China and its fumbling in Asia Pacific

Ray

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China's View of South Asia and the Indian Ocean


Published on August 31, 2010 by Dean Cheng

The Indian Ocean is becoming increasingly important to China's economic and security interests. China appears to be pursuing what has been widely characterized as a "string of pearls" strategy of cultivating India's neighbors as friendly states, both to protect its economic and security interests and to balance a "rising India." With Chinese influence in the region growing, it is essential that the U.S. not fall behind in the Indian Ocean, but maintain a steady presence in the region, both to signal its resolve to stay engaged and to avoid the difficulties of reentering a region.
China's View of South Asia and the Indian Ocean
As the People's Republic of China (PRC) expands its global economic and security interests, one region of growing importance to Beijing will be the Indian Ocean area. Not only must a significant portion of China's oil imports transit this region, but one of China's enduring friends (Pakistan) and one of its long-time rivals (India) border this region, as well as China's sensitive Tibetan flank......

European colonialism ended Chinese and Indian isolation, both from each other and from the rest of the world, yet it affected the two major Asian powers very differently. India was conquered by the British and directly colonized. In the period of decolonization, the Indian Subcontinent was partitioned into Hindu-majority India and Muslim-majority East and West Pakistan (now Bangladesh and Pakistan, respectively).[1]

By contrast, although China retained nominal sovereignty, the Chinese view this period as the "Century of Humiliation." From 1840 to 1945, China lost control of its destiny. During this period, foreigners collected China's tariffs and taxes, were immune from Chinese law and prosecution, and ultimately were able to dictate China's fate. When the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) won the Chinese civil war, Mao Zedong made a point to say that China would now "stand up." For Mao and the rest of the CCP leadership, their victory marked the return of the ability of the Chinese to dictate their own future. This had two implications for Chinese views of South Asia.

The first implication is that Chinese territory is a unitary whole and inviolable. The "Century of Humiliation" saw foreign intrusions into China, the creation of concessions, and even the forcible removal of territory from Chinese control (e.g., Hong Kong and Taiwan). This would no longer be tolerated. In the South Asian context, from the perspective of the CCP leadership, Tibet, like Taiwan, is part of China, and any threat to Chinese control is wholly unacceptable.

The other implication is that China's borders have been unduly affected and influenced by foreign pressure and domination, especially through the application of "unequal treaties." Consequently, now that China is strong, it is Beijing that will determine whether it accepts the current borders or not. More to the point, from its perspective, China is under no obligation to accept borders that were demarcated by more powerful foreign parties.
See the Paragraphs on Chinese Relations with South Asian States.......

For the foreseeable future, Chinese strategic planners will need to pay increasing attention to China's Indian Ocean flank. In the short term, China is concerned about its growing dependence on the sea lanes of communications for sustaining China's economic growth. In 2010, for the first time, China imported more than 50 percent of its oil consumption. Chinese President Hu Jintao has already raised the issue of the Malacca Strait. There is little question that it is a key chokepoint on China's oil supply routes. Part of China's interest in developing alternative ports and pipelines, such as in Pakistan and Burma, would seem to be motivated by a desire to reduce the criticality of the Malacca Strait.

Even if China's oil lifeline did not have to transit the Strait of Malacca, it would nonetheless traverse significant portions of the Indian Ocean. The growth of the Indian navy means that Chinese economic development is potentially at the mercy of India, as well as the United States. The forging of Indian security links with Japan and the United States is therefore a source of concern.
The Recommendations for U.S. Policy are also worth a dekko, as is Maintaining a Strong U.S. Presence in the Region.
The Myitsone dam project was being developed jointly by Burma and China at the head of the Irrawaddy river, the confluence of the Mali and N'Mai rivers in Kachin state, in an area currently the scene of conflict between government forces and ethnic minority insurgents.

The vast majority of the electricity produced on the dam would benefit China, and the dam had served to inflame growing anti-Chinese sentiment in Burma, our correspondent says......

"The people [are] really happy and welcome the decision made by President Thein Sein because it wasn't only [Aung San] Suu Kyi, let me remind you of that.

"It's the population, the whole Burmese who feel they belong to the culture heritage of the Irrawaddy river. They welcome the news."....

BBC News - Burma dam: Work halted on divisive Myitsone project
Chinese mining company pulled out of what was to be Pakistan's largest foreign-investment deal because of security concerns, complicating Islamabad's effort to position its giant neighbor as an alternative to the U.S. as its main ally.


