China Economy: News & Discussion

[badguy2000]

per capita auto sale also can reflects the real quality of life than per capita nominal GDP does,because cars are usually the most expensive household appliance for ordinary families.

the follow is the per capita auto sales all over the world 2016

highly developed economies:

1.USA,every 1K residents bought 55.1 autos , per nomial GDP 50000+ USD;
2.Canada, every 1K residents bought 54.8 autos, per nomial GDP 50000+ USD;
3.German,every 1K residents bought 44.9 autos, per nomial GDP 40000+ USD;
4.UK.every 1K residents bought 47.6 autos, per nomial GDP 40000+ USD;
5.Japan,every 1K residents bought 39.2 autos, per nomial GDP 37000+ USD;
6.France,every 1K residents bought 38.4 autos, per nomial GDP 38000+ USD;
8.Italy,every 1K residents bought 33.5 autos, per nomial GDP 30000+ USD;


moderately developed economies
9.S.Korea,every 1K residents bought 35.9 autos, per nomial GDP 27000+ USD;
10.Czech,every 1K residents bought 27.6 autos, per nomial GDP 18000+ USD;
11.Spain,every 1K residents bought 29.1 autos,per nomial GDP 27000+ USD;
12.Portugal,every 1K residents bought 23.7 autos,per nomial GDP 19000+ USD;
13.Crotia,every 1K residents bought 12.8 autos,per nomial GDP 11000+ USD;
14.Poland,every 1K residents bought 13.33 autos,per nomial GDP 12000+ USD;
15.Taiwan,every 1K residents bought 11.1 autos,per nomial GDP 22000+ USD;
16.Russia,every 1K residents bought 9.8 autos, per nomial GDP 8000-14000 USD;
17.Greece,]every 1K residents bought 8.8 autos,per nomial GDP 19000+ USD;

Unqiue economy
18.china, every 1K residents bought 20.3 autos, per nomial GDP 8000+ USD;

mid-income economies
19.Argentina, every 1K residents bought 16.3 autos, per nomial GDP 12000+ USD；
20.chile,every 1K residents bought 17.6 autos,per nomial GDP 12900+ USD;
21.Turkey，every 1K residents bought 12.8 autos, per nomial GDP 9000+ USD;
22.Brazil,every 1K residents bought 9.9 autos, per nomial GDP 10000+ USD;
23.Mexico,every 1K residents bought 13.5 autos, per nomial GDP 8000+ USD;
24.Tailand,every 1K residents bought 11.1 autos, per nomial GDP 5000-6000+ USD;

low-income econommies
25.Egypt,every 1K residents bought 2.9 autos, per nomial GDP 3000+ USD;
26.Vietnam,every 1K residents bought 2.9 autos, per nomial GDP 2000+ USD;
27.india,every 1K residents bought 2.8 autos, per nomial GDP 1700+ USD;
28.Laos,every 1K residents bought 1.5 autos, per nomial GDP 1900+ USD;
29.Pakistan,every 1K residents bought 1.1 autos,per nomial GDP 1400+ USD

least-industrialized eocnomies
21.Bangladesh，every 1K residents bought 0.3 autos, per nomial GDP 1300+ USD;
22.Nepal,every 1K residents bought 0.3 autos,per nomial GDP 700+ USD;
23.Angola,every 1K residents bought 0.3 autos,per nomial GDP 3300+ USD;
22.Sudan,every 1K residents bought 0.1 autos,per nomial GDP 2381+ USD;

 

[badguy2000]

Conclusions:
1. generally speaking,the more per capita auto sale is, higher the real quality of life is,richer the ordinary poeple are.

2.30(auto sale per 1K residents) seems to be the threshold of highly developed economies.
S.korea is crossing into the club of 'highly developed economy'(every 1K residents bought 35.9 autos)
it explains people's impression that S.korea's industry is much more advanced than Spain and Portugal.
it also explains that why G7 is G7

3. there are some 'fake developed economies'.
the auto sale per 1K residents tells us that their real quality of life is lower than many developing countries ,although they are widely accepted as 'developed countries', such as Greece( 8.8), Russia( 9.8 ) and Taiwan(11.1)
the data explain exactly why Greece is asking for ass-saving.it is in fact a developing country disguised as a developed one, by cooking GDP


4.China is a unique one of devloping countries .its per capita auto sale(20.3) is the most among developing countries and is quite close to Spain and portugal,much more than those 'fake developed economies' like greece and Taiwan.
the data can explain why Chinese tourists wow: 'what a $hithole it is ' ,after visiting Greece,Taiwan and many countries in East europe.

