Can the Rise of 'New' Turkey Lead to a 'New' Era in India-Turkey Relations?

[ejazr]

Paper by a turkish author who is working with the think tank IDSA
Mehmet Ozkan
Turkey and India have undergone an immense social, political and economic transformation since the end of the Cold War. This has also been the case when it comes to their foreign policies. However, Turkey's truly multidimensional foreign policy came into existence in 2002. Since then Turkey has been actively re-defining its foreign policy preferences in Africa, the Middle East and Asia. Turkey's Asia policy is no longer based on Pakistan as it was a decade ago. 'New' Turkey is deeply interested in developing stronger relations with China, India and other rising Asian powers as part of the diversification of its economy and foreign policy. Turkey-India relations have a huge potential to develop and benefit both sides in coming years as relations at social, political and economic levels are already flourishing. The biggest challenges are, however, to overcome the lack of knowledge about each side and the lack of global dynamics in Turkey-India relations. Both Turkey and India are rising powers but they still cooperate at the global level in a very limited way.

Full report here
http://www.idsa.in/system/files/IB_IndiaTurkeyRelations.pdf

Some interesting parts

Turkey and India: Looking Beyond Cyprus and Pakistan?
History is the mirror of the future. A strong historical connection between India and
Turkey exists dating back to the medieval era and fostered with the late 19th and 20th
century interaction between the two. The help of Indians in the Independence War of
Turkey in the 1920s is still one of the most recalled one in Turkish memory. Indeed, the
original finance for the biggest bank of Turkey, Turkiye Is Bankasi, came from India.
However, Turkey and India had different preferences during the Cold War, one sided
with the West and the other led the non-alignment movement. Since the establishment of
diplomatic relations between India and Turkey in 1948, political and bilateral relations
have been usually characterized by warmth and cordiality.9 However, now with the
leverage of Cold War gone, a new definition of bilateral and global political cooperation
is needed both at regional and international levels between Turkey and India.
A general picture indicates that Turkey has looked at India through the prism of Pakistan,
and India has done so through Cyprus and strong Turkey-Pakistan relations. At a
minimum, such conceptions are now outdated to examine the new existing developments
between the two, because political, economic and societal relations have undergone a
deep transformation.
At the political level, Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan's visit in November
2008 and the February 2010 visit of President of the Republic of Turkey, Abdullah Gul to
India with a huge delegation have emphasised Turkey's interest in India. The Indian
response has been mild so far mostly due to Turkey's approach to Pakistan. It is clear that
the new Turkey is no longer interested in formulating its Asian policy based on Pakistan
as it was a decade ago, therefore "the Pakistan factor today does not exist as an overriding determinant in Turkey's South Asian policies."10 Turkish officials are worried about
the future of Pakistan as a possible failed state as much as India does. Turkey has softened
its pro-Pakistani approach on the Kashmir issue realizing that it is important to build up
a coherent and comprehensive relationship with India and develop a holistic Asian policy.
The fact is that New Delhi and Ankara have drawn closer even as Turkey's traditionally
good ties with Pakistan have unravelled following the latter's support to the Taliban and
its indulgence of Islamist radicals who destabilize Central Asia. Turkey has since reversed
its support to Pakistan's position on Kashmir, moving from a call for a plebiscite under
UN supervision to stressing the importance of India-Pakistan bilateral talks to resolve the
issue, which is by and large closer to India's position.11 On terrorism and security issues,
the post-9/11 era marked the beginning of a changing security environment for Turkey
and India. They have begun to move closer on these issues and started to cooperate and
take various steps towards a more substantive partnership.12 Today, the Turkish
understanding is closer to the Indian approach in opposing all kinds of terrorism without
any reference to 'root cause'.
Despite these positive developments at the political level, there have also been some
tensions. For example, after the trilateral meeting of Turkey, Afghanistan and Pakistan in
Istanbul in January 2010, India has lodged a protest with Turkey at not being invited to a
conference of Afghanistan's immediate neighbours. It was clear that Turkey did not invite
India because of objection from Pakistan. Although this was a little incident in damaging
Turkey-India relations, it also showed that Turkey should go and see beyond Pakistan in
its South Asian policy. Pakistan as the closest ally of Turkey in the region may bring
advantages but may also jeopardize its newly emerging relations with countries in Asia
like India.13 Toward that direction, Turkey has indeed expressed its regret at not inviting
India for the conference on Afghanistan in Istanbul, but added that New Delhi's relations
with Islamabad should not come in the way of the expanding bilateral relations between
the two countries in the near future.

