China's 294 megatons of thermonuclear deterrence

Martian

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Best photographs of China's JL-2 8-MIRVed SLBM and DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM


"Submarine launch of JL-2 SLBM"

Source: SLBM | Errymath's

Original Chinese source: 中国十天内进行两种新型洲际核导弹发射试验_军事_环球网

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"The PLA Second Artillery Corps, China's strategic missile force, conducted a second test flight of its DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile on Dec. 13, according to the US website Washington Free Beacon."

Source: PLA Conducts 2nd Test Flight of DF-41 ICBM - Threat Journal by AlertsUSA
 

Martian

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Best photographs of China's JL-2 8-MIRVed SLBM and DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM


"Submarine launch of JL-2 SLBM"

Source: SLBM | Errymath's

Original Chinese source: 中国十天内进行两种新型洲际核导弹发射试验_军事_环球网

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"The PLA Second Artillery Corps, China's strategic missile force, conducted a second test flight of its DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missile on Dec. 13, according to the US website Washington Free Beacon."

Source: PLA Conducts 2nd Test Flight of DF-41 ICBM - Threat Journal by AlertsUSA
 

Martian

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How to distinguish between a Chinese DF-31A 3-MIRVed ICBM and a DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM

A common question is: "How do you distinguish between a DF-31A ICBM carried on a mobile TEL from a DF-41 ICBM?"

The answer is actually pretty simple. It is very hard to tell the difference by looking at the missile canister. You have to focus on the mobile TEL.

The mobile TEL for the DF-31A has a group of four wheels in the back with two groups of two wheels in the front. In contrast, the mobile TEL for the DF-41 has all eight wheels clustered together with even spacing between the wheels.


Look at the white-wall tires on the DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL. There is a distinctive pattern of two groups of two wheels in the front half of the truck and a group of four wheels in the back of the truck.

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The wheels on the DF-41 ICBM mobile TEL are tightly clustered together with even spacing.
 

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Comprehensive guide to identifying a Chinese DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM


This is a Chinese DF-31A 3-MIRVed ICBM mobile TEL from the 2009 Chinese Military Parade. Everyone agrees on this. Notice the canister is short and is placed entirely behind the truck cabin.

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This is a Chinese DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM. On the left side of the picture, it sticks out beyond the truck like a DF-31A. However, on the right side of the picture, the missile canister extends beyond the truck bed. Since it is much longer and can carry more fuel, the DF-41 is clearly a larger missile.

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This is a picture of the DF-41 ICBM, because the wheel pattern is the same as the DF-41 picture above. You can't see it from this angle, but the missile extends beyond the middle of the truck cabin in the front.

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DF-41 seen on a public road. Look carefully at the unique double-ring with multiple horizontal bars near the end of the DF-41 canister. It is the same design in this picture and the first DF-41 picture above.

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Now, things get tricky. Some people get confused from this point forward.


DF-41 undergoing tests. Notice the missile canister extends beyond the front of the truck cabin. You can see the bright rectangular headlight on the front right-side of the truck.

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DF-41 spotted on a public road in 2007. You are looking at the front of the truck, NOT the back. The DF-41 missile canister extends beyond the FRONT of the truck cabin. The distinctive rectangular headlights can be easily seen.

If I remember correctly, Hans Kristensen got confused and thought both of the pictures above showed the DF-31A. He said the canister resembled the DF-31A and not the DF-41, which has a double-ring.

In my opinion, Hans didn't realize he was looking at the wrong end of the DF-41 ICBM canister. Both pictures above show the FRONT of the DF-41 and not the back. The superficial resemblance between the front of the DF-41 canister and the back of the DF-31A canister is mere coincidence and has caused confusion. It only means China hired the same company to build the end-cover for its ICBM canisters.

We know both pictures above show the DF-41 ICBM, because the very first DF-41 ICBM picture showed a very long canister that splits the front cabin into two. The superlong DF-41 can only be carried by a truck with the DF-41 canister slung over the middle part of the cabin.

Look carefully at both pictures. The rectangular headlights are in the front. We are looking at the FRONT of the DF-41 ICBM mobile TEL.

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Now, I will explain why Broccoli was confused.


This is a picture of China's DF-41 ICBM, because the superlong missile canister is slung over the middle part of the truck's cabin.

Broccoli didn't realize that every time you see a split cabin, it is a DF-41 ICBM (which is superlong and must extend over the front part of the mobile TEL). Broccoli took a wild guess, because he wasn't focused on the split cabin.

In conclusion, the three unique identifying characteristics of a Chinese DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM mobile TEL canister are a split-cabin in front of the truck to accommodate the superlong front of the missile, double-ring pattern in the back of the canister, and the tightly-grouped evenly-spaced eight truck tires.


