China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

[Martian]

Regarding posting no. 32 by Martian and the picture of a "DF-5": This is in fact a missile like the Julang I or Julang II launched from a submarine and NOT a DF-5.

If persons from a "Center for Defense Information" cannot see that difference I have doubts about the quality of the intelligence of all the other claims. In my opininion what we know from satellite pictures is only a fraction of what there is. Also Chinese cruise missiles should be included when counting the number of launchers.

The claim by the "Center for Defense Information" is correct. See the citation below regarding the National Intelligence Council estimate from December 2001.

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Chapter 2: Chinese Perspectives on Space Weapons | American Academy of Arts & Sciences

"In the most recent NIE estimate, China is projected to have about 75–100 ICBMs by 2015.[86]
...
86. National Intelligence Council, 'NIE: Foreign Missile Development and the Ballistic Missile Threat through 2015,' December 2001."

 

[Martian]

In December 2001, the United States National Intelligence Council forecast 75-100 Chinese DF-5 ICBMs by 2015. Their forecast was accurate. My current best estimate is 96 DF-5A/B ICBMs (in eight brigades).

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National Intelligence Council | Federation of American Scientists

Foreign Missile Developments and the Ballistic Missile Threat Through 2015, unclassified summary of a National Intelligence Estimate, December 2001.

If you have trouble reading the small text, here's the quote:

"The Intelligence Community projects that Chinese ballistic missile forces will increase several-fold by 2015, but Beijing's future ICBM force deployed primarily against the United States�which will number around 75 to 100 warheads�will remain considerably smaller and less capable than the strategic missile forces of Russia and the United States.� "

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[DBF1954]

There seems to be a misunderstanding. I just disagree with the picture used to illustrate a DF-5 and not with the numbers in posting number 32.

See original text: "Regarding posting no. 32 by Martian and the picture of a "DF-5": This is in fact a missile like the Julang I or Julang II launched from a submarine and NOT a DF-5."

On a related topic:
Researching such a subject is always a work in progress and from my point of view the unit in Datong has its launch site in Haiyan. Just check the road distance between those two places. In Xining as a provincial capital no missiles are stationed but it just serves as a HQ of the Second Artillery units in Qinghai province. Looking then at possible targets from Haiyan with a DF 21 it could only be India.

 

[shiphone]

that's a Trident II-D5 launch...so obviously.