China's Nuclear Strike Force

Discussion in 'China' started by Martian, May 14, 2010.

  1. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Regarding the issue of whether China has an adequate number of nuclear ICBMs, I don't believe that this problem has been overlooked by the competent government of China.

    1) China has the 5,000 KM "Underground Great Wall." You can hide a lot of ICBMs in a 5,000 KM underground facility.

    2) The 20 silo-based "city-buster" ICBMs (i.e. 1 to 4 megatons) alone can destroy 20 American cities. If you annihilate the top 20 American cities, you are talking about roughly 30 million dead plus nuclear fallout. This is called nuclear deterrence.

    3) China has road-mobile and rail-mobile ICBM launchers.

    China?s Nuclear Option | The Diplomat

    "China’s Nuclear Option
    April 26, 2010

    By Richard Weitz

    Chinese policymakers say the country’s rapidly modernizing nuclear force is nothing to fear. They could do more to prove it."

    [​IMG]
    China's road-mobile ICBMs.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/899128/posts

    "Rail-Mobile ICBMs enter Chinese arsenal
    Kanwa Information Center ^

    Posted on Wednesday, April 23, 2003 11:19:59 PM by Filibuster_60

    Kanwa was informed that the development of train-borne DF31 ICBM is already completed, and the deployment of these missiles has also been prepared. The development of DF31A, a upgraded version of DF31, has also already been completed.

    In order to further enhance the mobile nuclear striking power and the capability to survive attacks, China has developed new types of DF31 series ICBMs similar to the former Soviet Union train-borne SS-24. In normal days, these missiles are moved along the railroads, while at time of war, they can be transported to selected sites and then launch nuclear assaults upon the enemy. DF31 is manufactured in Sichuan at Sichuan Areospace Industry Corporation. Reliable sources from China military industry say the major difference between DF31 and DF31A lies in their warheads. The former has single warhead, while the latter has multi-warheads."

    4) China has Type 094 submarines carrying JL-2 SLBMs.

    [​IMG]
    China's most-powerful Jin-class SSBN nuclear deterrent.

    5) Nuclear-capable DH-10 cruise missiles have been added to the Chinese nuclear arsenal.

    6) I'm not trying to beat a dead horse. However, for the sake of completeness, I want to point out that "It is likely that a number of PRC cargo ships carry CSS-9 missiles to act as a sea-based nuclear response/strike force."

    http://www.missilethreat.com/missilesofthe...sile_detail.asp

    "The CSS-9 is an effective strategic system that has significantly increased the PRC’s nuclear strike capabilities. Though the PRC’s land-based systems are unable to directly threaten much beyond the west coast of the United States, the CSS-9 is a modern ICBM system that threatens Russia and India, two major PRC rivals. However, the CSS-9 missile system can easily reach all of the US with the placement aboard cargo ships disguised as shipping containers. The self-contained launch system could easily be placed on a PRC ship and launched against targets in the US. It is likely that a number of PRC cargo ships carry CSS-9 missiles to act as a sea-based nuclear response/strike force. Similarly, these containers could be smuggled into and stored in PRC controlled warehouses throughout the Americas. The modular nature of these modern missile systems makes them extremely dangerous since they do not need to follow tradition missile tactics. Even with modern satellite systems, the combination of hidden road and cross-country mobile launchers, missile silos, and rail/ship launchers make it impossible to destroy most of these missiles prior to launch."

    7) China is developing the HN-2000 stealth cruise missile with a terminal supersonic phase. Just like the DH-10 cruise missile, it is reasonable to expect that the HN-2000 will also be nuclear-capable. See http://project2049.net/documents/assassin_...ise_missile.pdf

    "Global Strike and the Chinese Anti-Ship Cruise Missile: HN-2000

    China is currently developing its next-generation cruise missile, the Hong Niao-2000 (HN-2000). This missile will reportedly be equipped with millimeter wave radar, infrared image mapping, laser radar, synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) and the Chinese Beidou satellite guidance system, for accuracies of 1-3 meters. This missile will also incorporate the latest stealth technologies and have a supersonic terminal flight phase, with an expected range of 4,000km."

    8) Have you ever watched the movie "WarGames"? A nuclear war between Russia and the U.S. will cause both nations to launch an all-out attack on all countries of the world. Russia and the U.S. will not foolishly destroy only each other and let China become the de facto superpower.

    Similarly, in a nuclear exchange between the U.S. and China, China has plenty of thermonuclear SRBMs and IRBMs (especially the ones located in Tibet). China will "wipe out" most Russian cities. In retaliation, the Russians will take everyone else with them. Just as it was depicted in WarGames, Russian nuclear missiles will radiate to every major city in the world. Everybody dies, except for the lucky few in underground military facilities built to withstand a nuclear war.

    In essence, China can "borrow" the Russian nuclear arsenal in the final exchange against the U.S. The Russians are not going to let the U.S. become the de facto superpower survivor.

    http://www.fas.org/blog/ssp/2008/05/extens...ntral-china.php

    "Extensive Nuclear Missile Deployment Area Discovered in Central China

    [​IMG]

    More than 50 launch pads for nuclear ballistic missiles have been identified scattered across a 2,000 square kilometer (772 square miles) area of central China, according to analysis of satellite images.

