China out to clip India�s wings: RAW

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by natarajan, Sep 18, 2009.

  1. natarajan

    natarajan Senior Member Senior Member

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    The Ministry of External Affairs may be playing down the incidents of repeated incursions by China, but the country’s external intelligence agency Research and Analysis Wing (RAW) has raised alarm bells about the Dragon embarking on a long-term strategy to encircle India and thwart it from emerging as a major regional power.

    In a presentation made before the Directors General of Police and intelligence officials on Thursday, RAW pointed out that China was making massive investment in India’s neighbouring countries like Burma, Nepal and Sri Lanka and courting Pakistan to isolate India.

    RAW said China was determined to prevent India from increasing its influence in the neighbourhood and that is why Beijing had decided to open its coffers to befriend these nations that badly needed foreign investments.

    Outlining China’s future plan, RAW said Beijing wanted to replace the US as the world's number one super power by 2050 and at present it wanted to consolidate both its economic and military might.

    The intelligence agency, which plays a major role in formulating India’s external policy, feels that since China was primarily focusing on achieving this objective, it was unlikely to undertake any military adventure against any nation, including India, which could derail its own economy.

    Explaining this, a senior officer present at the meeting, told The Pioneer that the sense he got from the RAW presentation was that India was heavily relying on assessment that China would wait for four decades and emerge as world’s number one before flexing its military might. “Many of us have serious doubt about the agency’s assessment,” he said.

    Commenting on the recent Chinese incursions, RAW said these were part of the well-planned design to keep India on the tenterhooks and force it to deviate attention from its primary development objectives. “As such we feel that the pinpricks of incursion would continue,” the RAW said.

    Another senior official told The Pioneer that India did not want to play up reports of the Chinese incursions and come under ‘popular’ pressure to go for massive military expansion and arm acquisition to match the Chinese might. “While China was in a position to undertake both military and economic expansion simultaneously, India could ill-afford to get into such a race,” he said.

    In RAW analysis of things, China’s relations with Pakistan are facing some strain due to terror attacks inside China by Muslim terrorists who have been trained in Pakistan and Afghanistan.

    Meanwhile, a meeting of top officials convened by National Security Adviser MK Narayanan on Thursday to discuss the situation along the Sino-Indian border has been postponed.

    The meeting was of the China Study Group that comprises senior officials, including Cabinet Secretary KM Chandrasekhar and Secretaries of Defence, Home and Foreign Ministries.

    The meeting was understood to have been postponed in the wake of “media hype” on the Chinese incursions along the Sino-Indian border and fresh dates are yet to be worked out.

    There was intense media focus on the meeting in the wake of recent reports of incursions by the Chinese Army in Ladakh, including air dropping of expired food cans, painting of rocks red, besides others.

    Top officials of the three armed forces and the Intelligence Bureau also attended the meeting.
    source
     
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  3. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    tell me one thing why can`t we expand military as well as economically simultaneously . we must not panic about Chinese excursion on indo-china border. we must be alert but not panic.i think it must be Chinese ploy to see our reaction.they must be planning for something in future.
     
  4. tharikiran

    tharikiran Regular Member

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    That's what we are doing. We are growing economically and expanding/strengthening militarily.If China had to attack India, it would have done by now. I believe in the last 50 years there must have been many vulnerable moments for India.China can't do it now. India has crossed that threshold and the Chinese know it.
    I don't think anyone except the media is panicking.They are doing it for their TRP's and want to save us from showing youtube videos in their channels as news.:blum3: They can't take Arunachal Pradesh from us through force and they know that too.
     
  5. SATISH

    SATISH DFI Technocrat Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well I had the pleasure of meeting a Chinese Retired General when I was in Russia..I asked him if China would attack India he told me that if the Top brass or the politicians are high on Chinese opium only then such a possibility will occur. Chinese arent stupids people remember that. but being ready is not going to hurt anyone.
     
  6. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Refering to MR Tharis' post above . Basically i do agree with his assessment and the present china scare tactics may be just that plus playing to a home crowd that needs to see china as "powerful" in a time of economic difficulties plus a long time china statement about the disputed territories, but nothing much can be done militarily and they also do value the commercial relationship so i feel it is playing to home crowd mostly.
    Nevertheless it does have many echoes to the pre 1962 situation and so it is good that our military plus RAW are aware of the possibilities.
    I would trust the military's assessment more than the politicians'.
     
  7. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    More people capitalising on jingoism and fear-mongering. I highly doubt this is coming from RAW.
     
