China's Silk Road Initiative | What India should do!

Yusuf

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I've written this piece with all the hype around the New Silk Route & the BMIC corridor that China wants India to join. I argue against it & offer my ideas on what India should do

India’s response to China’s New Silk Route | Sarvatra Vijay
President Xi Jinping of China is scheduled to visit India sometime in September and the agenda being spoken loudly has been the Silk Route initiative which has become the pet project of Xi.

China's state-owned Xinhua News Agency unveiled a feature entitled "New Silk Road, New Dreams". The map of the proposed silk route shows how ambitious China is in pushing forward its influence around the world. The term silk route itself a term from the age when China was known as the middle kingdom, clearly shows Chinese ambitions to reclaim its lost glory. The map obviously has no link with the US which also tells another story.



India features in this on the map as part of what's being called the "maritime silk route". Apart from this the new route being proposed is the BMIC corridor which links Bangladesh, Myanmar, India and China linking China's Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal. China has been pushing this in its official meetings with India.

Gao Zhenting, councillor, department of international economic affairs says "From historical point of view India is the converging point of Maritime Silk road (MSR) and the ancient Silk Road on land. For more than 2,000 years India had very good exchanges with China through the passage of the South Silk Road, So in China we have a belief that China and India both placed the trail of silk roads and MSR and we both have benefited from the roads"

Any land route or the maritime route that China proposes to India while being attractive and appealing offers no substantial benefits to India. The routes proposed will provide Chinese hinterland that's away from the sea an easier access to the seas or the western markets depending on what route one talks about. The maritime and the land routes around South Asia will not only provide China access to large markets, but will also serve to provide energy security and hedge against any choking of the seas that harms Chinese trade and energy flows.

If one sees the proposed maritime silk route, it will bear a resemblance to the String of Pearls that China laid around India. The String of Pearls is a string of commercial and possible military facilities set up by China where it has made ports around India in order to hedge against any India or possible US attempts to choke the maritime choke points in Asia. China has never officially used or acknowledged the String of Pearls but the term did give rise to suspicions in India for obvious reasons.

China seems to be repackaging the String of Pearls in its new Maritime Silk Route trying to get a wider acceptance including India.

The Chinese asking India to join the BMIC makes no sense for India. China is only looking to enhance its influence across the region and world. The region with many small and poor nations find the prospect very attractive but for India, it would just end up aiding the enemy enhance its role in the region. China's intention of providing economic benefits to all in the region may just be a sweetener for its possible ulterior strategic goals. China will most definitely use its influence in the future to further its claims, or get its way during an international crisis that involves itself by coercing those along the route. One of the things China will most certainly do is to push its own currency the RMB for trade to undermine the dollar.

India should follow its own interests and not jump onto the Chinese bandwagon or get sucked by its hype. India should take urgent steps to develop its neighborhood for its own good. Indian investments on its own in Myanmar and Bangladesh will not only help these countries but also help our North East which remains under-developed. India should build the port in Sittwe in Myanmar and build roads into the North East from there. India has lagged behind China in the hydrocarbon race in Myanmar but the port and road project and then a pipeline from Myanmar could win India its influence back in that country. Similarly roads, rail and port in Bangladesh will serve a similar purpose. India should probably propose a "Bay of Bengal Initiative" linking up Myanmar, Bangladesh and India with Rail, Roads, Ports and pipelines to provide energy security and provide trade opportunities. India should offer its own vast domestic markets to these countries which will benefit these countries which will quite contrast China's silk route which in all probability help China more than any of the countries in the region.

Last but importantly, the strategic implication for opening up to China cannot be ignored. Any Chinese initiative will touch India's north east. China's role in fermenting trouble in north east is well known. China will exploit any opening it sees against India to harm us.
 

Srinivas_K

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I agree with your views, below are my additions.


President Xi Jinping of China is scheduled to visit India sometime in September and the agenda being spoken loudly has been the Silk Route initiative which has become the pet project of Xi.
Welcome to India !!!