    By Hans M. Kristensen

    Analysis of new commercial satellite photos has identified an extensive deployment area with nearly 60 launch pads for medium-range nuclear ballistic missiles in Central China near Delingha and Da Qaidam.

    The region has long been rumored to house nuclear missiles and I have previously described some of the facilities in a report and a blog. But the new analysis reveals a significantly larger deployment area than previously known, different types of launch pads, command and control facilities, and missile deployment equipment at a large facility in downtown Delingha.

    The U.S. government often highlights China’s deployment of new mobile missiles as a concern but keeps the details secret, so the discovery of the deployment area provides the first opportunity for the public to better understand how China operates its mobile ballistic missiles."
     
    Last edited by a moderator: Aug 14, 2010
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  3. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    How many nuclear warheads does China possess?

    You have to be careful. You could be jumping to a false conclusion. You have to interpret the Chinese government's statement from a lawyer's view and recognize the ambiguity in their claim.

    http://www.nukestrat.com/china/Book-35-125.pdf

    "Estimating the size of the Chinese nuclear arsenal has always relied almost exclusively on U.S. intelligence estimates, while Chinese government information about the size or composition of its nuclear forces has been almost non-existent. In the Chinese view, secrecy increases the potential adversaries’ uncertainty about Chinese capabilities and therefore increases the deterrent effect, although it may also – as in the case of the United States – cause that adversary to assume the worst. Perhaps in recognition of this dilemma, the Chinese Foreign Ministry in April 2004 published a fact sheet that included the statement: “Among the nuclear-weapon states, China ... possesses the smallest nuclear arsenal.”93 Since Britain has declared that it has less than 200 operationally available warheads, and the United States, Russia and France have more, the Chinese statement could be interpreted to mean that China’s nuclear arsenal is smaller than Britain’s.94

    Not surprisingly, the devil is in the details. When the Chinese statement uses the word “arsenal,” does that mean the entire stockpile or just the portion of it that is operationally deployed? To add to the confusion, Britain has not disclosed the size of its stockpile but only declared that “less than 200 warheads” are “operationally available.” This strongly suggests that there may be additional British warheads in storage." (see pp. 38-39)
     
    Last edited: May 14, 2010
  4. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    China's strategic nuclear ambiguity

    U.S. attempts to pierce China's veil of strategic nuclear ambiguity.

    In the first post, I listed the broad range of known delivery vehicles for "China's Nuclear Strike Force." One of the most well-kept secrets on the planet is the size of China's thermonuclear arsenal. The Pentagon has no idea how to deal with China unless it knows with certainty the size of China's nuclear deterrent.

    Let's review some key facts.

    1) China was the fourth nation in the world to explode a thermonuclear weapon in 1967, ahead of the French.

    2) China launched her first satellite into space in 1970.

    3) Putting (1) and (2) together, China has possessed the capability to build thermonuclear-tipped ICBMs for 40 years. Over the years, China has improved her miniaturization technology to the point of building a W-88 class warhead by the 1980s.

    We also know that China has demonstrated the ability to send multiple satellites into space on one rocket. This dual-use technology is the basis for MIRVed ICBMs.

    The point is that China has been able to build advanced MIRVed thermonuclear ICBMs for at least twenty to thirty years.

    4) Everyone agrees that China's nuclear arsenal is smaller than the U.S.'s roughly 10,000 (e.g. deployed and strategic reserve) warheads.

    5) The key question that everyone wants answered is: how much "smaller" is the Chinese nuclear arsenal? Are China's nuclear warheads closer to 200 or 2,000 in number? The U.S. wants to know.

    Hence, the latest clever political move to pressure China to disclose the number and locations of her nuclear arsenal. The U.S. has disclosed the total number of its nuclear warheads (which we all knew numbered in the many thousands) and now it wants to know China's big secret.

    For the last 40 years, has China been sitting on her hands and doing "not much"? Or, as many suspect, how big of a nuclear arsenal has China built in secret over the last 40 years?

    U.S. says China nuclear programs lack transparency | Reuters

    "U.S. says China nuclear programs lack transparency

    WASHINGTON
    Tue Apr 6, 2010 1:57pm EDT

    [​IMG]

    (Reuters) - Lack of transparency surrounding China's nuclear programs raises questions about its strategic intentions, the United States said on Tuesday.

    Barack Obama | China

    "China's nuclear arsenal remains much smaller than the arsenals of Russia and the United States," the administration said in a nuclear policy document published on Tuesday.

    "But the lack of transparency surrounding its nuclear programs -- their pace and scope, as well as the strategy and doctrine that guides them -- raises questions about China's future strategic intentions."

    "The United States and China's Asian neighbors remain concerned about the pace and scope of China's current military modernization efforts, including its quantitative and qualitative modernization of its nuclear capabilities," it said.

    China last month unveiled its 2010 military budget with a spending hike of 7.5 percent, a relatively low figure that surprised outside analysts after more than two decades of double-digit rises.

    The U.S. report reiterated the Pentagon's oft-stated wish to hold a strategic dialogue with the Chinese military that would "provide a venue and mechanism for each side to communicate its views about the other's strategies, policies, and programs on nuclear weapons and other strategic capabilities."

    "The goal of such a dialogue is to enhance confidence, improve transparency, and reduce mistrust," the report added.