5.the auto sale per 1k residents of most mid-income economies is between 10-20.


6.the auto sale per 1k residents of most low-income economies is between 1-5.

7.the auto sale per 1k residents of the least industrialized economies is less than 1,however much their per capita nominal GDP is .
for example, Angola has a per nominal GDP of 3300+USD,much higher than that of India,but its per capita auto sale proves that ordinary Agolian can not afford family cars at all,lthe real quality of life in Angolia is much lower than that in India.

 

[badguy2000]

thus, by analysising the per capita electricity consumption ,per capital auto sale and per capita nominal GDP, what is out conclusion?
HERE ARE:

1. per capita GDP can not tell us the whole stroy of the real quality of life and developement in the world.


2.S.korean consumes more electricity and afford more cars than people in other moderate developed countries, stepping on threshold of the club of 'highly developed economies' like Italy and France.

3.Many of 'developed economies' like Greece and Taiwan are declining and might be driven out the club in the coming decade.
Argentina is the example.

4.CHinese consumes more electricity and afford more cars than people in other developing countries ,stepping on the threshold of the club of 'moderate developed economeis' like Spain and Portuga.


5. it is not easy for mid-income ecnomies to be lifted into the club of 'moderate developed economies'.
instead,almost all developing economies (like Brazil and Mexica) are traped into 'mid-income trapes' for decades,except S.kroea,Taiwan and mainland China(maybe)

6..the industrialization in India has just started, India has not stepped into the hardest phrase of industrilazation yet,which is full of trapes(land-collecting, infrastructure ,sweatshops,, mid-income trapes.....).

7.the industrialization of the least industrialized economies like Nepal and Sudan even has not really started yet. the most people there live a pre-industrilazation life.

 

[rockdog]

Another view, according to official data from BMW, Benz, VW groups, the luxury car sales in China at 2017:

http://auto.eastday.com/a/180126195044883.html
Benz: 610,965 with average of USD80,000/pcs
Audi (no VW brand included): 595,700 with average of USD55,000/pcs
BMW: 594,388 with average of USD70,000/pcs


And Benz in India at 2017:
http://auto.163.com/18/0110/01/D7OIBT77000884MM.html#from=relevant
Benz: 15330

We would see some clue about the real gap of purchase power between China and India.
In my mind, the luxury car is the real symbol of China's "upper mid class".

So i think the difference of purchase power between China and India is even bigger than GPD reflects, somewhere 6-8 times...

Another irony thing is:
Land Rover & Jaguar, a Indian owned company:
China at 2017: 146,399,
I remember some data says just thousands sold in India...

per capita auto sale also can reflects the real quality of life than per capita nominal GDP does,because cars are usually the most expensive household appliance for ordinary families.

the follow is the per capita auto sales all over the world 2016

highly developed economies:
。。。

 

[ezsasa]

Another view, according to official data from BMW, Benz, VW groups, the luxury car sales in China at 2017:

http://auto.eastday.com/a/180126195044883.html
Benz: 610,965 with average of USD80,000/pcs
Audi (no VW brand included): 595,700 with average of USD55,000/pcs
BMW: 594,388 with average of USD70,000/pcs


And Benz in India at 2017:
http://auto.163.com/18/0110/01/D7OIBT77000884MM.html#from=relevant
Benz: 15330

Another irony thing is:
Land Rover & Jaguar, a Indian owned company:
China at 2017: 146,399,
I remember some data says just thousands sold in India...

And thanks to you we are seeing much improved vehicles from TATA for Indian market.

Please keep buying Jaguars so that we keep getting “made for India” vehicles.

Just FYI...

Starting 2016 we are getting “made for India” vehicles, earlier we would just adopt foreign vehicles to Indian markets.

Let’s re-discuss this 10 years down the line.

 

[rockdog]

@ezsasa no problem, i think selling Land Rover/Jaguar & Volvo to India & China was the biggest mistake in Westerner's auto industry.

Contrary to the atmosphere in this forum of "Chinese consumer don't like Indian stuff", as the almost same size of consumer market as USA, Chinese consumer already endorse Akmir Khan very very much, even than India...

