Can India do a Falklands war type campaign if PLAN takes over Andamans

Known_Unknown

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Edited Part sounds bit realistic..

But again do you know the island and its observation posts ?, Its Military Base with a major command there..

Also we have Spy network in all near by ports in Burma and others, Any military movement can easily warned before they even sailed..
If the quality of our "spy network" is the same as during the Mumbai attacks, then better not have much faith in it. For an advancing enemy force, whether naval or land, there are always three necessary conditions: LOGISTICS, LOGISTICS, and LOGISTICS!! Without re-supply, no Chinese or other invading force will last long. Now how will they be re-supplied? To think that supplies will go through Burma is not logical, the Burmese junta would never risk an Indian invasion by providing a supply route to China.

Only other route left is through the Malacca Straits. If India blocks the IOR side of the Malacca Straits, then China will face a problem. However, if China attacks the Indian coastal cities to relieve pressure on occupied Andaman, this may escalate into an all out war. And in that case, I think it will result in Indian defeat, and GoI will have to cede Andamans to China, as the Indian Armed Forces are not capable of sustaining a long drawn out war.
 

Kunal Biswas

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If the quality of our "spy network" is the same as during the Mumbai attacks, then better not have much faith in it. For an advancing enemy force, whether naval or land, there are always three necessary conditions: LOGISTICS, LOGISTICS, and LOGISTICS!! Without re-supply, no Chinese or other invading force will last long. Now how will they be re-supplied? To think that supplies will go through Burma is not logical, the Burmese junta would never risk an Indian invasion by providing a supply route to China.

Only other route left is through the Malacca Straits. If India blocks the IOR side of the Malacca Straits, then China will face a problem. However, if China attacks the Indian coastal cities to relieve pressure on occupied Andaman, this may escalate into an all out war. And in that case, I think it will result in Indian defeat, and GoI will have to cede Andamans to China, as the Indian Armed Forces are not capable of sustaining a long drawn out war.
Again you cannot measure security enviorment of Mumbai with Military base Andamans island..

As i posted on Page1, Logistic will never come as the first objective cannot be secured that is destrotion of Andaman defenses, that is early warning station, Airbases permanently out of action, Shore batteries gone, No Anti-ship batteries on island so does no SAM defense..

They have to get in range to attack Indian coastal cities, think abt massive Indian assets both air and sea there..

India cannot be defeated with present situation, It will be a bloody draw..

China too is not planning for a long war, take my word for it..
 

Known_Unknown

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Again you cannot measure security enviorment of Mumbai with Military base Andamans island..

As i posted on Page1, Logistic will never come as the first objective cannot be secured that is destrotion of Andaman defenses, that is early warning station, Airbases permanently out of action, Shore batteries gone, No Anti-ship batteries on island so does no SAM defense..

They have to get in range to attack Indian coastal cities, think abt massive Indian assets both air and sea there..

India cannot be defeated with present situation, It will be a bloody draw..

China too is not planning for a long war, take my word for it..
You're right, Mumbai cannot be compared with Andamans. Mumbai is home to BARC, TIFR, Indian Navy and Army bases, and is the economic capital, yet the coastline was easily breached by a bunch of relatively poorly equipped terrorists. I shudder to think what a Pak or Chinese special forces commando attack on Mumbai would look like. If this is the state of Mumbai, what sort of defences do you think the Andamans have and how effective will they be in the event of a surprise attack?

Do we even know the how many Indian troops are on Andaman? I'm guessing not too many, maybe 1000-2000. China could easily drop that amount of paratroopers to disable or capture the vital installations including air defences, communications, and airfields. Simultaneously, it could launch an air bombing campaign to distract Indian troops from what was happening.

The Indian naval defences at Andaman (or in general) are....well, the less spoken about them, the better. China has over 60 submarines including SSBN's, which would probably sink any Indian ships before they were noticed.

With their communication equipment not working, and no idea of how many enemy invaders exist, confusion will reign supreme, and within 24-48 hours, the main island would fall into Chinese hands.
 