    China ended weeks of uncertainty last week when it announced that President Hu Jintao would attend a summit next week on nuclear security in Washington.

    China had previously delayed saying whether Hu would participate in the multinational meeting hosted by President Barack Obama. U.S.-China ties have recently been clouded by economic and political disputes.

    Washington angered Beijing by announcing a $6.4 billion arms package for Taiwan early this year, and China responded by postponing several high-level exchanges between U.S. and Chinese military leaders.

    But China did not freeze all military-to-military contacts as it did in response to previous U.S. arms deals with Taiwan.

    (Reporting by Phil Stewart and Paul Eckert, Editing by Alan Elsner)"

    http://china.globaltimes.cn/diplomacy/2010-05/528550.html

    "US calls on China for more nuke transparency

    * Source: Global Times
    * [02:27 May 05 2010]
    * Comments

    By Liu Dong

    China pledged Tuesday "extreme restraint" in its nuclear development, as the US revealed Monday the size of its nuclear stockpile, whilst warning about isolation for any state that defies the current disarmament trend.

    The Pentagon disclosed that the US holds 5,113 nuclear warheads as of September 30, including operationally operated warheads, both in active and inactive reserves, an 84 percent curtail from the 31,225 in 1967 and a 75 percent cut from the 22,217 in 1989, when the Berlin Wall fell.

    The figures, the first official disclosure of the half-century-long top secret, were released as the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT) review conference unfolds, at which US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton noted that this revelation serves to enhance transparency concerning the US arsenal and which is conducive to urging other nuclear-armed states to follow suit.

    China was specifically singled out, as a senior US defense official renewed calls for greater transparency by China, saying there was "little visibility" when it came to Beijing's nuclear program, Reuters reported.

    Zhang Zhaozhong, director of the Science and Technology Research Division of the National Defense University, rebuffed the US claim of China's lack of a transparent policy concerning the nuclear arsenal as unsubstantiated.

    "On the contrary, the publicized figure is merely shrouded tactics, as the US holds at least 9,000 nuclear warheads," Zhang added.

    China will "exercise extreme restraint over developing nuclear weapons," foreign ministry spokeswoman Jiang Yu said Tuesday in a regular press briefing.

    "China will continue to maintain nuclear power at the lowest level, only for national security needs. We are willing to make joint efforts with the relevant countries toward nuclear disarmament and a nuclear-weapons-free world," the spokeswoman added."
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2010
  5. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    China inches toward nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia

    In my view, China is taking a middle-path toward nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia. China is not engaging in a rapid nuclear-force modernization and expansion. However, China is also not sitting still.

    Instead, China is slowly creeping up on the Americans and Russians. China has built two new Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs, each carrying 12 Julang-2 SLBMs. Also, China has built more road-mobile ICBMs. This seems to be a fair compromise that the Americans can accept. The U.S. won't complain if China adds approximately 10 to 30 ICBMs a year to her nuclear arsenal.

    76 Megatons In The Big Parade

    "76 Megatons In The Big Parade
    Posted by Bill Sweetman at 9/3/2009 7:03 AM CDT

    Five new weapon models, including intercontinental ballistic missiles, conventional cruise missiles and medium-range and short-range conventional ballistic missiles, will be shown officially for the first time in China's National Day parade in Beijing in October 1, according to Xinhua. The last such parade was ten years ago, on the 50th anniversary of Communist Party rule.

    Quoting an expert from the People's Liberation Army (PLA) Second Artillery Force, responsible for nuclear deterrence and conventional ballistic missiles, the news agency reported that the new weapons would be "second generation" types, already in service with the PLA.

    The big potential revelations would be the Dongfeng 41 road-mobile ICBM and the Julang 2 sea-launched ballistic missile - widely discussed outside China, but never seen before.

    [​IMG]
    Chinese Internet via Armscontrolwonk

    This month's DTI - to go live on the website later today - carries a report from a late-July conference on deterrence in Omaha and my op-ed on nuclear weapons. Former deputy defense secretary John Hamre's comment in Omaha that nuclear weapons have been "the subject of a successful campaign of stigmatization" in the West, but not elsewhere, is underscored by the report of the Beijing parade: it's literally impossible to conceive of a parade of nuclear missiles down Pennsylvania Avenue or Whitehall.

    I reported some of the news from Omaha here at the time. PLA Col. Yao Yunzhu explained that China's nuclear policy is based on "no first use" and is strictly retaliatory, in response to a nuclear attack. "China differs in this respect from American strategists who talk about nuclear warfighting or escalation control", she added.

    China, she said, works towards a "lean and effective" deterrent and will modernize its strategic forces to improve their survivability - hence the development of road- and rail-mobile weapons. Moreover, opaqueness - deliberately concealing its capabilities - is Chinese policy. "With no-first-use and a small arsenal, China depends on opaqueness to keep its deterrent credible, to induce uncertainty in an enemy's cost-benefit calculations."

    As I reported a few weeks ago, Col Yunzhu cautioned that ballistic missile defense could represent a problem for China and could drive it to expand its force. Interestingly, a couple of weeks later - at the Space & Missile Defense conference in Huntsville - US STRATCOM leader Gen. Kevin Chilton echoed that comment in regard to US-Japan efforts to deter North Korean nuclear developments. "Our broader concern has to do with Chinese concern," Chilton said, "and the perception of who [BMD] is aimed against.""