I want to add this final picture of China's DF-41 10-MIRVed ICBM to complete the collection of pictures. Obviously, we know it's a DF-41 because of the split-cabin in the front of the truck.
 

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Mechanical computer used for calculations to build China's atomic and hydrogen bombs

China's mechanical computer looks like a "slide rule" integrated with a keypad. It's essentially a specialized hard-coded machine with built-in equations or functions.

The mechanical computer is the mechanical equivalent of an ASIC (ie. application-specific integrated circuit). China probably had thousands or tens of thousands of these units for use by engineers.


Here is a picture of the said "abacus." Also, I would call it a mechanical computer. I took the picture while I was in the China National History Museum for the Road to Renaissance Exhibit. They apparently calculated nine simulated detonations with this thing before they lit the fuse on the big one. (Photo and caption credit: Luhai)

[Note: Thank you to Luhai for taking the picture of the extraordinary Chinese mechanical computer and describing it in the caption.]

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China's Military Technological Milestones - includes China's first flight test of its WS-20 large turbofan high-bypass engine

210 B.C. (2,200 years ago): China invents chrome-plating technology during Qin Dynasty under emperor Qin Shihuang.

1964: China detonated a 22-kiloton atomic bomb on October 16, 1964.

Video of the 22-kiloton Chinese atomic explosion in 1964

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1967: China detonated a 3.3-megaton thermonuclear bomb on June 17, 1967.

Video of the 3.3-megaton Chinese thermonuclear explosion in 1967

1970: China successfully sends its first satellite into space - the Dong Fang Hong I

1971: China successfully launched its first DF-5 ICBM with 12,000-15,000km range and capable of carrying a five-megaton "city buster" thermonuclear warhead.

1972: China builds its first atomic clock at Shanghai Astronomical Observatory (SHAO).

1984: China built its first cryogenic YF-73 rocket engine.

1986: China built an indigenous DD3 nickel-based single-crystal superalloy. (Earliest English article citation is year 1995. However, the first published Chinese research paper on DD3 discovery was in 1986.)

1988: China test-detonates a 1- to 20-kiloton Neutron Bomb on September 29, 1988.
1988: Julang 1 (JL-1) SLBM is fully operational with the successful test firing from a submerged Xia SSBN in September 1988.

1998: Chinese J-10 Vigorous Dragon had its first flight. Officially unveiled in 2007.
1998: "At the 1998 Zhuhai Air Show, the [Chinese] Seek Optics Company displayed information of its stealth coating and software for stealth shaping.[63]"

1999: Chinese JSTARS Tu-154M/D Electronic Intelligence Aircraft in service (e.g. Careless B-4138).

2000: China successfully sends its first GPS satellite (Beidou) into space.

2001: Chinese Type 99 Main Battle Tank in service.

2002: China's Type 093 Shang-class nuclear attack submarine (SSN) is launched.

2003: China sends its first taikonaut Yang Liwei into space.
2003: China's KJ-2000 AWACS with domestic AESA radar has its first flight.
2003*: DD6 is China's indigenous second-generation nickel-based single-crystal superalloy (Earliest English article citation is year 2003. However, actual DD6 discovery was probably closer to year 2000.)

2005: China's Type 052C Lanzhou-class AESA-equipped destroyer entered service.

2006: China's WS-10A turbofan engine certified for production.
2006: First static test of the WS-13 turbofan engine with single-crystal turbine blades.

2007: China clones world's first rabbit.
2007: Chinese direct-ascent ASAT shoots down orbiting satellite.
2007: Chinese DF-31A MIRVed ICBM in service.

2008: China conducts its first spacewalk with taikonaut Zhai Zhigang.
2008: China orbits its first data tracking and relay communications satellite - Tianlian I

2009: Public disclosure of China's 5,000km "Underground Great Wall"

2010: China builds world's-fastest supercomputer Tianhe-1A.
2010: Chinese GBI (i.e. ground based interceptor) shoots down a ballistic missile during mid-course phase.
2010: Chinese WZ-10 Attack Helicopter in service.
2010: Chinese Type 094 Jin-class nuclear missile ballistic submarine (SSBN) in service.
2010: Chinese Yaogan 9 NOSS (Naval Ocean Surveillance System) satellite trio in orbit.

2011: Chengdu J-20 stealth superfighter has first flight on January 11, 2011.