  8. Sabir

    Sabir DFI TEAM Senior Member

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    India and China both are expanding and modernizing their military power rapidly. Ten more years down the line, it will become almost impossible for China to go for a war against India ( even if China will have the numerical supremacy in many fronts) as India will have more than credible deterrence to counter any Chinese aggressiveness.

    But it will be foolishness if we completely underestimate recent incidents in border. Since I was born there was never so much fuss about Chinese intrusion. True, nobody wants a war as that will hurt both economies severely. What I believe China is trying to play a nerve game with India. Probably they are speculating that India will not give fitting reply fearing an escalation to a full fledged war which will allow them inch forward to what they consider their territory. In a situation like this India should clearly give the message that she has the courage to see the end of it if necessary. I am happy GOI, though quite prudently not making much panic in public, taking some good steps. Deploying Sukhoi-30MKI in the North-East and Andaman is a clear message that we are not going to hesitate using air-power to repel Chinese adventure in Indian soil and India is ready to slap them where they are not so strong (read Indian Ocean) If situation really worsen from here India should talk tough. Only that can give them the message.
     
  9. Koji

    Koji New Member

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    It is not the first time a high level Indian official has said something along this line. Admiral Mehta also encouraged India not to get into an arms race with China. For India to match China dollar for dollar in spending, it'll have to increase it's GDP spending % higher than China will, if you consider the economy size differences. This is what the official meant I believe.
     
  10. peacecracker

    peacecracker Regular Member

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    The First Thing a Nation like India must do is ,to Strengthen it's arsenal;I mean ,this is a country of Billion plus Population .Democracy is the Way of this Nation;But ,when it comes to Border Security ,Government must invest Heavily since all the Neighbouring countries are Either affected By terrorism or just have stagnant growth perspective.China will effectively use them.Economic growth will be High ,if The Eastern states where the China allegedly train Maoists,Naxelites against this Secular,Democratic Great Country of India are shown the Path of Development,better Economic conditions.
    Are Nepal's Maoists a threat to India?: Rediff.com news
    Some Good Steps by India Government:
    Govt finds out: 25k Chinese entered India on biz visas but are in unskilled jobs
     
  11. mattster

    mattster Respected Member Senior Member

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    The RAW assessment makes sense but there is one point I have doubt about.

    China cannot afford an all out full-blown conventional armed conflict with India, and i believe they could still grab a small chunk of land and hold on because of their coventional superiority.

    I think that the main thing holding back any major Chinese adventure is not so much Indian capabilities, but the prospect of a South Asia that will view any major land grab by China as a newly assertive belligerent Chinese foreign policy.

    I am talking about Japan, Taiwan, Vietnam, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, and even Mongolia and Russia.......not to mention the US itself.

    All these countries are somewhat leery about China's military ambitions.
    If China tried to take a huge chunk of Indian territory and engaged in a major conventional conflict with India, this will awaken their worst fears and the entire "South Asia defense scenario" will be changed.

    This will be a complete "game changer" and all these countries will start forming regional defensive alliances to counter the China threat.

    I dont think that China would ever do that unless they could match the US in economic and military capabilities. That may take a long time to happen or may never happen.

    But i do think that the Chinese could grab a small enough section of border land, and have a short border conflict with India....that end in a stalemate......just enough to deliver a phychological & humiliating blow to the Indian government.

    They could then pacify their worried neighbours by saying that its was a disputed border anyway and its no big deal. It would also improve the CCP standing at home tremendously.
     
  12. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    Well, at least we know that the different functionaries of the government are playing their roles as they should: the politicians by assuaging fears with their diplomatic card and insuring damage against bilateral relations, and the external intelligence agency with its caution against nothing other than ever-vigilance.

    In the past few years, the RAW has become the most proficient and compelling external intelligence agency in South Asia - from Afghanistan to Pakisthan to the political coup in Nepal and the installation of friendly governments in Bangladesh, and even the thwarting of the Tamil Tigers (which, despite internet speculation to the contrary, could not have been possible without the explicit assent of the Indian Government). Interestingly, the IB (also the world's oldest intelligence agency) - or the Intelligence Bureau- has been ranked among the world's top five internal intelligence agencies by the Strategic Forecasting Group in 2007 for its strengths in "physical surveilance, including lock picking, safe cracking, key impressions, finger printing, photography, electronic surveillance (audio (bugging) or visual (micro cams)), mail manipulation (flaps and seals), and forgery." See: Raakshaseeyam: India's IB among top five intelligence agencies in the world
     
  13. ppgj

    ppgj Senior Member Senior Member

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    it just may not be media going ballistic. look at the confusion. first MOE and the ARMY differ with each other about incursions. at the same time MOE takes it upto chinese. then you see PM, NSA say nothing to worry. at the same time we see news reports about replenishing the troops in the ladakh area and convoys of troops being sent to AP. IAF transport a/c lands at nyoma which is significant. then army too denies incursions as serious. total chaos. good that media did what it did even if it for TRP. atleast it forced the govt to act.
     