    [​IMG]

    Type 094 submarine - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

    "The Type 094 (NATO reporting name: Jin-class; Chinese: 晋级潜艇) is a new class of ballistic missile submarine developed by the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy. The first-of-class was constructed at Huludao Shipyard in Huludao, Liaoning Province and launched in July 2004. At least two are confirmed to have been launched. [1]

    In late 2006, a commercial satellite photographed what is believed to be the new Jin-class submarine moored in Xiaopingdao Submarine Base. In comparison with the older Type 092-class submarine, it has been elongated from 122m to 133m in order to house the missile tubes and part of the reactor.[4]

    [​IMG]
    JL-1 and JL-2 Missiles.

    The Type 094 submarine is capable of carrying 12 of the more modern JL-2s[5] with a range of approximately 14,000 km, and is capable of targeting all of the Western Hemisphere, from close to the Chinese coast. The Type 094 is believed by some western analysts to incorporate a great deal of Russian technology and will replace the Type 092 submarine (NATO reporting name: Xia class) for the People's Liberation Army Navy.

    In its 2008 assessment of China's military, the United States Department of Defense estimated that one Type 094 "may soon enter service", and that "up to five" would be in service by 2010.[5] The United States government has expressed concern over these submarines, saying that the Chinese government has not been transparent enough about the program.[6]"
     
    Last edited: Aug 19, 2010
  6. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Senior PLA commander spells out defensive nature of China's nuclear arsenal

    [​IMG]
    China's Second Artillery Force

    http://eng.mod.gov.cn/DefenseNews/2010-08/14/content_4184084.htm

    "Senior PLA commander spells out defensive nature of China's nuclear arsenal
    (Source: Xinhua) 2010-August-14 07:26

    BEIJING, Aug.13 (Xinhua) -- China's nuclear weapons are for self-defense purposes, a top commander in the People's Liberation Army (PLA) of China strategic missile corps said.

    "If no power presses for nuclear war with China, the Second Artillery Force will always keep silent," General Jing Zhiyuan, commander of the PLA Second Artillery Force that controls China's nuclear weapons stockpile, said in an article published in the latest issue of China Armed Forces.

    China's development of a nuclear arms capacity is limited to that of the lowest level necessary to safeguard national security, Jing said in the article in the quarterly magazine affiliated to the Xinhua News Agency.

    "We will firmly pursue a defensive nuclear strategy and resolutely implement the 'no first use' policy," he said.

    China has long insisted its military nuclear drive is purely defensive in nature.

    At the Nuclear Security Summit in April this year, Chinese President Hu Jintao put forward a five-point proposal calling on all nuclear-armed countries to keep their nuclear weapons facilities safe.

    Jing said China's nuclear military forces will carry out Hu's five proposals and actively support international efforts to enhance nuclear security.

    "We, the Second Artillery Force, will always stick to the principle of limited development of nuclear weapons and we will not engage in a nuclear arms race," Jing wrote.

    China began building its own nuclear arsenal after the country exploded its first atomic bomb in the deserts of northwestern China in 1964.

    In 1971, the country became the fifth country in the world to launch a nuclear submarine.

    China successfully tested a carrier rocket in 1980, shooting it from northwest China to the South Pacific to showcase its intercontinental strike capabilities.

    It also conducted an underwater missile launch in 1982.

    In 1996, China declared it would suspend nuclear testing to promote nuclear disarmament.

    Editor: Ouyang Dongmei"
     
  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    How is China achieving nuclear parity with USA and Russia?? China has 200 warheads compared to USA and Russia who have atleast 8000+? China at this point has parity with UK and Israel.
     
  8. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Chinese follow a policy of nuclear detterence and no way they will try to achieve parity with Russia and China (those two have 12,000 nukes each).No way the chinese can compete with those numbers.India and China follow a policy of nuclear detterence
     
  9. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    "China is slowly creeping up on the Americans and Russians"

    From the first news article below: "The new treaty will cut American and Russian strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 over seven years, about a third less than the 2,200 currently allowed." To achieve nuclear parity, China needs to attain 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads in seven years; not the "8,000+" that you claim.

    From my post #4 above, I said:

    "In my view, China is taking a middle-path toward nuclear parity with the U.S. and Russia. China is not engaging in a rapid nuclear-force modernization and expansion. However, China is also not sitting still.

    Instead, China is slowly creeping up on the Americans and Russians. China has built two new Type 094 Jin-class SSBNs, each carrying 12 Julang-2 SLBMs. Also, China has built more road-mobile ICBMs. This seems to be a fair compromise that the Americans can accept. The U.S. won't complain if China adds approximately 10 to 30 ICBMs a year to her nuclear arsenal."

    From the second news article below: "Pentagon has estimated that China is increasing its nuclear warheads at the rate of 25% since 2006."