2012: China sends its first woman taikonaut Liu Yang into space on a 10-day mission.
2012: Chinese Jialong manned submersible completes world record-breaking 7,000 meter dive.
2012: First sighting of next-generation AESA radar for Type 052C destroyer.
2012: DF-41 10-MIRV-capable ICBM with 12,000-15,000km range had first flight on July 24, 2012.
2012: Chinese Type 056 corvette enters service.
2012: New Chinese thermonuclear-capable IRBM with 4,000km range (to potentially strike Guam).
2012: China's Beidou System successfully covers all of China and the surrounding region.
2012: Shenyang J-31 medium-range stealth fighter has first flight on October 31, 2012.
2012: China builds its first optical clock (which is more precise than an atomic clock).

2013: China's Y-20 heavy-lift military transport conducts first flight on January 26, 2013.
2013: "The Chinese military has deployed its new anti-ship ballistic missile [ASBM or "carrier killer"] along its southern coast facing Taiwan, the Pentagon's top military intelligence officer said today."
2013: "After a round of successful testing in 2012, the JL-2 appears ready to reach initial operational capability in 2013." (Source [p. 39, Pentagon 2013 report on Chinese Military Power]: http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_China_Report_FINAL.pdf)
2013: China has deployed H-6K "God of War" bomber that is capable of carrying thermonuclear-capable CJ-10 cruise missiles.
2013: Bill Gertz reports China is building 1,240 miles of special tracks for rail-mobile ICBMs.
2013: China deploys advanced SRBM with MARV (maneuverable reentry vehicle) thermonuclear-capable warhead
2013: China's "Lijian stealth UAV from Hongdu has made its first flight on Nov. 21 at 13:00 local time. The flight was 20 minutes."
2013: China's Yutu rover separates from Chang'e-3 Moon Lander on December 14, 2013.
2013: China's Z-20 military medium-lift 10-ton utility helicopter has its first flight on December 23, 2013

2014: China conducts its first HGV (hypersonic glide vehicle) flight on January 9, 2014.
2014: China conducts first flight test of its WS-20 large turbofan high-bypass engine.

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China's WS-20 turbofan high-bypass engine is on the left with the larger diameter. (Photo Credit: Sina)


China's WS-20 high-bypass engine is more fuel efficient than a low-bypass engine. The WS-20 is suitable for transport aircraft where range is important. (Photo Credit: EasyDay)

[Note: Thank you to Shuttler for the photograph credits.]

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China Flies First Large Turbofan | AIN Online

"China Flies First Large Turbofan
by David Donald
AIN Defense Perspective » January 17, 2014


The first flight test example of the WS-20 turbofan is seen on the port inboard pylon of an Il-76 testbed. (Photo: via Chinese Internet)

Photos have appeared on Chinese websites of an Ilyushin Il-76 testbed fitted with a large high-bypass-ratio turbofan under the port inner pylon. The engine is believed to be the WS-20 (also reported as WS-118), which is under development as a possible powerplant for the Xian Y-20 airlifter. The prototype Y-20s, the first of which flew on January 26 last year, are powered by the NPO Saturn D-30KP-2 imported from Russia. This engine is also used by the Il-76 itself, and by China's H-6K missile-carrying bomber.

While the performance of the 26,500-pound-thrust D-30KP-2 is adequate for initial flight-testing of the Y-20, and perhaps limited initial operational use, it is not powerful enough for ultimate requirements set for the Y-20. To meet those needs, at least three powerplant programs have been mentioned as potential engines for the production airlifter, which is scheduled to enter service in 2017.

Shenyang-Liming has been developing the WS-20, using the core of the WS-10A fighter engine as a basis. This engine, though it has gone through many troubles, is now in production for the J-11B, a Chinese development of the Sukhoi Su-27 "Flanker." The relative maturity of the WS-10A core has given the WS-20 a lead in terms of development of a large fan engine, although it may still not deliver the desired power levels.

Two other programs that may be applicable to the Y-20 are the 30,000-pound-thrust ACAE CJ-1000A, primarily intended to power the Comac C919 regional airliner, and the SF-A engine. The latter is under development at Xian and is based on the WS-15 fighter engine core.

In any case, flight testing of the WS-20 represents a major milestone for Chinese industry, as it is the first indigenous high-bypass-ratio powerplant to take to the air. China's aero engine industry has been struggling to match the technological achievements of other areas of the country's aerospace sector. The advanced metallurgy required to fabricate efficient high-temperature blades has reportedly been lacking, and help has been sought from outside."
 
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Martian

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China's DF-5, DF-5A, and DF-5B ICBMs

1. China's DF-5 ICBM was the original thermonuclear deterrent. The DF-5 first flew in 1971 and entered service in 1981. You can watch the May 18, 1980 DF-5 ICBM test for yourself in the video below. The DF-5 has been superseded by the DF-5A and DF-5B ICBMs.


