Challenging India's Demographic Advantage, China's new Policy

Discussion in 'China' started by roma, Nov 15, 2013.

  1. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    BBC News - China reforms: One-child policy to be relaxed

    China is to relax its policy of restricting most couples to have only a single child, state media say.

    In future, families will be allowed two children if one parent is an only child, says the Xinhua news agency.

    The traditional preference for boys has also created a gender imbalance as some couples opt for sex-selective abortions.

    By the end of the decade, demographers say China will have 24 million "leftover men" who, because of China's gender imbalance, will not be able to find a wife.

    Most of the elderly in China are still cared for by relatives, and only children from single-child parents face what is known as the 4-2-1 phenomenon.

    When the child reaches working age, he or she could have to care for two parents and four grandparents in retirement.
     
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  3. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    madam @roma why did u alter the subject? th original title isnt targeting India at all (the earth isnt orbiting around India). see ya in 2030 when India is forecast to take over the top spot with all "demo. advantages" LOL

    Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
     
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  4. roma

    roma NRI in Europe Senior Member

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    world isnt india-centric , but this forum is ! LOL, heheheheh
    btw look at times of india

    the (few) comments there already shared my viewpoint
    we may have to meet at little later than 2030 in this case !:rolleyes:

    btw kudos to china for being able to fine tune their system when necessary,
    honestly, - well done !
    they had long ago told the world that they might relax this policy in time

    you can consistently see me preferring the china system
    where you have a plenipotentiary committee (i hope that's right)
    with the best brains - brainstorming what's best for the nation
    hope some day india can do something similar ! :thumb:

    my only gripe with china is your unwillingness to be a friend
    especially regarding border issues
    and using packland against us
    how can anyone be expected to tolerate that ?
     
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  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    I posted an article in one of the threads, which indicates that it will take a minimum of 15 years before China can change the adverse situation caused by this One Child Policy.
     
  6. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    The Chinese Communist Party should end the one-child policy — for its own sake If ethical concerns won't force change, self-survival will

    After more than 30 years, China will "fine tune" its one-child policy, writes San Juan at China Daily. Details haven't been released yet, but it's clear the government is considering ways to relax the restriction. That might be a wise idea: If the Chinese Communist Party wants to maintain economic growth and maintain its hold on power, an overhaul of the policy is a clear necessity.

    Since the one-child policy was enacted, China has reduced the birth rate by about 400 million, a staggering decrease. Ethical qualms aside (and that's a huge aside), the government's policy of limiting births certainly played a role in allowing the country's economy to flourish while lowering the strain on national resources.

    However, the policy has also led to some corollary repercussions that have the potential to drag down the economy. Due to the one-child policy, China has a whole lot of old people. That comes with a variety of negative effects, a major one being your workers start aging out without a young, healthy population to replace them.

    Furthermore, once that "young and vibrant labor force transitions from contributing to China's economy," it "needs to draw resources out of the country's thinly supported pension and health care systems," writes Benjamin Shobert at CNBC. A growing elderly population without strong safety nets could be a financial and social disaster.

    "Potential turmoil could spread across the country if families begin to feel all their hard work has not translated into better long-term care for elderly," Shobert adds.

    But that instability is nothing compared to the upheaval that could be unleashed by China's angry bachelors. An obvious, though illegal, effect of the one-child policy is that couples are more likely to abort female babies, creating a huge gender imbalance. In 2006, there were 120 males to 100 females. As these babies have grown into adulthood and hit the marrying age, there's been an ironic reversal; women are now the preferred sex and are in high, high demand.

    As with any high-demand item, the wealthy have the upper hand. The Titanic romance of Rose eschewing her rich fiancé for the poor, exciting, and handsome Jack doesn't hold a candle in China. As one female contestant on a Chinese dating show said, it's better to "cry in a BMW than laugh on the backseat of a bicycle." Ahh, romance.

    As a result, there are many single and poor men who are being rejected by women and society at large. Unsurprisingly, they "feel aimless, angry, and alone," writes Jessica Levine at The Atlantic. "Fueled by sexual frustration, marginalized by neighbors, these islanded bachelors are increasingly likely to drink, fight, gamble, and frequent prostitutes."

    Oh, and potentially rebel against the government. In the 19th century, when males outnumbered females 129 to 100 in the country's northern region, "roving young men organized themselves into bandit gangs, built forts, and came to rule an area of some six million people," wrote Martin Walker in Foreign Policy in 2006. Basically, the horsing around of yesteryear could take on more violent forms in maturity.

