Can India contain China?

Discussion in 'China' started by LETHALFORCE, Oct 19, 2009.

  1. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    My View: Can India contain China?

    Can India contain China?

    Of all the threats, which India faces, the biggest is China. Other threats like Pakistani Army attitude and terrorists are proxy threats. China represents a threat in itself. India and China are two civilizations and a conflict between these two will be a civilizational conflict. Chinese Proxy Pakistan has been engaged by USA for good. Notwithstanding the Pakistani Army macho claims on its successes on Taliban and Taliban controlled areas, is Pakistan Vietnam in making. Wake up call for Pakistan fixated Indian myopic leaders and military generals that its time India looks at containing the real problem: China.

    India has no credible strategy in place to contain China. The current Congress leadership is more interested in keeping themselves in power and Sonia Gandhi and Rahul Gandhi have better relations with China than what India has. The fact is that, Indians have been living under the shadow of Chinese ballistic missiles positioned in Chinese occupied Tibet (COT) and live a borrowed life. There are no means to protecting ourselves and we have very little options to hurt China in mainland.More than Indian policies, the US policies have helped India to address our foreign policy problems. Former US President Bush had gifted us the nuclear deal and President Obama has tried to impress upon Pakistan that India is no threat. Former US President Bush had also proposed to make India as a counter weight to China. Now, many in India resented this.
    We live under the shadows of Chinese nuclear and missile threat. China has supplied nuclear bomb design, nuclear components and missiles among other things to Proxy Pakistan. It has tried to rally our neighbors against us. Contained and created difficulties for us diplomatically in world forums. The list of Chinese mechanisations goes on.

    Internally, Nehru-Gandhi family which ruled India for obnoxiously long years have been busy “managing” Indians than foreign threats. It holds true even today. Chinese have played their part well too. They disregard the “other” Indian leadership and court Nehru-Gandhi family. The Indian communists have been Pro China to such an extent that, they look anti-Indian. The Indian military (except navy) has not gone for incremental development and deployment of indigenous equipment compared to what Chinese Forces have done. This has brought us to a foreign dependence. If we buy foreign defence equipment, we experience reliability, legal and diplomatic issues, while Indian military leaders would not allow internal development. The problem has been compounded by the trade unions (mostly Communist controlled) who don’t allow to changes in quality military production set up and the communist want every deal with US and Israel canceled. As for the Indian right wingers go, they have a sound policy on international relations, but, they are communal in outlook and hurt common man with their fascist tendencies.

    On China front, India did take some steps militarily. This includes deploying Agni missiles on Chinese border, shifting Su-30 MKI to airfields facing China, sending naval ships to exercise with Japanese and funds for development of border with China to name major initiatives. Nevertheless, India lacks a composite strategy to engage China and whatever strategy exists today is merely reactionary.

    Look at India’s private sector. Indian private sector has competed against Chinese government based companies and bettered them. Chinese recognize the strength of Indian private sector. When a Chinese official comes to India, he wants to spend more time with Indian companies after finishing the diplomatic necessities with government. An Indian businessperson is more likely to be given visa in china than an Indian government official.

    China will attack India when others are busy and is advantageous for China. Will India ever attack china even when it feels advantageous?

    Second question is the location of Chinese threat. Chinese army is deployed on the higher ground and Indian Army is deployed on the lower ground. Chinese disadvantage of moving troops and equipment over the occupied Tibetan is overcome by feats in road construction, railway line and air strips. China also has built up vehicles/ carriers to move around at Tibet border, while Indian Army still depends largely upon mules. Daulat Beg Oldie (DBO), other airfields reactivated, current roads building program at Chinese border are meant to “keep an eye” on Chinese and have very less value when it comes to large-scale troop movements. Stationing SU-30 MKI at Chinese borders is the only credible defence on Chinese border, which we have seen lately. Does India have the border infrastructure at Chinese border?Third question is Chinese posses’ long-range artillery, which is not yet employed in decisive manner by India. China has deployed missiles in occupied Tibet and it can hit any part of India it wants. Indian on the other hand has just started building up offensive missile systems, which can harm Chinese at their main land. While Chinese will have no remorse to hit Indian populated centers, Chinese PLA can use Tibetan cities as shields. It is possible that Tibetans will rise in revolt, but it is anybody’s guess if china has not built it into calculation. There are fresh examples of how equipped are the Chinese to contain Tibetans. Indian ABM systems are quite a while away. Will India hurl missiles at Tibetan cities? Can India strike Chinese main land with as much damage that Chinese can inflict on India?