2. China's upgraded DF-5A ICBM has an effective range of 13,000km to 15,000km.

"When the DF-5 was first tested in September 1971, it had a range of 10,000 to 12,000 km which allowed it to threaten the western portions of the United States. Beginning in 1983 the Chinese inaugurated the improved DF-5A, with range increased to over 15,000 km and a more accurate guidance system. The DF-5A upgrade increased the throw-weight of the system from 3,000 kg to 3,200 kg."

There are five ways to increase the range of a missile.

a. Improve the nuclear warhead design and decrease the weight. Seismic tests have proven that China possesses the most advanced W88-equivalent thermonuclear warhead design. China has already optimized its thermonuclear warhead design.

China tested a series of advanced thermonuclear warheads from 1992 to 1996 (see China's Nuclear Testing Program). In 1995, "American experts analyzing [seismic data of] Chinese nuclear test results found similarities to America's most advanced miniature warhead, the W-88."

Reference link: China Stole Nuclear Secrets From Los Alamos, U.S. Officials Say

b. Use the latest generation of semiconductor chips and electronics to reduce the weight of the electronic guidance and control systems. For example, use lightweight fiber optic cables to replace heavier copper cables for data transmission. Given the small size of modern semiconductors and electronics, this avenue of weight reduction has probably run its course for China.

c. Increase the size of the missile. For example, the JL-1 SLBM has a launch weight of 14,700kg and a range of 2,150km. By increasing the size of the JL-2 SLBM to a launch weight of 42,000kg, the JL-2 SLBM has a range of at least 7,200km.

d. Reduce the weight of the ICBM by increasing the use of composite materials. The missile casing is a large part of the overall weight of the ICBM. By replacing as many metal casing parts with lightweight composites, the ICBM will fly further.

e. Improve the specific impulse of the rocket propellant. By researching and developing new rocket fuels with greater energy density, the ICBM can fly further on the same volume of rocket fuel.

3. China's latest DF-5B ICBM carries 10 MIRVed warheads with a half-megaton per warhead.

Since 1999, Richard Fisher has been discussing the Chinese DF-5B MIRVed ICBM. In the latest Pentagon report on Chinese Military Power, the Pentagon acknowledges the existence of the DF-5B/"enhanced DF-5" ICBM (see citation below).

There is a misconception that DF-5B ICBMs are not as useful during a time of war, because it requires two hours to fuel the liquid-fueled DF-5B ICBM. However, during times of increasing conflict, a DF-5B ICBM can be fueled ahead of time and put on stand-by for immediate launch.

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http://www.strategycenter.net/docLib/20121125_FisherLessisNotEnough112512.pdf (page 12 of 28)

"The 2012 China Report does mention an 'enhanced silo-based DF-5,' that could be a reference to the 'DF-5B,' which in 2010 an Asian military source told the author was a new MIRV version of the DF-5. This missile may also be capable of lofting 8 to 10 warheads. A large, detailed order of battle for the PLA that was posted on Chinese web pages in early 2012 indicates that there may already be two brigades, or up to 24 deployed DF-5B missiles.[44]"
 
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China Fields New Intermediate-Range Nuclear Missile | The Washington Free Beacon

"China Fields New Intermediate-Range Nuclear Missile
DF-26C deployment confirmed
BY: Bill Gertz Follow @billGertz
March 3, 2014 4:59 am


Chinese Internet photos first published Feb. 29, 2012 show China's new DF-26C intermediate-range ballistic missile.

U.S. intelligence agencies recently confirmed China's development of a new intermediate-range nuclear missile (IRBM) called the Dongfeng-26C (DF-26C), U.S. officials said.

The new missile is estimated to have a range of at least 2,200 miles—enough for Chinese military forces to conduct attacks on U.S. military facilities in Guam
, a major hub for the Pentagon's shift of U.S. forces to Asia Pacific.

As part of the force posture changes, several thousand Marines now based in Okinawa will be moved to Guam as part of the Asia pivot.

In April, the Pentagon announced it is deploying one of its newest anti-missile systems, the Theater High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) to Guam because of growing missile threats to the U.S. island, located in the South Pacific some 1,600 miles southeast of Japan and 4,000 miles from Hawaii.

And on Feb. 10, the Navy announced the deployment of a fourth nuclear attack submarine to Guam, the USS Topeka.

Chinese military officials said the Topeka deployment is part of the Pentagon's Air Sea Battle Concept and posed a threat to China.

Disclosure of the new Chinese IRBM follows the announcement this week by Defense Secretary Chuck Hagel that the U.S. military is sharply reducing its military forces.


"How can [U.S. policymakers] possibly justify such reductions in defense spending when American forces as far away as Guam, Korea, and Okinawa are targeted by these nuclear missiles," said one official familiar with reports of the DF-26C.