Armand2REP

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who told you that? we have operating bases of army/navy/air forces nearby 24/7. so there is no way any French fishing boat is going to go un-detected.
Of course it will be detected, but you won't be ready for it as there is nothing to suspect. It already got close to island this year.

FYI:
-108 Infantry Brigade of the Indian Army, which in turn includes the 21 Bihar, is deployed to the A&N Command
-The IAF has in the recent past operated its frontline SU-30MKI air superiority aircraft from its bases in Car Nicobar islands
-Not to mention the presence of IN ships as we have operation ports in there.
108th is based at Port Blair, not Car Nicobar. There are no warships that operate under the A&N command area to stop it, just patrol, logistics and tank landing boats. Those boats would be mostly wiped out in the air raid. No way to get those troops to Car Nicobar then.

you see, i am not from pakistan to think about exploding dirty bomb on my own soil. as ace009 have said, i meant conventional warhead like CL-20 and not nuclear warhead. even if we take 100 nukes first WE WILL STILL RETALIATE. to retaliate we won't need 100 MT nukes, we will need only one nuke in KT to mount incalculable damages to any nation.
Agni doesn't have a high enough CEP to use conventional warheads. It would be pretty ineffectual and a waste of India's nuclear deterrent. US and France are the only two countries that have the missile accuracy to make a hit and we don't. India getting into a nuclear war with France would be pretty funny since they can't hit it.

FYI: DRDO just finished development of CL-20
FYI... don't matter

And where exactly will your rafales hide when i launch long range missiles from delhi and target all air bases on those islands? this is not libya my friend, so do not expect that your rafales will be facing only classic mig21's and 23's. as Ace009 said, how many paratroopers will rafale be able to shoot down?
Since Agni would never be used, not worried about that. CdG would be hanging outside detection range until IN is alerted and would launch immediate air raids on Port Blair. Car Nicobar would already be flying the French flag so no airbases for India in region to use. Shooting down paratroopers is EASY.

plus, do not underestimate that our Mig29ks and mki's will hesitate to reach those islands; both Mig29k and su30mki can aerial refuel and buddy-refuel. plus they can always have the company of AWACS and air-tankers. mki is itself an mini AWACS. what mig29ks needs to do is escort su30mki half way by offering buddy refueling and then return to the base while su30mki will continue its mission. mki's will attack the island with full force and will raise everything to the ground that is non-indian within couple of hour.
Sorry, but India never bought refueling kits for her fighters. MKI, tankers, anything that goes up will be detected by AWACs and intercepted. If India takes it to attacks from the mainland, we will launch Scalp and Apache cruise missiles at subcontinent airbases to shut them down. Once Car Nicobar AFB is secure, we will be ferrying Rafales from Saint Denis AFB, running an airbridge and supply convoys from Reunion. You could try hunting those down, but they will be thousands of kilometres from the mainland.

(yes, su30mki can buddy refuel; this is one of the many secrets of our mki)
Nope, IAF don't have buddy pods.

if it can fly and drop biggest bomb that it can carry on the enemy then it is a threat to you. Guess what? even our AN-32 can do all weather all day carpet bombing. and this is not my last option, there are 1000's of other options too.
Well, French Marines come with Mistral and Roland 3 SAMs so anyone flying low enough to drop dumb bombs will be shot down. Once the follow-up fleet gets there, they will drop off 2 SAMP-T batteries so you can forget about anything flying close to the island. There really are no options when you don't have air superiority.

my browser do not come with spell-checker and me no born english :) and i am proud that i am not english.
You don't need spell check to know the difference between cursing and cruising since it wouldn't pick it up. :)

I am not saying that the island cannot be taken, but i am trying to say that taking the island is not a child's play.
Taking Car Nicobar is simple if you got suprise. Taking Port Blair would be next to impossible with its garrison which is why I didn't select it as a target. The assertion was only the US could take a single island of the chain, well it is actually US + France are the only ones who could. Set up an impenetrable SAM defence with a working airbase along with a carrier and India would be unable to mount a retake. If China started cruising an LPD there would be an immediate Indian mobilisation preventing such a scenario. Once China gets a fleet that can force a landing, India has something to be worried about.

you are a fan of TOM CLANCY don't you?
Who is that?
 

thakur_ritesh

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I have a few questions;

1. What would be the force required by China to capture Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) Islands/

2. How (the route(s)) will this force reach Andaman and Nicobar (A&N) coast?

3. Can this Chinese force reach Andaman and Nicobar (A&N)undetected?

4. If the Chinese Force cannot reach undetected, then when detected, what will be the Indian and other interested nations reactions to include the US, and the littoral nations?