    Plus, there are a bunch of them. We aren't talking about a few lonely hearts. Their total population is estimated at 40 million to 50 million. Even in a country the size of China, a group that large — let alone young and sexually and politically frustrated — could cause some major damage.

    There's a good chance they wouldn't be alone. The selective enforcement of the one-child policy elicits anger among the majority of Chinese who fall outside of the wealthy and elite. If you have enough money to pay the fine or have a baby overseas with a foreign passport, you're free to violate the one-child policy. Unfortunately, this only exacerbates growing class tensions, which is exactly what the Chinese government doesn't want to happen.

    The fact that the one-child policy is a glaring human rights violation never seemed to bother the Chinese government all that much. But now that it's increasingly clear that the restriction is possibly steering the country towards economic hardships and major social upheaval, the CCP may finally get with the program.
    The Chinese Communist Party should end the one-child policy — for its own sake - The Week

    *****************************************

    The ethical issues may not appeal in China, but the social issue and the impact on the labour force and China's economy thereof is indeed a serious matter for China to reconsider.

    They are already studying the same and formulating some stop gap arrangements or so it is said.
     
  7. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    "The main reason why we expect growth to slow over the coming decades is not that the labor force will soon start to shrink but that the pace of productivity growth is likely to slow, as the room for catch-up with richer economies diminishes," the economists said.

    China policymakers face what is perhaps a more pressing problem at the other end of the age spectrum.

    China currently has more than 185 million citizens over the age of 60. The elderly now account for around 12% of China's population, a figure that is predicted to swell to 34% by 2050.

    According to a recent study, large numbers of the elderly are living before the poverty line and suffering from physical problems or depression. With millions more Chinese scheduled to leave the workforce in the near future, social services could become even more strained as the still-developing country seeks to reform its economy.

    The economics of China's one-child policy - Economy

    ********************************

    These are western views.

    What are the comments from the Chinese newspapers?
     
  8. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    According to @amoy in another thread the Chinese, because of lifestyle preferences will not want to have more than one child. But the party that enforced one child can also enforce more than one child no?

    Amazing that four or five Chinese on DFI can tell us the likes, dislikes, wants and aspirations of 1.3 billion Chinese and those likes and aspirations can be controlled by the party.

    I wonder what will happen to the abortion clinics? They were a money making enterprise.
     
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  9. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Charming. The party appealed to patriotic Chinese to stop having babies and they just stopped. Amazing!!

    In other news...
    Almost 330 million abortions in China - data | News24
     
  10. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Now Chinis will be forced to produce more. If not then penalty, reeducation, may be more sex education on how to do IT right to produce more :troll: :D :D
     
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  11. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    Chinese will find their wives in Pakistan.
     
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  12. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    They go to Vietnam to buy brides.

    Chinese Man Spends 35K For ‘Obedient’ Vietnamese Wife

    Chinese Man Spends 35K For ‘Obedient’ Vietnamese Wife – chinaSMACK



    Crackdown on Vietnamese bride purchases

    [​IMG]
    Vietnamese brides have become popular among low-income Chinese young men as Vietnamese women are perceived as being less materialistic and more obedient than Chinese wives.

    The Ministry of Public Security said a website is suspected of breaking the law for offering blind dates with Vietnamese women, and it will crack down on agencies that broker marriages between Chinese and foreigners.

    55tuan.com offered a lottery in which winners could travel to Vietnam for a blind date. It promised to refund the winner's round-trip ticket if he succeeded in marrying a Vietnamese woman. More than 20,000 men signed up for the travel promotion event.
    Crackdown on Vietnamese bride purchases- China.org.cn



    More men say 'I do' to mail-order Vietnamese women

    Vietnam's mail-order bride business is booming, fueled by surging demand from Chinese men who have given up hope of finding a compatriot wife and are lured by the prospect of a bargain bride bought in a group purchase. Though international marriage agencies are officially illegal, loopholes in China have allowed the industry to flourish and prompted calls from experts to regulate such businesses so they can be more closely supervised.

    For a group purchase price of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan ($4,727-$6,303), an attractive Vietnamese bride aged between 18 and 25 can be "bought" from a marriage agency based in Yunnan Province, which regularly posts online advertisements.
    More men say 'I do' to mail-order Vietnamese women - People's Daily Online
     
  13. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    They go to Vietnam to buy brides.

