Can BJP break the Delhi stalemate? Data shows it won by strong margin

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by parijataka, Dec 12, 2013.

  1. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Scenario in case re-elections are called for in Delhi.

    Can BJP break the Delhi stalemate? Figures show saffron party won its seats by strong margins and AAP by slim ones

    Even as the stalemate in Delhi continues with both the BJP and AAP refusing to stake a claim to forming the government, the latter's confidence at the possibility of a re-poll is certainly misplaced. Going by the average margin of defeat at all the 70 seats, the BJP seems to be in a much stronger position. The seats where the BJP has won have been claimed with huge margins and the seats that they have failed to garner have been lost by small margins. But the scenario for the AAP is exactly the opposite. In the top 10 seats of the Delhi Assembly, seven have been won by AAP, two by the BJP and one by others. The margin for the seats won by AAP is very slim.

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    The BJP winner and AAP runner-up average on 18 of the 70 seats is 10,213 votes, while the AAP winner and BJP runner-up average on 23 of the seats is just 6,721 votes.
    Also, the Congress might have won just eight seats, but the seats where the Congress candidates have emerged as runners-up, the vote share of the party is hardly three to four per cent less than AAP. So, it is premature to say the Congress is likely to face a complete wash-out in the scenario of re-polls.
    Hence, if there is a re-election and the wave this time is against AAP, the results for them could be disastrous. The basic problem here is that the AAP and BJP have read the public mandate erroneously.
    On the issue of the margin of seats, while AAP and BJP split the anti-incumbency votes between them, AAP now says it is likely to get more votes in the re-polls since many supporters who did not vote for the party as they underestimated its prospects, might vote for AAP now.

    Similarly, the BJP says since it has emerged as the single largest party, more people will be encouraged to vote for the party in the re-elections. Based on the above arguments, the Congress might as well hope to garner votes out of its sympathisers.
    It is clear that the mandate in Delhi is an anti-Congress one. The BJP has emerged as the single largest party, and AAP has made a spectacular debut. However, AAP is crediting its victory to an anti-Congress as well as an anti-BJP mandate, which is wrong, for the BJP as it wasn't even in power in Delhi. AAP by its own admission has said a previous survey revealed that many of its supporters wished to see Narendra Modi as prime minister in 2014.

    The voters wished for a non-Congress government in Delhi, and the AAP and BJP must now come together. Arvind Kejriwal could negotiate the post of chief minister with BJP's Harsh Vardhan, or even if AAP remains in Opposition, why can't it provide issue-based support to the BJP and secure some Cabinet seats? Why can't they divide the ministries among themselves and compete with each other on good governance?
    In Germany, Angela Merkel had reached out to the Opposition to form the coalition in September this year. The same practice is prevalent in the United Kingdom. So why is AAP refusing to form an anti-Congress government and instead burdening the state with re-elections?
     
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  3. parijataka

    parijataka Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Can BJP break the Delhi stalemate? Data shows it won by strong mar

    contd.

    BJP fears Congress may create early polls scenario

    In front of the cameras they might be saying 'pehle aap' but behind the scenes, BJP leaders are a worried lot.

    Senior BJP leaders are concerned that the Congress could create conditions which may lead to the calling of early elections in Delhi in February-March, ahead of the general elections.

    The BJP leadership fears that if Assembly elections are advanced then there is a real possibility of the AAP forming the next government in the Capital.
    The BJP feels that the Congress knows it is on the way out and might help the AAP come to power in Delhi in a bid to show that there is no pro-Modi wave in the country.

    BJP's Delhi in-charge Nitin Gadkari said the BJP wants the AAP to form the next government with Congress support.

    "We welcome the statement of the Congress spokesperson that the Congress is prepared to support the AAP government from the outside. The BJP will back such an attempt wholeheartedly and play the role of a responsible opposition."

    Gadkari also said the BJP is prepared to consider supporting a government of the AAP in case Arvind Kejriwal asks the party for support.

    There is a section in the Delhi BJP that feels that the BJP should attempt to form the next government. But Narendra Modi is dead set opposed to such a possibility.

    The BJP's PM candidate flew down to Delhi on Tuesday evening for a meeting with the party top brass. Sources in the party said Modi is concerned that any attempt to cobble together a majority in Delhi will mar the credibility of Modi's campaign ahead of the general elections.

    "Since Vajpayee's time, the BJP has desisted from forming governments by wrong means. The people of Delhi have not given us a majority, we do not have the numbers so there is no possibility of the BJP forming the government on its own," said Gadkari.

    The BJP wants to ward off the possibility of early Assembly polls as the party believes it stands a much better chance of countering the Kejriwal effect since Modi will be a factor in the general elections.

    Kejriwal played the Purvanchal card well

    They may be the new kid on the block, but their reading of the voters' mindset has left the BJP and Congress leaders, veterans in the poll game, stumped.

    A careful examination reveals that while AAP played it smart by fielding candidates in certain constituencies where the community vote was a deciding factor, the BJP and the Congress failed to do the same.

    For instance, in Purvanchali-dominated constituencies, the community was not well represented by both the BJP and the Congress and as a result, the AAP managed to run away with more than what they had bargained for.

    "The BJP fielded four Purvanchali candidates and the Congress just the one. There were 30 constituencies where the Purvanchali votes were the deciding factor and neither of the veteran parties thought of exploiting that. I strongly feel that if either party had fielded more candidates from the Purvanchal community, the results of this election would have been different," Bhojpuri Samaj president Ajit Dubey said.
     
  4. Hari Sud

    Hari Sud Senior Member Senior Member

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    Re: Can BJP break the Delhi stalemate? Data shows it won by strong mar

    Analyse it as much as you want, but AAP is here to stay and Congress is out for next ten years. We have to thank the Commonwealth Games.

    The games were great. But it threw up hated politician as organizers and public hate grew further even when mishandling and corruption was discovered.

    Where did Shiela Dixit fitted into it?

    She was the Chief Minister and could not co-ordinate well and also could not keep these corrupt politician under control.

    She has not done well in forging good relations with the organization but her own faults were that as a weak leader, nobody was listening to her.

    The foreign press had the wind of this and used every possible story to undermine the organization behind the game. It was an international disaster in public relations.

    I believe no leader should last beyond two terms. She lasted three terms and everything possibly which could go wrong went wrong in Delhi in the last five years. May another stronger personality could have eliminated these issues.

    Yes, a bigger issue which was at play was the Congress organizational leadership had termed greedy. They wanted money out of every contract either for games or for civil works in Delhi. Uncontrolled they were going about collecting money and passing it on the party. That is where Aam Adami Party found its support. Although the Indian media and especially the media in Delhi knew about it but not talking about it. That became the strength of Anna Hazaare and Arvind Kejriwal.

    Now Shiela Dixit had to loose and loose big.
     

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