China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Korea

Discussion in 'China' started by AVERAGE INDIAN, Jan 13, 2014.

  1. AVERAGE INDIAN

    AVERAGE INDIAN EXORCIST Senior Member

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    China is tracking the developments with a wary eye as India plans to host the heads of governments of South Korea and Japan

    New Delhi: India is set to host the heads of governments from two key North Asian countries this month—South Korea and Japan—a development not lost on Asian power house China, which is tracking the developments with a wary eye, analysts and people close to the development say.

    Two articles by the Chinese ambassador to India, Wei Wei—one in the Hindu newspaper on deepening India-China relations and the second in The Indian Express about Japan’s recent actions “implementing its right-wing doctrine by trying to get rid of the post-war order”—are a reflection of that wariness, say people close to the developments.

    In the article published in the Hindu, Wei Wei focused on India-China relations—the number of exchanges and meetings between the top leaders of the Asian giants in 2013, the “converging” economic interests of the two countries, and increased collaboration in international affairs.

    He also wrote on the significance of the year 2014, which has been announced by both sides as the “Year of Friendly Exchanges” between India and China, besides marking 60 years of the enunciation of “Panchsheel”, or the Five Principles of Peaceful Coexistence governing India-China relations since 1954.

    Wei Wei’s article in The Indian Express, in contrast, speaks of how 2013 was the year of development and cooperation for Asia, a major engine of the world economy, and how for “Asian emerging economies like China and India” it is important to “seize the hard-won economic recovery tendency and enhance mutually beneficial cooperation and push forward the reform of international financial regulatory system”.

    In the same article, Wei Wei also berates the present Japanese leadership for fiercely implementing its right-wing doctrine by amending its pacifist Constitution and developing into a “military power”, which he says “obviously runs against the world trend of pursuing development and enhancing world economic recovery”.

    The article also recalls how India and China “have made important contribution to the fight against the Japanese militarist aggression in World War II.”

    People close to the development agreed that Wei Wei’s articles—a rare development— do reflect a concern in China that India is “being courted by countries like Japan and South Korea”.

    One of the people cited above pointed out that the issues referred to by Wei Wei in the second article were essentially subjects between Japan and China.

    “But the Chinese are wary of what India’s views may be on the subjects between China and Japan. Countries like South Korea and Japan are looking at India as a regional player,” this person said, adding China had keenly watched Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit to Japan last year.

    India, Japan and South Korea each have their own problems with the rising giant China that is viewed by many countries in the region and beyond as unpredictable.

    For India, the biggest irritant bedevilling ties is the unresolved border issue dating back to the brief but bitter 1962 conflict between India and China. South Korea sees China as the main backer of the nuclear armed communist administration in North Korea presently headed by Kim Jong-Un.

    Japan’s political tensions with China, dating back to World War II, spilled over most recently after the election of the India-friendly Shinzo Abe in December 2012.

    Recent tensions spiked over competing claims over a group of islands in East China Sea that the Japanese call the Senkaku and the Chinese call the Daioyu.

    In November, China tried to establish its authority over the islands by demanding that all aircraft flying in the region obey its rules or face “emergency defensive measures”. This was followed by the Japanese cabinet in December approving the country’s first-ever national-security strategy that calls for a more proactive approach to security despite Japan’s post-World War II pacifist constitution.

    Last week, visiting Japanese defence minister Itsunori Onodera discussed the national security strategy with his Indian host A.K. Antony. Following the talks, Indian officials said India had extended an invitation to the Japanese navy to take part in exercises along with the US and Indian navies scheduled for later this year. The three countries already have a trilateral dialogue mechanism in place and discuss strategic issues under its ambit.

    China has maritime disputes with a number of other countries in South East Asia as well, including the Philippines and Vietnam. In contrast, Japan-India ties have warmed considerably since Abe took office. After taking over, Abe’s cabinet gave its go-ahead for a visit to India by Japanese emperor Akihito and Empress Michiko. The invite from India had been pending for a decade and the visit took place in November.

    India’s gesture was to invite Abe to be the chief guest at India’s Republic Day celebrations on 26 January, which a key Japanese politician last week described as “an epic signal” of the strengthening of India-Japan ties. India also has defence agreements with Indonesia, Malaysia, Mongolia, Vietnam, South Korea and Thailand.

