Can China and Pakistan launch a Kargil-like foray?

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Galaxy, Oct 15, 2011.

  1. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Can China and Pakistan launch a Kargil-like foray?


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    Army chief General V K Singh has spoken recently of Chinese troops in Pakistan occupied Kashmir.

    The impending American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the US-Pakistan divorce has the potential to destabilise the region.

    China may become more assertive in South Asia, feels Colonel Anil Athale (retd).

    Next year will mark 50 years since China taught a military lesson to India. Will history repeat itself after 50 years?

    The article by Admiral Arun Prakash (retd), the former chief of the naval staff -- India must pause before venturing into choppy waters, on Rediff.com -- seems to provide timely caution.

    One is referring here to the Indian decision to explore for oil in cooperation with Vietnam despite Chinese objections. There is no doubt that legally India is right and the Chinese demand absurd.

    At another level it can also be seen as a clear 'tit for tat' snub to China that has ignored Indian objections to its projects in Pakistan-occupied Kashmir. Unfortunately, such issues are seldom decided on legality and it is the national power projection capability that is the deciding factor and not some articles of a UN convention.

    What Admiral Prakash seems to suggest is that the South China Sea is not an appropriate theatre for India to flex its naval muscle.

    The sudden burst of clarity from our foreign minister is rather curious. This tough stand comes against the backdrop of a rather tepid response to the Chinese intrusions in Ladakh, recently acknowledged by the defence minister himself.
     
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  3. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    Memories of 1962


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    These episodes brings back the memories of 49 years ago and the disastrous 'forward policy' that India launched to counter Chinese pinpricks and occupation of Aksai Chin.

    A full two years before the Chinese attack in 1962, the Indian Army's Western Command based in Shimla had run a two-day exercise 'Sheel' on October 15 and 16, 1960.

    The conclusion was that in the prevailing situation where the Indians were heavily outnumbered in Ladakh, it would be advisable to avoid a clash with the Chinese till such time as we built up our strength.

    But the government of the day, under the influence of General B M Kaul and Jawharlal Nehru's belief that Chinese would never attack India, pushed on with the 'forward policy' of establishing militarily unviable posts to establish 'legal' claim to Aksai Chin.

    When the Chinese began to react violently to these moves, a hare-brained scheme was proposed to open a new front in Tawang, Arunachal Pradesh.

    The two areas are a good 1,000 kilometres apart and India was in no position to launch an offensive action across the McMohan line. But such was the hold of wishful thinking and un-professional soldiers over Delhi that we went on with this madness.

    The rest is history and India suffered a terrible blow in the Tawang sector.
     
  4. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    India faces a two-pronged threat in the east

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    The situation of Indian forces is far better in Arunachal Pradesh today -- that is an undeniable fact. But on the other hand, with Chinese forces now present in strength in the Pakistan-occupied areas of Gilgit and Hunza, we may well face a two-pronged threat in a future conflict in Ladakh.

    However, all these moves and counter-moves raise a larger question of Chinese intentions. Is it that China wishes to announce its arrival as a 'military superpower' by engendering a conflict with India?

    The precedent is the way China used the 2008 Olympics to signal its arrival as an economic superpower (India achieved the exact opposite with its shabby conduct and scams associated with the Commonwealth Games).

    Is China looking to provoke India militarily in Ladakh so as to provide a 'casus belli' to launch a Kargil-type adventure against India?

    From a purely Chinese perspective, it does look an attractive option. In 1962, due to American pressure, Pakistan was restrained from interfering.

    However, with US-Pakistan relations at an all time low, this is unlikely. What is more likely is that Pakistan will activate its proxies within Kashmir to make things as difficult as possible for India.

    The 'two front' scenario that many in India have talked about may actually fructify.
     
  5. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    China could launch a foray in Ladakh, Pakistan in Leh

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    With India's military modernisation in limbo for several years, China certainly has the capability to launch a limited foray in Ladakh.

    In combination with Pakistan it could carry out a limited offensive in the direction of Leh. India has only a defensive option.

    This will achieve several Chinese objectives:

    -Assure Pakistan that it can rely on China against India. By keeping India occupied, it will also facilitate the Pakistani foray into Afghanistan in the wake of the American withdrawal.

    -Warn the US that it will defend its interests militarily.

    -Downsize India in the eyes of South East Asian nations.

    -Encourage India's smaller neighbours to resist Indian pre-eminence.
     
  6. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    China wants to be more assertive in South Asia


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    The security situation in the region is in state of flux.

    The impending American withdrawal from Afghanistan and the US-Pakistan divorce has potential to destabilise the region.

    China appears to be positioning itself to be more assertive in South Asia.

    It is noteworthy that even in 1962, the Chinese very cleverly coordinated their offensive against India with the Cuban Missile Crisis between the US and the erstwhile Soviet Union. The timing may well be decided by the events in Afghanistan next year.

    What appears to be happening now are the preliminary moves to create a 'casus belli' for future action. Indian moves in Vietnam cannot be seen in isolation from the American moves for military containment of China, a long-term American goal.

