China's one-child policy - success or failure?

Discussion in 'West Asia & Africa' started by Rahul92, Sep 25, 2010.

  1. Rahul92

    Rahul92 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Author - Weiliang Nie (BBC Chinese Service)

    During the period that I grew up in China in the 1960s and 70s, Chinese families could have as many children as they liked. Many had four or five children. Some even had six or seven.

    My parents had four children. After the government started enforcing the rule of one child per family - often forcibly - my parents would sometimes jokingly remind me that I was an "exceeded quota person", meaning that under the one-child policy I would not have existed.

    Chairman Mao, who led China from 1949 until his death in 1976, regarded a fast-growing population as a productive force necessary for China to become a great power.

    He treated brutally those who dared to question him and believed that China should control its population.

    His successor Deng Xiaoping started to reverse the trend.

    He felt the tremendous drag China's huge population had on its fragile economic recovery after years of political turmoil.

    [​IMG]
    After three decades, the drawbacks of the one-child policy are more and more apparent


    On 25 September 1980, the Politburo of the Communist Party issued an "open letter" to all members of the party and the Communist youth league, urging them to take the lead in having only one child.

    This is widely seen as the beginning of the controversial one-child policy.

    The government claims that the policy has helped the country achieve 400 million fewer births during the past 30 years.

    But this has come at a painful cost - keenly felt by my generation and those after us.

    One of my childhood friends, who didn't want to reveal his name, has had to let his daughter, his second child, call him uncle in order to escape punishment for breaking the rule.

    He says it breaks his heart every time he talks about his daughter, who is officially registered as someone else's child.

    A female friend, like countless other young couples in China, had to pay a large fine for having a second child. But she believed the money was worth it.
    Falling fertility

    Officials have repeatedly stressed that this "fundamental policy of the state", which has been credited with helping reduce the pressure of population growth on society and economic development, will continue.

    But the government has already been challenged over whether the 400 million fewer births were entirely due to the implementation of this policy

    [​IMG]
    China faces the looming problem of a rapidly ageing society with not enough young carers


    A team of independent Chinese and foreign academics completed what they said was the first systematic examination of the one-child policy three years ago.

    They pointed out that the reduction was mainly due to a fall in the fertility rate (the number of children a woman is expected to have in her lifetime) in the 1970s when the government began to encourage delayed marriages, longer intervals between births and fewer children.

    According to Professor Wang Feng of the University of California, who led the study, China's fertility rate was reduced from more than five to just over two before family planning policy was introduced in 1978.

    The debate over whether the one-child policy is still needed was recently stirred up by a newspaper report about the little publicised case of Yicheng county, in the northern province of Shanxi.

    Yicheng has been experimenting with a two-child policy for 25 years, said The Southern Weekend, a liberal newspaper based in the southern city of Guangzhou, close to Hong Kong.

    Despite its more relaxed regulations, the county has a lower than average population growth rate, the report said.
    Continue reading the main story
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    * China faces growing sex imbalance

    After three decades, the drawbacks of the one-child policy are more and more apparent.

    Even though China still has the largest population in the world, a report last month by the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a leading government think tank, said officials were seriously overestimating the fertility rate.

    Instead of suppressing it, the report said the government should try to lift it. More and more people in China, largely in urban areas, prefer to have fewer children.

    It is unclear when Beijing might end the one-child policy. But attention will be focused on an upcoming meeting of the party central committee next month.

    It will finalise a five-year social and economic development plan, only the 12th since the Communist Party took power in 1949.

    Clearly, the situation is becoming urgent. Already the country's population is ageing fast. The first children born under the one-child policy face the prospect of caring for an ever-increasing number of pensioners.

    China also faces the daunting prospect of many men who can't find wives as many female foetuses have been aborted, resulting in a huge gender imbalance.

    The clock is ticking.


    Author - Weiliang Nie (BBC Chinese Service)
     
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  3. Rahul92

    Rahul92 Senior Member Senior Member

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    I think we should take this seriously it is never too late we can control our population also
     
  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    How can a policy be a success when it is restricting a personal freedom and right given by nature?? This is a dismal communist failure. Chinese were so proud when they came up with policy but no other nation has adopted this idiotic policy.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2010
  5. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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  6. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    Of course it is a success .TODAY China 's population is 1.4 billion.If drastic measures would not have been taken the population would have swelled to 1.6 billion.

