Ceding Aksai Chin not an option for India

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Yusuf, May 20, 2013.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    MUST READ by former ambassador Stobdan

    Ceding Aksai Chin not an option for India
    The Chinese may be making a smart move to let India, in the first step, forego its claim over 38,000 sq km (Aksai-Chin), thereby de-linking Ladakh or J&K sector from the overall boundary dispute.
    By P Stobdan

    CHINA’S “urgency” to “redouble” efforts to push for the boundary settlement is quite perplexing. It explains the motive behind the recent 19 km intrusion in Depsang. Why did China play such a trick? Nothing is clear whether Premier Li Keqiang, during his visit, will push for a boundary settlement only in the Ladakh sector or will he seek to resolve the entire boundary dispute?

    The five tents that comprised the Chinese incursion across the LAC in Ladakh.

    India may believe this would be limited to exchanging maps, clarifying the Line of Actual Control (LAC) and verifying troop positions. But this is not what the Chinese may have in their minds. They may push for a formal settlement along the LAC in Ladakh, where they have nothing to lose. And, to India’s disappointment, it may not involve swapping India’s claims over Aksai Chin for China’s claims over Arunachal Pradesh, which many in India consider a pragmatic thing to accept.

    The Chinese may be making a smart move to let India, in the first step, forego its claim over 38,000 sq km (Aksai-Chin), thereby de-link Ladakh or J&K sector from the overall boundary dispute. But, should that happen, India, by implication, will have to give up not only Aksai Chin, but also cede its notional claim over the 5,047 sq km (Skyasgam valley) and the Menser Enclave (five villages) near the Mansarowar lake.

    Chinese checkers

    The “urgency” also explains China’s motivations linked to its domestic security agenda. Some of the Chinese border negotiation tactics displayed against three Central Asian states should be instructive.

    Fearing its sensitive Xinjiang region becoming an object of external power play, Beijing since 1991 has applied all instruments of its power to quell the Uyghur unrest and simultaneously resolved borders with Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan. The Chinese scheme blended ‘incentives with coercion’ — a varied mix of diplomacy, political support, economic allurement and military aid. The strategy was implemented within the crafty policy framework of domestic economic growth and peaceful periphery. The strategy finally worked in China’s favour — acquiring heft and influence.

    China gave concession to counterparts without actually losing an inch of territory. Beijing settled for a third of territories it claimed from Kazakhstan. Yet the Kazakhs had to admit they had gained. In addition to what it had lost, the Kazakh President had to denounce Uyghur separatism and curb anti-China activities. In a similar pattern, Kyrgyzstan had to cede 1,20,000 hectares in a dubious exchange for Chinese assistance. Tajikistan being the last was made to surrender 1,100 square miles in 2010. Here, China claimed some 28,000 sq km, but settled for 3.5 percent of it. The Tajiks had to cede land and yet made to feel the victor.

    In essence, China ultimately gained a bit of land, nixed the Uyghur issue, and pushed its economic agenda by making Xinjiang a pivotal link to the Eurasian markets. The success gave birth to a self-serving SCO, lauded as an exemplary multilateral cooperation mechanism, essentially meant to blunt any US-led Asian alliance in Eurasia.

    But, its growing trade ties with Asian neighbors haven’t stopped China’s increasing appetite for territorial expansion. Land and demographic encouragement continues in Russia’s Far East. Weaker states are induced to let out agriculture and forest land to Chinese farmers. The borders and rivers are still being altered to meet China’s new interests. A view popular now is that the early surrender to China was a mistake, which is bouncing back with huge implications. China’s tactics are fuelling mounting tensions and resentments across Asia.

    Internal agenda

    What lessons do they hold for India? How is the boundary issue with India linked to China’s internal agenda? The above Chinese strategy should provide enough clues about what China wants from India.

    Firstly, China’s new move can’t be unrelated to China’s internal agenda, possibly with a future trajectory in Tibet. In essence, Beijing’s idea is to ward off threat at the periphery to achieve internal stability. Beijing, though, doubts India would ever play the Tibet card. But, it does suspect the US-Japan-India coalescing to encircle and subvert China internally. Therefore, a stronger assertion may be a euphemism for deterring India plus others harming China’s core interests. Of course, China retains the option to offset the three by fronting Iran, North Korea and Pakistan.

    We don’t know whether any big-ticket deals are slated for Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit, but he is likely to convey three essential points: (a) intends to settle the boundary dispute on its terms, (b) intends to solve the Tibet problem internally; wants no Indian interference in the post-Dalai developments, and (c) to point out that a US-led Asia pivot process should not be encouraged.

    Secondly, on the boundary issue, China still maintains Arunachal is ‘South Tibet’ and Tibet is incomplete without Arunachal. Remember, the Chinese are masters of the art of denial and deception. Once India falls for Chinese magnanimous position over Aksai Chin, Beijing will then shift the focus to Arunachal. where it hopes to gain from India. They would emphatically convey that India is occupying 90,000 sq km of Chinese territory, but Tawang is non-negotiable in a final settlement of the border issue. Such a ‘minimal demand’ had been aired by Beijing at an unofficial level through Chinese academics. This ‘minimum demand’ tactic was also applied with Central Asian states.