Aamir Khan’s Secret Superstar earns seven times more money in China in 1 week than what it did in India

https://www.hindustantimes.com/boll...id-in-india/story-vxL1FtqQNNdHBty9BSVRQM.html


Quite interesting, still 6-8 times... :biggrin2:

 

[ezsasa]

@ezsasa no problem, i think selling Land Rover/Jaguar & Volvo to India & China was the biggest mistake in Westerner's auto industry.

Contrary to the atmosphere in this forum of "Chinese consumer don't like Indian stuff", as the almost same size of consumer market as USA, Chinese consumer already endorse Akmir Khan very very much, even than India...

Aamir Khan’s Secret Superstar earns seven times more money in China in 1 week than what it did in India

https://www.hindustantimes.com/boll...id-in-india/story-vxL1FtqQNNdHBty9BSVRQM.html


Quite interesting, still 6-8 times... :biggrin2:

When you have only 3-4 companies controlling all the movies theatres of entire china, it’s easy to make more money.

Further more control the market by releasing only 35 foreign films in a year, it’s not a true competition.

I hope china encourages Aamir Khan more, within a few years he will showing his true libtard colours and he will start lecturing china on human rights.

 

[badguy2000]

I do like Akmir Khan's films like 3idiots . the budget of his films is smaller than Chinese ones and hollyhood one,but his films indeed tell something unique and moving.

the charm of Hollywood films now is fading in China, I do think they are too childish and hollow money-buring game without thoughts.

 

[sthf]

So the conversation about unsustainable debt and cooking of numbers has been side tracked and Amir Khan's movies is now the topic of the day.

Man these Chinis are good.

 

[rockdog]

@sthf no worry, i already showed some data about the true color of Chinese consumer power from foreign source. Cooking books are headaches for regional governments, but each year the central government send their own team for adjustment.

In fact, many small size enterprises are not put into the statistics, like my firm has 30 employees becoz of the it's below 200 employees.

generally speaking, the northern provinces are willing to blow up the GDP, but the southern provinces like to hide their real muscles.

 

[badguy2000]

@sthf no worry, i already showed some data about the true color of Chinese consumer power from foreign source. Cooking books are headaches for regional governments, but each year the central government send their own team for adjustment.

In fact, many small size enterprises are not put into the statistics, like my firm has 30 employees becoz of the it's below 200 employees.

generally speaking, the northern provinces are willing to blow up the GDP, but the southern provinces like to hide their real muscles.

GDP is easy to cook,the purchase power shown by sales is hardly to be cooked.

 

[rockdog]

@badguy2000 may i have your wechat no.? i sent you the private msg

 

[badguy2000]

well,just study the following data, you can easily find that :

1. per capita electricy consumpiton can tell the extent of industrialization.
4000KWH seems to be the threshold of industrialized economies.
Generally speaking, those economies can be looked on as a 'industralized economies ,when its per capita electricty consumption is more than 4000KWH

so,
CHina(4500-5000KWH) and Chile(4000-5000KWH) will be industrialized economies soon,if it is not yet.
the industrialization of India(1000-1300KWH) is still in early phrase.


2. auto sale per 1K residents can tell the real quality of life.
China's one(20.3) is the most of developing economies and even more than many of industrialized economies like Poland,Taiwan,Hungary,Russia and Greece.It means that the real life quality of Chinese might be much higher than its per nominal GDP(8K) shows.

3. both auto sale per 1K residents and per capita electricity show that S.korea might be the main candidate of the next member of G7 club( 'highly industrialzaed economies').

4. the real quality of life in many 'moderate industrialzied economies' might be lower than many devloping economies,such as Greece,Russia and Taiwan ,according to auto sale per 1K residents.