    A second person familiar with the developments said China’s ties with Japan and the region were far more complex given the deep interlinkages between the Chinese economy and the economies of the other countries in North and Southeast Asia. Bilateral trade between China and Japan was almost $330 billion in 2012 with Japan being China’s second-largest trading partner. India had a long way to go before it can catch up with such statistics, the person said.

    According to Srikanth Kondapalli, a professor of East Asian Studies at Jawaharlal Nehru University, “There is concern about a rising China in the region. That China will also look for ways to reduce influences between countries for the success of Chinese goals is also to be expected,” he said.

    “If I were the prime minister, I would look at who brings what to the table. Chinese trade gap with India (in 2012) was $24 billion. Their investment in India is $240 million. There has been talk of Chinese setting up industrial parks in India but that (has) not materialised,” Kondapalli said, adding that India should look at what suits its national interests best.

    “India needs $1 trillion in investment in infrastructure and investments in manufacturing. Japan has promised $92 billion in infrastructure (the Delhi-Mumbai industrial corridor), which is one-tenth of the investment India is looking for. There are some 900 Japanese companies in India. And during Abe’s visit India and Japan will announce the launch of the Bangalore-Chennai highspeed railway. The trade gap with Japan is no where near as large as with China and whatever the deficit, Japan makes up by investments into India. With South Korea too, the story is similar (with that of Japan) in terms of investment and trade,” Kondapalli said.

    China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan and South Korea - Livemint
     
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  3. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan South Kor

    well done

    we can then have india japan s korea vietnam vs china packland and sri wanka
     
  4. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan South Kor

    Well, that is why India sucks in its foreign policy.
    Bring Japan and south korea into a single alliance against China? Even USA can't make that happen after 60 years effort! Good luck!

    What always make me laughing is: Indians think that they can build up an military and political alliance against Chinese by offering nothing but empty words.
     
  5. aerokan

    aerokan Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan South Kor

    Sure buddy!! I would request GOI to give information about Indian strategic offerings along with military blueprints of attack formations next time we think of making any alliances. Will that suffice or you would like the entire discussion transcript along with the mind-reading signals of the leaders as well? Let me know. Will be happy to add that to the list to get from GOI to be sent to you.. BTW, please send in your co-ordinates so that GOI can mail you the entire information.
     
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  6. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Remember that if India decides to coordinate its land forces with Japanese naval and air pressure, China will offer Pakistan advanced nuclear warheads and launch systems to ensure that India is removed from the table as soon as possible in any conflict. Then the tie-up with Japan would be a net loss for India, as India would have ensured its (limited) nuclear arsenal becomes split in the event of any real conflict.
     
  7. northernarunachalpradesh

    northernarunachalpradesh Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    What u want to NUKE yoursefl commie.do u really belive indian nuclear arsenal is limited?can you tell me how much is limited commie?

    IF any country launches nuclear weapons Russia,US will park all their weapons in that country.dont dream of nuclear war.
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2014
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  8. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    150 warheads - then assume an average 50-75kt yield (if the total weapon-ready fissile material output of India's nuclear plants is split equally among all warheads). The fissile material output, by the way, can be independently verified with orbital and other assets that look at radiation emissions against background radiation levels on Earth, as well as by tracking electricity voltage and wattage levels exiting a nuclear power facility (which HUMINT or cyber can do ridiculously easily - you've never seen armed guards frisking people if they go near a substation, have you?).

    Now split that 50-50 between Pakistan and China. 75 warheads against Pakistan, assuming a 20% attrition rate (due to factors as varied as poor maintenance on missiles/warheads to sabotage to active intercept), gets you 60 warheads impacting to cause an estimated 8-10m direct casualties and destruction of 25-35% of Pakistan's urban area. 75 warheads against China would have a much higher attrition rate, since China has a functional ABM system surrounding key cities, and Indian warheads cannot hit China from a depressed trajectory unless India puts its (few, noisy, slow) SSBNs in the South China Sea (the happy hunting ground of over 24 Chinese attack submarines and 20 ASW destroyers/frigates.) Ergo, India could possibly get 50% of its warheads into China (generous assumption); this gets 38 warheads impacting to cause an estimated 5-7m direct casualties and destruction of less than 7% of China's urban area. China, by contrast, would fire about 100-150 warheads in depressed trajectories from mobile launchers in the Tibetan Plateau; the average yield of Chinese 'retaliatory' warheads (those for countervalue as opposed to tactical strikes) is over 2MT. India would lose over a third of its urban area and suffer nearly 50m casualties in the process. The math simply doesn't work out for India at this time.