5. Will 'interested' country allow an independent Chinese presence (assuming that China captures A&N) in the Indian Ocean?

6. If China is interested in capturing A&N, can it be in total secrecy and India be surprised?

7. If not, what would be the reaction in the overall context, in the international political scene?

8. Will the other fronts not also get activated along China?

I saw a post that said that PLAN would come in from Myanmar. How would the expeditionary force reach Myanmar without detection the the India and the US and be allowed to assemble in Myanmar?
Sir,

with all due respect,

were we aware about kargil before it happened?

before 26/11 various articles state there was enough intelligence pouring in, in fact americans claim the intelligence was being fed from august onwards of an imminent threat and the outer cordon of security is formed by the IN. it was MARCOS which claimed that one of the wings of the taj had been cleared, when the terrorists were still inside.

recently an unmanned ship sneaked in undetected and now every concerned security force including the IN are either passing the blame/responsibility or coming up with stories that they were following it but till the vessel was reported sunk, great way of following one might add that we are not even aware if a vessel is still floating or not.

looking at that, one doesnt feel too confident and then 9/11 happened under the nose of security forces that are supposed to be as good as they come, so any such thing happening and going undetected wont be that big a deal. we as a country are very much capable of it.
 

Kunal Biswas

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You're right, Mumbai cannot be compared with Andamans. Mumbai is home to BARC, TIFR, Indian Navy and Army bases, and is the economic capital, yet the coastline was easily breached by a bunch of relatively poorly equipped terrorists. I shudder to think what a Pak or Chinese special forces commando attack on Mumbai would look like. If this is the state of Mumbai, what sort of defences do you think the Andamans have and how effective will they be in the event of a surprise attack?
Security Environment:
What abt the massive population which simple out number the security forces mumbai ?

who is mainting front line there, Is it Indian Army or Indian Navy ?, Do coast guards have sufficient no of hard wares ?

What is political situation there and Local law and order effectiveness, What is the level of corruption ?

Mumbai security is poorer that Srinagar in Kashmir.. Question is why ?

Do we even know the how many Indian troops are on Andaman? I'm guessing not too many, maybe 1000-2000.
Lot more than that, number is for 2 - 3 Infantry Units, Their is navy to so does air-force, Also i mentioned abt Armour too..

In those small Islands..


China could easily drop that amount of paratroopers to disable or capture the vital installations including air defences, communications, and airfields. Simultaneously, it could launch an air bombing campaign to distract Indian troops from what was happening.
Not feasible, No Aircraft can flown from PRC directly undetected, para-dropping is out of question given the idea of surveillance in N.E and Andaman, Only option is CV/AC in South China sea..

The Indian naval defences at Andaman (or in general) are....well, the less spoken about them, the better. China has over 60 submarines including SSBN's, which would probably sink any Indian ships before they were noticed.
Out of 60, 45-50 are in pasafic and Japan sea, Rest are near South China sea, besides dont miss out Indian ASW a capability as i mentioned abt IL-38 and TU-142ME with ASW frigates..

With their communication equipment not working, and no idea of how many enemy invaders exist, confusion will reign supreme, and within 24-48 hours, the main island would fall into Chinese hands.
How communication fails like that ?, And why their is confusion ?, Every possible senerio is known very well..
 

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What if China has a naval base in pakistan, how much will the scenario change? Then wouldn't our naval forces be more concentrated in the Arabian sea. We are talking 2020 afterall.
 

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Comparing the intel failure of Mumbai where 10 terrorists sneaked in using small boats to something that will we will be able to see (as in cricket parlance) as big as a football, its completely flawed.

