chances of BJP to win in 2014

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Himanshu Pandey, Jun 14, 2013.

  1. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Regular Member

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    now when the divorce is inevitable.. lets put the debate on further areas.... the chances of BJP of coming in power.. what it need to do and how it can win enough seats and where?

    BJP's hope lies in UP, Uttrakhand, Bihar, Jharkhand, Himachal pradesh, Hariyana, Punjab, Delhi, MP, Chhatishgarh, Rajsthan, Maharastra, Gujrat, Assam, Karnatka, Telengana, Goa, Jammu, little bit from Odisa, Andhra pradesh, Tamilnadu, and may be one or 2 seats from NE.

    lets discuss about how much chances it had in which states and what are the hurdles there..

    the LS seats in various states are:

    Uttar Pradesh-----------------------80
    Uttarakhand-------------------------5
    Rajasthan--------------------------25
    Punjab-----------------------------13
    Maharashtra------------------------48
    Madhya Pradesh--------------------29
    Karnataka--------------------------28
    Jharkhand--------------------------14
    Himachal Pradesh-------------------4
    Haryana----------------------------10
    Gujarat-----------------------------26
    Goa--------------------------------2
    Delhi-------------------------------7
    Chhattisgarh-----------------------11
    Chandigarh------------------------1
    Bihar-----------------------------45
    Assam---------------------------14
    Arunachal Pradesh----------2
    total----------------------------364

    BJP is a alone or with its alliance party has a good vote base in all the above states

    presently the parties in National Democratic Alliance

    Bharatiya Janata Party
    Shiv Sena
    Shiromani Akali Dal
    Telangana Rashtra Samithi
    Asom Gana Parishad
    Haryana Janhit Congress

    party which leaving or left in recent times

    Jharkhand Mukti Morcha
    Janata Dal (United)

    party which can join the NDA if there is chance for win

    All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (AIDMK)( Tamil Nadu-------39)
    Telugu Desam Party (Andhra Pradesh--------------------------------42)
    Biju Janata Dal(Odisha----------------------------------------------21)
    All India Trinamool Congress(West Bengal----------------------------42)
    Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik)
    Mizo National Front (Mizoram----------------------------------------1)
    Sikkim Democratic Front (Sikkim-------------------------------------1)
    Gorkha Janmukti Morcha( working in West Bangal)
    Nagaland People's Front (Nagaland----------------------------------1)
    Uttarakhand Kranti Dal (working in Uttrakhand, a force for assembly elections and participated in them)
    Ladakh Union Territory Front(Ladakh--------------------------------1)
    Kamtapur Progressive Party(working in kamtapur, West bangal)

    total------------------------------------------------------------- 148

    so IMO.. BJP has a chance to cover 512 LS seats if all goes too good and according to script but as it is not the case.. so what will be the scenerio
     
    Last edited: Jun 14, 2013
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  3. TrueSpirit

    TrueSpirit Senior Member Senior Member

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    BJP's chance would always be low, as long as affluent urban voters like us, do not cast our ballot. This has been the bane of BJP since 2004 elections: it's voter base is too passive & politically indifferent for myriad reasons (that includes me). Let no excuse come in our way this time in LS elections 2014 (even if we are onsite).

    My choice is already clear: Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi elections & BJP all the way in LS elections.
     
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  4. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Things are so confused that it is to early to call!
     
  5. SLASH

    SLASH Senior Member Senior Member

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    If BJP can get between 200-210 seats with SS and Akali dal adding another 30 seats they would have a very good chance of forming a government. Jayalalita would happily give her support to the BJP.

    Communalism is a much smaller issue when parties form a government. Even ABV was termed communal in 1996 but again in 1999 all the regional parties gave him support. One way to woo the regional parties towards BJP would be by giving more autonomy to the states. Narendra Modi has been very vocal about the same. That is the only common ground between BJP and the regional parties. Their hatred towards the Congress rises from the fact the Congress at centre tries to interfere in state affairs.
     
  6. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Regular Member

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    and IMO BJP can achieve 200+ seats only by aggressive campaigning and effective/efficient booth management.. where it make sure all its voters go to vote.
     
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  7. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    It's high time we all people go and vote, I'm very happy to see in recent assembly elections that people came out and voted, massive nearly 65-70 % of voting is very good, in my constituency, I see people coming out from urban areas and due to urban votes, BJP candidate won a lost battle. I would love to see same happening in LS polls, hope election doesn't take place in summer, otherwise we urban votrrs won't come out from our AC room. :(
     
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  8. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Regular Member

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    yes most sacred duty of people of a democracy is to vote
     
  9. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    NO Chances for BJP
     
  10. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    full chance for bjp Look, I can do that,too.... :lol:
     
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  11. SHURIDH

    SHURIDH Senior Member Senior Member

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    Agp divource bjp.
    Agp fights alone assembly,panchayet election.

    Recently agp shakes hand with aiudf to from darrang and karimganj zilla parishad.

    Agp helps aiudf in an assembly seat by election in hailakandi.

    Mamta banerjee will never join nda.
    She won't want to lose in 2016.

    18 out of 42 loksabha seat has 30% minority voter.

    Bjp have to increase its vote share from 15% to 25% to win 25 seat in up.
     