    On the economic front, the US, and to some extent India, seem to favour a policy of engaging with China. This works well in case of the US since it enjoys military superiority, but in case of militarily 'anemic' India, this is an invitation for disaster.

    Like during the Nehru era, diplomacy not backed by force is bound to boomerang on us.

    The biggest constraining factor for the Chinese, however, is the attitude of the Americans. In all likelihood, a military foray by China will bring India closer to the US, an outcome that may go against long-term Chinese interests.

    This author had interacted with the Chinese in 2006. Even at that time, the Chinese were obsessed with finding out the
     
  7. Galaxy

    Galaxy Elite Member Elite Member

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    India needs to urgently modernise its military and remain vigilant


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    China may well have come to the conclusion that irrespective of what it does, India is getting closer to the US, thus removing the restraint on military action.

    China may also well bank on the pro-China/non-aligned lobby in India to prevent such an outcome.

    But whichever scenario may materialise, the need for India to urgently modernise its military and remain vigilant is paramount. Unless we wish to suffer another 1962 and confess that we were living in a make-believe world!

    One interesting possibility is that even without overt US help, India holds its own and gives China a bloody nose like the Vietnamese did in 1979.

    In that eventuality, the Chinese would emerge a loser on all counts. But China may well be banking on the current political disarray in India as well as the effect on the Indian armed forces of a prolonged neglect of modernisation of weapons, especially the artillery.

    Colonel (Dr) Anil Athale (retd) is coordinator of the Pune-based think-tank Inpad. He is a former joint director and head of the War Studies division at the defence ministry and co-author of the official history of the India-China conflict of 1962.


    REDIFF
     
  8. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    You know what, if the chinis who have entrenched themselves in GB actually start a war and india choses to escalate the war along IB with pak and that goes nuclear with Pak using it's Nasr or something, india will gave an excuse to nuke China itself in retaliation as China was part of the forces that attacked india in the first place. Indian nuke deterrence will make sure China does not join hands with the Pakis in another Kargil. I am sure if Pakis do that again, india will not fight the war with one hand tied behind the back by not crossing LoC. This time we will cross the IB.
     
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  9. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I want to mention a few points and will borrow one point that Yusuf made above:
    • If Pakistan nukes India, then India will gave an excuse to nuke PRC itself in retaliation as PRC was part of the forces that attacked India in the first place. Indian nuke deterrence will make sure PRC does not join hands with the Pakis in another Kargil.
    • PRC does not want to start a war with India at this point. They want (1) access to the Arabian Sea (2) energy security.
    • Do not fall for photo ops. While PLA soldiers are well decked up at the photos, in real life, they are much less glamorous. Don't believe me? Cool, I will post videos pretty soon and you can see it with your own eyes.
    • Stepping into Gilgit-Baltistan and then invading India is not going to be as easy as invading from the LoC across Aksai Chin. Do not forget that the Khunjerab pass can be easily blocked and in the event Pakistan gets bogged down in the plains of Punjab, PLA garrisons in Gilgit-Baltistan could find an escape route along the Karakoram HWY very difficult.
     
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  10. SpArK

    SpArK SORCERER Senior Member

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    Ladakh-Leh region remains unfortified. whatever they need to do , they need to do ASAP.

    Once the airfields are modernised its goodbye..

    All they can do is build up structures inside Gigit_b areas and live in fear of getting blown up by terroroonies.
     
  11. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    + adding points to what pmaitra already added

    Lets not forget China's core interests here, its Taiwan and SCS. So i dont think they'd do a kargil before Taiwan.

    If they do invade Taiwan, world will not accept China's hostility regardless of the outcome, and as we know they dont have too many friends.

    They already have a route to middle east through POK which we must not allow them to build.
     
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  12. SpArK

    SpArK SORCERER Senior Member

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  13. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    ^^

    Now I am worried. I hope Vietnam does not play both sides and milk both sides for their own benefit. They are known to be pragmatic people.
     
  14. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    chinis cant fight.

    If govt gives the army a free hand then chinis will be running for shelter.
     
  15. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    so, nothing to worry about then.
     
  16. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    What a stupid article! :rofl::rofl:

    --

    Don't we've Cold Start to deal with this already?
     
    Last edited: Oct 15, 2011
  17. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    of course there is something to worry about and they are first our govt and second your nukes.

    if our govt grew a pair and nukes were taken out of the equation then chini army will be given such a thrashing that they will never forget.
     
  18. Tianshan

    Tianshan Regular Member

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    i believe you strongly, and we would never dare to fight you.

    as your friend said, we are weak an spineless. so nothing to worry about sir.
     
  19. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    For that, we need to first get rid of this government. Because let's face it, this government will NEVER give the military free hand unlike PLA which gets its own due of freedom from CCP.
     
  20. nitesh

    nitesh Mob Control Manager Stars and Ambassadors

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    What is new, Chinese attacked us in Kargil times too, only to learn their lesson

    India Reactivates Air Base Close to China in Kashmir | News | English

     

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