Can Russia's military fly without Ukraine's parts?

Discussion in 'Europe and Russia' started by amoy, Apr 14, 2014.

  1. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Can Russia's military fly without Ukraine's parts? - CSMonitor.com
    Russian forces rely on Ukrainian engines, weapons, and aircraft – and Kiev, fearing invasion, is considering pulling the plug on its supplies.

    By Fred Weir, Correspondent / April 10, 2014

    [​IMG]
    A Ukrainian Mi-24 military helicopter is seen near the village of Salkovo, adjacent to Crimea, last month. Ukraine is a major producer of Russian military components – including helicopter engines – throwing a new wrinkle into Russia's efforts to pressure Kiev.

    MOSCOW
    Russia's sleek new military machine, currently poised on Ukraine's eastern borders, has a problem: It runs on components produced in Ukraine, which are still being delivered by Ukrainian companies.

    And now, Ukraine's beleaguered interim government is warning that it might call a halt to all arms supplies to Russia: "Manufacturing products for Russia that will later be aimed against us would be complete insanity," Vitaliy Yarema, Kiev's first deputy prime minister, said.

    Such a move, experts say, could cause serious damage to Russia's military capacity, by greatly increasing the costs of the sweeping modernization ordered by the Kremlin after Russia's 2008 war with Georgia exposed serious shortcomings in the country's military preparedness. But in the longer term, experts add, the economic pain is likely to be felt more deeply in Ukraine, for whom Russia is the irreplaceable market for about 90 percent of its military exports.

    Russo-Ukrainian military industry

    The Kremlin is taking the prospect of a cutoff very seriously. At a government meeting Wednesday, President Vladimir Putin ordered emergency measures to work around any sudden cutoff of military components from Ukraine and promised to find funds to pay for it. "We need to look ahead and work out which Russian companies, in what time frame, and at what cost could produce these goods," Mr. Putin told his ministers.

    Russian Industry Minister Denis Manturov told Putin that the value of outstanding orders from Ukraine in the "civilian and defense" sectors is more than $15 billion. Analysts say a major part of that would be military parts and equipment.

    "This is a really unpleasant moment for Russia," because military cooperation with Ukraine was vital, says Viktor Litovkin, a military expert with the official ITAR-Tass news agency.

    Though military integration between Russia and Ukraine is well down from its Soviet-era peak, Ukraine still makes a surprising number of essential parts that go into modern Russian weaponry.

    According to a 2009 survey by Kiev's Razumkov Center, Ukrainian factories produce the engines that power most Russian combat helicopters; about half of the air-to-air missiles deployed on Russian fighter planes; and a range of engines used by Russian aircraft and naval vessels. The state-owned Antonov works in Kiev makes a famous range of transport aircraft, including the modern AN-70. The Russian Air Force was to receive 60 of the sleek new short-takeoff-and-landing aircraft, which now it may have to do without.

    Valentin Badrak, director of the Center of Army Studies in Kiev, says that even Russia's new Ilyushin Il-476 transport aircraft, which is built in the central Russian city of Ulyanovsk, cannot be produced without Ukrainian spare parts. He says Russia will be hurt by a cutoff of cooperation in "several spheres.... In Ukraine we have about two dozen companies that had projects with Russia important to Russia's security and defense."

    The mainstay of Russia's strategic missile forces is the SS-18 Satan multiple-warhead intercontinental ballistic missile, all of which were produced in Soviet times at the giant Yuzhmash works in Dnipropetrovsk, and which still rely on Ukrainian expertise to keep in working order. However, the Razumkov report notes that Russia's next generation of strategic missiles, including the mobile Topol-M, are entirely produced in Russia.

    "We have our own specialists who can service the Satan missiles," says Mr. Litovkin. "The problem is mostly a legal one," because the Ukrainians have the propriety rights to do that work, he adds.

    Selling Russian secrets?

    The Kremlin may also be worried that a Ukraine freed from its contractual obligations to Moscow might go out and sell Russian military secrets to other countries.

    Russia's foreign ministry posted an unusual note earlier this week warning that Ukrainian representatives of Yuzhmash, which built the SS-18, were meeting with "representatives of some countries, regarding the sale of a production technology for heavy-class intercontinental ballistic missiles."

    It added "we trust that despite the complicated foreign policy situation in Ukraine and the lack of legitimate supreme authorities, the current leaders of the country will be responsible, will fully comply with their obligation" to fulfill legal requirements and international rules against the proliferation of missile technologies.

    Some Russian bloggers suggested that Ukraine was trying to sell Russian heavy missile technology to Turkey, a NATO country.

    Costs for Ukraine

    Experts say that Russia's dependence on Ukraine is a Soviet-era habit that, once broken, will prove to be a boost to Russia's own military-industrial development.

    "I think we will survive this stroke of misfortune," says Litovkin. "Russian industry can compensate for the losses, but it will require investment and may take some time."

    For Ukraine, on the other hand, severing military manufacturing ties with Russia could be devastating in the long run. Ukraine makes few complete weapons systems – other than T-84 tanks, some Soviet-era air defense missiles, and Antonov planes – and would struggle to find alternative markets for its mainstay production of Russian military hardware components.

    "For the Ukrainian military-industrial complex, it will be a disaster," leading to plant closures and tens of thousands of unemployed workers, predicts Igor Korotchenko, director of the independent Center for Analysis of World Arms Trade in Moscow.

    "As for Russia, the situation is bad," he adds, "but we'll survive."
     
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  3. rock127

    rock127 Maulana Rockullah Senior Member

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    Is this the reason Russia is looking to annex East Ukraine?
     