An official at China Kingho Group, one of China's largest private coal miners, said on Thursday it had backed out in August from a $19 billion deal in southern Sindh province due to concerns for its personnel after recent bombings in Pakistan's major cities.....
A Deal's Collapse Clouds Pakistan's China Alliance - WSJ.com
It is extraordinary that closest of allies of China are bucking the friendship when China alone has stood by them against all world opinion.

The issues of discontent in Africa is understandable and so is the problems in the South China Seas, but this is really unexplainable.

Is China losing her grip?

If so, why?

And yet, I believe that China is speedily attempting to link China with Afghanistan and some speculate a greater role of China to include taking over the vacuum cause by the US drawdown.

What exactly is China's gameplan when things are not going her way and that too in otherwise without doubt the closest friends of China.

Given the Xinjiang is a headache for China and the string of pearls an important strategic cog, with both Pakistan and Burma being obtuse, what unfettered harvest can China reap in these two countries and add another one to its kitty - Afghanistan?!

I might as well add that China is in the process of linking Bangladesh to Kunming via Myanmar by road and rail and building a deep sea port for Bangladesh.

What will be the strategic scenario in Asia Pacific?

May also see

http://council.smallwarsjournal.com/showthread.php?t=13649
 

Ray

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It would be dangerous to feel that the Chinese are fools.

This requires deep analysis since the Chinese are inscrutable and one does not know which way the cat shall jump!

One wonders what is China up to?

Arming herself to its teeth, acting belligerent with all and sundry, upsetting her closest allies and yet wants to exercise hegemonic aspirations in Asia and then conquer the world!

Odd, to say the least!
 

agentperry

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under indulgence by chinese is key problem. either they get involved too much like in case of say thai cambodia they side heavily with thai or cambodian which ever the find feasible enough, then surely it will earn them an enemy but it will also get them an ally, which wil side by them. china here prefer to stay neutral but seek business if possible, they offer weapon at through away cost and thus assumes that it will be enough to get hold of that nation. a country buying arm from a nation expect that the seller sides by them on intl platform but instead they see china having a neutral stand. the perception which develops here is that this nation was just having feast over my coffin, its an opportunist state so no long term coalition can be made.
this on chinese part is unjustifiable as they gave pakistan, NK and many other states arms and earned respect. they get confused why the hell same thing is not happening. then they offer business, making roads ie building infra and all... but again the inner greed of chinese ccp ie having all workers chinese, sourcing equipment and raw material from china develops an anti-china attitude among the locals which in turn force the govt to back track and china despite billions of dollars in pipeline and tall claims of friendship is empty handed.
 

Ray

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But why are they antagonising their closest allies and staunch partners in the string of pearls and their gateway to the Indian Ocean?

Without these gateways, if the Straits of Malacca is blocked, they will come up gasping for fresh air and oil!
 
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cir

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This Dean Cheng chap again. :)

Practicing Fanglungong must be like smoking opium for him.
 

Ray

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This Dean Cheng chap again. :)

Practicing Fanglungong must be like smoking opium for him.
Could you explain as to why Dean Chang is some sort of a persona non grata.

Is he an anti Communist China activist?

What exactly has he done to raise the Communist Chinese hackles?
 

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The Chinese are very adept players on the Diplomatic front. LEt us not read too much into such couple of instances. In both cases both the client states do not have the luxury of going to a third country. This could be part of a larger bargaining chip by the Chinese to get more concessions.
 

Ray

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The Chinese are very adept players on the Diplomatic front. LEt us not read too much into such couple of instances. In both cases both the client states do not have the luxury of going to a third country. This could be part of a larger bargaining chip by the Chinese to get more concessions.
One could read this
Pakistan rolls the dice, at what price? - The Times of India

China is Pakistan's all weather friend. However, as I have repeatedly mentioned, China has never come to Pakistan's assistance in times of national crisis as in the wars with India, even though China has been quick with meaningless pious platitudes that have done nothing good for Pakistan.

China has given military aid in the form of lethal toys, but she has been tight fisted when Pakistan was in dire necessity of hard cash. China knows its onions and does not part with cash since hard cash outflow will not power China's industry or economy while military toys and constructional work will generate Chinese growth and create jobs for the Chinese people.

