Discussion in 'China' started by badguy2000, Aug 16, 2010.
well , the time has come when CHina take the place of Japan as the world 2en biggest economy!
at last! i have been hearing this from our chinese friends for good 3 years now, first china crossed the mark in 2007 i guess, then in '08, then in '09 and then in the 1st quarter of '10 .
It was expected given the growth rates of China for past two decades. But, I think it is going to be that much more difficult for China to maintain the same growth rate. And there can be multiple issues, be it on economic, political or defense front, that might crop up and derail its growth and ascent. China grew on the slogan of "peaceful rise" but day by day world is perceiving China's rise not so peaceful after all.
You forgot to mention that Now they expect Chinese economy to overtake USA in 2030 instead of 2020 at given growth rate.
Chinese economy is slowing considerably and will take very long to overtake USA .China growth is mainly due to American FDI and export is mainly to America . Growth will slowdown even further is FDI decide to move to other countries due to hostile attitude of China. Till now USA was quite due to slowdown but now worst is almost over for USA and they will be more ruthless in dealing with China .
The closer the Chinese try to get US economy the less trade USA will do with them to prevent it.
1'China's economy will overtake USA's much ealier than you expected..... I think it will be in 2020 or so,because the appreciation of RMB can accelerate it much .
2. CHina doesn't lack of fund at all now. FDI from USA is just a peanut compared with China own fund.
Instead, lots of countries ,including USA, are eager for FDI from China.
Haven't you been saying that shit for the last couple of years?
haha, pls repost what I said, ok?
guy, don't be so soua grape...
France's per capital nominal GDP is now 40K USD, and CHina's is only 4K USD. France's is about 10 times of China's .
But in 5 years, France's per capital nominal GDP will still be less 50K USD, while China's can be 10K. At that time, France's will be 5 times of CHina's.
SHANGHAI â€” After three decades of spectacular growth, China passed Japan in the second quarter to become the worldâ€™s second-largest economy behind the United States, according to government figures released early Monday.
The milestone, though anticipated for some time, is the most striking evidence yet that Chinaâ€™s ascendance is for real and that the rest of the world will have to reckon with a new economic superpower.
The recognition came early Monday, when Tokyo said that Japanâ€™s economy was valued at about $1.28 trillion in the second quarter, slightly below Chinaâ€™s $1.33 trillion. Japanâ€™s economy grew 0.4 percent in the quarter, Tokyo said, substantially less than forecast. That weakness suggests that Chinaâ€™s economy will race past Japanâ€™s for the full year.
Experts say unseating Japan â€” and in recent years passing Germany, France and Great Britain â€” underscores Chinaâ€™s growing clout and bolsters forecasts that China will pass the United States as the worldâ€™s biggest economy as early as 2030. Americaâ€™s gross domestic product was about $14 trillion in 2009.
â€œThis has enormous significance,â€ said Nicholas R. Lardy, an economist at the Peterson Institute for International Economics. â€œIt reconfirms whatâ€™s been happening for the better part of a decade: China has been eclipsing Japan economically. For everyone in Chinaâ€™s region, theyâ€™re now the biggest trading partner rather than the U.S. or Japan.â€
For Japan, whose economy has been stagnating for more than a decade, the figures reflect a decline in economic and political power. Japan has had the worldâ€™s second-largest economy for much of the last four decades, according to the World Bank. And during the 1980s, there was even talk about Japanâ€™s economy some day overtaking that of the United States.
But while Japanâ€™s economy is mature and its population quickly aging, China is in the throes of urbanization and is far from developed, analysts say, meaning it has a much lower standard of living, as well as a lot more room to grow. Just five years ago, Chinaâ€™s gross domestic product was about $2.3 trillion, about half of Japanâ€™s.
This country has roughly the same land mass as the United States, but it is burdened with a fifth of the worldâ€™s population and insufficient resources.
Its per capita income is more on a par with those of impoverished nations like Algeria, El Salvador and Albania â€” which, along with China, are close to $3,600 â€” than that of the United States, where it is about $46,000.
Yet there is little disputing that under the direction of the Communist Party, China has begun to reshape the way the global economy functions by virtue of its growing dominance of trade, its huge hoard of foreign exchange reserves and United States government debt and its voracious appetite for oil, coal, iron ore and other natural resources.
China is already a major driver of global growth. The countryâ€™s leaders have grown more confident on the international stage and have begun to assert greater influence in Asia, Africa and Latin America, with things like special trade agreements and multibillion dollar resource deals.
â€œTheyâ€™re exerting a lot of influence on the global economy and becoming dominant in Asia,â€ said Eswar S. Prasad, a professor of trade policy at Cornell and former head of the International Monetary Fundâ€™s China division. â€œA lot of other economies in the region are essentially riding on Chinaâ€™s coat tails, and this is remarkable for an economy with a low per capita income.â€
In Japan, the mood was one of resignation. Though increasingly eclipsed by Beijing on the world stage, Japan has benefited from a booming China, initially by businesses moving production there to take advantage of lower wages and, as local incomes have risen, by tapping a large and increasingly lucrative market for Japanese goods.