    The other thing here is that even though you can argue global opinion will be tilted against China going into the match, it will be tilted against India coming out of the match as India basically dragged a third country into a nuclear conflict against it out of spite; India will look irresponsible to the world and downright evil to China. The PLA would, in all likelihood, invade and permanently occupy NE India for 'reparations'; India would be helpless absent US/Russian intervention since its current doctrine calls for all its corps to march west for a joyride in Pakland following nuke strikes.

    Granted, India could develop its military in ways that alter the calculus above, but that's a question of speculation rather than facts.

    The other thing to note China can always use Pakistan to cause more and more pressure to India than India can use Japan to cause on China (or vice versa), since Indo-Pakistani relations are infinitely more fraught than Sino-Japanese relations, and a dovish Japanese PM will dial back pressure on China (due to powerful trade incentives) in ways that a dovish Pakistani PM will not (what is there to gain for Pakistan?).
     
  9. northernarunachalpradesh

    northernarunachalpradesh Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko


    only punjabi pakis and army is against us to keep them in job.sindh,balochistan and all other parts are pro india.


    please get out of u r commie background of nuking otheres.

    we dont need to nuke pakistan or we will never nuke them .please no one is afraid of nukes.please stop bitching about nukes ok.
     
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  10. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Aside from the (simple) military angle, the article also makes another point:

    This is a highly selective view of India's trade situation, which misses the following comparisons:

    Export Import Data Bank

    From Apr 2013 to Sep 2014, China and India had 31bn USD in trade; Japan and India had 8bn USD in trade. China bought 5.7bn USD worth of goods from India; Japan bought 3.4bn USD. By and large, China is the larger trader.

    Both China and Japan have pledged large amounts of FDI in geographically oriented 'investment corridors' - China through the BCIM corridor; India through the Delhi-Mumbai corridor. While Japan does lead in terms of actual FDI on the ground, Kondapalli is comparing apples and oranges when he cites China's $240m in actual investments against Japan's $92bn in 'pledged' (not real) investment; he then applies double standards when he pooh-poohs China's investment talks while accepting Japan's pledged investment figure as fact.

    While one could make a case that Japan should export capital to India (the demographics and macro situation favor that); China has a similar angle it can work with India (since it has a surplus of investment capital itself as well as an aging population).

    In the end, India's best option is to play both sides of the fence here, without letting a (frankly anachronistic and meaningless) border dispute bleed into its larger decisions regarding how to position itself in Asia.

    The last thing India should want to do is become the go-to land-power for containing China. Russia tried playing a similar role vis-a-vis Germany from 1890 to 1914, and again from 1922 to 1941, and both times, what Russia gained from the maritime powers for containing Germany were far less than the blood and treasure she lost to the German Army.
     
  11. northernarunachalpradesh

    northernarunachalpradesh Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Whatz your problem man always ranting about war.Do you thing there is nothing else other than war.Please we are not raised like you we dont fear any one ,nor we try to intimidate others.we believe in soft power.

    Are you here to warn us or what ? do you want us to be afraid of you ?even vietnam dont gove a shit about you.?

    you should understand one thing ,Hitlear lost becaus he started the war?

    You may strart the war but you can't end it.

    Keep your warmongering in your cupboard.:taunt1:
     
    Last edited: Jan 13, 2014
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  12. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    China had already shared the Nuke design and missile technology to Pakistan, Indians knows it very well, now it is India's turn to return !! live with it... It was Chou Ein Lai who offered Pakistan a joint attack on India in 1963...

    Do not worry of limited India's nuclear aesenal, they are enough to bring China to knees...
     
  13. jon88

    jon88 Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Both of you guys can nuke yourselves to kingdom come. Leaders of both nations are not as stupid as you guys.

