China's March exports shrink 15% y/y in shock fall Reuters

Discussion in 'China' started by Rashna, Apr 13, 2015.

  1. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    China's March exports shrink 15% y/y in shock fall



    BEIJING: China's export sales contracted 15% in March while import shipments fell at their sharpest rate since the 2009 global financial crisis, a shock outcome that deepens concern about sputtering Chinese economic growth.

    The tumble in exports - the worst in about a year - compared with expectations for a 12% rise and could heighten worries about how a rising yuan has hurt demand for Chinese goods and services abroad, analysts said.

    In a sign that domestic demand was also tepid, imports into the world's second-biggest economy shrunk 12.7% last month from a year ago, the General Administration of Customs said on Monday.

    That was the biggest slump in imports since May 2009, and compared with a Reuters poll forecast for a 11.7% drop.

    "It's a very bad number that was much worse than expectations," Louis Kuijs, an economist at RBS in Hong Kong, said in reference to the export data.

    "It leads to warning flags both on global demand and China's competitiveness."

    Read more at:

    China's March exports shrink 15% y/y in shock fall - The Times of India
     
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  3. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    The main problem is their exports to Europe. Euro has dropped by almost 15% against major currencies worldwide.

    However their imports have also slowed down, that to me is a bigger concern. This signals a slowing down of the Chinese juggernaut and will put a strain on the global economy. Direct result will be further weakening of commodity prices which will benefit India.
     
  4. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    I am sure the Chinese posters will have a plausible explanation and some may go to the extent that it is of the genre of false and motivated news.
    @nimo_cn @ t_co
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
  5. Compersion

    Compersion Senior Member Senior Member

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    Read more at: Grab opportunities; buy first, research later: Jhunjhunwala - Moneycontrol.com
     
  6. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    Russia imports are down 45% in one year. I have not seen EU figures, but very likely that imports into EU are down too. The lower price of oil cuts down the import figure for oil importing countries as well as oil exporting countries.

    There will be a reduction in imports in most countries - driven primarily by lower value of oil.
     
  7. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    Russian imports are down due to the sanctions on it.
     
  8. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    Music to my ears
    Weak commodity prices + cheap labor -------------> Manufacturing in India
    Now we just need to reform labor law.
     
  9. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    @Rowdy our labour is not really cheap. the skilled labour we have is very expensive and there is a shortage of skilled labour in India.

    There was a CII study on Sector Skill circle-Logistics. Some of the figures are mind boggling.

    1. In the next 15 years there will be shortage of 5 million Drivers.
    2. Overall in Transportation, Warehousing and Logistics there will be an incremental growth requirement of 17.3 million skilled people.

    http://ddugky.gov.in/DocumentsForDownload/Logistics SSC.ppt
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
    Singh likes this.
  10. Rowdy

    Rowdy Co ja kurwa czytam! Senior Member

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    We need something like the German "Ausbildung" system.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 11, 2015
  11. sgarg

    sgarg Senior Member Senior Member

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    I believe it is due to lack of money. You need to pay for imports. Whoever is dependent on oil will buy less. Whoever is importing oil has to pay less. This is opposite of inflation called deflation.
     
  12. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    Yes that is also a factor.
     
  13. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    That is not the shock, every nation goes through economic reforms and slows down.
     
  14. shiphone

    shiphone Senior Member Senior Member

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    oh................some funny comments based on hopeless ignorance to this BIG world...
    ------------------

    total good trade volume of other economic entities during Jan-Feb 2015.

    1. South Korea...

    Export: -2.1%
    Import: -15.2%
    Total: -8.6%

    2. Chile

    Export: -2.3%
    Import: -19.5%
    Total: -11%

    3. German

    Export: -14.4%
    Import: -16.3%
    Total: -15.2%

    4. Russia

    Export: -25.4%
    Import: -37.9%

    5. Japan

    Export: -4.9%
    Import: -18.7%
    Total: -12.7%

    6. Mexico

    Export: -2.2%
    Import: -1.6%
    Total: -1.9%

    7. India

    Export: -13%
    Import: -13.4%


    -------------

    China... Jan-Mar

    Export: 4.7%
    Import: -17.6%
    Total: -6.3%
     
    Last edited: Apr 17, 2015
  15. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    We are in April now. And the article clearly states this is march exports.