It was the first official confirmation of China's new IRBM, which officials believe is part of the People's Liberation Army military buildup aimed at controlling the Asia Pacific waters and preventing the U.S. military entry to the two island chains along China's coasts.

The first island chain extends from Japan's southern Ryuku Islands southward and east of the Philippines and covers the entire South China Sea. The second island chain stretches more than a thousand miles into the Pacific in an arc from Japan westward and south to western New Guinea.

Few details could be learned about the new missile and a Pentagon spokesman declined to comment, citing a policy of not commenting on intelligence matters.

The missile is said to be on a road-mobile chassis and to use solid fuel. The fuel and mobility allow the missile to be hidden in underground facilities and fired on short notice, making it very difficult to counter in a conflict.

The DF-26C is expected to be mentioned in the Pentagon's forthcoming annual report on China's military power, which is due to Congress next month.

Adm. Cecil Haney, commander of the U.S. Strategic Command, told a congressional hearing this week that missile and other nuclear threats from China and Russia continue to grow.

"The current security environment is more complex, dynamic, and uncertain than at any time in recent history," Haney said in testimony to the Senate Armed Services Committee. "Advances of significant nation state and non-state military capabilities continue across all air, sea, land, and space domains—as well as in cyberspace. This trend has the potential to adversely impact strategic stability."

Russia and China in particular "are investing in long-term and wide-ranging military modernization programs to include extensive modernization of their strategic capabilities," Haney said. "Nuclear weapons ambitions and the proliferation of weapon and nuclear technologies continue, increasing risk that countries will resort to nuclear coercion in regional crises or nuclear use in future conflicts."

Richard Fisher, a China military affairs specialist, said Chinese reports have discussed a DF-26 missile as a medium-range or intermediate-range system. Medium-range is considered between 621 miles and 1,864 miles. Intermediate-range is between 1,864 and 3,418 miles

Online reports of three new types of medium- and intermediate-range missiles have said the weapons could be multi-role systems capable of firing nuclear or conventional warheads, along with maneuvering anti-ship and hypersonic warheads, Fisher said.

According to Fisher, two likely transporter erector launchers (TEL) for the new missiles were displayed last year on Chinese websites. They include two versions from missile TEL manufacturing companies called Sanjiang and Taian.

Three years ago, the state-run Global Times reported that the China Aerospace Science and Industry Corp. (CASIC) was working on a new 2,400-mile range missile that would be deployed by 2015.

That Chinese manufacturer also produced the DF-21 missile, prompting speculation that the DF-26C is a follow-up version of that system.

"China is developing and will soon deploy new longer-range theater missiles as part of its anti-access, area denial strategies, to be part of a combined force of new long-range bombers armed with supersonic anti-ship missiles, plus space weapons and larger numbers of submarines," Fisher said in an email.

These forces are being deployed to push U.S. forces out of the first island chain and to have the capability to reach the second chain, including Guam, he said.

"China also consistently refuses to consider formal dialogue about its future nuclear forces or to consider any near term limits on them," Fisher said. "China is giving Washington and its Asian allies no other choice but to pursue an 'armed peace' in Asia."

According to Fisher, the Chinese missile buildup has forced the Navy to redesign its first aircraft carrier-based unmanned combat vehicle into a larger and longer aircraft.

The new Chinese long-range missiles also highlight the urgent need for a new U.S. long-range bomber to replace an aging fleet of strategic bombers. (article continues)"

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Martian

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Known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silos

Map of known DF-5A and DF-5B ICBM silo locations



Looking at an old map of known DF-5A and DF-5B silo locations, we see three brigades. Two brigades are DF-5A five-megaton single-warhead ICBMs and one brigade is DF-5B 10-MIRVed ICBMs.

As an aside, the map shows the locations of four DF-31A brigades.

However, it is reasonable to believe China has upgraded its remaining DF-5A ICBMs into the MIRVed DF-5B version. This is a normal response to U.S. missile defense efforts. 360 Chinese MIRVed thermonuclear warheads are more survivable than 36 Chinese thermonuclear warheads.

In the illustration below (from Richard Fisher in 1999), we can see that China had the ability to launch MIRVed warheads after it had successfully put multiple Iridium satellites into orbit. It is now 2014 and China had 15 years to improve its MIRV dispenser.

China Increases Its Missile Forces While Opposing U.S. Missile Defense



To my knowledge, Richard Fisher was the first to notice the Pentagon's 2013 military report referred to China's "enhanced" DF-5 ICBM (or DF-5B ICBM). FYI, the DF-5 ICBM is also known as CSS-4 ICBM.

http://www.defense.gov/pubs/2013_china_report_final.pdf (page 31)

"By 2015, China's nuclear forces will include additional CSS-10 Mod 2 and enhanced CSS-4 ICBMs."