  12. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The lack of governance, dithering in implementing policies, galloping inflation, dangerous current account deficit, slow down in the manufacturing sector, rudderless foreign policy prone to blackmail by all including Maldives, no defence readiness owing to lack of procurement of defence assets, lack of initiative and expertise of indigenous defence asset manufacturing, and poor production output of licenced assets, unending scams that are not investigated honestly, riddling constitutional and investigation agencies with politics are all what has disillusioned the people.

    The options for the voters are practically non existent since the third front cannot form a Govt as they have greater difference amongst themselves than any others.

    NDA is in turmoil and BJP alone cannot get past the post.

    Minority or Majority does not matter since both the majority and minority are fed up to the gills of promises and dreams that are sold glibly but remain frozen in only sloganeering and no more.

    Vadra is right - A Banana Republic of Mango People!
     
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  13. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Ripped down the middle
    - Divorce in the making, foretold by poster and poem


    Patna, June 14: Either the wind did it or some vandal. But intentional or unintended, man’s mischief or nature’s collateral, it’s a sight whose symbolism would grab even the blind.

    The first big Narendra Modi hoarding to be emblazoned at the BJP headquarters in Patna in the Nitish Kumar years stands ripped down the middle.....


    Just when and how the last rites will be consummated are probably only a matter of logistics and form. Tomorrow? The day after? In a week? Patna is a thick swirl of speculation, but the inevitability of the break is increasingly not part of any uncertainty.......

    To him, the penny-drop moment was not so much Modi’s naming as campaign committee boss; it was BJP president Rajnath Singh announcing in Goa that the party wanted to see Modi as the “bhaavi neta (future leader)” of the country.....


    “The Modi camp is unbothered about the survival of this alliance,” he said, “and those in the BJP that are making worried noises are either doing it for form or they do not matter at all.”

    That is a sense echoed by sections of the BJP that want the alliance to somehow survive but have lost hope. “We cannot wish Modi away any longer and Nitish will not tolerate the mention of him,” a BJP leader said this evening, almost wistful of tone. “We have no common ground left, it has all been claimed by Narendra Modi.”

    Ripped down the middle
     
  14. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds

    NEW DELHI: The UPA is likely to come a cropper in the next Lok Sabha elections with the Congress tally getting almost halved, but the NDA will gain relatively little from its primary rivals decline, according to an opinion poll released by Times Now on Tuesday.

    The poll, done by CVoter for the TV channel, suggests that the biggest gainers could be regional parties like the SP, Trinamool Congress, AIADMK and YSR Congress, leaving them and others like the BSP, BJD and Left in a position to determine who forms the next government.

    The poll projects the UPA in its current form to get just 128 seats, with the Congress winning only 113 compared to its 2009 tally of 206. The NDA is projected to win 184 seats, but that includes 19 seats for the Nitish Kumar-led JD(U) which seems most likely to walk out of the BJP-led alliance. If that is factored in, the NDA's tally would be closer to 160, since the BJP too would presumably win fewer seats in Bihar contesting on its own. In short, both the UPA and the NDA would be well short of the halfway mark of 272, but the saffron party would have the consolation of finishing as the single largest if the poll projections prove correct.

    Another important caveat is that the poll was conducted between January and March and therefore may not have fully captured the impact (either way) of the hype surrounding Narendra Modi's increasingly likely projection as the BJP's prime ministerial candidate.

    According to the poll, the SP will win 35 seats, Trinamool and AIADMK 27 each, Left and BSP 26 each, JD(U) 19, BJD 13 and the Jagan Reddy-led YSR Congress 12. These parties with almost 160 seats between them may well hold the key to government formation in that scenario.

    For the Congress, the good news from the poll is that it is likely to gain significantly in Karnataka, winning 18 of the 28 seats compared to the six it won last time. But this gain could be more than offset by massive declines in Andhra Pradesh (8 compared to 33), Uttar Pradesh (6 against 21) and Rajasthan (8 versus 20) and minor losses elsewhere including in Maharashtra.

    For the BJP, the gains and losses are projected to be much more modest in most states, except in Karnataka, where the party is estimated to get 7 seats against the 19 it won last time and in Rajasthan, where its tally is predicted to rise from 4 in 2009 to 17 in the next Lok Sabha. In Delhi, a 7-0 verdict for the Congress four years ago is projected to become a 6-1 win for the BJP this time.

    [​IMG]

    2014 Lok Sabha polls: Big losses to UPA, no gain for NDA, survey finds - Times Of India
     
  15. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    SP is no way going to get 35 seats . If seat projection are base on number of assembly seats won . then congrees should not have won 21 seats in last lok sabha election
     
  16. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    bjp has to think for bjp not for nda

    first gain the maximum Numbers seat in election then lets the other party come and join them
     
  17. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    It is a fact that there is no ideology that drives the grabbing of a piece of the pie to rule the Delhi Sultanate!

    The only ideology is OPPORTUNISM!
     
  18. arya

    arya Senior Member Senior Member

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    sir then pls tell me what you want or tell me your want matter to the 1274040380 is the current indian

    totoal 1274040380 is chose the next pm
     
  19. VIP

    VIP Ultra Nationalist Senior Member

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    89 to others ?? Who are those ?? Is this poll suggesting that independents will win big chunk of pie ?? What load of crap..
     
  20. natarajan

    natarajan Senior Member Senior Member

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    Not an easy task unless they start working on it
     
  21. Blackwater

    Blackwater Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    save this font for next year...dont run after that.
     

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