China test fires new long-range missile with the range of 8,699 miles

Discussion in 'China' started by sam919, Aug 22, 2012.

  1. sam919

    sam919 Regular Member

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    http://freebeacon.com/manchu-missile-launch/
    BY: Bill Gertz
    August 15, 2012 5:00 am

    China’s military conducted the first flight test of a new long-range intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) that U.S. officials say will be Beijing’s first strategic missile armed with multiple warheads.

    The flight test of the DF-41 road-mobile ICBM occurred July 24 and is raising new concerns within the U.S. military and intelligence agencies over China’s long-range missile threat, according to officials familiar with reports of the test.

    The DF-41 missile is a first-strike nuclear capability, based on its mobility, estimated range, targeting precision, and multiple warheads.

    In addition to shorter-range ICBMs known as the DF-31 and DF-31A, which are believed to target India and Russia, the new ICBM is said by U.S. officials to be designed to hit U.S. targets with multiple nuclear warheads.

    China has claimed it will not be the first to use nuclear weapons and that its nuclear forces are designed for a counterstrike against a nuclear attack on its territory.

    The DF-41 development has called into question the so-called no-first-use policy, officials said.

    The test is also likely to renew debate within U.S. intelligence circles about whether China is seeking only a limited nuclear force, or is secretly building up its nuclear forces to challenge U.S. strategic power.

    The new missile bolsters China’s strategic forces, making them among the most diverse in the world, with a variety of short-, medium-, intermediate-, and intercontinental-range missiles.

    China also has developed ground-launched anti-satellite missiles and a unique anti-ship ballistic missile with enough accuracy to hit U.S. aircraft carriers at sea.

    Purported photos of China’s DF-41

    It is also believed that the DF-41 is part of efforts by China to develop missiles that can defeat U.S. strategic missile defenses. The Pentagon currently has a limited system capable of stopping a few North Korean ICBMs.

    Former military intelligence official Larry Wortzel, a member of the congressional U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission, said the DF-41′s multiple warheads are expected to include special simulated warheads called “penetration aids” that are designed counter U.S. missile defense sensors.

    The DF-41 “is mobile and will be very hard to detect and counter because of that mobility,” Wortzel said. “The warhead array will most certainly include penetration aids.”

    A Pentagon spokeswoman declined to comment on the missile test.

    Details of the flight test could not be learned.

    However, past China flight tests of long-range missiles involved launches from the Wuzhai Space and Missile Test Center that flew west into the far western Chinese desert several thousand miles away. Analysts say such flight tests are often shortened by limiting the time the first stage fires in order to keep the missile within Chinese territory.

    Purported photos of China’s DF-41

    “There are credible references to a DF-41 program in the Chinese literature,” said Mark Stokes, a former Pentagon official and specialist on China’s strategic nuclear systems.

    “The system appears to incorporate a new, larger solid rocket motor than that used on the DF-31 series of delivery vehicles. Ground tests on the motor have been underway for a couple of years.”

    Stokes, executive director of the Project 2049 Institute, said the Chinese military’s Second Artillery Corps, which is in charge of both strategic and non-nuclear missiles, is working to integrate the DF-41 into its operational inventory.

    “Tentative indications exist that the Second Artillery force has established an operational test and evaluation unit in southern Henan Province,” he said.

    Stokes said it is not clear whether the current DF-41 program is similar to an earlier program in the 1990s that was believed to have been converted into the less-capable DF-31A missile, “but it looks real.”

    U.S. intelligence analysts suspect the DF-41 is based on Russia’s long-range mobile missile known as the SS-27 and that Russian missile guidance technology—either purchased or stolen by Chinese spies—is part of the system.

    Phillip Karber, a Georgetown University professor who has studied Chinese nuclear programs, said the DF-41 test could signal a major boost in estimates of China’s strategic nuclear forces.

    Purported photos of China’s DF-41

    Karber said it is likely the DF-41 will carry three warheads, and if the Chinese follow Russia’s model of building three re-load missiles for each launcher, the number of Chinese strategic warheads could more than double from current levels.

    A future DF-41 force of some 32 missiles with reloads and multiple warheads would be enough for China to target every U.S. city with a population over 50,000 people, Karber said.

    “If the Chinese end up developing that kind of counter-value posture against American cities, and we do not build missile defenses against it, it spells the end of extended nuclear deterrence for Asia,” Karber said. The result would be a likely nuclear arms race in Asia.

