China cuts 2012 growth target to 8-year low of 7.5%

Discussion in 'China' started by Yusuf, Mar 5, 2012.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    BEIJING: Chinese PM Wen Jiabao cut his nation's 2012 growth target to an eight-year low of 7.5% and made boosting consumer demand the year's first priority as Beijing looks to wean the economy off its reliance on external demand and foreign capital.

    He lowered the target from a longstanding annual goal of 8%, a move investors anticipated so that Beijing has some economic leeway to rebalance the economy and defuse price pressures in the run up to a leadership change later this year.

    Lower growth will allow Beijing to reform key price controls without causing an inflation spike, so monetary policy can stay broadly expansionary to ensure a steady flow of credit to the small and medium-sized firms the government wants to encourage.

    "We aim to promote steady and robust economic development, keep prices stable, and guard against financial risks by keeping the total money and credit supply at an appropriate level, and taking a cautious and flexible approach," Wen said in his annual work report to the National People's Congress (NPC), China's annual parliamentary session.

    The premier named "expanding consumer demand" as his first priority for 2012, when the ruling Communist Party must also navigate a leadership handover that will send Wen and President Hu Jintao into retirement in 2013.

    "We will improve policies that encourage consumption," Wen told nearly 3,000 delegates of the Communist Party-controlled legislature, gathered under the harsh lights and high ceilings of the Great Hall of the People.

    "We will vigorously adjust income distribution, increase the incomes of low- and middle-income groups, and enhance people's ability to consume," said Wen.

    His annual state-of-the-nation report to parliament dwelled on the institutional and income barriers the government must break to build a more balanced economy that relies less on exports and shares more wealth with hundreds of millions of poor farmers and migrant workers who are reluctant to spend.

    Wen and Hu have vowed to wean the economy off dependence on exports, smoke-stack industries and government-backed infrastructure, and promote balanced growth that will elevate the incomes and spending of farmers and workers.

    Sources had earlier indicated to Reuters that the growth target would be cut to 7.5%. Growth of level would be the lowest since 1990.

    In reality, the target acts more as a bar to get over. The 8% target set in the previous eight years was comfortably exceeded each year -- including in the aftermath of the 2008/09 financial crisis.

    "In recent years, the GDP target has obviously always been a minimum acceptable floor rather than a ceiling, so I think it is more likely that in the government's heart of hearts, it is leaning on growth of a bit above 8%," said Paul Cavey, an economist with Macquarie Bank in Hong Kong.

    "It seems very unlikely there will be huge progress on structural reforms given the political transition," added Cavey.

    "The slower growth numbers just reflect the reality that growth is going to be slower because the rest of the world is going to be weaker."

    ECONOMIC, REFORM ANXIETIES

    The highest-value part of China's growth and around a quarter of its 800 million-strong workforce are dependent on volatile demand and capital from developed economies.

    Shifting that balance is a key goal for Wen and Hu, both 69, as they near the end of a decade in power which has seen China become the world's second-largest economy after the United States, contributing more to global growth than any other nation, while seeing a chasm widen between rich and poor.

    The number of Chinese billionaires nearly doubled in 2011 to 146 from 2010, Forbes said.

    Stability, steady growth and spreading wealth are core justifications for more than 60 years of one-party rule by the Communist Party, which will install a new cohort of leaders by the end of 2012.

    Wen and Hu will officially step down as premier and president at the national parliament session early next year.

    The last year in power for Wen and Hu has shuddered with anxieties about inflation, a feverish property market, local government debt, stubborn inequality and social strains from protesting villages to ethnic tensions in western regions.

    The NPC is likely to bring into focus a deepening worry that Hu and Wen have squandered chances for reform because of fears of instability ahead of the leadership transition.

    When they hand over power in late autumn, China could be headed for its slowest full-year of growth since Hu and Wen took office a decade ago. The economy ended 2011 with its slackest quarter of growth in 2-1/2 years at 8.9% as it felt the chill of the euro area debt crisis and a sluggish US economy.

    The outlook for the real economy remains cloudy, according to the latest surveys of China's vast factory sector and the burgeoning services industries that are key to rebalancing growth and generating more stable domestic-driven demand.

    A survey from HSBC of purchasing managers in China's services industry showed the sector running at its fastest in four months, although it was well below its long-term trend.

    A similar survey from the National Bureau of Statistics showed services activity running at its slowest pace in a year.

    Meanwhile, surveys last week signalled that activity in big firms bounced back in February on strong new export orders while smaller companies lagged behind the rebound.

    Credit is crucial to keeping the economy turning. Wen projected money supply growth of 14% while setting a 4% target for inflation for the year, in line with the target set in 2011.

    He said the government would work to prevent a rebound in prices in 2012. Inflation remained stubbornly above official targets in every month of last year.

    Wen also pledged to curb speculative demand in the property market, and said the yuan would be kept "basically stable" with strengthened two-way flexibility in the closely managed exchange rate.

    He also said the government would defuse rising local government debt, regarded by many investors as the key risk to fiscal sustainability. Government figures show about 10.7 trillion yuan was owed by local governments at the end of 2010.

    The fiscal deficit was targeted at 1.5% of GDP, up from the 1.1% of GDP in 2011. Spending on domestic security would increase 11.5% to $111 billion.

    Critics, including prominent policy-advisers, have said the Chinese government can foster healthy long-term growth only by taking on bolder reforms to rein in state-owned conglomerates and other entrenched interests -- reforms that ultimately spill into sensitive issues of curbing the party's own powers.

    Wen has stood out among China's leaders as the most persistent advocate of measured political relaxation, and has cast himself as a passionate advocate for farmers struggling with economic insecurity and land lost to developers.