    Chinese Man Spends 35K For ‘Obedient’ Vietnamese Wife
    Chinese Man Spends 35K For ‘Obedient’ Vietnamese Wife – chinaSMACK



    Crackdown on Vietnamese bride purchases
    [​IMG]
    Vietnamese brides have become popular among low-income Chinese young men as Vietnamese women are perceived as being less materialistic and more obedient than Chinese wives.

    The Ministry of Public Security said a website is suspected of breaking the law for offering blind dates with Vietnamese women, and it will crack down on agencies that broker marriages between Chinese and foreigners.

    55tuan.com offered a lottery in which winners could travel to Vietnam for a blind date. It promised to refund the winner's round-trip ticket if he succeeded in marrying a Vietnamese woman. More than 20,000 men signed up for the travel promotion event.
    Crackdown on Vietnamese bride purchases- China.org.cn



    More men say 'I do' to mail-order Vietnamese women
    Vietnam's mail-order bride business is booming, fueled by surging demand from Chinese men who have given up hope of finding a compatriot wife and are lured by the prospect of a bargain bride bought in a group purchase. Though international marriage agencies are officially illegal, loopholes in China have allowed the industry to flourish and prompted calls from experts to regulate such businesses so they can be more closely supervised.

    For a group purchase price of 30,000 to 40,000 yuan ($4,727-$6,303), an attractive Vietnamese bride aged between 18 and 25 can be "bought" from a marriage agency based in Yunnan Province, which regularly posts online advertisements.
    More men say 'I do' to mail-order Vietnamese women - People's Daily Online
     
  14. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    sensitive indians are having a hallucination that China is targetting India by abolishing the one China policy.

    severe psychological trauma caused by 1962 conflict is still lingering in the minds of Indians, shaping their way of thinking and acting in the decades to come.

    Sent from my HUAWEI T8951 using Tapatalk 2
     
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  15. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    A hallucination is a fact, not an error; what is erroneous is a judgement based upon it.

    Thank you for your judgement.

    We respectfully decline the invitation to join your hallucination.
     
  16. angeldude13

    angeldude13 Lestat De Lioncourt Senior Member

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    Guess somebody is [email protected] from the nanking massacre.
     
  17. kseeker

    kseeker Retired

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  18. bennedose

    bennedose Senior Member Senior Member

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    China's new policy - so far only an announcement about allowing more than one child per couple is an interesting admission that the old policy was wrong and unsustainable. Coercion in one area is always justified as leading to benefits in some other area, so coercion about one child was applied to allow prosperity to catch up with a vast poor population.

    One of the side effects of more children is less money to go around, and less time as well. Single child or no child families will have more money than two child (or bigger) families. This will be noticeable among more wealthy people. Among the less wealthy, who have little money to go round in the first place, the difference between two and more children is less noticeable - they cannot afford so many things anyway. That is why population bulges occur around less wealthy people. In the old days more children meant more hands to work and earn. In the new "More than one child" China the prospect of becoming poorer by having more children will likely be reversed by stopping punishment for those who have a second child and by giving government benefits. Once a government starts giving benefits for something like this - it becomes attractive to do things to claim benefit - so there will be more families claiming benefit. in the long term China will become like any other free country with internal imbalances in wealth while people milk the socialist system. The only thing that will try to remain untouched will be the single communist party.

    Communism claims to equalize and if they do not equalize then they have failed - China's communism will bow out. But a unitary party that seeks to unify also has military power for forced internal cohesion. If the party bows out then things may start looking different in Tibet and Xinjiang - who are now held captive by a draconian communist regime. Of course the Han have always had an eye on Tibet. Even as Mao was fighting Chiang Kai Shek and his Nationalist Chinese forces, they only idea that both the communists and Nationalists Chinese shared in common was that Tibet should be part of China. Charming. Only the Tibetans did not agree.

    let's see how Chinas new freedoms pan out..
     
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  19. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    A very logical insight.
     
  20. nimo_cn

    nimo_cn Senior Member Senior Member

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    no one expected the old policy to be permanently enforced, not even CCP who established that policy.

    therefore, abolishing the policy doesnt mean an admission of mistake. it only means that the policy has fulfilled its mission, now it's time too let it go.

    Sent from my HUAWEI T8951 using Tapatalk 2
     
  21. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    @bennedose 's efforts in the tedious write-up is laudable. do u know Chinese birth control was copycatted from Indira Gandhi's forced sterilization? ? if u didnt, pls brush up your knowledge of Indian history.

    Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
     
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