where is PRC printing and making the money from. i mean literally and figuratively. For example the troops of the PRC PLA must be paid. is that accounted. are you giving the soldiers currency that is a bit like that labor treasury certificates - disguised to be currency. can you give me some statistics to discount that. in fact my worry is that PRC is printing currency (the government knows but wont tell anyone) that is legit not fake and is giving it to state enterprises (repeatedly) and it end up eventually in the banking system. and the use of hong kong is making it more legit.

First, the territorial disputes were already there and never settled before 1933.
Second, Jews was racial problem in German while Tibetans/Uyghur was political and religious problem which can be tracked back hundreds years.
Just like wisdom and maturity was giving to you from India. Over a thousand of years. And long that it will continue. (sorry could not resist its a fact). Chinese people have also come to India to seek wisdom and maturity - they have traveled west. With respect to what you mention (and you can use that against me) history needs to be viewed in terms of effect, weight-age, and validity due to laws and equity (what is right). just like Kashmir. can you tell me how pakistan ceded kashmir territory to PRC. Some of my friends thank you for that. Because it shows show much Pakistan values Kashmir land and people as they will give it up. (forget that it might divert from the topic).


The fact is: China did appreciate its currency a lot and its products did become expensive a lot, but it turns that the huge trading partners didn't benefit a lot from this appreciation. So, it tells you that currency value is not that important. Basically, Chinese model is importing raw material and foreign parts, then turn them into final products and export them. So, Chinese products will become expensive temperally, but then goes down again since its imported material will become cheaper after RMB goes up. Now, you can see why RMB appreciation will not save China's trading partner. Only China completely change its economic model can do that, which is giving up export orientation.
Apologies i do not have much to add on that. All i know is the Americans wont allow you to appreciate your currency unless it benefits them. And now they want you PRC make it freely trade-able.

The matter of fact is that China is investing in those countries even there is opposition in local.
Another fact is buying US treasury bills is a kind of investment and it is a double edge sword which combined US and China economy together. You can't hurt one economy without hurting yourself.
Got to give that to you. But look at the recent US financial crisis. They were able to afford huge billion dollar hit. Think about that. Also bankruptcy is that a double edge sword. Is it a good thing - bad thing. Can you share with me what PRC does with bankruptcy.

It is not legitimacy, my friend, it is creditabilityof your currency!
Is there any companies outside south asia would accept rupee as the payment to their products? I don't think there is much! So can we say Was India's legitimacy is depend on USD?
there any companies outside China would accept RMB as the payment to their products before 2003? Probaly none. Why now there are lots of companies would aggree to accept RMB? South China Region provides better legitimacy than USA for China? I don't think so. I don't think so. The only reason is RMB was useless to most of international producers before. And now they can use RMB recieved to buy lots of products from China. In other words, they have confidence in RMB now.
You have just supported my viewpoint. Its for legitimacy. I bring in the labor treasury certificates here. You are trying to covert those into legitimate notes. INR Rupee the last I checked can be accepted all over the world and traded freely. You have "more" countries. But what happens when its "all" countries that accept RMB. The Americans know what they are doing they got some really smart people there dont doubt that. I wonder what Russia is thinking about PRC. Whats the difference between Russia in 1989 and PRC 2013.

Then you can ask your friend: does the people of PRC is living better or worse than before.
Its better in terms of PRC RMB money and the integration of capitalistic influences for individuals. But socially and politically not sure. Would like your thoughts on that. But I will give it PRC is better today.

Well, the labour cost is going up (in USD)--RMB wage is growing 10%-15% since 2000 and RMB is appreciating;
the equipment cost is going down (in USD & RMB)--China's manufacturing covering is expanding;
procssing cost is going down (in USD & RMB)---Chinese workers and manager skill is improving;
logistic cost is going down (in USD & RMB)---better infrastructures and new technologies;
overhead is going down (in RMB)---better training stuffs and better R&D infrastructures;
Material cost is going down (in RMB & USD)--as RMB depreciating

Now you can see why manufacturing cost is going when RMB is going up.
RMB manufacturing cost is going down. The cost of manufacturing a plastic bucket from PRC is cheaper in RMB compared to 2 years ago. Would like your analysis why a plastic bucket costs less to manufacture in RMB.

Only if HK's currency is freely trading with RMB, but it not! You can spend any HKD in mainland without permission of Chinese gov. Economically, HK is a foreign territory to mainland.
Would be good to do a audit and figure that out. I wonder who will ask.