Therefore, upsetting China wherein China upstakes from the construction projects will be quite a heavy price for beleaguered Pakistan to pay. If Pakistan cannot protect the Chinese workers and they are killed like flies as they were in Balochistan, then China will have a rethink over assistance to Pakistan, more so since China is furious that the Pakistan Govt is not doing adequately to rein in the terrorism being exported to Xinjiang.

The killing of Chinese in Pakistan and the export of Islamic terrorism from Pakistan into Xinjiang can have a serious repercussion in China leading to unrest and instability. China is the last country that tolerates instability and will not brook such nonsense merely to please an all weather friend. China and the Chinese Communist Party's existence is paramount to them over other issues!

China, it is interesting to note, has been cold to the Pakistani suggestion to make Gwadar a 'naval base' implying that it should be a cognizable cog in China's strategy of 'string of Pearls'. It is obvious that China does not want to raise hackles prematurely in the Indian Ocean.

In so far as hard cash assistance, it is solely dependant on the US and Saudi Arabia. Pakistan has already ruffled US feathers as enunciated by Adm Mike Mullen.

Hence, China does still play a major role in assisting Pakistan and if this relationship becomes uneasy, it will not be China which alone will be hurt, and instead Pakistan would be spiralling fast towards being a failed state. US, as it is, is contemplating action against Pakistan and is looking at the Northern route through CAR to Afghanistan seriously that will cease the leverage Pakistan has - the logistic route that Pakistan provides and which is repeatedly targeted by unhindered terrorist attacks.

Myanmar may be heavily dependant on China, but it is opening up its doors to its neighbours like Bangladesh and even India. Therefore, Myanmar is capable of playing one against the other to her own benefit.
 
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Illusive

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Pakistan just want to have a leverage on China, they are repeating the same mistake again by exporting terror, but at the moment thats all they can do, for their survival. Pakistan knows this that Xinjiang is China soft underbelly and they want to take full advantage of this weakness. Its a situation where China dont like to be in where they have to ditch pakistan but cannot because its the last thing they want is another nuclear power against them, also they can kiss their dream of having a transit to middle east goodbye.
String of pearls is just an insurance for this kind of scenario, but i wont count srilanka as a pearl. On the other hand India doesn't have any such problem with vietnam, and the presence of US just adds more balance to our side.
 

Ray

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As far as the Middle East is concerned, they look on Pakistan as a Muslim brother.

However, they treat Pakistanis and non Arab Muslims as usurpers and unmitigated dung.

Those who have been staying in the Middle East would bear witness and so would the posts on Pakistani forums.

I believe the Bangaldeshi Muslims are lowest in the pecking order and are assigned mostly menial jobs like sweepers. This I learnt from a Pakistani forum.
 

agentperry

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As far as the Middle East is concerned, they look on Pakistan as a Muslim brother.

However, they treat Pakistanis and non Arab Muslims as usurpers and unmitigated dung.

Those who have been staying in the Middle East would bear witness and so would the posts on Pakistani forums.

I believe the Bangaldeshi Muslims are lowest in the pecking order and are assigned mostly menial jobs like sweepers. This I learnt from a Pakistani forum.
1) they defame us for caste system... hypocrisy.
2) i wont be surprised to know that they call this bias imported from India as they already allege Indian cultural influence in pakland responsible for child marriage.
 

Ray

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1) they defame us for caste system... hypocrisy.
2) i wont be surprised to know that they call this bias imported from India as they already allege Indian cultural influence in pakland responsible for child marriage.
They blame it on the Hindu influence of the past, though they are the first to claim that they are not converts from Hinduism but pure Arab thoroughbreds!
 

agentperry

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They blame it on the Hindu influence of the past, though they are the first to claim that they are not converts from Hinduism but pure Arab thoroughbreds!
converted rajputs still claims to be rajput and show off their old bravery( actually cowardice as they surrendered to invaders and just to save life got converted, contrary to claim that they can die in the name of faith and bla bla)
 

Ray

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converted rajputs still claims to be rajput and show off their old bravery( actually cowardice as they surrendered to invaders and just to save life got converted, contrary to claim that they can die in the name of faith and bla bla)
Indeed!

I saw this claim trotted out with immense pride by some posters on the Pakistani forum.

They are real opportunists when the chips are down!

Sadly, the Bangladeshi could not fudged such claims, but then they suggested that they were but the direct descendant of their Prophet. They were all Syeds or Sheiks and ashrafis!

I presume that they were all El Cid.
 
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