---------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Highly industrialized economies
1.Canada, per capita elctricity consumption 20000+ KWH,every 1K residents bought 54.8 autos, per nomial GDP 50000+ USD;
2.USA,per capita elctricity consumption 14000+ KWH,every 1K residents bought 55.1 autos , per nomial GDP 50000+ USD;
3.UK.per capita elctricity consumption 5000-6000 KWH,every 1K residents bought 47.6 autos, per nomial GDP 40000+ USD;
4.German,per capita elctricity consumption 8000-9000 KWH,every 1K residents bought 44.9 autos, per nomial GDP 40000+ USD;
5.Japan,per capita elctricity consumption 8000-9000 KWH,every 1K residents bought 39.2 autos, per nomial GDP 37000+ USD;
6.France,per capita elctricity consumption 8000-9000 KWH, every 1K residents bought 38.4 autos,per nomial GDP 38000+ USD;
7.Italy,per capita elctricity consumption 4500-5000 KWH,every 1K residents bought 33.5 autos, per nomial GDP 30000+ USD;

Moderate industrialized economies:
8.S.Korea, ，every 1K residents bought 35.9 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 10000+ KWHper nominal GDP 27000+ USD;
9.Spain,every 1K residents bought 29.1 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 5000-6000 KWH，per nominal GDP 27000+ USD;
10.Czech,per capita elctricity consumption 8000-9000 KWH,every 1K residents bought 27.6 autos, per nominal GDP 18000+ USD;
11.Portugal,every 1K residents bought 23.7 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 5000-6000 KWH，per nominal GDP 19000+ USD;
12.Poland,every 1K residents bought 13.33 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 4000-5000 KWH，per nominal GDP 12000+ USD;
13.Hungary,every 1K residents bought 12.6 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 3000-4000 KWH，per nominal GDP 11000+ USD;
14.Taiwan,every 1K residents bought 11.1 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 10000+ KWHper nominal GDP 22000+ USD;
15.Russia,]per capita elctricity consumption 7000-8000 KWH，every 1K residents bought 9.8 autos,per nominal GDP 8000-14000 USD;
16.Greece,every 1K residents bought 8.8 autos,]per capita elctricity consumption 5000-6000 KWH，per nominal GDP 19000+ USD;

Mid-income developing economies:
17.china, every 1K residents bought 20.3 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 4000-5000 KWH， per nomial GDP 8000+ USD;
18.chile,every 1K residents bought 17.6 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 4000-5000 KWH，per nomial GDP 12900+ USD;
19.Argentina, every 1K residents bought 16.3 autos, per capita elctricity consumption 3000-4000 KWH, per nomial GDP 12000+ USD；
mid-income economies with slums
20.Turkey，every 1K residents bought 12.8 autos, per capita elctricity consumption 3000-4000 KWH, per nomial GDP 9000+ USD;
21.Brazil,every 1K residents bought 9.9 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 2000-3000 KWH, per nomial GDP 10000+ USD;
22.Mexico,every 1K residents bought 13.5 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 2000-3000 KWH, per nomial GDP 8000+ USD;
23.Tailand,every 1K residents bought 11.1 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 2000-3000 KWH, per nomial GDP 5000-6000+ USD;
24.Romania,every 1K residents bought 7.2 autos，per capita elctricity consumption 3000-4000 KWH，per nomial GDP 9000+ USD;
25.Peru，every 1K residents bought 5.4 autos，per capita elctricity consumption 1500-2000 KWH，per nomial GDP 6000+ USD;

low-income developing econommies:
26.Egypt,every 1K residents bought 2.9 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 1500-2000 KWH, per nomial GDP 3000+ USD;
27.Vietnam,every 1K residents bought 2.9 autos, per capita elctricity consumption 1500-2000 KWH,per nomial GDP 2000+ USD;
288.india,every 1K residents bought 2.8 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 1000-1300 KWH, per nomial GDP 1700+ USD;
29.Pakistan,every 1K residents bought 1.1 autos,per capita elctricity consumption 500-1000 KWH,per nomial GDP 1400+ USD

 

[asianobserve]

What Happened to China’s Baby Bump?

When James Chen and Subrina Huang first heard in 2015 that top Communist Party of China officials had decided to end the decades-old one-child policy and allow all parents to have a second child, they excitedly considered trying for No. 2. “We thought we might like to have another,” says Chen, 35, sitting in a coffee shop in Shanghai. “I wanted a boy.”

No more. The couple already spends 20,000 yuan ($3,172) a year on extracurricular classes, including English and dance, for their 6-year-old daughter, and costs soar for children as they progress through school. Then there’s the housing issue. “With two children, we would have to consider buying a new place,” says Huang, 33, who earns 5,000 yuan a month working at a flooring company. That’s a daunting prospect in a city where property costs are 91 times the average after-tax salary, according to Numbeo, a website that compiles cost of living data. (In New York, the multiple is 25.)

