China's best underground agent-- Gordon Chang.

Discussion in 'China' started by cinoti, Dec 26, 2012.

  1. cinoti

    cinoti Tihar Jail Banned

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    Forget the Data, Chinese GDP Is Actually Near Zero Says Gordon Chang
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    A familiar retort that has been used by both sides during the election season is that ''the math just doesn't add up'' when challenging the fiscal reality or financial feasibility of a particular candidate's claim or plan.
    And so it is with Gordon Chang, author of The Coming Collapse of China and contributor to Forbes Magazine, whenever he looks at China's official GDP results, in which the most recent data showed Q3 GDP rising 7.4%, or today's HSBC Flash PMI data which rose to a 3-month high of 49.1. While still below 50, and technically reflecting contraction, the word from the mainland is one of encouragement and that worst is over.
    ''It just doesn't make sense," Chang says in the attached video, claiming that the true number is probably zero or 1%. "This number is not consistent with what we know about the Chinese economy."
    Not only does he say that GDP growth of that magnitude would coincide with comparable increases in electricity consumption, he says it also doesn't jibe with a report that showed a 3% decline in wholesale and seems out of whack with with inflation that's slipped below 2%.
    "It doesn't compute," Chang says, arguing that the average monthly increase in electricity production was 2.1%, adding that it historically outpaces GDP and has been among the most reliable economic barometers, too.
    Another area of concern for Chang is the potential for unrest. While the saga surrounding workers at the Foxconn factories where Apple gadgets are made has been well covered, Chang says it barely touches on what is happening on a broader scale.
    "Across Chinese society, the one factor that people always talk about is the anger," he says. But the reality is that the central government in Beijing no longer produces statistics on uprisings and protests, which by his estimates are now probably occurring at a rate that is ''north of 200,000 per year."
    And finally, he's awaiting the results of China's once-a-decade process of selecting new leadership when the 18th Communist Party Congress begins on November 8. From Chang's perspective, the country known for its ironclad one party rule could be entering what's locally referred to as a period of "two suns in the sky." By this he means a new leader may have to share the spotlight with current President Hu Jintao, who is reputed to want to linger in the limelight after his term has officially ended. In addition, he says former President Jiang Zemin may even resurface as a "third sun," further complicating any transition and muddying the authority and message of the new leader.

    don't you guys like it?

    [video]http://d.yimg.com/nl/techticker/breakout/player.swf[/video]
     
    Last edited: Dec 26, 2012
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  3. cinoti

    cinoti Tihar Jail Banned

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  4. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    now, the 2013 edition of The Coming Collapse of China: 2012 Edition will surely come out
     
  5. niharjhatn

    niharjhatn Regular Member

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    Meh, like many journalists of his type, he takes a bunch of half truths and cleverly disguises it to become a 'report'.

    I don't get why you guys get so worked up over crap like this. In a world of free media you are inevitably going to get a lot of crap. You have to critically filter the information you get.
     
  6. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well, Gordon Chang's "the coming collapse of CHina" and Bin Laden misled USA and disttract USA's attention from CHina....

    it successfully win 1 decade(2001-2011) for CHina,during the decade, China sucessfully emerged from world NO.7 ecnomy to NO.2....
     
  7. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    God damn it, you are destroying our most valuable agent in USA. Shame on you!!!!
     
  8. Impluseblade

    Impluseblade Regular Member

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    Congratulations to Gordon Chang! "The 10 Worst Predictions for 2012"
    The 10 Worst Predictions for 2012 - By Joshua E. Keating | Foreign Policy

    The Coming Collapse of China (Redux) --Gordon Chang

    "Not long ago, everything was going well for the mandarins in Beijing. Now, nothing is. So, yes, my prediction was wrong. Instead of 2011, the mighty Communist Party of China will fall in 2012. Bet on it." --Dec. 29, 2011

    Author and commentator Gordon Chang made the list last year for his 2001 book, The Coming Collapse of China, which predicted that Communist Party rule would fall in 2011. Chang acknowledged that he had jumped the gun, but in an article for Foreign Policy, he simply moved his prediction forward one year. Nevertheless, despite a year of transition, scandal, and uncertainty, the mandarins in Beijing are still there.
     
  9. cinoti

    cinoti Tihar Jail Banned

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    Darn!~ he is exposed. such a big loss of China.
     
    Last edited: Dec 27, 2012
  10. Broccoli

    Broccoli Regular Member

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    Chang was one of the guys who claimed that North-Koreans sold Chinese DF-31 ICBM's to Iran, and in many news sites he's been presented as a "nuclear expert".

    Like here... how ridiculous is this?
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  11. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Gordon is doing this for a living. His failed predictions must have done damages to his academic credibility repeatedly.

    But there're still so many who'd readily (pretend to ) buy in his theory That's interesting and worth pondering.
     
  12. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    Gordon could sell his theory well only because there is enormous demand. Not everyone is happy to see a growing China.
     

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