    [​IMG]

    http://www.zerohedge.com/news/2015-04-12/china-trade-surplus-crashes-exports-imports-collapse-march

     
  16. shiphone

    shiphone Senior Member Senior Member

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    LOL... can't read? ...some nations' statistical departments are very slow in the work...

    -----------------
    BTW, another economic entity with the good trade data of March published..

    ROC, Taiwan Jan-Mar

    Export: -4.2%
    Import: -15%
    Total: -9.3%
    ------------------
    the first quarter is always a disordered period for the statistics due to the variable Lunar new year long Holidays. each year..
    the export growth rate of the first 3 months of year 2015

    Jan : -3.3%
    Feb: 48.3%
    Mar: -15%

    the export growth rate of the first 3 months of year 2014

    Jan : 10%
    Feb: -18.1%
    Mar: -6.6%
     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2015
  17. Rashna

    Rashna Senior Member Senior Member

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    So what are you loffing about? It is a fact that China's exports have sharply fallen in March. Nothing to loff about, china didn't meet its growth targets and yuan is forcing a drop in exports. The tea party is ending.

     
  18. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    China is really up a gum tree?

    Just can't believe it!

    They were so recently romping around gleefully 'conquering' the world.

    Very disappointing news, if for none else, at least for China.
     
  19. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    China’s Slumping Trade Account
    Domestic and international factors are driving significant changes in imports and exports.

    With an appreciating currency and weakness in the eurozone, China experienced an export slowdown in March, despite gains made in February. Imports have declined in the face of sluggish GDP growth, which in the first quarter of 2015 was 7 percent, the slowest in six years.
    China’s trade surplus has hit a thirteen-month low, signaling that robustness in its trade regime is being checked by weak demand.

    One obstacle to China’s export growth is that the RMB, loosely pegged to the dollar and a basket of currencies, has appreciated alongside the dollar against the euro. This has made Chinese exports less attractive to Europeans and, coupled with Europe’s ongoing economic woes, has slowed Chinese exports to the eurozone. While Europe is said to be recovering from the debt crisis that has hobbled the region for years, its imports overall have remained at a relatively constant rate since 2011. Analysts are uncertain when the dollar will stop appreciating, with some predicting that the dollar will continue to rise into 2017. As long as China favors the dollar in its exchange rate regime and the dollar continues to appreciate, exports from China will continue to look expensive to Europe and other nations.

    Imports of some commodities into China have sagged due to slowing industrial production. Goods to be processed in China and exported to the rest of the world also pitched downward, as indicated by exports to Hong Kong, through which many processed goods flow. Chinese New Year occurred at the end of February, slowing economic activity around this period, but this does not fully account for the poor trade performance.

    U.S. exports to and imports from China decreased in February, falling by 14 percent and 8.7 percent, respectively.
    Imports of automobiles and auto parts from China fell by 22 percent. U.S. imports from China were down by 8 percent in March. Japanese exports to China also slowed, contracting by 17.3 percent year on year in February and 24.8 percent in March.

    While it is a myth that China’s growth relies mainly on the production of exports, exports do contribute about 26 percent to China’s GDP growth, so that a slowdown in exports has a moderate to strong impact on GDP. The numbers directly impact GDP, and also generate anxiety among market makers about China’s economic future; for example, the Australian dollar fell almost 1.5 percent on China’s trade news, since China is a large consumer of Australia’s natural resources. Despite assurances by China’s leadership that China’s slower expansion is a healthy sign of the “New Normal,” the markets appear not to be fully convinced by this.