During the visit of President Gul to India in February 2010, two joint declarations were
also issued: the Joint Declaration on Scientific and Technological Cooperation and Joint
Declaration on Terrorism. It has been agreed to study the possibilities of working together
in mutually identified projects in areas such as telecommunications, computerization,
information technology, space research, bio-technology and environmental technology
and convene a joint workshop in 2010. New Delhi considers the joint declaration on
terrorism a breakthrough because in it Ankara has agreed to "recognise the need" for the
conclusion of the India-initiated Comprehensive Convention on International Terrorism
(CCIT).17
According to the Investment Support and Promotion Agency of Turkey, three direct
investment agreements were also signed by Turkish and Indian entrepreneurs during
Turkish President Abdullah Gul's formal visit to India. Officials say that these agreements
would bring Turkey direct investments of nearly 150 million USD, providing employment
opportunities for 200 people. They also added that Indian companies dealing in ship
construction and renewable energy had expressed interest to invest in Turkey.

What Future for India-Turkey Relations?
In global politics, quantitative indicators do not always tell the whole story. They only
capture a static picture of a moment in time, rather than catching fast moving
developments. In total, there are only 250 Turks living in India, which does not even
require Turkey to open an embassy if seen from a quantitative perspective. However,
Turkey and India has much more in common, discovered and undiscovered, to share and
to work on at the international and regional levels. Time has come for Turkey and India
to discover each other and understand their changing and unchanging elements.
Just to give one example, Turkey and India are located in very different environments
but their approach to the role of religion in domestic politics is one alternative to the
'totalitarian' French-way of secularism. Turkey and India tend to separate state, religion
and politics from each other to articulate a new secularism. In traditional practice, state
and politics are seen as almost complimentary and thus forced to disconnect religion and
politics from each other. Both the experiences of Turkey and India now indicate that state
and religion can be separated indicating state neutrality in religious affairs, but it is
impossible to separate religion from politics. What we see today in Turkey and India is a
deep struggle to articulate such a new approach of secularism, learnt by hard experience.19
However, there are two major obstacles in taking Turkish-Indian relations forward. The
most persistent issue is the lack of information about each other. The problem is deepseated
and requires time for an efficacious resolution. However, three strategies could be
implemented: (a) students' exchange programme would bridge the societal and
informational gap; (b) more frequent exchange of academics and researchers between
universities and interaction; (c) ensuring cooperation between Indian and Turkish thinkthanks
and organizing joint conferences and publications on Turkish and Indian sociopolitical
issues would create awareness on both sides.
Second, is the lack of global dynamics in Turkey-India relations. Both Turkey and India
are rising powers but they only cooperate at the global level in a limited way such as in
the G-20. A Turkish interest to develop close relations, and if possible participating in
inter-continental groupings like the India-Brazil-South Africa Dialogue Forum may be
the best way to link Turkey-India relations at the global level. This linkage could expand
the horizon between Turkey and India by adding an international dimension. Considering
the Turkey-Brazil nuclear deal with Iran in May 2010, similar co-operation between Turkey
and India should not be seen outside of reach.
In short, what will define the future of Turkey-India relations in not Cyprus or Pakistan,
but rather the stress on mutual strengthening of their economies and providing an
environment for greater understanding of each other. Establishing a norm of soft power
potentialities and creating stable bilateral political interaction along with recognizing
mutual threats and opportunities may also accelerate this process.

 

[ejazr]

Well being Islamist and being pro-pak are two different things. Turkey-Pakistan relations are more military-military than anything else. This is primarily because they were part of the Cold War alliance. So this has more to do with that Cold war umbrella than anything else.

When Pakistan and the Saudis and US to a lesser extent were supporting the Taliban in the 90s. Iran, Russia, CIS and Turkey all worked with India to counter that influence and were on the same side.

Moreover, Turkish people do not have a good view of China because of the oppressive tactics including no freedom to practice religion that the Uighurs have in China. Ofcourse some Pakistanis also are not happy with this but at the governmental level they don't make a peep about it unlike the Turksih govt. that is quite vocal about it. Turkey and the entire world knows that the balance ofpower is shifting east so if China-Turkey relations are not comfortable, it woudl be really sad if India did not take advantage of that.

More recently, there was a Turkey-India-CIS forum which was basically an economic forum.India-Turkey-CIS forum to focus on trade, JV & investments

Now, Iran probably has the most politcal Islamist system among muslim countries in the world. And arguably has held the most pro-India stance as well. The bottom line is that all these countries act in a perfectly rational way where they say their geo-political interests lie. The problem with Pakistan is that at times it doesn't act rationally precisely because it keeps bringing in a religious world view instead of its geo-politcal interests.