    Richard Fisher, a specialist on the Chinese military affairs, said the DF-41 has been under development since 1986, but the U.S. government is only now recognizing it.

    “Pentagon reticence to disclose information about this missile is further confused by the fact that Chinese Internet source images of the 18-wheel Transporter-Erector-Launcher (TEL) for this missile have been available since 2007,” said Fisher, a senior fellow at the International Assessment and Strategy Center. “There are now four distinct images of this TEL that show it is a very large mobile ICBM, similar in size to modern Russian mobile ICBMs.”

    Fisher said the DF-41 test is probably the missile referenced briefly in the Pentagon’s 2011 annual report on the Chinese military but omitted from this year’s abbreviated report to Congress.

    In addition to the DF-31 and DF-31A, “China may also be developing a new road-mobile ICBM, possibly capable of carrying a multiple independently targetable re-entry vehicle (MIRV),” the Pentagon report said.

    The website missilethreat.com reported that the DF-41 can be armed with up to 10 MIRV warheads.

    The DF-41 “is easily capable of striking the United States and will likely become the core of the PRC’s nuclear strike force,” Missilethreat.com stated in its assessment.

    Its maximum range is estimated to be 8,699 miles, enough to reach targets throughout the United States from mobile launchers in eastern or northern China.

    China, to date, has not been known to place multiple warheads on its missiles, but obtained technology from the United States in the 1990s for launching multiple satellites on a launcher that U.S. officials say provides a base for MIRV warheads.

    China also obtained through espionage details of the U.S. W-88 small nuclear warhead in the 1990s, according to U.S. intelligence assessments. The W-88 is used on U.S. submarine-launched ballistic missiles and is considered suitable for multiple-warhead missiles.

    China’s total nuclear warhead force is unknown. U.S. intelligence agencies estimate there are between 300 and 400 warheads in the Chinese arsenal.

    However, the actual number could be far higher, based on recent disclosures that China has built 3,000 miles of underground tunnels and nuclear facilities throughout the country.

    Purported photos of China’s DF-41

    Fisher said he was told by a foreign military source in 2010 that the new long-range mobile missile could carry as many as 10 warheads, which means U.S. estimates of Chinese warhead stockpiles may be low.

    “So if you assume that a PLA Second Artillery contains 18 ICBM size missiles, that could mean an increase of 180 warheads per deployed brigade,” Fisher said.

    “Judging from the PLA production rate for the DF-31A ICBM, it appears they could easily produce up to one new brigade per year. So if we assume that testing transitions to continuous production and deployment by 2015, then it is plausible that the DF-41 alone could account for up to 900 warheads by 2020.”

    China’s warhead force for long-range missiles could be has high as 1,032, based on the number of submarines and mobile missile brigades China is deploying, Fisher said.

    “These are plausible estimates; they may or may not happen, [but] the point is that we don’t know for sure, and the PLA has made crystal clear that it does not want to talk to the U.S. government about its current or future nuclear missile capabilities,” Fisher said.

    In addition to China’s refusal to hold strategic nuclear talks, Beijing also may be engaged in a “massive deception” that Fisher says is highlighted by the 3,000 miles of underground nuclear tunnels to support nuclear and military forces.

    The flight test of the DF-41 also undermined the analysis of some specialists who have sought to play down China’s nuclear ambitions.

    For example, the Federation of American Scientists reported in 2008 that the DF-41 program was canceled.

    The trade publication Jane’s Strategic Weapons Systems reported in February that the DF-41 would replace China’s older, silo-based strategic missiles, known as the DF-5 and DF-5A.

    “The development for DF-41 is believed to be managed by the China Aerospace Sciences and Industry Corporation (CASIC), Beijing,” Jane’s stated in its report.

    “The flight test program is managed by the Second Artillery Corps, based at the Wuzhai test center in Shanxi province. There was one reported ground test and a simulated cold launch in October 1999, but no test flights have been reported.”

    Initially, the DF-41 was described as a missile built from the first two stages of the DF-31 with a lengthened third stage.

    “But it is now believed that this description referred to the DF-31A, and that the DF-41 is a new design,” Jane’s stated, noting that both road mobile launchers and railroad car launchers could be used.
     
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  3. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    China claims to have the smallest arsenal in P5 But I think they may have close to a 1000 warheads already. They certainly don't have any peaceful intentions.
     
  4. kickok1975

    kickok1975 Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    So what is the criteria of "Peaceful intention", with warheads in several thousand or tens of thousands like US and Russia?
     
  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Great stuff!
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    China has never had peaceful intentions.

