China to overtake US faster than previously thought

Discussion in 'China' started by CrYsIs, Sep 8, 2014.

  1. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    According to IHS report China has already overtaken US in GDP PPP and is destined to overtake USA by 2024 in nominal value with a GDP of 28 trillion $ against 27 trillion $ of the US.

    China was previously expected to overtake US only by 2028,but the new estimate suggests that it will happen within just 10 year time.This is partly due to China's shift towards a domestic consumption based economy from an export oriented economy.
     
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  3. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    We already passed the period of comparing GDP. Without dramatic change, China is destined to overtake US by pure GDP.

    The current mission is quality of GDP.
     
  4. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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    China is a 6 to 7 Trillion economy , GDP is a huge manipulation in that country.
     
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  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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  6. Srinivas_K

    Srinivas_K Senior Member Senior Member

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  7. cw2005

    cw2005 Regular Member

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  8. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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  9. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    Look from the other side.As early as 1987 India was economically bigger than China,but today India's GDP is only 1.8 trillion $ as compared to your suggested figures of 6-7 trillion $ for China.

    The fact remains that standards of living in China has improved drastically,poverty has declined by huge numbers,no mass starvation,no hunger,no illiteracy,no open defecation etc etc. I don't care if they fudged their statistics,i admire that they have improved a lot by leaps and bounds
     
    Last edited: Sep 8, 2014
  10. CrYsIs

    CrYsIs Regular Member

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    GDP has very little value outside of economic and GK books.What matters is per capita income,government expenditure,capital investment,infrastructure investment and above all standards of living.


    So far China's Annual revenue is close to 1.8 trillion $ as opposed to just 200 billion $ for India.That fact that they spend 200 billion $ annually on military is a testament to this fact.


    When you goto china,you would see that even poorest places like Lhasa has better infrastructure than Delhi and the richest places are at par with Washington dc.
     
  11. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    china' GDP is over 9trillion Usd,smaller than Usa. but chinese buy more almost all kinds of products than Usa,from food,electricity,steel,concrete,household appliances,houses to autos. so ,according to Gdp,Chinese economy is smaller than USA. According to sales,Chinese economy is already by far larger than USA. all depend on which metric you are ready to accept.
     
  12. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Dream on!!! That China would overtake US in any field except consumer goods. In the latter US is not interested and China would in ten years loose its pre- eminent position.

    Why?

    US now realizes that too much cash in China 's hands is detrimental US well being. China is already working on sea denial plans against US, which US does not like. There are only a few ways to deal with that situation. First withdraw that most favourable currency exchange rate between Dollar and Yuan (it favours China exports). Second, switch consumer goods manufacture to India, Indonesia and other low income countries. Third stop being neutral sort in Chinese expansionist designs against Japan, Philippines, Taiwan, Vietnam, India etc.

    Above measure would cut cash to the PLA and its belligerent attitude. Lower growth will create internal political problems which will keep Chinese internally busy and more cash at India's disposal would build its armed forces to confront China more effectively.
     
  13. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    hehe
    guy , can you name any consumer goods that USA now consumes more than CHIna????

    House? CHinese bought more houses and its materials such as steel and concrete than the combined of the rest world.


    household appliances such as AC,PC ,washing machines and TV set? CHinese bought 30%+ of those household applinaces in the world, although CHinese population is less than 20% of global population.



    AUtos? Chinese bought more autos than the combined of USA +Japan.


    Eeletricity?? CHinese consume more electricity than the combine of USA+Japan again.

    Food? Chinese consumes more food than USA+India.

    frankly speaking, I can hardly name any consumer goods than China consumes less than USA or any other country....
    according to the sale of all kinds of products , CHina is by far the world largest economy while according the GDP , CHinese economy is only 50-60% of USA.....

    it is quite obvous that the rank of GDP is contradicting with the rank of sales......
     
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well, nomial GDP, as well as PPP,eletricity consumption, yearly total freight, and durable sales(such as auto), is just one of many indicators which metrics the scale of economy.

    Generally speaking,
    the rank of electricity consumption,yearly total feight ,durable sales usually is consistent with the rank of GDP.

    for example
    1.when Soviet/Japan was the second largest economy and their GDP was 60% of USA's , their electricity consumption was also about 60% of USA's.
    however, CHina's GDP is about 60% of USA last year, but CHina consumed more electricity than USA.

    2.when EU's GDP is almost equal to USA's, EU's yearly auto sale is almost equal to USA's.
    When India's GDP is almost 1/9 of USA's, India's yearly auto sale is also only about 1/7 of USA's.
    however, China's GDP is about 60 of USA"s, but China's yearly auto sale is 40% more than USA's...


    3.nominal GDP might be the sole indicator that still shows CHina's economy scale is still smaller than USA.

    other indicators ,such as electricity consumtpition,trade amount, duarale sales(autos,AC,PC,washing machines..etc), material consumption(cement,steel,ores..etc) and total freight, all show that CHina's economy is larger than USA and China's ahead is getting more consolidated day by day.


    4.sooooo,case is very clear that there is something wrong with GDP to metric the economy scale of CHina.
     
  15. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    bodyguy2000

    All these statistics and other items you quote are not for Chinese people internal consumption. These consumptions are all for two trillion and more dollar export. Deduct the consumption required for exports and China is back to where it should be.

    So before you quote anything so great about China, normalize with other countries at an equal level.

    Same logic applies to GDP on nominal or PPP basis. Take export amount out which is not meant for Chinese people consumption. In fact with excessive export you are exhausting your mines and other mineral resources and causing pollution. Excessive coal consumption causes acidic rain and which is killing Chinese lakes and water resources.

    All that for whom?

    For people in Europe and America who do not wish smoke stack industry at home.
     
  16. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    how to explain it???? .when EU's GDP is almost equal to USA's, EU's yearly auto sale is almost equal to USA's.
    When India's GDP is almost 1/9 of USA's, India's yearly auto sale is also only about 1/7 of USA's.
    however, China's GDP is about 60 of USA"s, but China's yearly auto sale is 40% more than USA's...
     

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