    China’s recent overt and overbearing postures are not only not reassuring but also disturbing. India should tread carefully on China policy. In any case, ceding Aksai Chin would fundamentally alter the status of J&K. By implication, India would have to forget about PoK as well. Is there a clear Indian strategy?

    http://www.tribuneindia.com/2013/20130519/pers.htm#3
     
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  3. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Ceding Aksai Chin is not an option? That's it?

    Well, I think the first thing is to significantly boost the armed forces, and prepare for a war. India has to take Aksai Chin back by force. PRC ain't gonna had it over to us on a platter - is that clear to us yet?

    I am tired of all these verbal declarations. It's time to start preparing, so that 10 years from now, we are really ready for a massive showdown!
     
  4. arnabmit

    arnabmit Homo Communis Indus Senior Member

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    Dada, what's the use in banging our heads? In India, Election funds will always overshadow FOL funds & Scams will always overshadow defence acquisition.

    Nothing will change ever. Get ready for UPAIII, give up AC & AP... we the mango people would be better poised to survive if we start learning Mandarin & Cantonese.

    I feel sorry for our armed forces who have been reduced to the stature of elephant tusks by the nincompoops at the center. No logical reason, but still, I kinda got pissed at Bikram Singh's huge grin and flourish of salute to Premier Li today, standing next to Sell-Man...

     
    Last edited: May 20, 2013
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  5. JBH22

    JBH22 Senior Member Senior Member

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    The pace at which the government is considering "ceding" to the demands of Pakistan (Siachen Glacier), China (Aksai Chin-forego claims) its just mind boggling denying the very existence of India. But then I would guess that many of the pseudo sickular in CONgress believe that present India is just the creation of British
     
  6. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Escalating to a war is unlikely. What's needed is to maintain "Cold Peace" like I repeated.

    Apart from arm race, increasing clout in the subcontinent is also imperative like in playing GO. The next battlefield shall be Afghanistan IMO for "eyes" and "liberty".

    [​IMG]
     
  7. CCTV

    CCTV Regular Member

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    Take AC back by force? When?
     
  8. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    I think we have to start with illegal occupation of Tibet by China first and then Aksai Chin.
     
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  9. CCTV

    CCTV Regular Member

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    Your PM should talk it loud.
     
  10. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    No need for that as citizen i can do it, you wont understand because you dont have that privileged. BTW having Tibet Govt in Exile means that we have not withdrawn support to them. Here told by our successive Govt.

    [​IMG]
     
  11. CCTV

    CCTV Regular Member

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    Well, you know what is our answer to that.
     
  12. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    yeah yeah what to expect from Chinese.
     
  13. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    thank you for admitting it.

    now there is no point in crying about any of our retaliation, basically any actions we took against india after the 1950's. including support for pakistan and other such contentious issues.

    you supported these guys, we supported others against you. since you started it first, what did you expect us to do.
     
  14. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    IIt might be fine for India to cede Aksai Chin so as to have 'peace at all costs'.

    But if you are a Ladakhi, it would appear as traumatic as it was to the Assamese when Nehru stated during 1962, 'My hearts bleeds for Assam'.

    Ladakh dur ast[/I and so the tremors are not felt by those in Delhi who chalks our destiny.

    Yet, to the Ladakhis, it is as good as kissing them goodbye.

    Aksai Chin is a part of Ladakh, if one goes through history.

    Further, one must have some Strategic Vision (China has it and so it wants a quick solution in China's favour). If India has any strategic vision, it will realise that China's belligerent attitude is not one that has been brought out of a hat. It is a long term salami tactics that they have adopted to enlarge China at every border and sea to pursue her hegemonic mindset, and in the final analysis, word's sole superpower calling the shots.

    Therefore, it is necessary to keep the access route to Tibet and Xinjiang open so that China is also kept on the backfoot. India may not actively participate, but then there are other international players who are more concerned about China's 'Peaceful Rise' than India.
     
  15. CCTV

    CCTV Regular Member

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    Well, there are two more options

    1. Occupy whole subcontinent.
    Pro. Gain resource from the land
    Con. Time, money wasting.

    2. Nuke India
    Pro. Time saving
    Con. That area become waste land.


    1 is what we will do after we gain west pacific.
    2 is what we will do if India try to do something before we get west pacific.
     
  16. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    He is so soft and polite that he can hardly be heard!

    Speak softly, but carry a big stick.

    The big stick should be in the making!
     
  17. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    You must.

    What's holding you back?
     
  18. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    Can you elaborate on your response ?
     
  19. CCTV

    CCTV Regular Member

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    Give some boom boom to Pakistan.
     
  20. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    You have to vacate from your illigal occupation on Tibet... Rescent incidents shows that you are very sensitive / panic mode in TIBET... people there hates you people... Take it and tell your country men...

    The problem here is that first you have to defeat India comprehensively... that is beyond your capability...

    BTW we will send you flowers on our Agni V / VI to your various cities...

    To summarize you will never be able to go out of South Chiba Sea... First learn to fight with Philipines & Vietnam [no dis respect meant to these great countries] then dream of going out of SCS...
     
    Last edited: May 20, 2013
  21. bose

    bose Senior Member Senior Member

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    You have already done it before ... But Pakistan is a lost case Now !! struggling to save its very existence... One fine morning Uncle SAM will come and confiscate all those useless boom boom...

    BTW what will happen of India gives some Boom Boom to Vietnam & Philipenes ?? They start disgracing you a big bully in front of whole world ?? That will be hurting...
     
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