    The Peaceful Rise was a good ruse to disarm the world.

    One can't totally blame China since that is the way the Chinese speak - high morality and so on and justify whatever they are doing.

    The world knew exactly what China was doing, but they preferred to look the other way since the Chinese market and cheap labour was too much of a lure for the developed world to ignore.

    The US has exported high tech technology as this US Govt Report suggests:

    Technology Transfer to China

     
  7. sam919

    sam919 Regular Member

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    We,india as a potential superpower next decade, should and have to utilitize the "stuff" like this so that we can ensure our global interest and face the threat from any country in the world.
     
    maomao likes this.
  8. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    How do you figure out that an ICBM has a range of 8699 miles.

    Wonder what is the source of the report.
     
  9. sam919

    sam919 Regular Member

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    I truly hope that we can come up something like this next ten years like we did on A5. Developing a missile with capability of reaching the most of world is a must for India, and we cannot put limitation on our missle with range of 5000 kls since our missle should reach whereever our intersts extend.
     
  10. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    They are fudging the whole thing, including the data, Chinese military department has dismissed such report as nonsense.
     
  11. sob

    sob Moderator Moderator

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    There is no other independent confirmation on this new missile launch which was supposed o have happened in July.

    @Ray sir, you have been a China watcher for quite some time now. Is this confirmed news?
     
  12. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    congrats China. Hope you dont mind us testing Agni 6.
     
  13. H.A.

    H.A. Senior Member Senior Member

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    Whats with the "99" in the end...is it some BATA offer....:laugh:....

    if they could reach 8699 why can't they go the extra mile....
     
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  14. Jim Street

    Jim Street Regular Member

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    Actually the vehicle from which it will be fired from will be travelling higher than 1 mile per hour giving it initial velocity to cover that mile....:rofl:

    Or may be its like the MRP of many things , Rs 1199 for a shirt....which actually means Rs 1200....:D

    Other than that, a good explanation is needed than this ridiculous one...:May be it was based on KM which converted to Miles become this number....take your pick...
     
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  15. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    The china has disputes with all it's neighbors. It knows that the US is te only thorn in its flesh to assimilate all these territories. So yes there is no peaceful rise or intention. Once it reaches a critical threshold where it knows it can challenge the US militarily, china will move in for the kill in south china sea knowing that the US will either not interfere or knows the US will not push too hard to oppose.

    The US with all it's arsenal has not goons about proclaiming entire seas and oceans as its own though it has dominated them for such a long time.
     
  16. H.A.

    H.A. Senior Member Senior Member

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    Add to that the back door entry that Chinese have to the US's military hardware....
     
  17. Jim Street

    Jim Street Regular Member

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    may be we have to keep in mind that US left Philipines in the middle and TIME magazine called it China's victory on US.

    China don't have to go to war at all. If they move to oil exploration in disputed islands, they will do with sending their navy, and no other country will risk making first strike.

    Only way to stop China from taking this art, is stand-off by navy of all the countries in dispute combined, and taking a stand together.and then backed by US. Otherwise no country can or will make any aggressive reaction on its own.

    I think SCS countries are wasting valuable time and should take a collective stance now. If they can't have those islands, don't let China have it. Coz once China do, there will be no turning back and it will threaten the entire region more.

    These missiles means nothing, just MAD, take the enemy out as you go down....
     
  18. vishwaprasad

    vishwaprasad Regular Member

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    Congrats to China. Any video avail for this test?
     
  19. s002wjh

    s002wjh Senior Member Senior Member

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    for starter, within ASEAN country, only mala, vietnam, phillippine, burnei has claim over SCS. and they themself has overlapping claim with each other, so no one trust with each other. and only vietnam/phillippine has more intense dispute with china on SCS. so clearly most other ASEAN don't see any benefit for them to support vietnam/phillippine, which surely anger china.
     
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  20. cw2005

    cw2005 Regular Member

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    Japan has also disputed with all his neigbour. The only reason Indian do not mind Japan because they thught it is far away from India. This could not be said for Korean, Russian and Chinese. In American's heart, they fear the Japanese most, not the Chinese. China has a large area and rich in natural resource but not Japan. Sooner of later, when Japan becomes strong again, it will invade anyone including all its neigbour and might be India too. It had happened before and might happan again.
     
  21. blank_quest

    blank_quest Senior Member Senior Member

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    History repeats if only We don't learn from them~ I think U.S has been building its Capacity.. so water test of Capabilities is a mere brain exercise! No conclusion--
     

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