    The fourth question is formidable Chinese production units that can churn the required military wares in numbers in the event of war. Not just this, Chinese forces have been using and upgrading their indigenous equipment. On the other hand, Indian Armed forces, especially the Indian Army does not have such foresight and leadership for almost past 3 decades. India will have to import, non-suited equipment from overseas. This was demonstrated during kargil war.
    The fifth question is that Chinese can use nuclear weapons first and Chinese have the capability to withstand a nuclear strike and counter strike. Can India boast of such capabilities against the Chinese main land?

    The sixth question is that India and China has undefined borders and Tawang is hotly contested. Will India fight the border war on the Indian side of the territory or the territory occupied by the Chinese?

    The eighth question is the maturity of Chinese cyber warfare. We have allegedly seen them hacking Indian embassy PC’s. Have Indian cyber warfare team ever tested hacking Chinese networks?

    The ninth question is that Chinese trade flows via Indian Ocean. The Chinese are building Navy to operate in Indian Ocean. Will Indian Navy operate on east Chinese sea?

    The tenth reason is the Chinese diplomatic influence and they are a permanent 5 nation at UN. They can block any deal in UN, which concerns them. India does not. Can India walk out of UN, when Chinese have an upper hand there?

    The eleventh question is the Chinese ASAT test. China has tested its anti-satellite weapon India has not. Will India be able to destroy Chinese assets in space?

    The twelfth question is the Chinese economy and economic influence. Chinese economy can sustain a long war with India. Can Indian economy sustain it? Chinese economic power spans from Latin America to Africa. Even USA and Russia have Chinese as major trading partner. How much can India influence?

    The final question is Does India fully understands the Chinese threat.
     
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  3. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    How to contain China...

    First step is, getting Russia on your side. That is the biggest threat China has or will ever have. If India wants a containment of Chinese expansion that goes all across the North and Central Asia, becoming the ally of Russia is the only way. These billion dollar military deals are nice, but you have to do alot more. India has to become Russia's largest trade partner.. you have to soak up oil, gaz, weapons, heavy machine, energy exploration contracts, and let us build every nuklear plant India wants. Russia can import Indian goods and partnerships in joint projects all across the board. What the game India is playing now is offering little nuggets to US and Russia trying to walk the fence but let it be known, there will be no Hindi Amrikan bhai bhai when it comes to China. Amerika is already too connected to bail out now. Russia is signing deals with China left and right, India has to bail on Amerika and fight for the Russian support to overtake the confluence of Sino expansion. The days of Russian-Indian relations might be chilled at the moment, but it is not too late to take it out of the refrigerator. We are already seeing good progress.

    Second step, destabalise Tibet. If China wants to play hardball by supporting Maoist rebels, Pakistan terrorists, and building dams to drought India and Bangladesh... India needs to hit right back by starting a rebellion. With China fighting a counter-revolutionary war on the border, they will have little time to attack India.

    Third step, focus on Vietnam. With all the boundary disputes of their EZ and Spratly Islands, back up all their claims and send a carrier taskforce to support them. Vietnam can supply an excellent base of operations for Indian Naval activity in the S. China Sea.

    Fourth step, recognise Taiwan. Taiwan is pretty much all alone when it comes to facing down the dragon across the sea. Start working on inceasing Taiwan relations, form a military cooperation pact, and let China know their expansion can be checked.

    Last step, how to deal with Pakistan? The goal is to get China out which has always been allied with Pakistani military. Supporting US measures to get civilian countrol of the military and supporting that civilian government could go a long way to getting Chinese influence out of the picture. The key to Pakistan is to get the Army to stop the use of Jihadis as foreign policy, only way is for the civilian government to actually have more political power than the military. Whatever India can do to support that... do it.
     