 

[ahmedsid]

There is a good rapport between the Turkish Army and the Pakistani Army. Pakistan basically enjoys the relationship with the Turkish Army, while its Relationship with the Political Leadership is nothing too great. The Turkish Army Prides itself for being "Secular" Yet when it comes to Pakistan it forgets everything. Well thats just self serving I guess, and they aint that secular. Now that the New Govt will be overriding the Army, I hope to see better Relations with India.

 

[Yusuf]

Only recently Turkey was molly coddling with Pak. So that would have not done anything good for the relations with India. Also Turkey is moving away from the west and India is moving closer to the west. India is close to Israel now and Turkey is trying to become the leader of anti Israel block and become a leader of the Islamic world.

There is a lot of potential for good economic ties between Turkey and India. It depends on how the political angle works out between the two countries.

 

[thakur_ritesh]

Very difficult to trust the turks, much like it is very difficult to trust the Saudis and the Chinese. Anyways these countries can be used to further our economic interests and seek their support on crucial aspects which will help India scale up its profile and if they are ready to do as much, its more than good. Looking at them for anything else would be foolhardy.

 

[ejazr]

IMO this is the era of forging ties and alliances. The cold war ended the old alliances and it has taken a while before those old alliances have been softened or broken down. I doubt we can expect a pro-India attitude to be equvalent to an anti-Pakistan attitude by countries. Even in the case of the US or EU we can see that they will not follow a purely anti-Pakistan policy, particularly when it comes to the PA and the US. Visit of President Gul to India was also the first visit by any Turkish president which shows that Turkey wants to upgrade ties with India.

The idea is to see it outside the zero-sum game. For example China is Israel's biggest trade partner after the US. It also imports secrutiy and defence equiment from Israel as well. But that doesn't stop it from being a second biggest trade partner with Turkey as well biggest investor in Iran. The Chinese policy is what we should be following.

 

[Rage]

This is certainly one way of forging closer ties in the right direction:

India, Turkey studying joint FTA possibilities

 

[Tshering22]

The Turks have been building illegal mosques in POK which is internationally disputed area but still they continue building structures taking the permission from rogue separatist government of POK and Pakistani government. To make even a playground, they need to consult both parties and that means us which they don't. I think the new Islamist Turkey is only going to be more Pak-Chinese supportive than India. We might retain our good commercial ties but strategic ties will get worse. Turkey is also moving away from its standard EU and NATO friends and favouring Iran and Syria.

I think the new Turkey is more of a menace than friend. Pakistan gets another new saviour in the form of aid donor and weapons provider apart from China.

 

[ajtr]

Israel analysts see Turkey radicalizing, becoming 'Iran No. 2'​

TEL AVIV — Israel's defense community has assessed that Turkey was moving toward becoming a radical and nuclear Islamic state.Officials and leading analysts asserted that the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was rapidly dismantling the secular Turkish state. They said Erdogan could turn Turkey into another Iran, a radical Muslim state with nuclear weapons.
"There could be a deep strategic change," Amos Gilad, a senior Defense Ministry official, said.Officials cited Turkey's referendum that would revise the secular constitution. They said the 26 amendments approved by 58 percent of voters on Sept. 12 would significantly increase the authority of Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party while marginalizing Turkey's military.

Leading officials expressed concern over Erdogan's growing power in Turkey and his success in intimidating the once-powerful Turkish military, Middle East Newsline reported. They said Erdogan could use his referendum victory to expand Turkey's alliance with neighboring Iran and Syria while fomenting another crisis with Israel.

Turkey has launched plans to build at least two nuclear reactors and produce enriched uranium. But Israeli analysts did not rule out that under Erdogan Turkey could acquire weapons technology under the cover of a civilian nuclear program.

Erdogan, said to be heavily supported by Saudi Arabia, was expected to further downgrade relations with Israel. One prospect was Turkish sponsorship or support for another flotilla to the Gaza Strip. In May 2010, nine passengers, eight of them Turks, were killed in a bloody Israel Navy interception of a Turkish-sponsored flotilla to the Gaza Strip.

"If there is not a change in personality, then Turkey will become Iran No. 2," former National Security Council director Uzi Dayan said.

 

[ajtr]

Retired general confesses to burning mosque to fire up public​

Retired Gen. Sabri YirmibeÅŸoÄŸlu
A retired general who has recently been accused of having conducted an assassination attempt on the life of Turkey's eighth president, Turgut Özal, has inadvertently confessed that he ordered the burning of a mosque as part of psychological warfare operations in 1974.In remarks published in the Haber Türk daily yesterday as part of an interview with Gen. Sabri YirmibeÅŸoÄŸlu, who led the Special War Department in 1971 and also worked to mobilize civilian resistance during Turkey's military intervention on Cyprus in 1974, said: "In Special War, certain acts of sabotage are staged and blamed on the enemy to increase public resistance. We did this on Cyprus; we even burnt down a mosque." In response to the surprised correspondent's incredulous look the general said, "I am giving an example," in an attempt to clear things up.

