China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and IOR

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Yusuf, Dec 15, 2012.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Well all along I had a feeling it was at Chinas behest. Intelligence now confirms.

    What's more important is that it's not just about India losing Maldives to China but it's a three way slugfest between India, China and the US which also will be a loser here if Diego Garcia goes.

    India will have to tag team with the US to keep China out.

    Will use this thread separate from the other thread and discuss the wider strategic implications including one for the US in this thread.

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    NEW DELHI: China's growing ties with the Maldives, blamed discreetly for the scrapped GMR airport deal, may be part of its larger scheme to dominate the strategically-important sea lanes of the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), according to an assessment of the Indian intelligence agencies. Beijing is reportedly wooing Male to pre-empt a US move to set up a new military base in the Maldives' southernmost island of Gan.

    Incidentally, though the ministry of external affairs was rather discreet about the involvement of a 'foreign hand' in the GMR episode, intelligence assessments coming in from Male are more upfront in outlining fears of a China factor.

    Gan, a tourist destination in Addu Atoll that also has an international airport, is considered safe for deep anchorage. The US, sources in the Indian security establishment told TOI, has evinced interest in the former British naval and air force base in Gan for servicing its naval fleet, launching surveillance operations and routing military supplies. This is in sync with US President Barack Obama's "pivot towards Asia" policy.

    Though the Americans have an existing military base in Diego Garcia — also in the Indian Ocean — its 50-year-old lease will expire in 2016. The lease pact for the British-controlled island allows its renegotiation for another 20 years, but with the UK favourably inclined to granting the Mauritian government's demand for sovereignty and resettlement of the native population, the Americans are said to be eyeing an equally strategic alternative site.

    Gan — a Royal Navy base during World War II, then with the Royal Air Force (RAF) base during the Cold War and ultimately vacated by the RAF in 1971 - reportedly fits the bill.

    But with China aspiring to overtake the US as the global superpower in the long run, the Indian intelligence establishment feels it can ill-afford growing American military interests in the IOR waters. Proximity to the Maldives, intelligence reports with New Delhi have pointed out, will not only help Beijing pre-empt the US move but also realize its dream of setting up its own military base in the region.

    The increasing Chinese footprint in the Maldives was evident when it was allotted prime land to open its embassy in Male a couple of months ago. A massive $500 million loan was extended by the Chinese around the same time.

    A recent statement by former Maldivian president, Maumoon Abdul Gayoom, that "China has been with us for 40 years" and that it was "natural for a country with such huge resources to come and help us" indicates Beijing's growing importance to the Maldives vis-a-vis traditional ally India.

    Just three months ahead of the GMR deal was scrapped, Maldivian president Mohamed Waheed, who replaced Mohamed Nausheed in a `coup' in February, paid his maiden visit to China, extolling the latter's approach towards "small countries" and its policy of non-interference in their internal affairs "unlike other influential nations". Though Waheed did not take names, his statement was seen as directed against India.

    Earlier this week, Maldivian defence minister Mohamed Nazim and his Chinese counterpart Liang Guanglie vowed to strengthen military ties during the former's Beijing visit.

    China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives? - TOI Mobile | The Times of India Mobile Site
     
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  3. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    It is in China's strategic vision to overwhelm the area with Chinese naval presence so as to, apart from signalling that indeed she has become a global superpower, as also to ensure that the trade routes by sea from the Gulf and Africa are free from interference.

    Diego Gracia is critical to the US for its military activities and surveillance over the Middle East and Asia as also for satellite link purposes. Therefore, there can be hardly a threat to the US in that area.

    It is interesting to note that Seychelles, Maldives et al where India had major presence and interests has given way to China.

    It is the lacklustre, rudderless drift of Indian foreign policy that has given China the edgeway.

    Take the case of Bangladesh or Sri Lanka. Mere giving financial aid will not do. One has to assist developing countries to build their infrastructure. By having projects that are visible to the people, it changes the mindset. Financial assistance only helps the corrupt politicians and is not touch the general mass.

    China builds infrastructure in foreign land they want to wean away. They are making the port in SL and are building the ship building facility in Bangladesh from which the first naval 'warship' will be built and it has given Bangladesh a new patriotic 'high' wherein they are already thinking of 'exporting' naval warships. These 'naval warships' are mere patrol boats with weapons, but it nevertheless is a great boost to the national ego of the Bangladesh.

    Therefore, given the approach of China and the approach of India, it is not surprising that China has understood how nations tick and their population's mindset.

    Hence, China is winning friends and influencing Nations!

    No prizes for guessing the obvious.
     
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  4. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    you discorved gravity law, every one know that . Very soon sl , nepal will give us a shock. but we will not change let us sleep
     
  5. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    I believe they are behind kicking out Indian firm from one of the largest oil storage facility in Sri Lanka too.
     
  6. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    Are their any tiny Islands in IOR near and around equator 90 to 50 degree L India can buy ?
     
  7. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    what we can do in our country . Every one is saying system is corrupt. Isaw ex cbi head was crying dont tne suprime court ask him the details . We are lossing every where . In every department officer are working as they are working for govt but they has u derstand they are working for nation not for govt . Govt is not nation and we have to change our mindset.china is doing good and we are talking good
     
  8. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    we dont have ball
     
  9. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    And we have two foreign ministers in last 7-8 years.