    China’s future hinges in large part on its restructuring agenda. As such, China is attempting to move up the export value chain, and has increased exports of technology-intensive goods such as smartphones and transportation vehicles. While most of China’s high-tech export products are assembled rather than fully produced in China, home-grown technology companies are being encouraged. High-technology manufacturing will, over time, result in higher-paid jobs, higher value of production and exports, and commercial innovation. This will hopefully increase China’s export value, in time. In the short run, until China’s economy bottoms out, Europe really rebounds, and the dollar slows its ascent, we may see more surprises in the trade figures. Beijing will no doubt be hoping they won’t be as shocking as they were this time around.

    China’s Slumping Trade Account | The Diplomat

    ===

    Innovation is one primary area for sustained economic growth than assembly... Oh...Well!!!
     
  20. sorcerer

    sorcerer Senior Member Senior Member

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    China not disappointing on the Shrink..It Shrinks again in April :D

    China factory activity disappoints again, hopes pinned on U.S. and Europe

    (Reuters) - Manufacturing activity in Asia's top two economic powerhouses slowed further in April, a disappointing outcome that calls for yet more stimulus and puts pressure on the United States and Europe to do more of the heavy lifting to drive global growth.

    The flash HSBC/Markit Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for China fell to a one-year low of 49.2, from 49.6, pushing deeper below the 50-point level that is supposed to separate growth from contraction.

    "The worse-than-expected PMI suggests downside risks to China's 2015 growth outlook," analysts at Barclays wrote in a note to clients.

    "We believe downside risks to growth and inflation are materializing given the disappointing Q1 growth rate, and maintain our below-consensus 6.8 percent growth forecast for 2015."

    The soggy outcome illustrated why the People's Bank of China (PBOC) on Sunday cut the amount of cash that banks must hold as reserves to help spur lending.

    It slashed the reserve requirements by a bigger-than-expected 100 basis points (bps).

    "We continue to call for two more 50 bps reserve requirement ratio cuts and three more 25 bps benchmark rate cuts over the rest of the year," Nomura analysts said in a research report.

    Hopes of yet more stimulus have helped sparked a massive rally in the local share market. The CSI300 index .CSI300 of the largest listed companies in Shanghai and Shenzhen has risen over 30 percent so far this year.

    It briefly scaled a fresh seven-year peak of 4,767.9 in the wake of the survey, but has since drifted off the high.

    The report was not all bad with overseas demand picking up in April and new export work rising for the first time in three months.

    A separate survey showed Japan's PMI slid to 49.7 from 50.3 in April as new orders continued to shrink and manufacturing production fell for the first time since July 2014.

    Yet the rate of decline for production was only fractional and encouragingly employment returned to growth.

    "Meanwhile, reports of a favorable yen/dollar rate continued to help improve price competitiveness, as companies noted a rise in new export orders for the tenth consecutive month," said Amy Brownbill, an economist at Markit.

    The result is unlikely to drive the Bank of Japan (BOJ) into action. The BOJ has steadfastly maintained its outlook for a recovery that will keep the economy on track to hit the central bank's 2 percent inflation goal over time.

    At next week's policy review, the BOJ is expected to hold off on expanding its already massive monetary stimulus but may lower its inflation forecasts.

    All eyes are now on PMI surveys for the euro zone, with forecasts for the Markit's flash Eurozone Composite PMI centering on a more encouraging reading of 54.4, up from 54.0.

    In the United States, the factory sector is expected to continue expanding in April, albeit at a slightly slower pace. The Markit's flash U.S. manufacturing PMI is seen at 55.5 versus 55.7 in March. ECONG7

    (Writing by Ian Chua in SYDNEY; Additional reporting by Stanley White in TOKYO and Nathaniel Taplin in SHANGHAI; Editing by Jacqueline Wong)
    China factory activity disappoints again, hopes pinned on U.S. and Europe | Reuters
     
  21. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    I am sure the Chinese will howl that this is a West sponsored propaganda to do down the greatness of China.
     

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