  4. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    russian help

    i don agree with u to a certain extent first why or how would would russia help india to contain china.china provides bulk of their military contracts to russians. i agree u on the trade relations between india and russian should be expand. presently it is limlted to gov-gov business .also agreed on indo-american bhai -bhai relationship . i don`t think we are going to have more than b2b relationship in naer future , i don`t know about long future and about pakistan only god can ans it
     
  5. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    Sino military purchase from Russia are down to $1 billion a year... mostly jet engines and spare parts. We sell more to Venezuela now. The future of Russain exports are India, ME, N. Afrika, SEA, S. Europe and Latin Amerika. China has no interest in continuing to purchase from us, they only do so out of necessity.

    Russia would contain China by becoming military and financial allies of New Delhi. If China did something against India, like invade LOC, the Indians would be able to put enough pressure on us to do something, like cut off energy supplies, mass troops along the border, or even blockade Chinese shipping. With an Indo-Russian alliance in Central Asia, we could curtail Chinese expansion into the resources of the area and exploit them ourselves. Just think about building direct pipelines and railways from India to Russia. Indian goods can reach Europe at a 25% savings in shipping cost, Russian energy can flow to build Indian economy. With us kicking Chinese expansion out, it will be India who grows while China withers. All you have to do is take POK.
     
  6. qilaotou

    qilaotou Regular Member

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    India can certainly try to contain China. It'd be really fun to watch how things come out. With help of Russia? I doubt it. As long as Russia shows some hawkish attitude US will be at their throat. Besides Russia presently only has nukes and resources to entertain others.

    Russian energy supply has higher production cost than that of other countries. If market price goes down Russia will be hit first. If India reduces its weapons procurement from Russia it will dry out the Russian defence industry.
     
  7. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    russians help in controlling china

    ok good but can tell what about SCO and about pipelines it wont easy + POK coming in between plus indo -russian business is limited to G2G. so i highly dout whether russians would be helpful or in case any other country
     
  8. Vladimir79

    Vladimir79 Defence Professionals Defence Professionals

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    There are only three entities that can squeeze China: USA, EU, and soon Russia. USA and EU won't do jack for you. Russia holds the key to containing Chinese expansion in Central Asia and makes them dependent on energy. If India takes POK then we can open up land routes that make all trade possible by reducing shipping cost. It will be a new Silk Road. SCO would be irrelavent if India took China's place. India is the one not willing to pick allies.
     
  9. badguy2000

    badguy2000 Respected Member Senior Member

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    I think the title is not conform the current global situation sooooo much...
    India is not in the postion to contain china.
    the right title should be :

    "can USA contain China?"
     
  10. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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  11. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Why must we contain China?

    The Tibetan and the Uighurs are doing it already!
     
  12. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yes, by "peaceful" protest. You forget one thing, CCP is not a "democratic" power. So, in order to do a better job, they need india's help.
     
  13. blade

    blade Regular Member

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    yes military containment of china is certainly possile in a limited war picture where huge mechanised thurst is not possible from chinese side due the terrain in the border.How india copes will depend more on the stock of ammunition on indian side than the exact quality and quantity of the equipments available with IA. From 2014 onward things will dramatically change in indian favor and it will only be about a conventional deterrence toward china. In forseeable future india will never have a overall conventional edge over china or even anywhere near to that but will certainly pose a very very dengerous threat to them when
    any diabolic design of chinese counterpert will turn out to be a much less profitable one.1/2=2/4=4/8= ............... dosnt work in military picture ...its always 1/2>2/4>4/8 ......so the effective india china gap will continue to reduce drastically but with india almost never taking over china without something very drastic taking place in economic or geopolitical front.
     
  14. shotgunner

    shotgunner Regular Member

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    China's economy is way ahead of India, don't flatter or delude yourself.

    2004 Rank? Wht not use last century's data like 1962 Rank?

    Anyway, according to that, the title should be "Can Finland contain US", "Can Egypt contain China" or "Can India contain Ethiopia", ...
     