    The point is, is there any one listening ^ in India. Congress-I lead by Sonia Gandhi is the worst thing happened to India. She has made UPA politician concentrate more about herself and her prince, so most of the agencies. When Indians are debating quota for minorities in RAW, bureaucrats are busy polishing shoes of illiterate ministers, security is guarding gates of politician's homes then this is suppose to happen. I mean when we are bogged down internally like we have been all the time this is going to happen for sure.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
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  10. jalsa

    jalsa Regular Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    China has succeeded and in the meantime our Foreign policy failed miserably, there is no use in blaming China for it.
     
  11. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    The broader question here is if Indian State is ready to advocate & then defend interests of Private companies? We are not ready for that. Today you go on to intervene for GMR, tomorrow rest of the companies will come knocking door in cry for every help in foreign land. If you then deny them, they will cry in public for selective bias. Ideally, political parties should specifically declare donations & endorsements from private companies leading to whose interests they will work for. But we are not US/UK or PRC. And to be fair, GMR establishment in Maldives does not figure in strategic scheme of GOI.
     
  12. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    Nations do defend their private companies as well.

    Also it is to do with tone and method, they are doing it.

    1. Hate speech by Male radical parties.

    2. Chinese boat sniffing your missile launches and docking back to Sri Lankan ports.

    3. Deliberate Propaganda by Sri Lanka that we have pointed Ballistic missiles at them.

    4. Land allotted to your embassy handed over to China in Colombo.

    5. Duly noted ISI activities (radar installation) in Sri Lanka.

    Last but not least this particular news leaving no doubt to be raised on Chinese Involvement. I mean like they say ''Samajhdaar ko Ishara he kafi''. GoI is not going to blame China directly but controlled leaks like such are good enough to be believed.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
  13. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    Why not, If your companies are operating their borders then you can have better access to information on influx and out flux of human traffic. Then the point raised by Ray is explaining many other leverages we can benefit from.
     
  14. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    for heaven's sake at least - please DO THAT - i.e tag team with the usa to keep ..........
     
  15. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    No they wouldn't do that, because Indians love eating con China's sweet pills like this China wants India to keep US out of region - Times Of India.
     
  16. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    @Ray Sir,

    Maldives shows its not just about infrastructure. I mean GMR was making infrastructure. Maldives kicked them out. There is more to it than meets the eye.
     
    Last edited by a moderator: May 10, 2015
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  17. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    Agreed, response from Indian side is an imperative. But the question is how we do it ? By putting corporate proxies or by seeking more support from Maldive public against govt?

    AFAIK GOI has asked GMR to follow the legal route and so they are suing Maldive's Govt. (It won't result in anything though). And by technical terms at the end of the day, its Maldive Govt's internal business about whom they should allow in their country. We don't have enough carrots in our kitty compared to China.
     
  18. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    We do not need to be USA to treat these nations.

    Its better to be hated for good reasons than no reasons. And the good example is Pakistan i.e. liberation of Bangladesh. Other is LTTE, to keep USA out, why not LTTE again to keep China out.

    Maldives should be told who is the boss here. Carrot and Sticks is a legitimate tactic, absence of either one (because of sheer laziness) by our part is always going to haunt us back.

    If our RAW can not manipulate regimes then we are just a rubber stamp nation on ''Bhagwaan ke saharey".
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012
  19. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    There will be equal & opposite response from Chinese end if we try arm twist here and there are good chances further pushing away other neighbors along with Maldives.

    But surely RAW can be brought in to play vital part of information gathering on how PRC is handling its proxy missions. Decoding blueprint of PRC's strategy in aiding foreign missions & pattern of communication flow is the prize here.
     
  20. blank_quest

    blank_quest Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    What were these bureaucrats smoking?

    Govt is already lumping into the chaos of daily public high-voltage drama.

    This govt has no vision no planning and its riding high on the back of blind,egoistic and also some highly-able-but-helpless Politicians.
    The real work for Foreign Policy will happen only when some able-politicians take "interest" in this.

    Bureaucrats will do charms only when we have Leader and not just Politicians.

    Also there is number crunch going so deep that India will have a far less IFS compared to China withing few years. Whom to blame? ,
    These Politicians will take India into Hell. :facepalm: :hail: Gandhi Family. :tsk:
     
  21. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    Re: China behind scrapped GMR deal to extend footprint in Maldives and

    Your approach is too defensive.

    Chinese are too short legged in IOR.

    They are testing our waters, if you do not tell them who is the boss, their military planner will jump in after trade planners.

    I wouldn't give them a benefit of doubt without a good check. And there is no other other option to test their resolve without being aggressive. If they are here for business they will simply pack their bags from a unstable nation, if they are here for military objective [heck they are here for military objectives, we never interrupted their trade lanes rather guarded it for free, they know we wouldn't because of USA et al., why their is urgency for so called securing them religiously now (string of pearls)] then their is no holds bar for us. Our navy is more trigger happy than anyone else on this planet they just need a go from New Delhi in that case.
     
    Last edited: Dec 15, 2012

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