China, India 'may stir up regional war': army report

Discussion in 'Foreign Relations' started by LETHALFORCE, May 9, 2009.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    China, India 'may stir up regional war': army report | The Australian


    China, India 'may stir up regional war': army report

    Cameron Stewart | May 09, 2009
    Article from: The Australian

    AN internal army report has given a more threatening assessment of China's military expansion than was publicly stated in the defence white paper, warning bluntly that it could "destabilise" the region.

    The report, obtained by The Weekend Australian, also makes more hawkish comments about India's military ambitions than Defence has admitted.

    A draft copy of an army report, Army's Future Land Operating Concept, due to be finalised in September, warns about China and India's military ambitions.

    "China and India's growing military ambitions, matched by growing military spending, have the potential to destabilise the region with their military expansion," the report states.

    The defence white paper released last Saturday warned only that China's military modernisation might "give its neighbours cause for concern if not carefully explained".

    The different wording in the documents suggests the white paper was toned down for public release to avoid causing offence in Beijing and New Delhi.

    The army document is more pessimistic than the white paper about future regional stability, warning of a "real potential" for war between major powers.

    "China, and potentially India ... have the potential to challenge US (strategic) dominance within their regions," the report states. "Of particular concern is an increased likelihood for dispute escalation as a result of changes to the perceived balance of power with the real potential for a return to major combat operations involving states."
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  3. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    Chinese Ambitions are surely a headache for the coming years but as for as The Australian is concerned it is famous for its Hawkish comments rather facts . Are they going to justify their huge defence spending by publishing this report ?

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  4. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    I still don't know if that is enough spending when you are talking about the 2 titans of Asia, even doubling or tripling the spending may not be enough, Australia is in an isolated part of the world while it's allies are far way, no amount of spending will change this fact, their population of the whole continent is about the population of a few large Asian cities.
     
  5. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    I wonder why Pakistan is not mentioned in this article?? They(taliban/al queda) are also defeating NATO in Afghanistan? Also Russia strangely not mentioned the supplier of all the toys to the 2 nations.
     
  6. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    I agree on that LF Sir, actually I was talking on the background of this report posted by Sailor :http://www.defenceforum.in/forum/in...huge-military-build-up-planned-australia.html

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  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    yes I know Pintu but i don't think any amount of spending could save them in the scenarios they are presenting, and the present economic situation would make their allies reluctant..
     
  8. Pintu

    Pintu New Member

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    That is true , and I agree with that LF Sir, and I am also not in opinion that they can match either China or India by their(Australian's) purchasing, and also Sir, in my opinion The Newspapers like The Australian are hawkish.

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  9. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    21 million people against 2.5 billion is a slight mismatch, also the militarization by Australia will also have reactions from Malaysia and Indonesia.
     
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Army may be outgunned, despite extra funds - www.smh.com.au

    Army may be outgunned, despite extra funds

    By Mark Metherell
    December 16, 2003


    Australia's land forces would be limited to relatively small-scale operations even with the increased spending earmarked by the Government, an analysis of defence options has found.

    While current and planned naval and air forces would enable Australia to retain regional superiority in those theatres, the army might struggle in any major regional conflict, despite its post-Timor expansion, according to the government-funded Australian Strategic Policy Institute.

    The unprecedented public assessment of what defence forces Australia could afford at differing levels of defence spending makes no conclusions on a preferred course.

    It examines the military capabilities and operations that could be afforded under five different levels of defence spending, from a modest 1.3 per cent of GDP up to to 2.5 per cent.

    Current spending is 1.9 per cent of GDP but is expected to slip to 1.7 per cent by 2011 as increased defence spending is overhauled by even higher economic growth.

    The report, prepared by an institute director, Mark Thomson, says even with the current defence budget of about $15.4 billion, problems remain in all three services.

    "For example, some would argue that army remains understrength to meet the Government's objectives, especially in support and logistics areas - even with the additional personnel provided after East Timor and to operate new capabilities."

    The relatively small number of air warfare destroyer ships, early-warning aircraft and air refuellers limited the capacity of the navy and air force to operate in several places at once "and risks severe degradation of capability if we were to take losses in combat".

    The Government's current development plans would maintain Australia as "a substantial maritime power in the Asia-Pacific", able to offer substantial air, naval or special forces to regional or global coalition forces, "even against quite capable adversaries".

    Australia would have the capacity to undertake and lead "modest" land operations in its immediate neighbourhood and to contribute to regional peace operations further away.

    "Nonetheless our land force capabilities would remain limited by their size and weight to relatively small-scale operations."

    The report says while the army is "very high quality" it is very small and relatively lightly equipped. "Soldier for soldier it is a match for any army in the region, but overall its weight in our wider region is slight."

    Of the four other options assessed, the lowest funding level of $13.1 billion a year would force Australia to scale down contributions to coalition forces and limit its ability to play a leading military role in its neighbourhood.

    Over the long term, a low defence budget would erode air defence capability as regional countries overtook Australia's outdated air combat and naval forces.

    At the highest level of defence spending considered by the report, $24.9 billion, Australia would have a substantial capability for "power projection" beyond its maritime approaches.

    This would move the focus away from relatively low-level land operations in Australia's immediate neighbourhood towards a capacity for big contributions to major land campaigns against capable adversaries.

    Under the big-spending option, "Australia's standing as a regional power and as a United States ally would be significantly enhanced", the report maintains.

    Dr Thomson said yesterday that too often the defence spending debate got hung up on how much was spent without looking at what was being delivered for the money.

    The report did not identify a preferred option because its aim was to promote a more focused debate on defence spending, he said.
     

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