    "We should care more deeply for rural migrant workers and provide more services to them," he said. "We will place farmland under strict protection."

    The Times of India on Mobile
     
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  3. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    China is likely to miss that this year. Most analysts are pegging growth at 5% - 6%. But official figures will say they met targets.
     
  4. Mad Indian

    Mad Indian Proud Bigot Veteran Member Senior Member

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    Its understandable... Even 6% growth is good enough for them for they are now the second largest economy in the world....
     
  5. cir

    cir Senior Member Senior Member

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    The difference between China and India is the following:

    The former promises 7.5% and will deliver 8.5% plus, while the latter hopes for 8% and will be lucky with 6.5%.

    Year 2011 is a good case in point. China aimed for 8% and achieved 9.2%, whilst India started with (dreams of) 9% and will end up with sub 6.7%.
     
  6. satish007

    satish007 Senior Member Senior Member

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    cir, I am glad to see your opinon, yes, different culture. but Chinese also have many ways play with GDP. hopefully the housing contribute less rate than 2011.
     
  7. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    China can keep growing 8%+ for 1-2 decades..period.
     
  8. G90

    G90 Regular Member

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    Culturally speaking, Indians are always tend to make rididuls brags and cannot deiliver, whilst China usually meet their target well before their timeline.

    For instance, in 2000, Chinese officials claim they will surpass Japan and become world 2nd largest economy by 2050, and they acheived so in 2010, thats a bloody 40 year ahead of their schedule.

    Whilst in 2000, indian officials like to claim india will become a superpower by 2020, and we all know how you will end up with.

    Human captial or the lack of it, is the decisive factor to determine a state's real potential, but economists and politicans tend to always happly ignore this main factor, for political correctness reasons or some hidden agenda.

    But still there are a few brave scholars who published a lot of these forbidden truths, and it helps us understand the world a lot of better.
     
  9. Dovah

    Dovah Untermensch Senior Member

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    :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh: :laugh:.
     
  10. G90

    G90 Regular Member

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    China dont need that, I say an average of 6-7% for 20 years then with the correction of RMB value, China, per-captia-wise, when on pair with the developed countries then.

    And China will most likely become the world largest economy (based on market exchange rate, not PPP nonsense) bewteen 2016-2019.
     
  11. Armand2REP

    Armand2REP CHINI EXPERT Veteran Member

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    China is already in contraction...

     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
  12. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    well, CHina will have the potential to keep growing 8%+ until 70%+ of its population live in urban areas...but now, only 50% of thos live in urban area.

    of course, sooner or later,the growth speed of CHina will slow.but it won't happen until Chinese per capital nominal GDP catch up with Europe's and Japan's, that is ,30-40K USD.
     
  13. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    If you grow at 8%+ for 20 years, based on your current growth model, you will have enough housing to shelter every human being on the planet.

    I hope you get the point of this statement.
     
  14. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    hehe, I am sure that before 2015, CHina's per capital nominal GDP will suprass 10K USD, which is the threshold of "hign income economy".

    After that ,due to the appreciation of RMB, even if CHina growth were to slows to 5%,CHinese per capital nominal GDP would easily double to 20K USD before 2025. that is to say, CHIna might become a full developed economy in 2025 or so.

    so, the economy gap between India and CHina will be decided by growth speed India, instead of that of CHina.

    India's per capital nominal GDP is about 1200 USD, CHIna's 5500 USD .
    CHina's one will be 10K USD in 2015 and 20K USD in 2025.

    question is how much India's per capital nominal GDP will be in 2015 and 2025?
     
  15. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    without much house-building, economy can still doubled,because new industry section can appear .

    for example, USA has not invested much in its infrastructures and house-building,since inter-state highways system was finished in 1950s.
    but, USA's GDP still has grew from 1 trillion USD to 14 trillion USD during 1970-2010
    why? PC appeared, mobile phone appeared, then internent appeared,those new industry section made economy grow withou mass-building of infrastructures and house

    so will happen to China.

    when CHinese people needn't so many house, new industry sections will appeared in CHIna, such as highspeed
    railways....

    those emerging industry section will make CHina economy reach a new stage.
     
    Last edited: Mar 7, 2012
  16. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    So you dropped your previously stated growth estimate of minimum 8% to 5% after you read my comment that exposed how ridiculous your claim was. And then thought the best way to save face is to take a swipe at India's GDP. Nice! You'd make your 50 cent peers really proud.

    Understand this - When your per capita income hits 10 USD, how many of your citizens will actually be earning 20K USD assuming a ratio of earning population to non earning population of 1:1. Assuming 70% of them do, what kind of employment do you forsee in your country that will support 20K USD income levels for 500 million people give or take? Will workers who assemble ipods earn that much or those who stich shoes or those who paint toys?

    Emerging industries . Name a few to achieve those scales.
     
  17. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    1、"After that ,due to the appreciation of RMB, even if CHina growth were to slows to 5%,CHinese per capital nominal GDP would easily double to 20K USD before 2025. that is to say"
    guy, do you know the difference between "even if" and "if"?

    just as I refered, highspeed railways is one, it can bring a revolution to the life-style of humankind.

    Japan and West Europe once were the pioneer of high-speed railway, just as UK was the one of tradition railway during the industry revolution of 19th century.
    However, CHina now and will be the dominator of highspeed railway,just as USA did with traditional railway in later 19th cenutry.
     
  18. trackwhack

    trackwhack Tihar Jail Banned

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    So high speed railway is gonna create employment for millions. hmm. Again, Mega Fail.
     

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