Read the article i linked from NTI no less! it says
i.e the program was started four odd years after you claim the program was cancelled.
The only reason development of the KH101 and it's nuclear cousin the KH102 was suspended in the mid 90's due to the SALT 2 negotiations between President Yestsin and the americans, there is no reason to suggest the President Putin may not have restarted the program.
The article doesn't mention anything about the start of the programme and I never mentioned a date of it ending. I said it hasn't gone anywhere and it hasn't. The only cruise missile they have been actively testing is Kh-555. It would be nice to have a smaller missile like 101, but it really isn't necessary ending to its cancellation.
Russian Military Districts
As per global security(a genarally reliable source)the above is the real status of Russian forces in the far east as of now; if you can provide a more reliable source i would love to know,The above does not include naval marines and motor rifle divisions that were transferred to the navy during the reorganisation of the forces. anyhoo the chinese would probably use the forces stationed in the shenyang and beijing military districts for such an assault in all around 550,000Men
the breakup as per wiki (couldn't find it on global sec)
In all the Russians as per global security have around 7 tank divisions and 19 motorized rifle divisions in siberia i.e assuming 12,000 men in each division we have 26x12000=312000men, may look vastly inferior compared to the PLA's 550,000 but remember that most russain armored divisons will be fighting with the T-72/T-80 and it's analogoues while the PLA for the most part will use T-69's.Couple that with the fact that much of siberia is impassable and you could lure the PLA into a deathtrap.
There is so much outdated information there I don't even know where to begin. There are hardly 312,000 men left in the Russian Ground Forces much less Far East, it is 395,000 for the whole country, add 45,000 to Airbourne. That military district map is pre-1998 before Trans-Bakail was merged with Siberian MD so Global Security is really outdated. Russia has done away with the Field Army and division leadership (except VDV) and made it straight MD/Brigade/ Battalion level. The problem of multiple commands slowing operations in Georgia decided that fate. There are now 39 permanent readiness combat brigades, 21 missile/artillery brigades, 7 AD brigades, 12 comm brigades, and 2 ELINT brigades. The reduction includes dropping away the tank division and dispersing the 2000 tanks into the combat brigade structure. Each brigade gets 5 tank regiments per battalion for 50 tanks. T-64s and T-80s are being scrapped so only upgraded T-72 and T-90s will remain. Since the Omsk factory is closed, Uralvagonzavod will be the only one servicing and building tanks. The purpose of these reforms was to get rid of the Soviet paper armies where divisions had a bunch of officers, a bunch of equipment and no men to man it. Also to be able to afford modern equipment, training, pay increases, and military housing for everyone in service. They also did away with warrant officers and replaced them with professional contract sergeants. These are Russia's attempts to attain a modern Army within a relatively small defence budget.
If you want to read more about this issue, I would suggest you read this piece.
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If you want a quick breakdown of the PLA and their force reduction, this map is a good one.
What i am saying is that it has the capability to carry 6 MIRV's how many of them are real bombs and how many are decoys is a matter known only to the men with top level security clearances among the Russians.
as for the Topol here's the latest on the upgrade to Topol-M at the Teykovo 4 base from FAS
Only 15?
As for the political situation of the CCP they are comfortable enough as it is they do not need to risk anything by starting a war with a potentially stronger adversary.
I would agree if China wasn't so intent on flexing their muscles. We are starting to see a serious change in the "Peaceful Rise" strategy. Building carriers, shooting down satellites, ABM tests, White papers on destabalising India, blocking development loans for AP, PLA constantly crossing the border... ect.
While nothing like the massive numbers on patrol in 1984/85 as per FAS the "Bear Boomers" went out on patrol 10 times in 2008 ie assuming a normal patrol time of 36-40 days for each Boomer the russians had a Boomer at sea every month in 2008.not a bad patrol time at all.see the list.
http://www.fas.org/programs/ssp/nukes/images/ruspat.jpg
For having 11 boomers, it is a very low patrol pattern, although far better than the past. The longer Bulava is delayed, the worse those patterns will be.
As far as most of the RS-29 force carrying only 4 warheads is concerned you are right but remember at least 7 delta IV subs have been deployed with this missile with each sub carrying 16 missiles thats still 64 potential warheads to each sub.
As I mentioned earlier, Delta IVs are getting refurbished Sinevas and a life extension which is going to drop their availability. Three are in refit right now.
A war of attrition would hardly be the "Blitzkreig" that would be required for a theoratical chinese attempt to take over Siberia before the Russians could get their act in order . Russia has one of the largest conscript reserve forces in the worldi.e these men fight for free and hence do not come into cost cutting for the Russian military. Give the russians a few days and you could see millions of conscripts marching into Siberia in defence of the fatherland, couple that with the fact that the russian forces maintain roughly 20,000 tanks9mostly T-64's) in reserve that could be reactivated fast in the case of a national emergency.couple that with the immense CAS capability of the RuAF and the incredible air defence capability the S series and the Tor's provide and the picture dosen't look rosy for the chinese at all.
Thats what you thought, but thats not what it is. Russia doesn't have the manpower to arm a huge conscript army which is why they are going for the permanent readiness concept. Too many people were defering the draft to meet the quotas which is why people are signing contracts with moderate pay. They still have to draft but the quotas are much lower. All the Soviet paper armies are gone. The Russian forces in the Far East are so few and close to the border, it wouldn't take long to attrite them.
Also the chinese will have to deal with diplomatic pressure, oil supplies could be cut off money in banks could be stopped and repatriated(even if the chinese do hold an immense amount of cash almost all of the moeny is electronic in nature and can be withdrawn in a jiffy).
China holds the US debt and would be attacking the reason NATO was formed. They will invent some reason and there would be little the West would do to stop them. This isn't some Tom Clancy novel where the US will come to the Bear's rescue.
Also the Indians and the Vietnamese both have joint security arrangements with the russains and both also have territory dispites with china .China could end up having to fight on three fronts at one, not counting any CIS intervention in china's far northwest as well.
India had a security arrangement with the USSR, not the Russian Federation, same goes for Vietnam. CIS members wouldn't do jack squat when they can't even get half of them to form a rapid reaction force. You might get a Kazakh brigade if they are lucky, it wouldn't make any difference.
Kobalt and Don are the satellites the russians have declared to the world , my question was what have they not declared.
Russians declare everything whether it is real or not, ie plasma stealth.
So you assume the russians will not move as well, anyways the Topchka was designed to take out battlefield bases particularly.
If China is launching a surprise attack, Russia will not move until after the bombardment has begun.
Will the Russians simply give up and stop trying to retake their land after & if the chinese take over siberia is the real question here.
One has to look at European Russians perceptions of the Far East and Eastern Siberia. Most of them have never been there, never will go and know little about it. It is like a foreign country it is so far away. People transferred there in the military hate it as it is underfunded and a cesspool of crime, abuse and poor discipline. Many people couldn't care less if Russia sold it to the Chinese, they think they are going to colonise it anyway. Russians are pretty patriotic so there is no way they would let it go without some kind of indemnity from China. A humiliating defeat in the Far East with a few million Chinese soldiers occupying it would dissuade most people from trying. The population base of Russia is just too low to compete.
DF of the entire article attached.