There is nothing fair or unfair. It is all about choice and concequence. 60 years ago, Chinese choose to go through the painful industrilization while indians choose to skip this stage. Now 2 countries are receiving different results: China can choose to not play by the rules unless west re-negotiate it while india can't afford.

Certainly, you can wait for next round of re-balancing, but you are not necessarily the winner when the opportunity comes. Actually india had a better chance to be a winner 60 years ago but you blow it; you have another opportunity 30 years, you blow it again; now, the third opportunity is here, and you are blowing it.

Like i said that PRC is sitting pretty comfortably. PRC might loose some value but its still worth more compared to 1990s. I also dont see a overthrow of their leadership In near future (PRC citizens dont have the mojo). also PRC is having tall buildings, long bridges, fast trains, the Olympics, the space programme, aggressive foreign policy, Hong Kong, macau, Fortune 500 companies, etc etc. what's wrong with that. In fact other countries ought to follow prc. I don't know how can a country can have all those things while faking what's really going on. Who's the bigger fool. The prc - the rest of the world... so what prc makes up stuff and hides what's really going on, everything is rosy for prc.

I would also like to add that after 1989 PRC progression in certain areas has been better compared to India. In fact you might be right that India might blow another opportunity. But you know (I am a free optimistic because of my upbringing) there is a chance we might not blow it and when it clicks into place it will make PRC progression after 1989 look undesirable (think about the impact socially, geo-politically and economically). It might take another election cycle but once it clicks it runs. The NDA and UPA part I showed that to some effect. More nations want India to succeed in taking those opportunities compared to ever before. Our industrial leaders also want progression. I want progression. Its a opportunity PRC will react to. I would like to have your good wishes that we take up those opportunities. Because it will benefit Chinese people.

Wishing you a good weekend.
 
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Srinivas_K

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How China added $1 trillion to its economy by fudging data



China's economy could be $1 trillion smaller than it says.
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Christopher Balding, a professor at Peking University, lays out the case in a new working paper that finds some very strange patterns in China's official statistics, which have long been viewed with skepticism. He believes the government manipulated housing price data between 2000 and 2011 to produce lower inflation results. Balding makes four key observations:
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1. Why doesn't the housing price data reflect China's massive migration? In the last two decades, the country experienced a major migration from the rural interior to coastal cities. But the country's official statistics show rural home prices growing three times as fast as urban home prices between 2000 and 2011. Balding is skeptical that home prices in urban areas grew so much more slowly, especially when private measures show housing prices in Chinese cities increasing much faster.
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2. Or its massive economic growth? Overall, China says private housing prices grew 8% between 2000 and 2011, at a time when its economy never grew less than 8% in a year, sometimes growing more than 10%. With reports of a real-estate boom, it's implausible that inflation would run at 2.43%—and real housing prices would fall by almost 20%, as the data imply. Consider this: In 2012, the admittedly housing-heavy US economy grew 2.8%, and urban home prices increased nearly 3%.
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3. Why is China over-weighting city citizens? When China aggregates how housing prices affect its citizens' cost of living, it assumes 80% of them live in the city and 20% live in the country—every single year. Over the same time period, China's urban population has grown from 36.2% to 51.3%. The 80-20 weighting allows officials to play down cost of living increases by emphasizing the supposedly low-cost-growth urban results.(This explains the cooked up stats of inflation) At the same time, it assumes its citizens spend more on "education and cultural articles" and almost as much on "clothes" as they do on housing.
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4. How can China have so few renters? This a country where 230 million people, about 17% of the population, travel away from home to work each year. Why are only 12% of the population classified as renters? Balding thinks it's because China's statisticians want to use the lowest increases in home prices for the most people; home rental prices have grown 50% faster than homeownership.
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All told, when Balding re-adjusts the data to take into account what he calls more accurate assumptions about where Chinese citizens are living and how much their homes cost, he sees an extra 1% of inflation each year. Over the decade in question, that eats up about $1 trillion in real Chinese growth. That should give anyone invested in China's economy, figuratively or financially, a moment of pause.
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Or, if you don't believe him, prepare yourself to believe this fact from China's national statisticians: From 2003 to 2011, the only consumer prices that rose in China were for food, which made up 99% of the official increase in consumer prices.

How China added $1 trillion to its economy by fudging data – Quartz
 

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