China's state-owned Xinhua News Agency unveiled a feature entitled "New Silk Road, New Dreams". The map of the proposed silk route shows how ambitious China is in pushing forward its influence around the world. The term silk route itself a term from the age when China was known as the middle kingdom, clearly shows Chinese ambitions to reclaim its lost glory. The map obviously has no link with the US which also tells another story.
China and India are economically equal through out the history .... Chinese are more today than the past. It is India that needs to catch up with its past glory. There is a proposal to link up USA via the under sea tunnel through Alaska and Canada under consideration which also touches Russia's Far east.

Call this project as maritime silk route or silk route or Chinese hegemony and domination. The basic assumption is that China will have the advantage of producing the goods at cheaper prices as they did in the past. But That is the not the case in this decade. Chinese are loosing their manufacturing edge.

The main point here is China is a country which needs to feed 1.3 Billion people when compared to the the size of the economy and their population, this is not the scenario with the western countries who can spend many resources and execute big projects and can wait longer times for returns. Any project that china executes if that do not return the profits Chinese are in trouble.
The latest example is their housing industry which is heading towards a crisis.


India features in this on the map as part of what's being called the "maritime silk route". Apart from this the new route being proposed is the BMIC corridor which links Bangladesh, Myanmar, India and China linking China's Yunnan province to the Bay of Bengal. China has been pushing this in its official meetings with India.
India has plans for its own trade routes through sea where we are doing maritime trade long before China. India is not a part of maritime silk route but is a maritime power both in economy and military.

DMIC is a major project which when it is completed will give India huge advantage, down the south we have Bangalore Chennai industrial corridor and Chennai Vizag industrial corrridors. There is a talk of establishing various port cities all along the India's coast so India do have plans to emerge as a major manufacturing hub and trading partner in the near future. Considering India is strategically located in IOR it do not make any difference if we participate in Chinese silk route or not, India is rolling to establish its own trade routes taking our strategic advantage. If Chinese want any co operation in IOR it will be under India ocean RIM association guide lines in which India is a major player.

Indian-Ocean Rim Association - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Regarding India connecting with ASEAN, through myanmar. Japan and India are putting lot of efforts for trade corridor to counter Chinese and Chinese also want similar connectivity.


Gao Zhenting, councillor, department of international economic affairs says "From historical point of view India is the converging point of Maritime Silk road (MSR) and the ancient Silk Road on land. For more than 2,000 years India had very good exchanges with China through the passage of the South Silk Road, So in China we have a belief that China and India both placed the trail of silk roads and MSR and we both have benefited from the roads"
In Histrical point of view if Chinese think India is a converging point for maritime and land silk routes, what these guys are doing in POK??

China can benefit from India's strategic location under IORA guideline, people in IOR are against chinese barbaric arguments and bullying techniques used in SCS and East sea. People here work harmoniously and tolerant way co operating each other.

The maritime dispute between India and BD is a prime example for the chinese to follow.

Any land route or the maritime route that China proposes to India while being attractive and appealing offers no substantial benefits to India. The routes proposed will provide Chinese hinterland that's away from the sea an easier access to the seas or the western markets depending on what route one talks about. The maritime and the land routes around South Asia will not only provide China access to large markets, but will also serve to provide energy security and hedge against any choking of the seas that harms Chinese trade and energy flows.
India already has very well connected maritime routes so Maritime silk route do not make any sense at all. Where as India will be in advantageous position if the economic policies of current NDA Govt. start giving fruits after 2 or 3 years, India has price and demographic advantage and also gaining on China in manufacturing index and GDP, so no worries for India.

By working closely with Japan and IORA, India can negate Chinese influence to some extent until India becomes strong and will have considerable muscle.

If one sees the proposed maritime silk route, it will bear a resemblance to the String of Pearls that China laid around India. The String of Pearls is a string of commercial and possible military facilities set up by China where it has made ports around India in order to hedge against any India or possible US attempts to choke the maritime choke points in Asia. China has never officially used or acknowledged the String of Pearls but the term did give rise to suspicions in India for obvious reasons.
A very valid point , reason why India needs to establish cities on Island Chains and also missile and marine bases.