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This leaves two remaining issues regarding China's DF-5A/DF-5B arsenal.

Firstly, there is a silo base near Lhasa. However, the Pentagon is silent on whether the Chinese Lhasa missile base is comprised of ICBMs. China has at least 60 MRBM mobile launchers in central China and it does not make sense to duplicate the military capability by having MRBM/IRBM silos. Thus, there is a good likelihood that the Lhasa silos contain ICBMs.

Chinese missile site - in TIBET - YouTube

Secondly, how many more ICBM silos are located in China? China has the 3,000-mile Underground Great Wall and many mountain ranges that are ideal locations for more ICBM silos.
 

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Federation of American Scientists lists four launch locations for China's DF-5A/B ICBMs

The Federation of American Scientists' (FAS) information is from year 2000.

The launch sites are located at Luoning, Wuzhai, Xuanhua, and Tongdao.

The launch sites may not be a comprehensive list. China might have built additional silos during the past 14 years. Also, there might have been secret silos that were unknown to FAS.

Four brigades of Chinese DF-5A/B ICBMs x 12 ICBMs per brigade = 48 DF-5A/B ICBMs

If all four brigades are DF-5B ICBMs:

48 DF-5B ICBMs x 10 MIRVs per DF-5B = 480 thermonuclear warheads

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DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists

 

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Seven known Chinese DF-5A/B ICBM brigades

From the Federation of American Scientists, we know there are four DF-5A/B brigades at Luoning (804th brigade), Wuzhai (Base 25), Xuanhua, and Tongdao (805th brigade).[1]

From Air Power Australia, we know there are three more DF-5A/B brigades at Lushi (801st brigade) and Jingxian (803rd and 814th brigades).[2]

Assuming all seven brigades have been upgraded to DF-5B ICBMs (or will soon be fully upgraded in the near future):

7 DF-5B brigades x 12 DF-5B ICBMs per brigade x 10 MIRVs per DF-5B ICBM = 840 thermonuclear warheads

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References:

1. DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists

2. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia



 

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Eight known Chinese DF-5A/B ICBM brigades

1. Luoning/Luoyang (804th brigade)
2. Wuzhai (Base 25)
3. Xuanhua
4. Tongdao (805th brigade)
5. Lushi (801st brigade)
6. Jingxian (803rd brigade)
7. Jingxian (814th brigade)
8. Hunan (818th brigade)

Assuming all eight brigades have been upgraded to DF-5B ICBMs (or will soon be fully upgraded in the near future):

8 DF-5B brigades x 12 DF-5B ICBMs per brigade x 10 MIRVs per DF-5B ICBM = 960 thermonuclear warheads

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References:

DF-5 | Federation of American Scientists

PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia (54th and 55th bases)

MULTIMEGATON WEAPONS | Johnston Archive

 

Martian

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Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs are thoroughly tested and reliable

In the mainstream western press, you constantly read that Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs are beset by troubled development. Is this claim true?

An examination of the test records of Chinese ICBMs and SLBMs shows a history of SUCCESSFUL test flights. A successful test flight is easy to determine, because the missile will reach an apogee of 1,000km (or 600 miles).

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TEN CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL DF-5 ICBM TEST FLIGHTS


DF-5 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica



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FIVE CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL DF-31 ICBM TEST FLIGHTS


DF-31 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica



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TWO CONSECUTIVE SUCCESSFUL JL-2 SLBM TEST FLIGHTS


JL-2 Chronology | Encyclopedia Astronautica

 
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Seven known Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades

1. Delingha
2. Haiyan
3. Datong (809 Brigade)
4. Tainshui (812 Brigade)
5. Xixia
6. Shaoyang (805 Brigade)
7. Yuxi

7 DF-31A brigades x 12 ICBMs per brigade x 3 MIRVs per DF-31A ICBM = 252 thermonuclear warheads

In my next post, I will provide further citations and pictures to show the deployment of Chinese DF-31A brigades.

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China: New START-type report | Nuclear Forces













 
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Hans Kristensen is clearly wrong about DF-31A ICBMs at China's Kunming Valley

Hans Kristensen conducted a pixel analysis of two tunnel entrances at China's Kunming Valley. His conclusion was that the Chinese DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL would have difficulty entering the tunnel portals (see citation below) and he claimed the entire Kunming Valley complex was a munition depot. I will show that his conclusion is clearly wrong.

Hans Kristensen conducted a selective analysis. When you look at the upper end of Kunming Valley, you notice the existence of tunnel portals that are not located orthogonally to the road. These tunnel portals allow for easy ingress and egress of Chinese DF-31A ICBMs (see second citation below).