“Having one baby is already not easy at all,” says Chen, who earns 6,000 yuan a month working as an internal auditing investigator for Dell Inc. “Now, I can’t imagine having a second one.”

Chen and Huang have plenty of company. Speaking in Beijing on Feb. 5, Yang Wenzhuang, an official at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said about four-fifths of Chinese couples say financial pressures are stopping them from having a second child. While the number of newborns surged 7.9 percent, to 17.9 million, in 2016, the first year the policy was loosened, it resumed the downward trend last year, falling by 630,000, or 3.5 percent, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. “Of course, when you change the policy, you are likely to have a spike, but that doesn’t mean it’s sustainable,” says Anke Schrader, a senior researcher at the Beijing-based Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business, who co-authored a Jan. 26 report called “Two-Child Policy Won’t Produce a Baby Boom.” Says Schrader: “The financial burden of bringing up children in China is too much.”

That’s particularly true in China’s cities, where 14.3 percent of total household expenditure goes to children’s education, according to a study published by Peking University last year. Factor in soaring apartment prices, and it’s not altogether surprising that fertility rates in such places as Beijing and Shanghai have dipped below one, probably the lowest in the world, says James Liang, author of The Demographics of Innovation (Wiley, February 2018), a book that looks at the economic implications of China’s aging population. Although fertility is higher in rural areas, women of childbearing age nationwide had an average of just 1.6 offspring last year, which is slightly below Russia and on a par with Canada. (Liang expects the rate in China to start falling again after the initial enthusiasm for the loosened policy dissipates.)

“China faces a baby crisis,” says Wei Siang Yu, a Singaporean doctor and entrepreneur who created Fertility UFO, a video series that launched on Jan. 30, in which doctors dispense tips to real-life couples trying to conceive. The latest government projections have the nation’s population peaking at 1.45 billion around 2030, then falling to just 1 billion by the turn of the century.

The government’s failure to ignite a baby boom is cause for concern in policy circles. On Feb. 7, the state-owned China Daily published an article that said, “There is growing concern that the country may experience a demographic time bomb, because in the decades to come the number of young people is likely to fall below the number required to maintain an optimum level of employment.” China’s working-age population, those 16 to 59, is 902 million, according to the national statistics bureau. But it’s been shrinking since 2012 and fell by 5 million last year. In the decade starting in 2025, China will log 7 million retirees a year. “This will add pressure on China’s lowly and acutely underfunded social welfare programs,” says the Conference Board report. “Workers will bear significant burdens to support their aging parents and grandparents.”

Innovation and entrepreneurialism are likely to also take a hit as China’s workforce becomes older, says Liang, who’s chairman of Ctrip, a website that processes travel and hotel reservations, citing Japan as a cautionary example. Not only will there be fewer young people, who tend to have a higher appetite for risk than their elders, but they’ll be a minority in the work world. “In an aging country, [younger employees] usually have a lower position in a company hierarchy,” Liang says. “They have less management skills, less financial resources, and less social connections as well. So they are less capable as entrepreneurs.”

Policymakers have considered proposals to reduce taxes on larger families and lower the minimum legal marriage age to 18 (it’s 20 for women and 22 for men), but have failed to take action. This year could be different. Delegates to China’s annual National People’s Congress, set to open in early March, are likely to consider tax rebates or even direct subsidies for families that have a second child—and following last year’s disappointing birth numbers, they may finally pass. In addition, China’s health authorities already announced an ambitious plan to add 89,000 maternity beds in hospitals and 140,000 obstetricians and midwives by 2020. Meanwhile, Beijing Mayor Chen Jining unveiled plans in late January to add 30,000 preschool spots and build more kindergartens.

All this is unlikely to reverse the declining birth trend. As the Conference Board’s Schrader points out, China already has relatively generous policies to support families, including an average of 161 days of paid maternity leave. Since the two-child policy was introduced, several provinces have also lengthened paternity leave. Tibet, for example, now offers one-month paid leave to new fathers.

China may be too far along on its development track for these policies to make a difference. As people grow wealthier and more educated, birthrates typically fall around the world, says economist Gan Li of the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu. That’s because couples tend to focus more on their careers and are less interested in having the larger families that traditional societies have favored. “China is already a high-income country in its big cities,” Gan says. “The trend of a lower and lower fertility rate will happen, regardless of policies.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/businessweek



I've talk to several mainland Chinese who have migrated to our City, they all tell me they're not going back to China. That should tell you a lot about the attractiveness of China.