    Anyway, regarding the article, yes, I agree that China might be concerned about Japan courting India. However, I am a bit skeptical when it comes to South Korea. All my South Korean co-workers are more wary of Japan than China. In fact they hope that China continue to contain Japan, either through it's economic clout or aggressive military posturing. Let's get our facts straight and not get into the either-or fallacy, South Korea is with China and USA and definitely not with Japan. We should not believe that South Korea would like to see a weakened China when they actually prefer a weakened Japan.
     
  14. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Hindu is the mouthpiece of China. Therefore, articles by the Chinese Ambassador WEi Wei is not surprising where he indirectly rants aggressively. The euphemistic title “Year of Friendly Exchanges” is most hilarious and typically Chinese, talking through both ends of the cheek.

    Panchsheel is invoked in the article. The same Panchsheel they cast asunder that advocated reciprocal respect in all aspects of Statehood to sneakily steal territory and then wage war! Hypocrisy thy name is China.

    And now they are worried that Japan and South Korea is warming up to India, and so the best way is to use 'friends of China\ Indian media to run a vituperate harangue against Japan and its rising militarism! As if India cares!

    China has good reasons to worry about Japan, given the humiliation and horror Japan had heaped on China for which China 'celebrates' her campaign of 100 Years of National Shame, but India has no reason to be worried about Japan.

    India has no such horror to talk about from Japan.

    In fact, India should make capital of Japan's advanced technological prowess to its advantage as also have a partner, which is reliable, as an outpost of surveillance in the East!

    This tripartite equation that India is embarking on with definitely be beneficial to Indian industry, defence production and will shore up the defence potential of India vis a vis China and its imperialistic and hegemonic evil eye. It will slow down, if not eliminate China land grabbing lust around Asia. The success of this tripartite equation will draw more Asian country on board and that is what China is running scared about.

    Then floundering defence and foreign policy will certainly look up, after so many years of doldrums.

    China can conjure comfort that South Korea too has had a rocky history with Japan. But then time does not stand still. Given the threat that China projects in tandem with the mercurial and unpredictable surrogate of China i.e. North Korea, South Korea is finding it more comforting in the warm embrace of the tripartite relations than the hot air that China and its ally projects.

    China has a patron like relations with its client Pakistan. China will surely try to balance the situation by arming Pakistan to the hilt. However, it must be realised that arms alone does not permit a Nation to go to war; it also requires an economy that can sustain a war.

    Unfortunately for China, Pakistan does not boast of such an economy that can sustain war. But then,China could financially also support Pakistan to become economically stable and then strong. That would be the ideal situation for India, not to mention for many others who are inimical to Pakistan and China, namely the US and the West. It would be music to the ear that Pakistan would thus milk China dry, stopping Chinese growth and militarisation, leading China to become weaker than now!

    Three cheers to the success of the Tripartite Agreement!
     
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  15. jon88

    jon88 Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Another myth here, North Korea is no surrogate of China. China do not and can not impose it's will on North Korea like the US does with South Korea. China left the Korean peninsular after the war while the US leeches on till now, just like what they still do with any other war. The US sticks around and won't ever leave. You'll be surprised, most South Koreans believe that their peace talks with North Korea almost always fail because of either ridiculous American demands as well as hardline rhetorics from North Korea.
     
  16. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Not a myth in geopolitics to an extent. Give u an example - who were strongly opposed to German reunification? Its "allies" France and Britain even when Gorbarchev decided to let go of E. Germany !

    Thatcher Opposed German Reunification
    How World Politics Is Made: France and the Reunification of Germany | Foreign Affairs

    Apart from Korean feud with Japan over history and Dokdo Island, below graph tells why S. Korea clings to China despite its confrontation with N.Korea where China plays a mediatorial role.

    [​IMG]

    How will the Japan-India-S.Korea tripartite pact work out? Let's wait and see:pound:
     
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  17. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    Maybe the article below would be wrong, right?

     
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  18. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    This could also help, if it is myth that NK is dependent on China or not.

    And hence a sort of surrogate.
     
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  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko



    Hope not the way the deep strategic relationship of the US and India is panning out! ;)
     
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  20. marshal panda

    marshal panda Regular Member

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan, South Ko

    The no of Chinese incursions were conveniently forgotten !
     
  21. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Re: China signals concerns over India being courted by Japan South Kor

    exactly i am in favor of giving nukes and missiles to Japan and SK, Plus we can build nuke boomer class submarine for mutual benefit. What do you say?
     

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