There is another major error in Hans Kristensen's reasoning. He failed to understand the road edge (with a width of 4.5 meters) represents the beginning of a tree canopy. Since I am not a Kunming tree expert, I will use a typical Chinese tree such as a willow tree. The average width of a willow tree canopy is about 11 to 14 meters. Divide by two and subtract one meter for the tree trunk and we have an additional clearance of five meters.

That is plenty of room for a DF-31A mobile TEL to enter the tunnel portals that Hans Kristensen claimed did not offer enough turn radius for the DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL.

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No, China Does Not Have 3,000 Nuclear Weapons | FAS Strategic Security Blog


"This image shows two of the so-called 'tunnel portals' identified by the Georgetown University report as being part of a DF-31 deployment site near Kunming. An image of a DF-31/DF-31A launcher is superimposed to illustrate the difficulty it would have turning at the site. The dimensions of the roads indicate that the facility is not for DF-31 launchers, but looks more like a munitions depot."

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Look at the tunnel entrances in the upper-right corner. There is plenty of room for a DF-31A mobile TEL to enter or leave the tunnels.

Les installations souterraines de la seconde artillerie




An expanded view of the upper-right part of the Kunming Valley shows the presence of tunnel entrances where a DF-31A ICBM mobile TEL can easily enter and leave.

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There is plenty of room for a DF-31A mobile TEL to turn into the tunnel. There is an extra five meters of ground beneath the tree canopy from the road edge.


Source: Silhouette of a weeping willow tree in a public park in Kunming, Yunnan Province, China. [Note: I substituted a different willow tree to avoid violating a copyright.]

Weeping Willow Tree Facts - Buzzle

"Mar 2, 2012 - A weeping willow tree or the Salix babylonica is the favorite of those who want to add a ... create a 'falling' canopy, they form excellent shade trees that are much in demand. ... Their height and width can be about 35 to 50 feet."
 

Martian

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PLA Second Artillery missile bases and brigades

China has at least six missile "bases" (e.g. 51st through 56th base). "Each base has numerous subordinate missile brigades."[1]

Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye



"Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher)."[2]

Let's take a closer look at one of the missile bases (e.g. Missile Base 55).[3]

Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye



From the chart, we see that the information is consistent with the other sources in my earlier posts. It is general knowledge that China's nuclear modernization is gathering speed. China watchers have expected the liquid-fueled DF-4A IRBMs to be replaced with newer solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs.

Interestingly, with advancements in lightweight composites and higher impulse for rocket fuel, the DF-31A ICBM at 16 meters is much shorter than the DF-4A IRBM at 28 meters. The diameter is also smaller on the DF-31A ICBM with "2.0m (1st/2nd stages), 1.5m (3rd stage)" versus the DF-4A IRBM at 2.25m.

In the citation below, we can see a DF-31A ICBM being moved into Shaoyang, Hunan for the 805 brigade.

New DF-31A ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | AsiaEye



In the following citation, we see more proof of DF-31A ICBM deployment that meshes with the list of known DF-31A ICBM brigades.

Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China | Federation of American Scientists





The total of seven Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades is consistent with the known rate of Chinese DF-31A ICBM production at one brigade per year.[4]

In conclusion, we know there are at least six large Chinese missile bases. Each Chinese missile base has many brigades of ICBMs. At Missile Base 55, there are two brigades of DF-5A/B ICBMs. Those two brigades (or 24 ICBMs) already exceed the U.S. estimate of 20 total DF-5 ICBMs. When you include the other five missile bases, it should be obvious that the U.S. estimate is dead wrong.

Similarly, we see pictures of the widespread deployment of Chinese DF-31A ICBMs. With one to two brigades of DF-31A ICBMs at each missile base, the estimate of seven known Chinese DF-31A brigades is very reasonable.

----------

1. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia

"Second Artillery Corps missile units are organized into what the PLA refers to as "bases". There are six bases, each located in a different geographical area. Described in the terms used by the Russian military, these bases are analogous to Russia's "Missile Armies". Each base has numerous subordinate missile brigades, with each brigade maintaining one or more garrisons, various underground facilities (UGFs), rail transfer points, and field launch positions."

2. New DF-31A ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | AsiaEye

"Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher)."

3. Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye



4. China and START. Missile buildup may surpass U.S., Russia as they denuclearize

"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009.
...
This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads
and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads."
 