Armand, your Mistral may have gone close to the islands, but the question is was it detected or not. A lot of ships might be passing great nicobar at short distance because of its proximity to the Malaccas, do you think India does not have that covered? Do you think there is no intel gathering mechanism there? For Gods sake that is sovereign Indian territory that India will protect at all costs and have its defenses ready.

Another thing, does India need to worry about a French Mistral getting close? It doesnt. But a chinese boat will be tracked from a distance and will not be allowed to come anywhere close to Indian border. The difference is threat perception. Friend or foe.
 

thakur_ritesh

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Comparing the intel failure of Mumbai where 10 terrorists sneaked in using small boats to something that will we will be able to see (as in cricket parlance) as big as a football, its completely flawed.

Armand, your Mistral may have gone close to the islands, but the question is was it detected or not. A lot of ships might be passing great nicobar at short distance because of its proximity to the Malaccas, do you think India does not have that covered? Do you think there is no intel gathering mechanism there? For Gods sake that is sovereign Indian territory that India will protect at all costs and have its defenses ready.

Another thing, does India need to worry about a French Mistral getting close? It doesnt. But a chinese boat will be tracked from a distance and will not be allowed to come anywhere close to Indian border. The difference is threat perception. Friend or foe.
and what if people keep trickling-in in numbers around 10 and so, and the process keeps getting repeated? will we dismiss it again as being flawed? has someone thought what if people were to be moved in through submarines, submarine holds its position and people in numbers of 10odd keep dropping by or is that also inconceivable?
 

Kunal Biswas

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What if China has a naval base in pakistan, how much will the scenario change? Then wouldn't our naval forces be more concentrated in the Arabian sea. We are talking 2020 afterall.
That depend on the size of the force, To combat Western thread western fleet is their..

To combat Eastern thread eastern fleet is their, But the forces can interchange Ships needed for use..
 

Known_Unknown

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Comparing the intel failure of Mumbai where 10 terrorists sneaked in using small boats to something that will we will be able to see (as in cricket parlance) as big as a football, its completely flawed.
You mean like the recent incident with the "sunken" ship off the coast of Mumbai? Funny how nobody detected it eh, the navy, coast guard etc. Hopefully that was big enough as a football......if not, then maybe it's time to own up that they're just incompetent at detecting anything smaller than a supercarrier 2 km off the coast. ROFLMAO.
 

Yusuf

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What if China has a naval base in pakistan, how much will the scenario change? Then wouldn't our naval forces be more concentrated in the Arabian sea. We are talking 2020 afterall.
Whats the guarantee that Pakistan within its current boundaries will last till 2020 or not?
 

Known_Unknown

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To combat Eastern thread eastern fleet is their, But the forces can interchange Ships needed for use..
And China can't move her subs to the IOR from where they are now? What is this? As for paracommando operations, China does have the Varyag now, and we're talking about 2020. I'm not one of those that has a lot of faith in the so-called "surveillance" and "intelligence-gathering" capabilities of the Indian forces. :-/
 

Kunal Biswas

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and what if people keep trickling-in in numbers around 10 and so, and the process keeps getting repeated? will we dismiss it again as being flawed? has someone thought what if people were to be moved in through submarines, submarine holds its position and people in numbers of 10odd keep dropping by or is that also inconceivable?
Its possible in a insecure waters, But Andaman is different story..

PLAN simple can get in or out without detections from sonars on our ships around Andaman..

IN have tight observation from south china sea to Andaman sea to Bay of Bengal..
 

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Whats the guarantee that Pakistan within its current boundaries will last till 2020 or not?
To think like that would be foolish, pakistan is important asset for China, and it will protect its assets.
 

Known_Unknown

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and what if people keep trickling-in in numbers around 10 and so, and the process keeps getting repeated? will we dismiss it again as being flawed? has someone thought what if people were to be moved in through submarines, submarine holds its position and people in numbers of 10odd keep dropping by or is that also inconceivable?
Lol let me guess, the Indian authorities will see these new "chinese-looking" people in plain-clothes on the island, but probably won't bother much thinking them to be refugees from Myanmar or elsehwere.....until one day, a mob of these people suddenly come with guns and take over the military facilities. :pound:
 

Kunal Biswas

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You mean like the recent incident with the "sunken" ship off the coast of Mumbai? Funny how nobody detected it eh, the navy, coast guard etc. Hopefully that was big enough as a football......if not, then maybe it's time to own up that they're just incompetent at detecting anything smaller than a supercarrier 2 km off the coast. ROFLMAO.
Detected yes, action no..
And China can't move her subs to the IOR from where they are now? What is this? As for paracommando operations, China does have the Varyag now, and we're talking about 2020.
Question is from where ?