    Let's put it all together. The U.S. and Russia will have 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads in the near future. China has an unknown number of strategic nuclear warheads, but everyone agrees that it is much smaller than the U.S. or Russia. However, the "Pentagon has estimated that China is increasing its nuclear warheads at the rate of 25% since 2006." I do not know whether the Pentagon estimate means 25% flat growth or compounded growth per year. Nevertheless, the number of strategic nuclear warheads in China's arsenal is growing (e.g. see new Jin class submarines carrying JL-2 SLBMs or new road-mobile ICBMs at China's 60th anniversary parade). Hence, I stand by my statement that "China is slowly creeping up on the Americans and Russians" in strategic nuclear weapons.

    http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010/apr/08/barack-obama-nuclear-treaty-russia

    "Barack Obama signs nuclear treaty with Russia

    • US and Russian presidents meet in Prague
    • Arms treaty will slash two countries' nuclear arsenals by a third

    Mark Tran
    guardian.co.uk, Thursday 8 April 2010 10.17 BST

    The US president, Barack Obama, and Dmitry Medvedev, the Russian leader, today signed an arms treaty that will slash their respective nuclear arsenals by a third.
    ...
    The new treaty will cut American and Russian strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 over seven years, about a third less than the 2,200 currently allowed."

    http://blogs.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/ChanakyaCode/entry/growing-chinese-nuclear-power

    "Growing Chinese Nuclear Power
    S D Pradhan, 10 July 2010, 12:59 PM IST

    1. A development that has serious implications for the security of India is the rapid growth of the Chinese nuclear power. Reports during the past couple of years suggest that China has increased its warheads, qualitatively improved their design, miniaturized warheads, systematized the storage and management of the nuclear warheads, upgraded certain missile systems, deployed certain missiles which can be regarded as India specific, and has introduced certain changes in its nuclear doctrine which do not augur well for India.

    2. While the exact number of warheads with China is not known, estimates made by the US indicate that the number has increased significantly. In 2006, the US Defense Intelligence Agency assessed that China had about 100 nuclear warheads but this assessment was revised in 2009 by the Federation of American Scientists (FAS), which concluded that China had 180 active nuclear weapons with total of 240 warheads. Pentagon has estimated that China is increasing its nuclear warheads at the rate of 25% since 2006. Some experts put the figure at 400 nuclear warheads but this appears to be incorrect according to the FAS expert Hans M Kristensen. While there is no agreement about the actual number of nuclear warheads, all experts agree that China has significantly enhanced its nuclear stockpile and continues to make assiduous efforts in this direction.

    3. However what is more significant is the qualitative improvement made in the designs of nuclear weapons. China has made considerable progress in the miniaturization of warheads. The modus operandi of procuring the warhead designs answers the argument put forward by some experts that China does not have advance technological knowledge. The warhead designs had been covertly procured through espionage activities from the US. A number of espionage cases confirm this. In 1981, Gwo-Bao Min, a nuclear weapons engineer in the D Division at the Lawrence Livermore National laboratory was made to resign due to suspicion of providing China with information about US neutron bomb technology from W-70 warhead. In 1997, another Chinese (American born) scientist Peter H Lee had been arrested and pleaded guilty to verbally passing classified nuclear weapon related information to China while he was employed as a physicist at Los Almos. Later the Cox Report, which enquired into the espionage activities of another Chinese nuclear scientist Wan Ho Lee, had concluded that Lee had passed on the design of W-88 to China. These incidents do not exhaust the list of the Chinese espionage activities to procure nuclear related information from the western countries. In addition China has also lured foreign nuclear scientists to work for the Chinese nuclear organizations. Based on the information obtained covertly, China is reported to have miniaturized and qualitatively improved its nuclear weapons.

    4. Crucially, China has developed advance delivery systems. Its land based missiles include DF-3A (range about 3,000 kms), DF-4 (range about 5,500 kms), DF-5 (range about 13,000 kms and capable of delivering multi megaton warheads), DF-21 (range about 2,000 kms) and DF-31/31A (range about 11,000 kms).While earlier reports did not indicate the deployment of DF-31A; some recent reports indicate that it has now been deployed. China is reported to be replacing liquid fueled missiles by solid fueled missiles. The Chinese submarine launched ballistic missiles include JL-1 and JL-2. While the former type of missiles had been deployed earlier, the latter type of missiles is reported to have been deployed recently. The number of submarines capable of carrying nuclear warheads has gone up to three according to Kristensen, who analyzed the recent satellite imageries. Reports suggest that China plans to have five submarines in the coming years. The Chinese are also developing and testing anti ship ballistic missiles for use against aircraft carriers. China has also modified a few (Hong-6) aircraft to deliver nuclear bombs. In addition China has DH-10 cruise missiles which have been deployed recently. This appears to be the Chinese version of US Tomhawk and has a range of 2,000 kms. A few aircraft have been modified to carry DH-10.

    5. The deployment of nuclear capable missiles in recent years is a cause for concern particularly to India. In 2008, it was reported that China had deployed DF-21 at Delingha in North Central China. Both Indian and foreign analysts pointed out that this deployment was India specific. Though this type of missiles from Delingha could hit targets both in India and Russia, this appears to have been specifically deployed against India as there are other missile bases in the North China, which could hit targets in Russia. Significantly, the DF-21 could hit any target in Arunachal Pradesh, which China is aggressively claiming. This is not the only missile base that can be used against India. Earlier, the US had assessed that 25 medium range ballistic missiles were based in Tibet confirming Indian Intelligence assessment, though the figures differed. China could also move its missiles using rail and road networks. Significantly, China has built a 5,000 long tunnel for the safety of its nuclear missiles, located in a mountainous area in North China. According to the China National Defence News (Dec. 2009), this tunnel, which is also called “Steel Great Wall”, can withstand hundreds of thousands of tons equivalent rounds of nuclear bombs.

