China's workforce shrinks by nearly 4 million in 1 year due to aging

[Free Karma]

China's workforce shrinks by nearly 4 million amid greying population | South China Morning Post

The mainland's working-age population continued to fall last year as Beijing struggled to address a spiralling demographic challenge made worse by its one-child policy. The mainland's total population stood at 1.37 billion at the end of 2014, according to the National Bureau of Statistics, an increase of 7.1 million on the previous year. The working-age population, between 16 and 59, fell to 915.8 million last year, down 3.7 million from the end of 2013.

While the shrinking labour pool is helping to prevent a rise in unemployment, it is also driving up labour costs and eroding the manufacturing and export competitiveness that helped fuel China's 30-year expansion. "It will clearly mean that in the coming 10 years, labour will contribute less to growth than it has done in the last two decades," said Louis Kuijs, Royal Bank of Scotland Group's chief greater China economist.

Yuan Xin , a demographer at Nankai University in Tianjin , said China was unlikely to face an immediate labour shortage.However, Yuan said, China still faced rising challenges, such as how to improve the quality of its work force to meet the demands of its long-term goals of structural economic reforms. The population aged 60 and over, by contrast, rose last year by more than 10 million to 212.4 million, or 15.5 per cent of the total population.

China introduced its controversial family planning policies, which limit most couples to only one child, in the 1970s to rein in population growth. The Communist Party moved to relax the rules in late 2013 to allow couples to have two children as long as at least one of the parents is an only child. Yet far fewer couples have applied to have a second child than expected. Nearly 116 boys were born for every 100 girls last year, while the gender ratio in the total population was 105 men to 100 women.

Yuan said a great imbalance in gender would lead to a high divorce rate and dramatic increases in cases of sexual violence. It would also become a fiscal burden to the government, which had to care for bachelors after they retired, Yuan said.

 

[Nicky G]

Re: China's workforce shrinks by nearly 4 million in 1 year due to agi

Ironic how short-sighted the one-child policy was considering Chinese are supposed to be decent long term strategists.

China has serious challenges in this context and there are no real solutions unless they try to rapidly increase birth rate that they have suppressed for so long. Anyway, the trouble is just starting.

China's percentage of elderly highest in 2030

The report, called China's Financial Policy Report from 2010 to 2011, says China will enter the phase of intense aging in 2050, when senior citizens above 60 will consist of more than 30 percent of the total population.

According to the latest demographic data predicted by the United Nations, China's aging problem is not so serious in 2010, with people above 60 consisting of 12 percent of the total population, which is below the average level of the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD). But in the following 30 years, it will become more of an aged society with its accelerating elderly population.

The report also says as a result of this, China's demographic dividend, meaning a rise in the rate of economic growth due to a rising share of working age people in a population, will peak in 2013 and gradually decrease from there.

 

[ezsasa]

In my opinion China has already reached a critical mass in terms of GDP, this demographic change will not have any major impact on its economics. After all America with its 300 million population holds larger GDP.

However my curiosity is in the fact that what is right amount of GDP for a population of 1 billion + in a country?

After all we fall in the similar category. This should help us in setting up of our targets.