Even they may have Subs in IOR where US and Assues have too, Near Arabian, Andaman and bay of Bengal is our ASW works..

And what craft can deliver from PLAN CV ?

Also What is the range of such Craft ?

Also What is the use of such small force against a large and well organized adversary with 3-4 squadron of fighter forces and Medium SAM?

the Indian authorities will see these new "chinese-looking" people in plain-clothes on the island, but probably won't bother much thinking them to be refugees from Myanmar or elsehwere.....until one day, a mob of these people suddenly come with guns and take over the military facilities.
Very possible, But are all Major bases in Urban areas where tourist are allowed ?
 
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thakur_ritesh

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Its possible in a insecure waters, But Andaman is different story..

PLAN simple can get in or out without detections from sonars on our ships around Andaman..

IN have tight observation from south china sea to Andaman sea to Bay of Bengal..
Kunal,

i am not sure how true was chinese submarine popping in the middle of US Navy exercise, or was it allowed to have happen on purpose but if it was true and went undetected, do we still feel as confident?
 

Ray

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I think PLAN would start small - first get a foothold - probably in the Island farthest from the mainland - send in a regiment strength of Marines to prepare a toehold - then push through an Engineering brigade and another regiment of light armor. Once the basic defenses (SAM, AA and anti-Ship missile batteries) are up, they can push in a division to complete their foothold.
To understand any operations one has to understand, apart from the opposition, the terrain.

The terrain may allow a 'foothold' but armour, light or otherwise, as I understand, is definitely, would be a waste of resources.

Have we considered the artillery support and the numbers required?

When the 'toehold' operation is on, would India be inactive?




The route will be, as I speculated earlier, the railroad they are building from south-western PRC border to the Chinese-built port of Dawei in Burma. From there they will use civvy boats to send in the expeditionary forces.


A regiment strength infantry force - sure - they can use a container ship to reach near Great Nicobar and then deploy fishing boats, trawlers etc and reach the shore in the cover of darkness. The larger forces later on cannot remain undetected, but they can provide air cover for these.
When the assault of the 'toehold' operations is on, it will require artillery support. But then there will be no artillery support till there is adequate of a 'beachhead' for deployment of artillery. Therefore, in the interim, one has to depend on naval gun support in the classical beachhead ops. Therefore, my question is that how many naval ships have guns?

If civil boats or container ships are used, how will the organise the gun support required for securing the gun support?

A regiment being carried requires adequate number of ships and if they come in penny packets in a variety of crafts, the command and control in just getting them to assault and then reorganise on the beach will be one huge combat management issue.

It will be rare if a beachhead ops can be completed in one night under the cover of darkness!


When detected, the reaction of the international community will be the same as against Pakistan in Kargil 1998 - "swift and complete condemnation and all MORAL support to India" ... The USA might do some sabre-rattling and threaten PRC with dire consequences if the try to invade Diego Garcia - but that's it!
If Kargil was lost by India or the fact that Pakistan came a cropper, how did it affect US' geostrategic equation? Since it did not, they did not care who won or the fact that India won. All the US was worried is that there should be no nuclear exchange!

In the Indian Ocean Region, US rules supreme. The US Fifth Fleet at Bahrien and the Seventh Fleet are basically to ensure the Persian Gulf, East Africa and all of Indian Ocean are 'sanitised' of anti US geo strategic interest.

US would hardly allow a 'competitor' i.e. China to have a foothold in the Indian Ocean in any form.

That is the difference.