    6. This deployment when seen against the backdrop of the shift in the nuclear doctrine, assumes significance. Of late, China has come up with the concept of “Limited Nuclear Deterrence” which inter alia suggests that along the Chinese periphery the doctrine of ‘No First Use’ (NFU) of nuclear weapons may not be adhered. In 2006, the China Institute of International and Strategic Studies indicated a nuanced change in the Chinese nuclear doctrine of NFU. It mentioned that if China was required to use force to reunify Taiwan, then the Chinese NFU would become redundant. Clarifying this concept, Maj Gen Zhu Chegdu, Dean of China’s National Defence University stated that China would have no choice but to respond with nuclear weapons if the US attacked the Chinese Territory with conventional weapons. While this concept was evolved in response to the lowering of threshold for the use of nuclear weapons by Russia and the US threat over Taiwan, several analysts concluded that this concept would be applicable to all the territories which China claims. Since China is increasingly making noise over Arunachal Pradesh, analysts have indicated that this concept could be applied there as well. They have also point out that the Chinese stress on production of tactical nuclear weapons is in keeping with this concept.

    7. China has also taken steps for better management of its nuclear stockpile. It has reorganized the 22 Base, which is situated deep in Qinling mountain range about 140 kms west of Yian and is responsible for storing and managing most of the Second Artillery’s (China’s nuclear force) nuclear warhead stockpile. This organization carries out a number of functions like inspecting warheads for reliability and safety, storing and transporting warheads components; training missile personnel in warhead storage, maintenance, assembly and mating; maintaining a support structure for warhead management; and operating a communication system that supports its mission. A specialized 13-member warhead expert working group assists Second Artillery’s leadership in stockpile management policy.

    8. The Chinese tests of their missiles, which are reported from time to time, indicate that they are making serious efforts to improve the efficiency of their delivery systems. In the process, some missiles fail to achieve the stipulated range, which attract comments from some experts that the Chinese do not have the advance technological know-how. This assessment is not correct. The successful use by China of their anti satellite missile in 2007 indicated that China has advance technological knowledge in the field. While it may be true that China may not have acquired the level of US or Russia, the Chinese focused attention in this sphere suggests that in the coming four to five years China would have most advance missile systems. China has already achieved substantial progress towards miniaturization of war heads and further efforts are continuing. They can also have access to the western technology through covert means.

    9. The implications of these trends for India hardly need elaboration. Not only the Chinese have enhanced their nuclear power but have deployed nuclear capable missiles that can hit targets in India. The change in the nuclear doctrine suggests that they have lowered their threshold for the use of nuclear weapons in their bordering areas. These demand appropriate strengthening of our system and as well as modifications in our nuclear doctrine to ensure that our deterrence remains credible."
     
  10. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Chinas nuke arsenal is not a strike based force. It would have to ramp up its arsenal of nukes as well as icbms to thousands to constitute a strike force. Just destroying 20 cities in US does not make any sense. It will invite a few hundred of not thousand nukes from the US which will surely annihilate china.
    Strange that china or at least its posters in forums talk of first strike when MAD was realized a long time ago and even crazy people in moscow realized that and backed off.
     
  11. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Martian many of the nuclear weapon cuts are not really cuts US and Russia can have one missile MIRV'D with 10 warheads so 1,500 missiles can deliver 15,000 warheads. Both USA and Russia have weapons that can devastate like nukes without being classified as nukes , X-51 is one example of this. China's nuclear program does not come close to the infrastructure of US and Russia's nuclear weapons programs. Also under the new treaty a long ranger bomber carrying 1000's of dumb bombs and cruise missiles is classifed as 1 missile.

    http://www.boston.com/news/nation/w...uclear_treaty_would_cut_only_long_range_arms/
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2010
  12. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    China can match U.S. or Russian strategic nuclear strike force at will

    I share a different opinion. From the news article that I posted above, the U.S. and Russia will reduce their number of strategic nuclear warheads to 1,550 each over seven years.

    How difficult is it for China to match the 1,550 strategic nuclear warheads in the U.S. or Russian arsenal? Since China already possesses all the necessary advanced technologies, this is a simple math problem.

    From Wikipedia (see http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Multiple_independently_targetable_reentry_vehicle), we know that a Trident II missile carries 12 MIRVs. For simplicity, let's assume that the Chinese have only 10 MIRVs per missile. We know that China has already demonstrated dual-use capability in releasing multiple satellites on one launch into multiple orbits.

    1,550 strategic nuclear warheads / 10 MIVRs per warhead = 155 strategic nuclear missiles.

    In my post, I posited that China is expanding her nuclear arsenal at approximately 10 to 30 ICBMs (whether land- or sea-based) per year. As long as China chooses to MIRV her strategic missiles, it could require a mere 5 years for her to match the U.S. or Russia.