Europe, Canada and the US can easily attract migrants as in fact they're trying to control immigration to their countries. So they have the luxury of being able to choose the best and the brightest among those they will admit into their countries. This is not the case with China. If even mainland Chinese are leaving China you do not expect foreigners to line up to migrate to China to fill out the declining labor force in the future, which does not augur well for China's future.

One of the biggest obstacle I see is the rude culture in China. Chinese in general are very rude and uncaring even to their neighbors. All they care about is what's in it for them. Under this kind of cultural background not even impoverished 3rd World economic migrants would want to live and work in China.

 

[badguy2000]

What Happened to China’s Baby Bump?

When James Chen and Subrina Huang first heard in 2015 that top Communist Party of China officials had decided to end the decades-old one-child policy and allow all parents to have a second child, they excitedly considered trying for No. 2. “We thought we might like to have another,” says Chen, 35, sitting in a coffee shop in Shanghai. “I wanted a boy.”

No more. The couple already spends 20,000 yuan ($3,172) a year on extracurricular classes, including English and dance, for their 6-year-old daughter, and costs soar for children as they progress through school. Then there’s the housing issue. “With two children, we would have to consider buying a new place,” says Huang, 33, who earns 5,000 yuan a month working at a flooring company. That’s a daunting prospect in a city where property costs are 91 times the average after-tax salary, according to Numbeo, a website that compiles cost of living data. (In New York, the multiple is 25.)

“Having one baby is already not easy at all,” says Chen, who earns 6,000 yuan a month working as an internal auditing investigator for Dell Inc. “Now, I can’t imagine having a second one.”

Chen and Huang have plenty of company. Speaking in Beijing on Feb. 5, Yang Wenzhuang, an official at the National Health and Family Planning Commission, said about four-fifths of Chinese couples say financial pressures are stopping them from having a second child. While the number of newborns surged 7.9 percent, to 17.9 million, in 2016, the first year the policy was loosened, it resumed the downward trend last year, falling by 630,000, or 3.5 percent, according to China’s National Bureau of Statistics. “Of course, when you change the policy, you are likely to have a spike, but that doesn’t mean it’s sustainable,” says Anke Schrader, a senior researcher at the Beijing-based Conference Board China Center for Economics and Business, who co-authored a Jan. 26 report called “Two-Child Policy Won’t Produce a Baby Boom.” Says Schrader: “The financial burden of bringing up children in China is too much.”

That’s particularly true in China’s cities, where 14.3 percent of total household expenditure goes to children’s education, according to a study published by Peking University last year. Factor in soaring apartment prices, and it’s not altogether surprising that fertility rates in such places as Beijing and Shanghai have dipped below one, probably the lowest in the world, says James Liang, author of The Demographics of Innovation (Wiley, February 2018), a book that looks at the economic implications of China’s aging population. Although fertility is higher in rural areas, women of childbearing age nationwide had an average of just 1.6 offspring last year, which is slightly below Russia and on a par with Canada. (Liang expects the rate in China to start falling again after the initial enthusiasm for the loosened policy dissipates.)

“China faces a baby crisis,” says Wei Siang Yu, a Singaporean doctor and entrepreneur who created Fertility UFO, a video series that launched on Jan. 30, in which doctors dispense tips to real-life couples trying to conceive. The latest government projections have the nation’s population peaking at 1.45 billion around 2030, then falling to just 1 billion by the turn of the century.

The government’s failure to ignite a baby boom is cause for concern in policy circles. On Feb. 7, the state-owned China Daily published an article that said, “There is growing concern that the country may experience a demographic time bomb, because in the decades to come the number of young people is likely to fall below the number required to maintain an optimum level of employment.” China’s working-age population, those 16 to 59, is 902 million, according to the national statistics bureau. But it’s been shrinking since 2012 and fell by 5 million last year. In the decade starting in 2025, China will log 7 million retirees a year. “This will add pressure on China’s lowly and acutely underfunded social welfare programs,” says the Conference Board report. “Workers will bear significant burdens to support their aging parents and grandparents.”

