China's Silk Road Initiative | What India should do!

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Yusuf, Aug 14, 2014.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I've written this piece with all the hype around the New Silk Route & the BMIC corridor that China wants India to join. I argue against it & offer my ideas on what India should do

     
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  3. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    I agree with your views, below are my additions.


    Welcome to India !!!

    China and India are economically equal through out the history .... Chinese are more today than the past. It is India that needs to catch up with its past glory. There is a proposal to link up USA via the under sea tunnel through Alaska and Canada under consideration which also touches Russia's Far east.

    Call this project as maritime silk route or silk route or Chinese hegemony and domination. The basic assumption is that China will have the advantage of producing the goods at cheaper prices as they did in the past. But That is the not the case in this decade. Chinese are loosing their manufacturing edge.

    The main point here is China is a country which needs to feed 1.3 Billion people when compared to the the size of the economy and their population, this is not the scenario with the western countries who can spend many resources and execute big projects and can wait longer times for returns. Any project that china executes if that do not return the profits Chinese are in trouble.
    The latest example is their housing industry which is heading towards a crisis.


    India has plans for its own trade routes through sea where we are doing maritime trade long before China. India is not a part of maritime silk route but is a maritime power both in economy and military.

    DMIC is a major project which when it is completed will give India huge advantage, down the south we have Bangalore Chennai industrial corridor and Chennai Vizag industrial corrridors. There is a talk of establishing various port cities all along the India's coast so India do have plans to emerge as a major manufacturing hub and trading partner in the near future. Considering India is strategically located in IOR it do not make any difference if we participate in Chinese silk route or not, India is rolling to establish its own trade routes taking our strategic advantage. If Chinese want any co operation in IOR it will be under India ocean RIM association guide lines in which India is a major player.

    Indian-Ocean Rim Association - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    Regarding India connecting with ASEAN, through myanmar. Japan and India are putting lot of efforts for trade corridor to counter Chinese and Chinese also want similar connectivity.


    In Histrical point of view if Chinese think India is a converging point for maritime and land silk routes, what these guys are doing in POK??

    China can benefit from India's strategic location under IORA guideline, people in IOR are against chinese barbaric arguments and bullying techniques used in SCS and East sea. People here work harmoniously and tolerant way co operating each other.

    The maritime dispute between India and BD is a prime example for the chinese to follow.

    India already has very well connected maritime routes so Maritime silk route do not make any sense at all. Where as India will be in advantageous position if the economic policies of current NDA Govt. start giving fruits after 2 or 3 years, India has price and demographic advantage and also gaining on China in manufacturing index and GDP, so no worries for India.

    By working closely with Japan and IORA, India can negate Chinese influence to some extent until India becomes strong and will have considerable muscle.

    A very valid point , reason why India needs to establish cities on Island Chains and also missile and marine bases.

    Chinese trade and economic influence and muscle is a diplomatic challenge to our South block guys and this is where alliances with Russia Japan, Vietnam and Philippines comes into picture.
    Japanese are threatened by Chinese actions, similarly South Korea, Taiwan MNC's who were based in China are facing trouble there, India needs to capitalize on this situation and make India an investor friendly nation. This will also make the situation ideal for economic block as well countering Chinese economic influence.

    I hope and wish the trade connectivity with ASEAN through Myanmar will make India's North East developed and well connected.


    All in all I doubt the Chinese assumption that they will have the manufacturing advantage just like they did in the last decade, so that they can establish trade routes and take advantage of it......that advantage is shifting towards other emerging powers as we speak, and China will become the customer and then also we need trade routes for sure :thumb:
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2014
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  4. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Very impressive analysis.
    Only one question: where is the money coming from!
     
  5. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    India spent 2 billion & counting in just Afghanistan. One private company made a 500 million airport in Maldives.

    Its policy direction that's required & will. Funding not an issue
     
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  6. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Nice documentary on 'Silk Road'.....

    "Mysterious China Secrets of the Silk Road"...