    Taking the high-end of my approximation:

    30 new ICBMs / year * 5 years = 150 new ICBMs

    150 new ICBMs * 10 MIRVs per ICBM = 1,500 strategic nuclear warheads (this is sufficient deterrence against the U.S. in 5 years time)

    Note: Using LeathalForce's definition of warhead, the U.S. will be able to devastate China a few more times over (i.e. beat a dead horse; however, it has no practical value).
     
    Last edited: Aug 14, 2010
  13. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Let me get this straight

    1)Chinese have an arsenal to detter two superpowers--->Hence Chinese nukes are there in component form hence triggers,deliver vehicles and nukes are scattered in different locations
    2)The nuke keys are held by the central military comission not by the military.
    3)The Chinese do not send their boomers with nuclear missiles in it
     
  14. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Martian China has not been able to MIRV 10 warheads DF-31A has 3 warheads and all Chinese MIRV SLBM tests have failed for the last decade While USA and Russia have MIRV'D SLBM 'S for the last 50 + years.
     
  15. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    by the way the chinese stopped producing fissile material
     
  16. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    5 years or 15 years, China can close the gap with the U.S. and Russia at will

    Let's use your estimate of 3 MIRVs per warhead instead of 10 MIRVs. It would only extend the time-frame by roughly 3-fold. That is assuming that China doesn't decide to build three times the number of factories to accelerate the build-out. Assuming that China takes her time, the time required would extend from 5 years to roughly 15 years. That is still a relatively short period of time to close the strategic nuclear gap.

    I beg to differ from your view that "all Chinese MIRV SLBM tests have failed for the last decade." The SLBM tests have been successful. I don't know of any authoritative source that knows whether the missiles were MIRVed or not.

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/JL-2

    "The whole JL-2 project lasts roughly about one decade, till present. The original designation of the project was so-called "New DongFeng Goes Undersea" ("新东风下海"), by the COSTIND and CMC. The project was co-held by the First and Second Research Institutes of the Ministry of Aerospace Industry (defunct, see CNSA)

    At 10:20 AM, 22nd Dec, 2002, the first ship of a new type of SSBN was formally launched by China in Huludao, which now is known as Type 094 (Jin-Class). But, its SLBM was, just as convention, lagging behind. JL-2 has three subtypes, the initial experimental one, the "Jia" (甲, Chinese literally means "The First", or "I"), and the "Yi" (乙, Chinese literally means "The Second", or "II"). The codes for "Jia" and "Yi" are JMA and JMB, respectively. The tests happened of JMA/B are listed like below:

    * JMA: Land-based tests, 3 times; launched from a base in Shanxi, most likely the Taiyuan Satellite Launch Center or nearby; 2001; successful.
    * JMB: Sea-based, 8 times; launched near Dalian, by the modified Golf-class diesel-powered ballistic missile submarine; 2002; successful.
    "

    [Note: LethalForce, I must leave now. However, I enjoyed our chat.]
     
  17. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Wikipedia is not a reliable source all intelligence reports say the Chinese SLBM tests have failed.

    http://www.freerepublic.com/focus/f-news/2437433/posts?q=1&;page=55

    China is not a blue water navy. China does not keep nukes assembled for use in short order. China has signed FMCT and has not produced fissile material for over a decade so how will your numbers be reached without violating FMCT??
     
  18. sandeepdg

    sandeepdg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Martian, the strategic offensive reduction treaty envisages the reduction of only deployed warheads, to between 1500-2200 each for both US and Russia by 2012. They do not address the issue of warheads in the hedge/contingency stockpile, which accounts for nearly 5000 warheads in US armory and nearly 8000 warheads in Russian armory. Even by your estimates on Chinese warhead development, which are more fascinating than true, it will take China 17 years to match America's dormant nuke stockpile and 27 years to match Russia's dormant nuke stockpile.

    http://www.brookings.edu/projects/archive/nucweapons/50.aspx
     
  19. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    Washington Times and other sources report successful Julang 2 SLBM tests

    This is the first time that I have ever heard of the extraordinary claim that "all intelligence reports say the Chinese SLBM tests have failed." You are claiming that China has built multiple Type 094 submarines and equipped them with Julang 2 missiles that don't work. That doesn't make any sense.

    http://www.washingtontimes.com/news/2005/jun/21/20050621-102521-5027r/

    "China advances missile program
    By Bill Gertz
    10:25 p.m., Tuesday, June 21, 2005

    China has successfully flight-tested a submarine-launched missile that U.S. officials say marks a major advance in Beijing's long-range nuclear program.

    "This is a significant milestone in their effort to develop strategic weapons," said a U.S. official familiar with reports of the test.

    U.S. intelligence agencies monitored the flight test of a JL-2 missile about 10 days ago, officials said.

    The missile was launched from a Chinese submarine near the port of Qingdao and was tracked to a desert impact point in western China several thousand miles away, the officials said.

    The Air Force's National Air Intelligence Center reported that the JL-2 "will, for the first time, allow Chinese [missile submarines] to target portions of the United States from operating areas located near the Chinese coast."

    The JL-2 is estimated to have a range of up to 6,000 miles, enough to hit targets in the United States.

    A defense official said the missile test was a major step forward in China's strategic nuclear missile program and shows an improved capability to produce and launch submarine-launched missiles. "It was a successful test," this official said.