China seems to be repackaging the String of Pearls in its new Maritime Silk Route trying to get a wider acceptance including India.

The Chinese asking India to join the BMIC makes no sense for India. China is only looking to enhance its influence across the region and world. The region with many small and poor nations find the prospect very attractive but for India, it would just end up aiding the enemy enhance its role in the region. China's intention of providing economic benefits to all in the region may just be a sweetener for its possible ulterior strategic goals. China will most definitely use its influence in the future to further its claims, or get its way during an international crisis that involves itself by coercing those along the route. One of the things China will most certainly do is to push its own currency the RMB for trade to undermine the dollar.
Chinese trade and economic influence and muscle is a diplomatic challenge to our South block guys and this is where alliances with Russia Japan, Vietnam and Philippines comes into picture.
Japanese are threatened by Chinese actions, similarly South Korea, Taiwan MNC's who were based in China are facing trouble there, India needs to capitalize on this situation and make India an investor friendly nation. This will also make the situation ideal for economic block as well countering Chinese economic influence.

India should follow its own interests and not jump onto the Chinese bandwagon or get sucked by its hype. India should take urgent steps to develop its neighborhood for its own good. Indian investments on its own in Myanmar and Bangladesh will not only help these countries but also help our North East which remains under-developed. India should build the port in Sittwe in Myanmar and build roads into the North East from there. India has lagged behind China in the hydrocarbon race in Myanmar but the port and road project and then a pipeline from Myanmar could win India its influence back in that country. Similarly roads, rail and port in Bangladesh will serve a similar purpose. India should probably propose a "Bay of Bengal Initiative" linking up Myanmar, Bangladesh and India with Rail, Roads, Ports and pipelines to provide energy security and provide trade opportunities. India should offer its own vast domestic markets to these countries which will benefit these countries which will quite contrast China's silk route which in all probability help China more than any of the countries in the region.

Last but importantly, the strategic implication for opening up to China cannot be ignored. Any Chinese initiative will touch India's north east. China's role in fermenting trouble in north east is well known. China will exploit any opening it sees against India to harm us.
I hope and wish the trade connectivity with ASEAN through Myanmar will make India's North East developed and well connected.


All in all I doubt the Chinese assumption that they will have the manufacturing advantage just like they did in the last decade, so that they can establish trade routes and take advantage of it......that advantage is shifting towards other emerging powers as we speak, and China will become the customer and then also we need trade routes for sure :thumb:
 
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no smoking

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I've written this piece with all the hype around the New Silk Route & the BMIC corridor that China wants India to join. I argue against it & offer my ideas on what India should do
Very impressive analysis.
Only one question: where is the money coming from!
 

Zebra

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Nice documentary on 'Silk Road'.....

"Mysterious China Secrets of the Silk Road"...

 
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no smoking

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India spent 2 billion & counting in just Afghanistan. One private company made a 500 million airport in Maldives.

Its policy direction that's required & will. Funding not an issue
No matter how good your plan is, you always have to check your pocket. Your country has been struggling with double deficits for decades. Your internal infrastructure, education, R&D,etc, are all suffering from the lack of fund. Increase your spending in one direction means cutting the fund from another direction.

So, yes, funding is an issue.
 

Srinivas_K

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No matter how good your plan is, you always have to check your pocket. Your country has been struggling with double deficits for decades. Your internal infrastructure, education, R&D,etc, are all suffering from the lack of fund. Increase your spending in one direction means cutting the fund from another direction.

So, yes, funding is an issue.
When you people started a decade ago you are in the same position as India, we manufacture, we earn profits and we build infrastructure.

If China has done impressively well, we will do much better than that this time with out the side affects that china is facing today like pollution, ghost cities and corruption at all levels.

We have better demographic advantage than China and also we have solid investment partners in Japan and other countries even though most of the investments are coming from public and corporate funded entities.

China started investing in R&D recently but we will make all things at a time, manufacturing and R&D will be done right from the word go. India is emerging a a R&D hub.
 
