Chinese GDP according to my estimates

Discussion in 'China' started by Srinivas_K, Jul 18, 2013.

  1. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Chinese GDP according to my estimates

    There are reports that chinese GDP is grossly over estimated and inflated, during the recession of 2008 even though chinese economy is export oriented still it grew at double digits due to credit stimulus.

    The credit of chinese economy is now close to 2 and half times the Chinese GDP.

    Most of the credit is coming from shadow bankings and the authorities do not know exact stats of this capital and yet every year china comes up with GDP growth rate close to 10 on an average.

    there are reports that local authorities inflate the GDP growth rates in order to meet the tough bench marks set by CCP and also to get promotions .,incentives ...etc....etc.

    And then there are guys in CCP who show infrastructure which do not yield any good returns as real GDP growth. this includes ghost malls, ghost cities,infrastructure which was built adjacent to each other even though it is not needed like ports in coastal areas and airports where a single or two flights arrive/depart in a day.

    The recent report shows that chinese local authorities inflated the GDP by 900 Billion !!!!!!! at their level which needed to be corrected at central level.

    I am taking the stats from wikipedia from 1998 on wards since that is the time Chinese economy crossed 1 Trillion.

    I am reducing the GDP by 3 for every year and I arrive at this estimations. ( I haven't done any statistical analysis but just simple subtraction of growth rates just for rough estimation)

    GDP Nominal:

    year = 1999 current_gdp_rate = 6.3 current_gdp_actualrate = 3.3 current_gdp in Billions = 1053.104246
    year = 2000 current_gdp_rate = 10.6 current_gdp_actualrate = 7.6 current_gdp in Billions = 1133.140168696
    year = 2001 current_gdp_rate = 10.5 current_gdp_actualrate = 7.5 current_gdp in Billions = 1218.1256813482
    year = 2002 current_gdp_rate = 9.7 current_gdp_actualrate = 6.7 current_gdp in Billions = 1299.74010199853
    year = 2003 current_gdp_rate = 12.9 current_gdp_actualrate = 9.9 current_gdp in Billions = 1428.41437209638
    year = 2004 current_gdp_rate = 17.7 current_gdp_actualrate = 14.7 current_gdp in Billions = 1638.39128479455
    year = 2005 current_gdp_rate = 16.9 current_gdp_actualrate = 13.9 current_gdp in Billions = 1866.12767338099
    year = 2006 current_gdp_rate = 20.2 current_gdp_actualrate = 17.2 current_gdp in Billions = 2187.10163320253
    year = 2007 current_gdp_rate = 28.8 current_gdp_actualrate = 25.8 current_gdp in Billions = 2751.37385456878
    year = 2008 current_gdp_rate = 29.4 current_gdp_actualrate = 26.4 current_gdp in Billions = 3477.73655217493
    year = 2009 current_gdp_rate = 10.4 current_gdp_actualrate = 7.4 current_gdp in Billions = 3735.08905703588
    year = 2010 current_gdp_rate = 18.8 current_gdp_actualrate = 15.8 current_gdp in Billions = 4325.23312804755
    year = 2011 current_gdp_rate = 23.5 current_gdp_actualrate = 20.5 current_gdp in Billions = 5211.9059192973
    year = 2012 current_gdp_rate = 12.3 current_gdp_actualrate = 9.3 current_gdp in Billions = 5696.61316979194


    As we see during the recession period around 2008 Chinese GDP stats shoot up, this is because of credit stimulus and infra, development not due to exports.
     
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  3. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    None of the Chinese data is believable, even if you give any amount of explanations. Growth of 17%, 25% etc. are figment of imagination. The only trustworthy data is Chinese exports and money they deposit in US and European banks, which is huge. Everything else is the political commissar's imagination running wild.

    No, I do not believe that Chinese Nominal GDP is $5.6Trillion. It is in the neighbourhood of $3-4 Trillion with 50% of it (some estimates say 40%; others say 60%) of its GDP being exported. That leaves about $2 Trillion for domestic consumption. That is not very high for a country with 1.3 Billion people.

    It is only now after 15 years of paying laurels to the Chinese economy that the West has begun to take note of figure work inaccuracies in their data.
     