    The JL-2 is a submarine version of the DF-31 land-based missile."

    http://www.softwar.net/dongfeng.html

    "The Julang 2 missile was successfully tested by the PLA Navy in Jan. 2001 and a successful test of the undersea launch system was conducted in October 2001. This system is planned for installation on the Type 94 SLBM submarine at Huludao. Each PLA Navy "boomer" is designed to carry 12 JL-2 missiles in a sail like configuration similar to Russian designed Delta class boats. The first JL-2 armed Type 94 is expected to be operational in 2008."

    http://www.ifpa.org/pdf/IWGbriefcharts.pdf

    [On page 19 of the 75-page report]

    "China has an active and robust ballistic missile program
    o ~ Thirty Dong-feng 5 and Dong-feng 31 ICBMs, ~ 110 intermediate range

    Dong-feng 4, Dong-feng 3, and Dong-feng 21 missiles
    Upgrading existing arsenal with Dong-feng 31 solid-fueled ICBM
    o Incorporates Multiple independently-targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV)
    technology designed to defeat primitive anti-missile systems
    o Rail-mobile variants under development

    Successfully flight-tested submarine-launched version of the
    Dong-feng 31, the Julang 2, with 9,600 kilometer range
    "
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2010
  20. Martian

    Martian Respected Member Senior Member

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    China could not have signed FMCT because "the treaty has not been negotiated"

    I disagree with your claim that China has signed FMCT. "The [FMCT] treaty has not been negotiated and its terms remain to be defined."

    http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Fissile_Material_Cut-off_Treaty

    "The Fissile Material Cutoff Treaty (FMCT) is a proposed international treaty to prohibit the further production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other explosive devices. The treaty has not been negotiated and its terms remain to be defined. According to a proposal by the United States, fissile material includes high-enriched uranium and plutonium (except plutonium that is over 80% Pu-238). According to a proposal by Russia, fissile material would be limited to weapons-grade uranium (with more than 90% U-235) and plutonium (with more than 90% Pu-239). Neither proposal would prohibit the production of fissile material for non-weapons purposes, including use in civil or naval nuclear reactors.[1]

    In a 27 September 1993 speech before the UN, President Clinton called for a multilateral convention banning the production of fissile materials for nuclear explosives or outside international safeguards. In December 1993 the UN General Assembly adopted resolution 48/75L calling for the negotiation of a "non-discriminatory, multilateral and international effectively verifiable treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices." The Geneva based Conference on Disarmament (CD) on 23 March 1995 agreed to a establish a committee to negotiate "a non-discriminatory, multilateral and internationally and effectively verifiable treaty banning the production of fissile material for nuclear weapons or other nuclear explosive devices."[2]. However, substantive negotiations have not taken place.

    In 2004, the United States announced that it opposed the inclusion of a verification mechanism in the treaty on the grounds that the treaty could not be effectively verified. On November 4, 2004. the United States cast the sole vote in the First Committee of the United Nations General Assembly against a resolution (A/C.1/59/L.34) calling for negotiation of an effectively verifiable treaty. The Bush Administration supported a treaty but advocated an ad hoc system of verification wherein states would monitor the compliance of other states through their own national intelligence mechanisms. [3]

    On April 5, 2009, U.S. President Barack Obama reversed the U.S. position on verification and proposed to negotiate "a new treaty that verifiably ends the production of fissile materials intended for use in state nuclear weapons." On May 29, 2009, the CD agreed to establish an FMCT negotiating committee,[4] However, Pakistan blocked the CD from implementing its agreed program of work, despite severe pressure from the major nuclear powers to end its defiance of 64 other countries in blocking international ban on the production of new nuclear bomb-making material, as well as discussions on full nuclear disarmament, the arms race in outer space, and security assurances for non-nuclear states.[5]"
     
    Last edited: Aug 15, 2010
  21. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    Don't know about its successful launches except one, but I do know...

    Surface launch in 2004 = failure
    First submerged launch in 2006 = failure
    Test launch in 2008 = failure

    And the latest

    2010 launch = failure


    China: SLBM Test Launch Failed (fell back to sub and almost sank it)


    A few months ago in Yellow Sea, China conducted a secret test launch of Julang-2 SLBM, but failed, according to Jan. 25 report by Liberty Times of Taiwan.

    The missile with the range of 8,000 km, which can strike U.S. mainland, was mounted on a Golf-class submarine, and launched from underwater. However, after breaking out of water, its booster failed to fire up, and fell back down on the submarine.

    The submarine with 83 crews and displacement of 2,880 tons was hit by the missile weighing 10 tons, and was almost sunk. Still it managed to limp back to its base.

    Ten years ago, PLAN developed Julang-2 by modifying Dongfeng-31 ICBM, and successfully conducted the surface launch, but a few attempt of underwater launch all failed.

    As a result, Type 094(Jin-class) submarine, China's newest model, is so far unable to be equip itself with its own SLBM's, leaving a big hole in China's offensive nuclear capability, according to the newspaper.

    They succeeded in the test launch of Julang-1 from Type 092(Xia-class) submarine, hitting a target in Taklamakan Desert, but its range is only 2,000 km and this class of submarine mostly moves within coastal waters, which is why they decided to develop Julang-2.

    http://www.libertytimes.com.tw/2010/new/jan/25/today-p8.htm
     

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