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CCP

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When you people started a decade ago you are in the same position as India, we manufacture, we earn profits and we build infrastructure.

If China has done impressively well, we will do much better than that this time with out the side affects that china is facing today like pollution, ghost cities and corruption at all levels.

We have better demographic advantage than China and also we have solid investment partners in Japan and other countries even though most of the investments are coming from public and corporate funded entities.

China started investing in R&D recently but we will make all things at a time, manufacturing and R&D will be done right from the word go. India is emerging a a R&D hub.
What is your growth rate at now and, what is China's growth rate at a decade ago?
 
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Vishwarupa

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But friends will India not face the same problem as China is facing after a decade or so.

India & china both have few common problems like Population & basic healthcare issues. Moving forward china will control its population but what about India, can India reduce its population. Yes to an extend India has demographic advantages but how long can it sustain the growth with its bulging population. India has to maintain the proportionality between population & industrial growth other wise we will lose out.

the question is how long can India increase, sustain & maintain the growth?
 

no smoking

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When you people started a decade ago you are in the same position as India, we manufacture, we earn profits and we build infrastructure.
But we did cut the fund in some important areas: such as military, R&D, etc.

We have better demographic advantage than China and also we have solid investment partners in Japan and other countries even though most of the investments are coming from public and corporate funded entities.
You have better demographic advantage than today's China not the china of 30 years ago.
And the experience of past 20 years prove these solid investment partners are not very interested in your long term projects. Otherwise your infrastructure problem should not be as significant as today.
China started investing in R&D recently but we will make all things at a time, manufacturing and R&D will be done right from the word go. India is emerging a a R&D hub.
India has been boasting about its knowledge economy and R&D hub since 1990s, and you are still using the word "will". That tell us there is something wrong with your plan.
 

sesha_maruthi27

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[video]http://www.ndtv.com/video/player/news/a-tense-encounter-between-indian-and-chinese-soldiers/335408[/video]
 

Hari Sud

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India should stay as far away as possible from the Chinese initiative. They do not do anything for others. They build all this infrastructure for themselves.
 

no smoking

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India should stay as far away as possible from the Chinese initiative.
Now it is China coming to your neighbourhood, building up infrastructure and grabbing the market.

They do not do anything for others. They build all this infrastructure for themselves.
Yes, name me one thing India did for others without self-interest.
 

amoy

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Maybe most of Indian posters are focused on the MARITIME silk route of the initiative, or the BMIC corridor southward, which directly impacts India.

Do look into the LAND route too - westward. The contention for clout is also happening- China / Russia /IRAN v.s. Turkey over the Turkic-speaking Central Asian domain, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan... i.e. pan-Turkism and islamization pandemic with growing ambition of Erdogan and his likeminds, which may get into India's way too.



Revival of diehard islamic / turkic elements that Soviet Union used to keep in check. In a video clip I saw Prez. of Kazahstan Nazarbayev spoke at the time of independence to a group of immams etc. laughing at those who converted to "Islam" overnight.

A mosque Turkey built in Kazakhstan

 

The enlightened

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What is your growth rate at now and, what is China's growth rate at a decade ago?
A decade ago, we were in the era of cheap money flowing out of developed countries. EVERYONE grew at the time. Today we live in a different world.
 

salute

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Maybe most of Indian posters are focused on the MARITIME silk route of the initiative, or the BMIC corridor southward, which directly impacts India.

Do look into the LAND route too - westward. The contention for clout is also happening- China / Russia /IRAN v.s. Turkey over the Turkic-speaking Central Asian domain, Turkmenistan, Kazakhstan... i.e. pan-Turkism and islamization pandemic with growing ambition of Erdogan and his likeminds, which may get into India's way too.
india got no scoop in land route,
mountains ranges at north and paki at northwest,
any route land or sea has to be safe and BS free,so land route not gonna be think about,
sea route serves dual purpose trade not only to middle east but also to african continent and security purpose security which is making a powerful navy.
 

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