  14. tharikiran

    tharikiran Regular Member

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    Yes, I agree with you. Nothing wrong with the media going ballistic.
    It's a win win situation.If the Gov. was sleeping, they did wake them up.
    The meeting was arranged and canceled in haste due to heightened media interest.When it comes to national security over reaction is always better than no reaction.
     
  15. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    hi guys

    its ture we will have to face china some day we are going in the same conditon as us and soviet russia was before the cold war

    its a very important time we must have to increase the speed of modernization of our force and we also have to increase our numbers

    guys we are far behind from china is true if we really want to do some thing we must have to say no to all china product all like toys electronic items

    we must have to support our local products

    just buy made in india and say to to china

    jai hind
     
  16. Scientist

    Scientist Regular Member

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    China using Nepal study centres for spying?

    NEW DELHI: Incursions by the Chinese army into Indian territory may have dominated news space in the past few months but India's external
    intelligence agency RAW has warned that a more serious issue at hand is the mushrooming of rather innocuously named Nepal-China study centres in Nepal which are being used by the Chinese to spy on India.

    Highly placed officials in the government revealed that RAW has conveyed to the government that these study centres, which are located all along the Indo-Nepal border, are being used to clandestinely gather information on Indian activities. Sources said the agency has identified 24 such centres, most of which are located in close proximity to Nepal's border with India.

    It is not just these study centres in Nepal which have left Indian agencies racking their brains. Sources revealed that RAW is monitoring around 30 Chinese firms which have set up base in Nepal and may be involved in spying on India.

    Sources said most of these firms were headed by former PLA officers making it almost mandatory for India to keep an eye on their activities. They cited example of some construction and telecom companies which are active in Nepal and their operations are headed by retired Chinese army officers.

    According to Indian officials, the speed at which the study centres have come up in the past few years is a manifestation of the way in which China has tried to increase its influence in Nepal. Beijing has been offering military and financial assistance to Nepal and its envoy in Nepal Quo Guohang said last month that if Nepal faces threats to its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, China would help it not only militarily but also financially and diplomatically.

    "RAW is aware of the situation. These centres are mostly located close to Nepal's open border with India. There is an understanding developing within the government that if this continues, the issue will have to be taken up diplomatically with Nepal," said a senior security official. These study centres are mostly headed by Chinese and are supposed to provide an insight into Chinese customs, language and economic development.

    China has gone out of its way to present itself before Nepal as an alternative to India in the past two years and has promoted multi-level interactions with Nepal and its people. Beijing is constructing a highway connecting Lhasa to Kathmandu at a cost of over $100 million. The two countries are seeing enhanced military cooperation. In September 2008, China announced a $1.3 million military aid package for Nepal and three months later PLA promised another $2.6 million for the same purpose.

    SOURCE: China using Nepal study centres for spying? - India - NEWS - The Times of India
     
  17. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    its not whether if china is ready to clip india's wings but whether india really have wings that china can clip.
     
  18. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    They already banned Chinese toys earlier this year. Maybe it would be a good idea to ban all non-essential items but I doubt it would hold up in court of the WTO.
     
  19. mattster

    mattster Respected Member Senior Member

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    There are more than 1 billion Indians worldwide - lets boycott China !!

    I totally agree with the idea of Indians everywhere in the world boycotting Chinese products.

    There are over a billion Indians worlwide.....we certainly have some spending clout.

    I am an American Indian NRI - why should I support buying Chinese products with my hard-earned money from a country that has been covertly and now overtly hostile to India.

    I will only buy a Chinese made products if there is no substitute from another country. Sometimes I may buy an American product that is manufactured in China but even then, I will look for substitutes before I buy them.

    I started doing this a few years ago when i saw how aggressive China was becoming towards the Dalai Lama. I will continue with my No China policy !!

    Indian buying power is only going to increase !!
     
  20. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Please, feel free to boycotting chinese product. That will definitely force the chinese producer to improve the quality agin and again. Thank you.
     

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