China May `Crash' anytime, Faber Says

Discussion in 'China' started by badguy2000, Apr 26, 2011.

  1. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2010-...rash-in-next-nine-months-marc-faber-says.html

    BTW,the above article was published in early May,2010.

    So, according to the article, China might "crash" anytime now.:thumb:

    let's just wait and see the coming "crash" of CHina.....
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2011
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    ^^ BadGuy2000, how reliable do you think the above predictions are? If they are true, in totality, or in part, why? If not, why?
     
  4. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    Beijing March New House Prices Plunge 26.7% M/M
    Monday, April 11, 2011

    BEIJING (MNI) - Prices of new homes in China's capital plunged 26.7% month-on-month in March, the Beijing News reported Tuesday, citing data from the city's Housing and Urban-Rural Development Commission.

    Average prices of newly-built houses in March fell 10.9% over the same month last year to CNY19,679 per square meter, marking the first year-on-year decline since September 2009.

    Home purchases fell 50.9% y/y and 41.5% m/m, the newspaper said, citing an unidentified official from the Housing Commission as saying the falls point to the government's crackdown on speculation in the real estate market.

    Beijing property prices rose 0.4% m/m in February, 0.8% in January and 0.2% in December, according to National Bureau of Statistics data.

    The central government has launched several rounds of measures since last year designed to cool the housing market, though local government reliance on land sales to plug fiscal holes mean enforcement hasn't been uniform.


    http://imarketnews.com/node/29203
     
  5. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well, at least when it was published in early May,2010,many guys here like Mr Armand were quite ready to accept it excitely....

    of course, I don't know what they think of it now......in fact , I really want to know what they want to do now.
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2011
  6. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    If Beijing is any indicator... the bubble is starting to burst.
     
  7. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    CCP top bosses declare that the boss of local CCP would be "punished",if the local house price were to keep rocketing.....
     
  8. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    I really doubt if they meant to collapse housing prices 27% in 30 days. :pound:
     
  9. Rage

    Rage DFI TEAM Stars and Ambassadors

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    China's collapse is not imminent. Their internal markets are now big enough to countenance any large spending out of reserves in the events of crises. The younger generation has reported effective savings rates of close to 12% and consumer finance reforms have also spurred more consumption among younger Chinese. Wage growth has been in the high double digits and their fixed investment strategies, unlike Japan, are geared towards confidence-building and maintaining employment rolls. China will slow down however. Wage inflation is now a serious concern for low-end manufacturing companies, manifested in that, Foxconn, the of semiconductors to prefabricated chips, is mulling a $12 billion investment into Brazil as China no longer has a cheap labor pool.
     
  10. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    as usual, the coming-out of any "china-to-collaspe" always arouses lots of excitement among some people here.
     
  11. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    the last word is the truth.

    In the coming decade, CHina would have to mass-induct cheaper labour from poorer countries,such as southeast Asia and South Asia.

    People would have more and more chance to see Indian workers,sncurity or other blue-collars in China....
     
  12. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    With such a huge population in china which still needs jobs and is below poverty line how good that step will be. it will leas to resentment among local masses. Also you forgot that bulk of manufacturing is done by MNC's . They would prefer to move out of China instead of importing labour into china.
     
  13. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Interesting.

    I'd really like India companies to setup shop in PRC, have the top bosses as Indians with a few Chinese, and the labour force from all over PRC, with special care given to the Tibetans w.r.t. employment and promotions as a matter of policy, in the lines of affirmative action.

    This might piss some people off, but that is the way things work in many places. For example, the BMW Factory in Greer, South Carolina, has US workers for semi-skilled jobs, but most of the management are Germans.
     
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    guy, the move of supplying-chains is much more difficult than you think....besides, the move of infrastructure is impossible.

    now, I am in Xiamen, a beautiful city for a business trip. I notice that almost all cleaning workers here are as old as the following pictures...obviously, no CHinese younth people are ready to accept such low-end jobs.
    so what would happen if those old cleaning worker retire?...obviously, they would be repaced with the foreign labours from poorer countries....


    case in CHina is that there is a shortage of "blue-collar" labours ,while there is a shortage of "white_collars" jobs.
    So, the average salary of fresh college students are even less than the average salary of most blue-collar workers.

    [​IMG]
     
    Last edited: Apr 26, 2011
  15. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    Nice logic . But I thought that we were talking about skilled and semi skilled workforce. Specially in manufacturing units. If you have lots of immigrants taking up the jobs public resentment is obvious . Its same for underdeveloped, developing and developed economies .

    Regarding moving out of China . When they were able to move manufacturing units from USA or Europe to china whats so difficult in moving out of China. It will be done in a phased manner .
     
  16. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    of course those skilled or semi-skilled jobs would be kept for CHinese......foreign labours would be used mainly as 2D(dirty,dangerous) jobs such as security,waitors/waitress,construction workers ,babisitters and cleaning workers....


    well, if you have a look into the forigen labours in Japan and Taiwan,you would know what is the role of foreign labours in PRC in one decade.
     
  17. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    BG Japan and Taiwan have much bigger economy and smaller population. They donot have any option but to import foreigners to do low level jobs . Same goes to many european countries. In case of populous countries like India and china we have big economy but population is even bigger . China still has lots of unemployed people who need jobs despite such a rapid growth in economy.
     
  18. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    it has nothing to do with population,but with the economy level.

    when the economy of one country is developed enough, the shortage of low-end labours will appear always....
     
  19. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    China PMI indicates manufacturing stagnating

    [​IMG]

    Growth is anything over 50, below is decline. If the PMI follows annual trends, it is going to dip into contraction by July.
     
  20. AOE

    AOE Regular Member

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    The least that can be said for now is that Chinas growth is unsustainable from an economic perspective, they can't remain at 10% forever, and even then that amount of growth is overly-inflated.
     
  21. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    ok. Let's mark your reply and wait until July....I hope that you won't disaapear in July,just as Mr. Vlamdimir79 did.
     

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