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  4. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    One also needs to take into account the Hong Kong economy. Hong Kong is very important for the PRC. Its futile to compare Shanghai and Hong Kong as the latter plays a much more important role to the PRC economy. Also the West know what they are doing. If I asked a poor man when he had nothing and today he is having a coat that is worth value 1 USD compared to 0 USD earlier would that poor man mind. In fact few months ago it was worth 2 USD. No matter what it will still be worth greater to 0 USD and also the other men (poor and rich) can compare their coats and other items. Now look at the whole body what its worth. The range is now above 0 USD (> 0). So what if it goes down this poor man has managed to be worth something in USD in the international arena.

    ** The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the USD dollar.
     
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  5. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Why subtract 3%? Why not 1 or 5 or 10%?

    If you really want a more transparent method to calculate Chinese GDP data, you could try combining a time-series of China's 1990-2010 electricity consumption with South Korea's 1970-1990 energy-GDP coefficient curve. I know several economists in Hong Kong who advocate that approach.
     
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  6. AprilLyrics

    AprilLyrics Regular Member

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    chinese dont care so much about gdp compared to befo
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2013
  7. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    exactly, why don't they try looking at actual indicators like electricity consumption?

    the problem is, they want china to go down so their economy looks better by comparison.

    there is an expression in english, "blowing out my candle will not make your candle burn brighter".
     
  8. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, Hong Kong is an independent economy. They are not included in Chinese GDP. Anything transported to Honghong is a part of exportation.

    Don't get what you mean?

    ** The Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the USD dollar.[/QUOTE]
     
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  9. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well, "making your candle burn brighter" need a lot of hard working; "blowing out my candle" only requires the same thing as "proving Chinese GDP overestimated"-----MOUTH!
     
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  10. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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  11. DivineHeretic

    DivineHeretic Senior Member Senior Member

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    Well, you did point out something that was has been on my mind for the better part of the previous 3 years.

    Basic and essential economic statistics would provide a better understanding of the economic condition of any country over a set of GDP figures IMO.
    Electricity consumption as you pointed out, would be one of those key economic pointers. And so would be consumption of Steel, cobalt, copper and other metals needed to fuel and sustain the infrastructure boom.

    Then comes the consumption figure for Sulphuric acid, which really does indicate the industrial health of non IT, non electronic industries. That means basically heavy industries.

    There would be many more such pointers which can be reliably measured.

    Btw, I'm not really an economist and I kinda slept my way though economics classes....
     
  12. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    that makes sense.

    but it won't work here. why? because china is the #1 country in terms of electricity consumption.

    List of countries by electricity consumption - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    any indicators that make china look good will be automatically disregarded here.
     
  13. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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  14. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    I don't want chinese economy to go down and I only want chinese stupid bullying to go down. We are not scared of the stats that CCP show.
     
  15. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    lol, so your economic analysis has nothing to do with objectivity, only because you are hurt by "chinese bullying".
     
  16. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    That's right. The world keeps conspiring against the almighty HAN.

    In fact, China the is No. 1 most DEVELOPED nation in the world because its electricity consumption is highest (after all, electricity consumption alone is the only parameter worth analyzing). :rofl::rofl:

    Real exports numbers etc. are all BS, right ? (because they can verified from multiple sources)

    Obviously, the US & other Western nations do not hold a candle to China (after all, Chinese electricity consumption is the highest).

    Well done, our Chinese posters :thumb:

    You have just raised the bar.
     
  17. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Hurt by Chinese bullying ?? Nope.

    it is not the reason of hurt but the truth about chinese economy that compelled me to start this thread.
     
  18. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    I know Pakistan has different Economics or no economics in Madarsa, from the figures we are seeing it is looking like something similar in China.
     
  19. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    no, because we have 1.3 billion people, our per-capita electricity consumption is still low.

    we are not a developed country yet.

    our "real export" numbers which are verifiable are the highest in the world, but per capita again is low.

    india has a similar population to us, but per capita figures are several multiples lower than ours, near the bottom of the world.
     
    Last edited: Jul 19, 2013
  20. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yeah, but whatever it is, at least they managed to create a near world-class infrastructure in many parts of their nation. We have miserably failed in this effort, totally due to UPA's incompetence.
     
  21. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    TS, please understand basic Economics. Demand and supply, when their is demand their is supply. Not the other way round. Means when their is supply demand wont be their. If you see they are creating artificial demand for it and that is what driving their alleged economy. You must have read about Ghost towns and malls in China.

    you must have saw that thread, where the Village land was taken and new multistory houses were made and given to farmers without any demand from their side.

    So that they are really doing they are jacking up the demand for steel, cement and other things for construction industry, without actual demand for it. Now when they calculate their GDP this is reflected in it, thereby artificially jacking up. Just one example.
     
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