Innovation and entrepreneurialism are likely to also take a hit as China’s workforce becomes older, says Liang, who’s chairman of Ctrip, a website that processes travel and hotel reservations, citing Japan as a cautionary example. Not only will there be fewer young people, who tend to have a higher appetite for risk than their elders, but they’ll be a minority in the work world. “In an aging country, [younger employees] usually have a lower position in a company hierarchy,” Liang says. “They have less management skills, less financial resources, and less social connections as well. So they are less capable as entrepreneurs.”

Policymakers have considered proposals to reduce taxes on larger families and lower the minimum legal marriage age to 18 (it’s 20 for women and 22 for men), but have failed to take action. This year could be different. Delegates to China’s annual National People’s Congress, set to open in early March, are likely to consider tax rebates or even direct subsidies for families that have a second child—and following last year’s disappointing birth numbers, they may finally pass. In addition, China’s health authorities already announced an ambitious plan to add 89,000 maternity beds in hospitals and 140,000 obstetricians and midwives by 2020. Meanwhile, Beijing Mayor Chen Jining unveiled plans in late January to add 30,000 preschool spots and build more kindergartens.

All this is unlikely to reverse the declining birth trend. As the Conference Board’s Schrader points out, China already has relatively generous policies to support families, including an average of 161 days of paid maternity leave. Since the two-child policy was introduced, several provinces have also lengthened paternity leave. Tibet, for example, now offers one-month paid leave to new fathers.

China may be too far along on its development track for these policies to make a difference. As people grow wealthier and more educated, birthrates typically fall around the world, says economist Gan Li of the Southwestern University of Finance and Economics in Chengdu. That’s because couples tend to focus more on their careers and are less interested in having the larger families that traditional societies have favored. “China is already a high-income country in its big cities,” Gan says. “The trend of a lower and lower fertility rate will happen, regardless of policies.”


https://www.bloomberg.com/businessweek



I've talk to several mainland Chinese who have migrated to our City, they all tell me they're not going back to China. That should tell you a lot about the attractiveness of China.

Europe, Canada and the US can easily attract migrants as in fact they're trying to control immigration to their countries. So they have the luxury of being able to choose the best and the brightest among those they will admit into their countries. This is not the case with China. If even mainland Chinese are leaving China you do not expect foreigners to line up to migrate to China to fill out the declining labor force in the future, which does not augur well for China's future.

One of the biggest obstacle I see is the rude culture in China. Chinese in general are very rude and uncaring even to their neighbors. All they care about is what's in it for them. Under this kind of cultural background not even impoverished 3rd World economic migrants would want to live and work in China.

hehe,
1.china has soo many talent guys.
East asians ( chinese ,japanese,koreans)have global highest average IQ (106).
china has global.largest population.
thus,china of course has most talents naturally.

2. resources in china are too limited for such a large population.

3.so talent chinese have to work hard,struggle for limited resource in china.

4.thus, the competition in china is usually much more fierce than other countries.
soo many talents guys running for so limited resouce....




4.to exmigrate is a good way for chinese to escape from the fierce competiton in china.
to most Chinese, to competite in a resource~abundant lower-average~IQ societies is usually mush easier than resource-limited 106-average~IQ china.


5. To ordinary foreigners, to work in higher-average_IQ resource~limited china of course is hardly a good idea,because it usually means much more fierce competiton than their native countries,unless they are employers or have special resource/skills.


6.i do think that the higher IQ of east asians has little to do with race,but is relate to education~stressing confucian culture.

 

[nongaddarliberal]

hehe,
1.china has soo many talent guys.
East asians ( chinese ,japanese,koreans)have global highest average IQ (106).
china has global.largest population.
thus,china of course has most talents naturally.

2. resources in china are too limited for such a large population.

3.so talent chinese have to work hard,struggle for limited resource in china.

4.thus, the competition in china is usually much more fierce than other countries.
soo many talents guys running for so limited resouce....




4.to exmigrate is a good way for chinese to escape from the fierce competiton in china.
to most Chinese, to competite in a resource~abundant lower-average~IQ societies is usually mush easier than resource-limited 106-average~IQ china.


5. reading the above,you can understand why oversea chinese are usually richer than locals(especially in southeast asia).


6.i do think that the higher IQ of east asians has little to do with race,but is relate to education~stressing confucian culture.