  4. ninja85

    ninja85 Regular Member

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  5. The Fox

    The Fox Regular Member

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    well In this case India Should step in and offer to help Russia in helping them supply the required parts for their armed forces Russia has the technology and the Indian Private Sector have Industrial base and we can combine forces so its a win win situation for India and Russia. provided our government takes necessary steps towards it .
    Reason i am suggesting is because
    1. India do not have any dispute with Russia
    2. The two countries are Strategic partners since the 60's
    3. India has 70% of its defense equipment are Russian origin and there is a commonality with the equipment both of us use.
    4. This will prove our friendship and increase the trust and the Russians will depend on us that will give us the leverage in negotiating future deals
    and avoid INS Vikramaditya like situation.
    5. This will also help us absorb critical technology and improve the indiginisation and source the parts for our armed forces locally

     
    Last edited: Apr 14, 2014
  6. wegweg

    wegweg Regular Member

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    In response, Ukraine can supply Nuclear missile technology to Pakistan to take out Indian factories supplying arms to their Russian enemy.
     
  7. SajeevJino

    SajeevJino Long walk Elite Member

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    I don't think they will Transfer the Blue Prints to Pakistan nor China ..India and Israel won't allow to hands on Pakistan into the Blue prints ..But NATO or West is questionable ..?
     
  8. wegweg

    wegweg Regular Member

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    Russia has destroyed Ukraine's economy, stopping them selling to the highest bidder maybe difficult.
     
  9. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    BREAKING NEWS – Ukraine Government Fires Antonov Boss - ego-mediaservices Webseite!
    In a statement, the Ukrainian government announced that it has fired Mr Dmitry Kiva - the head of the Antonov Design Bureau at Kiev-based Antonov Airlines.

    [​IMG]
    Close ties with Moscow cost him his job – Antonov boss Dmitry Kiva

    Mr Kiva had almost full control over the Ukrainian AN-124 sales program and was seen as being one of the key lobbyists for a close cooperation with Russia on the AN-148, AN-70 and update of the AN-124 aircraft.

    It is interesting to note that the joint test program between Russia and the Ukraine for the AN-70 has been completed and plans were for a serial production of the aircraft for the air forces of both countries. This project has apparently also now been cancelled by the new Ukrainian government. CargoForwarder Global understands that Mr Kiva was also a close confidant and working partner with Volga-Dnepr Airlines who have put much faith and effort into the production of an updated AN-124 transporter.

    It is today unclear as to who, if anybody, can fill that gap.

    [​IMG]
    Had ambitious plans – Dmitry Kiva (left) and Sergey Morozov / source: MAKS

    Close ties with Russian colleagues
    How closely the Antonov Design Bureau helmsman’s activities are intermeshed with the interests of the Russian aviation industry was vividly demonstrated to a broad public last October at the Moscow-held Aerospace Salon MAKS. There, Kiva and the Governor of the (Russian) Ulyanovsk Region Sergey Morozov signed a long-term agreement to push after-sales services for Antonov’s various aircraft programs ahead and foster joint initiatives for the production of future passenger and cargo planes.

    At the Paris Air Show in Le Bourget last June Kiva had strongly advocated the launch of a modernized Antonov-124 freighter program. With its payload capability of 150 tons, “the new An-124 will be a transporter hardly any other aircraft will surpass in foreseeable times,” Kiva emphasized. He strongly supported political initiatives to assemble the An-124 successor at the Ulyanovsk-based manufacturer Aviastar. “All we still need to get this project off the ground is an endorsement from the Russian government,” he concluded. However, with Russia’s occupation of the Crimea Peninsula and Putin’s blatant striving for setting foot in the eastern parts of the Ukraine these plans have meanwhile gone to ashes.
     
  10. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    I do not yet have such information.
     
  11. SajeevJino

    SajeevJino Long walk Elite Member

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    .

    I also Somewhere Heard that US Urges Ukraine to stop providing Technical assistance to the SS 18 Satan ICBM
     
  12. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Yes. But this medium-term 3-5 years. During this term Russia will supply a sufficient number of complexes "Yars". It is not serious for Russia's threat.
     
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  13. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    Will such Ukrainian makers, mostly in the east, as [ Zorya Mashproekt, Yuzhmash, DK UkrOboronProm and Мотор Січ ] sink into a coma, owing to the continued turmoil and prospect of suspension of Russian orders ?
     
  14. Akim

    Akim Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    At the beginning of the crisis, the main customer for space products from Ukraine, was not Russia but the US and the EU. Russia bought a lot of aircraft and helicopter engines. But she will be able to replace their analogs. Ukraine is also looking for buyers. No secret that high-tech industry was oriented towards Russia. To predict do not undertake, but Ukraine revives domestic purchase. KB "Artem" received an order for missiles air to air, KB "Luch" orders for all types of ATGMs and guided aerial bombs and mines,
    "Fort" received a large order for supply of guns, AR's, sniper rifles, large-caliber rifles. "Leninska Kuznya" the order for the supply of armored boats and automatic grenade launchers (UAG-40). Nikolaev shipbuilding plant (ChSZ) for the construction of three heavy corvettes ( 1) is already buildung ). " Yuzhmash" party ASM's. Malyshev Factory and Kiev armoured plant - the party of 194 BTR-4 ( different modifications) and 22 BTR-E1
     
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  15. JBH22

    JBH22 Senior Member Senior Member

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    It is known that Russia is going for other missiles as the SS-18 is a relic of cold war. Moreover, Russia has all the facilities to service these missiles.

    Detailed discussion is on mp.net.

    Btw Putin rocks
     
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  16. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    That is an Mi-8, not Mi-24.
     

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