Beijing is also beginning to shape global dialogues on a range of issues, analysts said; for instance, last year it asserted that the dollar must be phased out as the worldâ€™s primary reserve currency.
And while the United States and the European Union are struggling to grow in the wake of the worst economic crisis in decades, China has continued to climb up the economic league tables by investing heavily in infrastructure and backing a $586 billion stimulus plan.
This year, although growth has begun to moderate a bit, Chinaâ€™s economy is forecast to expand about 10 percent â€” continuing a remarkable three-decade streak of double-digit growth.
â€œThis is just the beginning,â€ said Wang Tao, an economist at UBS in Beijing. â€œChina is still a developing country. So it has a lot of room to grow. And China has the biggest impact on commodity prices â€” in Russia, India, Australia and Latin America.â€
There are huge challenges ahead, though. Economists say that Chinaâ€™s economy is too heavily dependent on exports and investment and that it needs to encourage greater domestic consumption â€” something China has struggled to do.
The countryâ€™s largely state-run banks have recently been criticized for lending far too aggressively in the last year while shifting some loans off their balance sheet to disguise lending and evade rules meant to curtail lending growth.
China is also locked in a fierce debate over its currency policy, with the United States, European Union and others accusing Beijing of keeping the Chinese currency, the renminbi, artificially low to bolster exports â€” leading to huge trade surpluses for China but major bilateral trade deficits for the United States and the European Union. China says that its currency is not substantially undervalued and that it is moving ahead with currency reform.
Regardless, Chinaâ€™s rapid growth suggests that it will continue to compete fiercely with the United States and Europe for natural resources but also offer big opportunities for companies eager to tap its market.
Although its economy is still only one-third the size of the American economy, China passed the United States last year to become the worldâ€™s largest market for passenger vehicles. China also passed Germany last year to become the worldâ€™s biggest exporter.
Global companies like Caterpillar, General Electric, General Motors and Siemens â€” as well as scores of others â€” are making a more aggressive push into China, in some cases moving research and development centers here.
Some analysts, though, say that while China is eager to assert itself as a financial and economic power â€” and to push its state companies to â€œgo globalâ€ â€” it is reluctant to play a greater role in the debate over climate change or how to slow the growth of greenhouse gases.
China passed the United States in 2006 to become the worldâ€™s largest emitter of greenhouse gases, which scientists link to global warming. But China also has an ambitious program to cut the energy it uses for each unit of economic output by 20 percent by the end of 2010, compared to 2006.
Assessing what Chinaâ€™s newfound clout means, though, is complicated. While the country is still relatively poor per capita, it has an authoritarian government that is capable of taking decisive action â€” to stimulate the economy, build new projects and invest in specific industries.
That, Mr. Lardy at the Peterson Institute said, gives the country unusual power. â€œChina is already the primary determiner of the price of virtually every major commodity,â€ he said. â€œAnd the Chinese government can be much more decisive in allocating resources in a way that other governments of this level of per capita income cannot.â€
have you read the theme of my post?
Chinese economic rise is the worst thing that can happen for the world economy, atleast other nations rise benefitted many nations Chinese rise will not benefit anyone as pak found out recently during the floods with the 1.5 million in aid.
I agree with lethal force,when you have big dream,s .There come times when you have to step up and do right by your friend's so the donation to pak was a joke. But then any donation to pak could not help in holding down india which is the only attraction in this one sided relationship .
I am full of praise for the monumental hard work thats taken place in china, to get them where they are. I'm even more glad india is not trying to clone china and grow the same way. India is not china, it's people would not stand the shit the chinese people take at the hands of there leaders.
Bad Guy I need your response to LF comments . Common man where are you ? Whats the reason for such a gracious donations from China?
Their growth projections vis-Ã -vis undervalued currency.
Their growth projections vis-Ã -vis bubble land goes pop.
QM, our Rupee is undervalued too
There's a big gap between US and Chinese economies to fill before US actually starts to do something serious to safeguard its position. But by the time it starts to do such a thing as pulling manufacturing out of China, it will be too late. By then Chinese companies will have become self-sufficient with their brands in the global market.
I have yet to see a successful consumer brand coming out of China. They sell products by outstripping the competition in price: to brand means marketing, better quality, and the increased costs that come with it. Once China steps into the realm international competition, their business model will not work. It is only tailored to work in China where they make the rules.
They don't need a qualitatively successful brand, only that which maintains a low-profile while selling well. Take Huawei for example, which is crunching into Cisco's market share like Pacman.
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