FulcrumD

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I am amazed that people are seriously subscribing to this bullshit of an article.Does anyone believe India's total warhead yield is upto 1 MT!!
As per US assesment India has around 100 warheads(I dont believe) now lets assume that we have 25 warheads of 20kt,25 of 50kt,another 25 of 150-200kt and the rest 25 of subkiloton level,then do the math.Remember Avinash Chandra's interview where he clearly states the warhead yield AgniV will carry.This is an assesment based on the 100 warhead theory.Awaiting rebuttal/response.:namaste:



"Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher)."[2]

Let's take a closer look at one of the missile bases (e.g. Missile Base 55).[3]

Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye



From the chart, we see that the information is consistent with the other sources in my earlier posts. It is general knowledge that China's nuclear modernization is gathering speed. China watchers have expected the liquid-fueled DF-4A IRBMs to be replaced with newer solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs.

Interestingly, with advancements in lightweight composites and higher impulse for rocket fuel, the DF-31A ICBM at 16 meters is much shorter than the DF-4A IRBM at 28 meters. The diameter is also smaller on the DF-31A ICBM with "2.0m (1st/2nd stages), 1.5m (3rd stage)" versus the DF-4A IRBM at 2.25m.

In the citation below, we can see a DF-31A ICBM being moved into Shaoyang, Hunan for the 805 brigade.

New DF-31A ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | AsiaEye



In the following citation, we see more proof of DF-31A ICBM deployment that meshes with the list of known DF-31A ICBM brigades.

Chinese Mobile ICBMs Seen in Central China | Federation of American Scientists





The total of seven Chinese DF-31A ICBM brigades is consistent with the known rate of Chinese DF-31A ICBM production at one brigade per year.[4]

In conclusion, we know there are at least six large Chinese missile bases. Each Chinese missile base has many brigades of ICBMs. At Missile Base 55, there are two brigades of DF-5A/B ICBMs. Those two brigades (or 24 ICBMs) already exceed the U.S. estimate of 20 total DF-5 ICBMs. When you include the other five missile bases, it should be obvious that the U.S. estimate is dead wrong.

Similarly, we see pictures of the widespread deployment of Chinese DF-31A ICBMs. With one to two brigades of DF-31A ICBMs at each missile base, the estimate of seven known Chinese DF-31A brigades is very reasonable.

----------

1. PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia

"Second Artillery Corps missile units are organized into what the PLA refers to as "bases". There are six bases, each located in a different geographical area. Described in the terms used by the Russian military, these bases are analogous to Russia's "Missile Armies". Each base has numerous subordinate missile brigades, with each brigade maintaining one or more garrisons, various underground facilities (UGFs), rail transfer points, and field launch positions."

2. New DF-31A ICBM Brigade in Hunan? | AsiaEye

"Each brigade is presumably equipped with 12 launchers (six launch battalions, two subordinate companies each, and with each company assigned one launcher)."

3. Spotlight on New Second Artillery ICBM Base Leadership | AsiaEye



4. China and START. Missile buildup may surpass U.S., Russia as they denuclearize

"China and START
By Richard D. Fisher Jr.,
The Washington Times,
20 September 2010
...
In its latest report to the Congress on China`s military released on Aug. 16, the Pentagon says there are less than 10 DF-31 and "10-15" DF-31A ICBMs, up to five more than reported in the previous year`s report, covering 2008. However, in the 2010 issue of "Military Balance," Britain`s International Institute of Strategic Studies notes there is one brigade of 12 DF-31s and two brigades or 24 DF-31A ICBMs, indicating a possible increase of one new brigade from 2008 to 2009.
...
This analyst has been told by Asian military sources that the DF-31A already carries three warheads
and that one deployed DF-5B carries five or six warheads."[/QUOTE]
 

Martian

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Two known Chinese DF-31 ICBM brigades

I have previously covered the eight brigades of liquid-fueled DF-5A/B ICBMs and seven brigades of solid-fueled DF-31A ICBMs.

The DF-31 ICBM (at 13 meter length) is smaller than the DF-31A (at 16 meter length) and has a shorter range.[1] However, the DF-31 can reach Alaska, Hawaii, and possibly the Northwest of the United States.

The two known brigades of DF-31 ICBMs are located at:

1. Nanyang (813th Brigade)
2. Xining (Urban/Industrial Brigade or U/I Brigade)

PLA Second Artillery Corps | Air Power Australia





----------

Reference:

1. DF-31/-31A (CSS-9) | Missile Threat

 

DBF1954

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Regarding posting no. 32 by Martian and the picture of a "DF-5": This is in fact a missile like the Julang I or Julang II launched from a submarine and NOT a DF-5.

If persons from a "Center for Defense Information" cannot see that difference I have doubts about the quality of the intelligence of all the other claims. In my opininion what we know from satellite pictures is only a fraction of what there is. Also Chinese cruise missiles should be included when counting the number of launchers.
 

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