The retired general is also believed to have wide-ranging information concerning many alleged crimes and activities of behind-the-scene organizations such as JÄ°TEM. He was also implicated in the Sept. 6-7, 1955 pogrom in Ä°stanbul against minorities, which today is widely believed to have been part of a manipulative plan concocted by Ergenekon-like structures. YirmibeÅŸoÄŸlu has admitted that the Sept. 6-7 events were organized by the Special War Department, documented by journalist Fatih GüllapoÄŸlu in his book "Operation with No Tanks or Arms." In the book, YirmibeÅŸoÄŸlu is quoted as saying, "Sept. 6-7 is the work of Special War [department], and it is a spectacular organization." In the interview with Haber Türk, YirmibeÅŸoÄŸlu also attempted to clarify this point. He partially denied what was in the book saying, "In 1971 I was assigned as the senior [head] of the Special War Department. At the time, there was actually no department called the Special War Department, there was only the Mobility Investigation Board that was set up for Cyprus."

The confession brings to mind the Balyoz (Sledgehammer) coup plot, allegedly drafted by a clique in the military to undermine the government. Dozens of military officers were arrested, although most were later released during the investigation into the Sledgehammer document, which includes plans to bomb the Fatih and Beyazıt mosques and down a Turkish jet over the Aegean to fuel problems with Greece with the ultimate aim of discrediting the government.

When allegations regarding the Sledgehammer plan first arose after the document was leaked to the press earlier this year, then-Chief of General Staff Gen.Ä°lker BaÅŸbuÄŸ dismissed the accusations as nonsense. BaÅŸbuÄŸ said a military whose troops are known for shouting "Allah Allah" as they attack the enemy could not possibly think of burning the house of God. However, YirmibeÅŸoÄŸlu's revelation shows that this has actually been done before.

 

[Tshering22]

Israel analysts see Turkey radicalizing, becoming 'Iran No. 2'​

TEL AVIV — Israel's defense community has assessed that Turkey was moving toward becoming a radical and nuclear Islamic state.Officials and leading analysts asserted that the government of Prime Minister Recep Erdogan was rapidly dismantling the secular Turkish state. They said Erdogan could turn Turkey into another Iran, a radical Muslim state with nuclear weapons.
"There could be a deep strategic change," Amos Gilad, a senior Defense Ministry official, said.Officials cited Turkey's referendum that would revise the secular constitution. They said the 26 amendments approved by 58 percent of voters on Sept. 12 would significantly increase the authority of Erdogan's ruling Justice and Development Party while marginalizing Turkey's military.

Leading officials expressed concern over Erdogan's growing power in Turkey and his success in intimidating the once-powerful Turkish military, Middle East Newsline reported. They said Erdogan could use his referendum victory to expand Turkey's alliance with neighboring Iran and Syria while fomenting another crisis with Israel.

Turkey has launched plans to build at least two nuclear reactors and produce enriched uranium. But Israeli analysts did not rule out that under Erdogan Turkey could acquire weapons technology under the cover of a civilian nuclear program.

Erdogan, said to be heavily supported by Saudi Arabia, was expected to further downgrade relations with Israel. One prospect was Turkish sponsorship or support for another flotilla to the Gaza Strip. In May 2010, nine passengers, eight of them Turks, were killed in a bloody Israel Navy interception of a Turkish-sponsored flotilla to the Gaza Strip.

"If there is not a change in personality, then Turkey will become Iran No. 2," former National Security Council director Uzi Dayan said.

Well Turkey is showing up all signs of giving up its previous modernist image. AKP's action, unnecessary diplomatic aggression and recent military warm-up with Iran and Russia is sending some signals that don't rule out a radicalization of the otherwise modernist country. From what I gathered talking to Turkish members on multiple forums, Turkish military is angry with the mullaization of AKP's leaders of the social order and therefore wants to overthrow them and bring back an aggressively nationalist-Kemalist regime back.

A nationalist-Westernized society in Turkey is far more preferable rather than the nasty turn Turkey has recently made. From our POV I think we should ask Turkey to desist building illegal mosques unilaterally in POK with just POK and Pakistani government's permission alone and see what they have to say. Turkey should know that it can either have the cake or eat it and not BOTH.

 

[cobra commando]

Re: Can the Rise of 'New' Turkey Lead to a 'New' Era in India-Turkey R

Indian, Turkish industry bodies sign pact to boost ties - The Economic Times