India is facing the same situation as far as expats go. Indians Americans are presently the wealthiest group per capita in the US, and are near the top in the UK with a disproportionate number of doctors and engineers there. But every Indian who stays in America wants to replicate that kind of success in India. Some have been successfully transferring their skills back into India. But most say that the facilities aren't here in India which allows them to do so. Wasted potential.

 

[badguy2000]

main economic data of CHina 2017 now is publiced.

main index:
GDP 82.71 trillon RMB,growth 6.9%;
population 1.39 billion.
Electricity consumption: 6495.14 billion KWH.
Auto sale:29M

it should be noticed that CHina's per capita electricity consumption now is about 5000KWH and has surpassed italy.
it might be a milestone for CHina,because almost all economies crossing the milestone are widely accepted as industrialized ones.

but, Chinese per capita auto sale is only 70% of Italian's.

Once Chinese per capita auto sale had supassed Italian's,economists might have two explaiantions:

1. lift china to the club of industrialized economies(any economy more industrialized than italy is industrialized one) ;
2. kick italy out of the club of industrialized economies.( any economy lessd industralized than China is developing one)


I think that most chinese would like the second one.

http://www.sohu.com/a/224499107_118392
国家统计局发布2017年国民经济和社会发展统计公报

初步核算，全年国内生产总值827122亿元，比上年增长6.9%。其中，第一产业增加值65468亿元，增长3.9%；第二产业增加值334623亿元，增长6.1%；第三产业增加值427032亿元，增长8.0%。第一产业增加值占国内生产总值的比重为7.9%，第二产业增加值比重为40.5%，第三产业增加值比重为51.6%。全年最终消费支出对国内生产总值增长的贡献率为58.8%，资本形成总额贡献率为32.1%，货物和服务净出口贡献率为9.1%。全年人均国内生产总值59660元，比上年增长6.3%。全年国民总收入825016亿元，比上年增长7.0%。......
[/qutoe]

 

[rockdog]

Looks the manufacture in China is still booming, and most competitive over the world. This is the most important factor for industrialization.

Wondering India's ranking, heard that the Modi's currency reform and new GST policy even hurt the manufactures in India... quite strange, and somebody said the recent India's growth is a jobless growth...

 

[badguy2000]

Looks the manufacture in China is still booming, and most competitive over the world. This is the most important factor for industrialization.

Wondering India's ranking, heard that the Modi's currency reform and new GST policy even hurt the manufactures in India... quite strange, and somebody said the recent India's growth is a jobless growth...

growth does not mean industrialzation naturally.

sometimes, there are non~industrialization(like saudi arabia) or even de~industrialization growth (like russia/brazil).

as we know, s.arania is rich but light~year away from industrialized economy.

RUSSIAn are richet than they During Soviet era, but RUSSIA is less industrialized than soviet.

 

[Armand2REP]

Looks the manufacture in China is still booming, and most competitive over the world. This is the most important factor for industrialization.

maybe not....

China manufacturing gauge suffers sharpest fall in 6 years
Unexpectedly severe slowdown leaves index near zero-growth level, hitting mining shares

Hudson Lockett in Hong Kong 4 hours ago

China’s official gauge of manufacturing activity suffered its largest fall since 2011 in February, an unexpectedly sharp slowdown that left it near the zero-growth level.

The manufacturing purchasing managers’ index published by China’s National Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday dropped to 50.3, down a point from January and the largest fall in more than six years. The fall marked the gauge’s nearest brush with the 50-point mark that separates growth from contraction since August 2016.

The figure was stark enough to unnerve European-listed mining stocks, which depend upon China for a significant part of their revenues. Mining stocks took the biggest toll on London’s FTSE 100 in morning trade, with losses of more than 2 per cent for Rio Tinto, Glencore, BHP Billiton and Anglo American. The Stoxx mining index, which tracks the sector across the region, fell 2.3 per cent against a decline of just 0.3 per cent for the Europe-wide Stoxx 600.

A median forecast from economists polled by Reuters ahead of the PMI data had predicted only a fractional slowdown: none of the 28 forecasts for February had pencilled in a reading below 51 for the gauge, which is based on a survey of larger and predominantly state-run companies...

The next signpost for China’s manufacturers will be Thursday’s Caixin-Markit manufacturing PMI, an independent gauge that focuses on smaller, privately owned manufacturers and acts as a cross-check on the official series.


https://www.ft.com/content/a016463a-1c36-11e8-aaca-4574d7dabfb6