Depends upon the financial and millitary situation of the time. Given current trends, most of the western nations are too deeply tied to PRC - they are either in debt or have too much investment riding in Chinese markets. So, the last thing they would want is an escalation to full fledged war - so they would like to mediate between PRC and India and ask for a compromise - say PRC give up most of the islands and can only keep the farthest two or some such crap.
US maybe in debt, but China is in no better a position since it is holding much of that debt in US Treasury notes, which are slowly becoming 'Fools Gold'. So, while one may gloat the US sinks, but it is sinking others too and the one who hold the US debt are sinking faster and deeper!!

Honestly, where an empty tanker-ship floating through the ocean, reaches Bombay shores through the Arabian sea, despite three levels of Indian maritime defence (IN, ICG and Mumbai police), then what's to unlikely about a planned PLAN marine secret attack on Great Nicobar - the island furthest from the mainland, with very little recon and defense patrols?
I agree on that.

However, when an expeditionary force is mounted it is not just one blip on the radar!

It then becomes 'chaotic' on the screen and no expeditionary force can be mounted without info being leaked. And in this case, the US would be very interested and their resources are greater than India!


Again, your question assumes that India would find out about the invasion before the landing and can intercept the PLAN landing boats - I do not agree.
No contest.

But the US would be very interested!



Yes - that is the entire premise - the A&N will be done in the cover of two pronged attacks - in the west by Pakistan and in the NE by PRC.
Now work out the manner in which things will be falling in place.


As explained before - through rail roads from PRC border - with the help of Burmese Junta - they will off course have "plausible deniability".
Easier said and done.

Move a force by rail or road and realise how all come to know of it!

Of course it will be detected, but you won't be ready for it as there is nothing to suspect. It already got close to island this year.

108th is based at Port Blair, not Car Nicobar. There are no warships that operate under the A&N command area to stop it, just patrol, logistics and tank landing boats. Those boats would be mostly wiped out in the air raid. No way to get those troops to Car Nicobar then.


Agni doesn't have a high enough CEP to use conventional warheads. It would be pretty ineffectual and a waste of India's nuclear deterrent. US and France are the only two countries that have the missile accuracy to make a hit and we don't. India getting into a nuclear war with France would be pretty funny since they can't hit it.

FYI... don't matter

Since Agni would never be used, not worried about that. CdG would be hanging outside detection range until IN is alerted and would launch immediate air raids on Port Blair. Car Nicobar would already be flying the French flag so no airbases for India in region to use. Shooting down paratroopers is EASY.

Sorry, but India never bought refueling kits for her fighters. MKI, tankers, anything that goes up will be detected by AWACs and intercepted. If India takes it to attacks from the mainland, we will launch Scalp and Apache cruise missiles at subcontinent airbases to shut them down. Once Car Nicobar AFB is secure, we will be ferrying Rafales from Saint Denis AFB, running an airbridge and supply convoys from Reunion. You could try hunting those down, but they will be thousands of kilometres from the mainland.

Nope, IAF don't have buddy pods.

Well, French Marines come with Mistral and Roland 3 SAMs so anyone flying low enough to drop dumb bombs will be shot down. Once the follow-up fleet gets there, they will drop off 2 SAMP-T batteries so you can forget about anything flying close to the island. There really are no options when you don't have air superiority.

You don't need spell check to know the difference between cursing and cruising since it wouldn't pick it up. :)

Taking Car Nicobar is simple if you got suprise. Taking Port Blair would be next to impossible with its garrison which is why I didn't select it as a target. The assertion was only the US could take a single island of the chain, well it is actually US + France are the only ones who could. Set up an impenetrable SAM defence with a working airbase along with a carrier and India would be unable to mount a retake. If China started cruising an LPD there would be an immediate Indian mobilisation preventing such a scenario. Once China gets a fleet that can force a landing, India has something to be worried about.

Who is that?
I find it funny why France has to attack A&N.

France, even if it wants to do so, will not be able to sustain logistically.

Too hypothetical and far fetched!
 
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Illusive

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That depend on the size of the force, To combat Western thread western fleet is their..

To combat Eastern thread eastern fleet is their, But the forces can interchange Ships needed for use..
That not he point..........we would be more focused to the western side because we have Chinese fleet here. The point of having a naval base in pakistan, means that India's focus remains to the western front, cause thats a real threat, rather than chinese wanting to occupy andaman later.
 

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