  15. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    the numbers are from 2008
     
  16. Indianrabbit

    Indianrabbit Regular Member

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    Do we really require to contain China? We should have our plan defensive against China. I do not understand what is wrong with China. Why is Chinese getting aggressive towards India? Is it because success has gone into their heads. I think conflict with China is neither in interest of China not India. Why can't we be better neighbor. I had different feelings about Chinese people, I was not knowing they were aggressive people who will go mad when they get power.
     
  17. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Really?

    Who has asked India to help China? Hu or Who?

    That will be interesting to know.

    Indeed, China is not a democratic nation. It is a Communist totalitarian nation and all know that including the Mainland Chinese.

    Actually, China is a hegemonic power. It wants to be the leading power in Asia and also the world. That is a very natural desire and one cannot find fault in such a desire.

    India is her challenger in Asia. Therefore, India has to be contained. To do so, China has to prove herself militarily, economically and politically.

    Militarily she proved it so in 1962, but India woke up and is a challenge today that she cannot overlook. Yet, without going to war, China requires to have the upper hand and hence the incursions and other militarily provocative actions so that the rest of Asia realises China's military ascendancy. This is more important for China, ever since her Vietnam adventure, where a small country made China flee and lick her wounds. Dalai Lama's influence in Tibet is a huge worry for China and the AQ threat in Xinjiang has got China in a tizzy.

    Politically, China cannot match since she is a totalitarian Communist state that has no democracy; and democracy is the powerhouse of the world. Her autocratic and brutal repression in Tibet and Xinjiang has put her in the international doghouse.

    Economically, China has proved herself way ahead of India and her cheap goods command the world market, notwithstanding the shoddy manufacture.
     
  18. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Sorry, you misunderstand.

    I mean these tibeten or uighur need india's help.
     
  19. blade

    blade Regular Member

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    "Indianrabbit: Do we really require to contain China? We should have our plan defensive against China. I do not understand what is wrong with China. Why is Chinese getting aggressive towards India? Is it because success has gone into their heads. I think conflict with China is neither in interest of China not India. Why can't we be better neighbor. I had different feelings about Chinese people, I was not knowing they were aggressive people who will go mad when they get power."
     
  20. johnee

    johnee Elite Member Elite Member

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    We must contain China, for they dont think two tigers can live on a same mountain. So, China will not want any other power in its neighbourhood. So, its either us or them. Hence, we need to contain them. But we cant do so from outside. Not just us, even US would struggle to do so from outside(assuming they want to contain China, which is not a natural assumption these days!). China's influence, economy and military cannot be contained from outside, key lies inside. The biggest weakness of China is that it is not a democracy. There are internal discords that are kept down with an iron fist. Even the han, will tolerate commies till they have economic upsurge. With the current recession, the test for commie regime has started, it will be interesting to see how they tackle it!

    There is a suggestion that the commies could wage a war against India to divert the domestic and international attention away from internal discords. It could be seen by the commies as a 'two birds with one stone', for that kind of war would also serve the purpose of 'teaching a lesson' to India.

    So, if we want to contain China then the handle for us is the internal dissensions within China. The obvious handles are Tibet and Taiwan and recently Ulighurs. These need to be exploited to contain China...
     
  21. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    We are questioning if we should contain China, while China has answered that for us wether we contain China or not they definetly want to contain us. Starting from the 1950's with the annexation of Tibet, then the 1962 war to nuclear proliferation to Pakistan to voting for terrorists in UNSC,to Arunachal border issues to the water theft from damming the Brahmaputra, to the IRBM's and DF-31's pointed at Delhi from Tibet and Beyond to the string of pearls to encircle India in the Indian ocean. We are still asking this question which should have been answered 5 decades ago, by not answering these questions 5 decades ago China has moved forward in containing India using proxies like pakistan and issues where they vote against India in UNSC to separate visas for Kashmir,now we are forced to answer these questions that we ignored for 5 decades because now they threaten national security and integrity of the nation.
     

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