China's era of high growth rates is over: Chinese Economists

[nrj]

BEIJING: The era of double digit high growth rate of China for over three decades that made it the world's second largest economy is over and it has to settle for declining GDP and rise in trade deficit from now on, Chinese economists have warned.

China's GDP could go down to around 8 per cent, as it is set to revamp its economic system to adjust to global downturn of exports, the main stay of its economic rise, Li Yang, vice- president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank, said yesterday, at a forum held by Caixin Media, a business news group here.

The coming slowdown will be a normal outcome as the continuous global downturn hurts China's exports, while it is striving to adjust to the development pattern based more on domestic consumption, Li said.

He said the country's annual average growth rate is likely to slow to between 8 and 8.5 per cent in the coming 10 years, while expecting the country's annual trade surplus to account for less than 2 per cent of its GDP this year.

For over three decades, China has posted over 10 per cent of GDP. Its GDP expanded 10. 4 per cent in 2010 as it emerged second largest after US over taking Japan.

The growth slowed to 9.1 per cent in the third quarter of this year from 9.5 per cent in the second quarter and 9.7 per cent in the first quarter.

Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Centre of the State Council, said China will head towards a lower growth rate over the next few years but the slowdown "is nothing but a good thing", as it marked the end of the industrialisation phase.

China will post an annual growth of above 9 per cent this year and should be able to maintain growth of around 8.5 per cent next year, Liu said.

Stabilising economic growth should remain a major target for the government in the coming years, he said.

He warned some risks that were previously accommodated by high growth but could be unleashed when growth cooled.

These risks included local government debts, property price fluctuation, and massive losses that might appear in industries that had excess production capacity.

China's era of high growth rates is over: Economists - The Economic Times

 

[Rahul92]

What about Indian era ??:shocked::shocked:

 

[ejazr]

For over three decades, China has posted over 10 per cent of GDP. Its GDP expanded 10. 4 per cent in 2010 as it emerged second largest after US over taking Japan.

That is wrong. In 2010, India had a GDP growth rate of 10.4% beating China's 10.3% according to the World Bank data.

 

[ace009]

This is interesting read ...

View attachment Portfolio_ Eurozone Debt Crisis Reveals China's Economic Weakness.pdf

I would like to see some thoughtful comments from our Chinese friends.

 

[no smoking]

Good, it is a perfect time to slow down.

 

[hbogyt]

For over three decades, China has posted over 10 per cent of GDP. Its GDP expanded 10. 4 per cent in 2010 as it emerged second largest after US over taking Japan.

That is wrong. In 2010, India had a GDP growth rate of 10.4% beating China's 10.3% according to the World Bank data.

Are you sure? I checked the statistics by country on the World Bank website, and it quoted a GDP growth of 9.7% for 2010 for India.

 

[Ray]

Things will look up and China will be off to another roaring start once the world economy gets doing.

 

[cir]

The India growth story is taking a turn for the worse (see the latest IIP figures for evidence), the government now revised down to under 8%, while the Chinese forecast a 7% increase in GDP and is likely to achieve circa 9.5% for 2011. The reality is far from rosy: 7% tops.

By the way, India is experiencing a jobless growth, a growth that is NOT sustainable.

Any guess on India's growth 2012-2013? Less than 7% is my take. And the rupee will continue to depreciate against the dollar.

 

[Rage]

China's era of high GDP growth is good for atleast another 10 years. If anything, it will be the Chinese govt that first takes concerted steps to decelerate growth once a point arrives where it judges the inflation priority to be higher than the employment one. They will do that by giving specific stimulii to specific tertiary-sector industries, to create a larger pool of HNW individuals, while reforming the investment and banking sector, and marketing practices and probably doing away with mobility restrictions phase-wise. Don't discount China's growth story just yet.

 

[badguy2000]

Until CHinese per capital GDP rises to 15K USD,CHinese economy would still keep high growth

of course, when CHinese per capital GDP rises to 15K USD,CHinese economy would slow down gradually, just as Japan and S.,Korea did.....and at that time ,CHina would be a developed economy too,and it needs not such high growth any more.

 

[aimarraul]

China to head towards mild growth

China to head towards mild growthUpdated: 2011-11-14 09:20(Xinhua)

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BEIJING - Despite a fast economic growth China registered during the past years, economists projected the country to experience a lower pace of growth over the next few years.

The coming slowdown will be a normal outcome as the continuous global downturn hurts China's exports while the country striving to adjust its development pattern to wean the economy off its reliance on exports, said Li Yang, vice president of the Chinese Academy of Social Sciences, a government think tank.

The two trends will continue in the coming years and weigh on exports, one of the three major engines that power China's fast expansion -- exports, investment and consumption, Li said Saturday at a forum held by Caixin Media, a business news group in China.

He said the country's annual average growth rate is likely to slow to between 8 and 8.5 percent in the coming 10 years, while expecting the country's annual trade surplus to account for less than 2 percent of its GDP this year.

Liu Shijin, deputy director of the Development Research Center of the State Council, also believed China will head towards a lower growth rate over the next few years, saying the slowdown "is nothing but a good thing," which marked the end of industrialization phase.

China will post an annual growth of above 9 percent this year and should be able to maintain growth of around 8.5 percent next year, Liu said.

Stabilizing economic growth should remain a major target for the government in the coming years, he said.

He warned some risks that were previously accommodated by high growth but could be unleashed when growth cooled.

These risks included local government debts, property price fluctuation, and massive losses that might appear in industries that had excess production capacity.

China's GDP expanded 10.4 percent year-on-year in 2010.

Its GDP growth slowed to 9.1 percent in the third quarter of this year from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first quarter.

 

[aimarraul]

China's 2012 GDP growth to slow to 9.2 pct: report

China's 2012 GDP growth to slow to 9.2 pct: report
(Xinhua)10:31, November 20, 2011 BEIJING, Nov. 20 (Xinhua) -- China's economy is expected to grow 9.2 percent in 2012, a slight drop from 9.4 percent this year, a university report forecast, raising concerns on slowdown and financial risks.

China's economic expansion will continue the easing trend in the first half of next year, according to a report released by the Beijing-based Renmin University of China on Saturday.

Growth of China's gross domestic product (GDP) slowed to 9.1 percent in the third quarter of this year from 9.5 percent in the second quarter and 9.7 percent in the first quarter, as the government tightened monetary policy to contain inflation.

To rein in excessive price gains triggered by a credit boom, the government has made inflation control its top priority this year and adopted monetary-tightening measures. So far, the central bank has raised interest rates three times and hiked reserve requirement ratio (RRR) by six times this year.

The weakening growth has promoted the central bank to stand ready to fine-tone its monetary policy in an appropriate and timely manner to stay in line with economic changes.

The continuous economic slowdown will lead to a significant shift in the government's macroeconomic policies, which will buoy the economy to avoid a double-dip recession, the report said.

China will face bigger slowdown in growth of real economy, rising risks in fictitious economy and worsening structure problems next year, it said.

The report said China inflation will see a marked softening next year, with full-year rise at 3.3 percent.

The nation's consumer price index (CPI), the main gauge of inflation, increased 5.5 percent in October year-on-year, marking the slowest rise since May.