    Similarly small family automatically results in two things.
    1. the women can take up employment
    2 savings rate is higher

    china's savings rate is more than 40 percent .Savings lead to investment and invest ment leads to growth
    Japan which has 5 trillion GDP has 125 million people and ZERO population growth

    China's population is increasing but at 1 percent p.a. That is also good for PREVENTING unemployment which causes social unrest
     
  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The communist party/government owns all the buisnesses this success is not
    being shared with the people, only a select few are enjoying it. China'S PPP is
    around 106 nothing successful for the common man. Population control is not a
    policy for economic success, both are necessary but 2 completely different policies
    one social and one economic. India would never be able to implement this policy we
    don't have the culture or rigid mindset to do this to our people.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2010
  8. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    of course,population policy in communist countries must be a failure while that in democracy country can not be a failure.
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2010
  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    ok it's not a failure, China's economic success is 100% from the one child policy and nothing else.
     
  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Years ago media hyped "who is going to feed Chinese" (food security). Now people are concerned about an aging society.

    Can u distintively tell 'social' and 'economic' policies apart (at least in this regard)? Back to China's context Communist Party has done a right thing (with guts) upfront in setting 'one-child policy'.

    China has to sustain %% of the world's population with %% arable land (less than India) , needless to mention education, health care... and ecological impacts...

    When it comes to 'human rights' or 'freedom' what freedom or rights do those starving or malnutritious kids enjoy? Isn't 'freedom from hunger' among many basic human rights? Of course, at the cost of losing 'freedom' to have as many children as possible.

    Let's be fair and comprehensive in judging this policy.
    Seeing is believing.
     
  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Much of China's economic success is from the simple fact that it provided cheap manufacturing, with a reduced population will manufacturing still be cheap??
     
  12. pankaj nema

    pankaj nema Senior Member Senior Member

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    In India we all know rapid growth of population is the cause of the rapid increase in food prices that we saw last year.
    But since people know that they themselves are to be blamed ,they will whine for a while and then accept it

    Population control is a must .If people did nt t do it willingly then force was justified in case of China.
     
  13. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    I agree but what mechanisms will be used for population control?? forced sterilizations, imprisionment, fines,job placement or other worst things??
     
    Last edited: Sep 25, 2010
  14. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    China's one-child policy is successful for last few decades as it controlled excessive population and may be better distribution of resources. But with once child policy now there will be more old people to be supported by few young people and relative productivity will suffer as a result and they will not be able to sustain the economy growth at same levels as now. There will be labor shortage, increase labor wages, stress on health infrastructure due to more old people and in effect causing a decrease in overall productivity.

    Just imagine, with one child policy, there is only 1 grand kid for 4 grand parents and therefore stress on the grand kid to support the 4 grand parents and 2 parents will be that much more, talking in simplistic terms.
     
  15. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Drawbacks of One China policy is that there may be a huge chance of the gender ratio being huge. I wonder if thats the case of China, but its not reported anywhere as such.
     
  16. Rahul92

    Rahul92 Senior Member Senior Member

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    we are also facing huge problem in gender ratio however this has raised due to discrimination between girls & boys according to latest survey for every 1000 boys only 854 women are present in india
     
  17. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    If you are going to have a policy, let it be a replacement policy. 2 children for each couple is required for maintenance. The 1 Child Policy has failed on many levels. The pension system is broke not providing enough income to survive, much less affording medical care. The preference for males has left an unhealthy gender imbalance. The lack of daughters to care for their parents has left elders with no one to care for them. The labour pool has dried up not leaving enough young workers to maintain a steady GDP growth. Pensioners are being hired for menial labour it is so scarce. Having to hide illegal children has left many families broken or broke for those who have been fined. The social ramifications of this policy has caused severe problems for the future stability of China.
     
  18. Rahul92

    Rahul92 Senior Member Senior Member

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    In India we have two children policy but it is not mandatory law many politicians fear to implement this law due to the fear of losing their vote banks at least by making two children law a must will help India to some extent especially in rural areas where due to their poor illiteracy rate & improper understanding between government & people is making it a real worse of the situation
     
  19. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    If the government is going to dictate Married life, what is the difference in having the government decide who should get married and who should not?? This would not even been as complex as a one child policy.
     
  20. Rahul92

    Rahul92 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Government initiative will be a benefit to the society . It will just counsel them on the population scenario which will reflect the advantages of two children policy
     
  21. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    The government has pursued this path for the last 3 decades or more but it has not made a dent, now with the media, internet and television it could continue possibly with greater success??
     

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