     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
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  7. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No matter how good your plan is, you always have to check your pocket. Your country has been struggling with double deficits for decades. Your internal infrastructure, education, R&D,etc, are all suffering from the lack of fund. Increase your spending in one direction means cutting the fund from another direction.

    So, yes, funding is an issue.
     
  8. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    When you people started a decade ago you are in the same position as India, we manufacture, we earn profits and we build infrastructure.

    If China has done impressively well, we will do much better than that this time with out the side affects that china is facing today like pollution, ghost cities and corruption at all levels.

    We have better demographic advantage than China and also we have solid investment partners in Japan and other countries even though most of the investments are coming from public and corporate funded entities.

    China started investing in R&D recently but we will make all things at a time, manufacturing and R&D will be done right from the word go. India is emerging a a R&D hub.
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2014
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  9. CCP

    CCP Senior Member Senior Member

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    What is your growth rate at now and, what is China's growth rate at a decade ago?
     
    Last edited: Aug 18, 2014
  10. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Growth rates will come in the next 2 to 3 years, once the activity picks up.
     
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  11. CCP

    CCP Senior Member Senior Member

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    Ok, I will see what are you going to say after another 2 to 3 years.
     
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  12. Vishwarupa

    Vishwarupa Senior Member Senior Member

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    But friends will India not face the same problem as China is facing after a decade or so.

    India & china both have few common problems like Population & basic healthcare issues. Moving forward china will control its population but what about India, can India reduce its population. Yes to an extend India has demographic advantages but how long can it sustain the growth with its bulging population. India has to maintain the proportionality between population & industrial growth other wise we will lose out.

    the question is how long can India increase, sustain & maintain the growth?
     
  13. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    But we did cut the fund in some important areas: such as military, R&D, etc.

    You have better demographic advantage than today's China not the china of 30 years ago.
    And the experience of past 20 years prove these solid investment partners are not very interested in your long term projects. Otherwise your infrastructure problem should not be as significant as today.
    India has been boasting about its knowledge economy and R&D hub since 1990s, and you are still using the word "will". That tell us there is something wrong with your plan.
     
  14. sesha_maruthi27

    sesha_maruthi27 Senior Member Senior Member

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    [video]http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/a-tense-encounter-between-indian-and-chinese-soldiers/335408[/video]
     
  15. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    Chinese should taught a lesson similar to 1987 incident where they ran away in fear !
     
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  16. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    India should stay as far away as possible from the Chinese initiative. They do not do anything for others. They build all this infrastructure for themselves.
     
  17. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    The New Silk Road (Orenburg)
     
  18. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Now it is China coming to your neighbourhood, building up infrastructure and grabbing the market.

    Yes, name me one thing India did for others without self-interest.
     
  19. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Maybe most of Indian posters are focused on the MARITIME silk route of the initiative, or the BMIC corridor southward, which directly impacts India.

    Do look into the LAND route too - westward. The contention for clout is also happening- China / Russia /IRAN v.s. Turkey over the Turkic-speaking Central Asian domain, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan... i.e. pan-Turkism and islamization pandemic with growing ambition of Erdogan and his likeminds, which may get into India's way too.

    [​IMG]

    Revival of diehard islamic / turkic elements that Soviet Union used to keep in check. In a video clip I saw Prez. of Kazahstan Nazarbayev spoke at the time of independence to a group of immams etc. laughing at those who converted to "Islam" overnight.

    A mosque Turkey built in Kazakhstan

    [​IMG]
     
  20. The enlightened

    The enlightened Regular Member

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    A decade ago, we were in the era of cheap money flowing out of developed countries. EVERYONE grew at the time. Today we live in a different world.
     
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  21. salute

    salute Senior Member Senior Member

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    india got no scoop in land route,
    mountains ranges at north and paki at northwest,
    any route land or sea has to be safe and BS free,so land route not gonna be think about,
    sea route serves dual purpose trade not only to middle east but also to african continent and security purpose security which is making a powerful navy.
     
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