Calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff

Discussion in 'Defence & Strategic Issues' started by Yusuf, Oct 8, 2013.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Wrote this on my blog Calling Pakistan’s nuclear bluff | Sarvatra Vijay

    Zulfiqar Ali Bhutto vowed to eat grass but make nuclear weapons. In China,Pak found a “friend” wiling to provide designs of CHIC-4 and in AQ Khan Pakistan found someone who could use any means to get supplies to make facilities to produce enriched Uranium.

    By mid 1980s, Pakistan was thought to have a working bomb and in no uncertain terms let India know that it will use it if it had to. The 1998 Indian nuclear test provided Pak an opportunity to overtly go nuclear and test some off the shelf bombs it had.

    Soon after in 1999 India and Pakistan fought a war under a nuclear overhang. Pakistan intruded into India along the LC. India had to evict them but the orders from the civilian government of India were clear. No crossing the LC as India didn’t war to “escalate” the war. It would have been easier for Indian troops to cross the LC, cut off the supply lines of Pak forces and also utilize the more favorable topography that existed on the other side. But Indian forces were forced to fight with one arm tied behind this backs. The reason was apparent. India didn’t want to escalate the conflict which could take a nuclear dimension.

    In 2001,the symbol of Indian democracy, its Parliament was attacked by Pak sponsored terrorists. India amassed troops in a laborious one month period. Indian troops stayed put for nearly a year but Indian government could not take the next step which was to punish Pakistan for its misdeeds.

    In 2008 Pakistan sponsored terrorists once again undertook an audacious attack on India when they attacked Mumbai on 26/11. Once again despite the blatant aggression and proof of involvement of Pakistani state agencies in the attack, India chose to maintain “restraint” and chose to undertake dossier diplomacy rather than punish Pakistan. The reason once again was clear. No escalation as it could lead to a nuclear showdown.

    Pakistan over the years has continuously displayed the willingness to use nuclear weapons and came up with a so called low threshold doctrine. This has successfully worked for it as no Indian leader has had the courage to call this bluff and India continues to suffer from Pak sponsored terror without any retribution or any attempt by India to raise the costs for Pakistan.

    Let us take a look at Pakistan’s nuclear weapons and its delivery platforms. Pakistan’s major inventory consists of fission weapons based on early Chinese designs. Heavy in weight requiring missiles that have high payload capacity for a single warhead. The yield of these warheads are around 10KT which is less than the atomic bombs dropped on Japan. Pakistan is now working towards a plutonium based warhead again with Chinese assistance in making the reactors.

    Pakistan developed the Ghauri range of liquid fueled missiles whose accuracy,reliability is a suspect. The last test of the Ghauri failed miserably.

    It is said that when Musharraf ordered the missiles to be readied during Kargil war, he was told that the reliability of the missiles was questionable. Over the years, Pakistan has routinely tested missiles and called them a success. Many in the know there are now questioning the success of those tests.

    Pakistan has been developing a solid fueled Shaheen missile whose reliability will remain a suspect given the fact that Pakistan has routinely lied to its people.

    Pakistan is now talking about making tactical nukes to be mounted on a 60kms range Nasr missile. This is in response to India devising the Cold Start military doctrine which is doctrined to fight a war under the perceived Pakistani nuclear threshold.

    Over the last one year, Pakistan has steadily increased terror activities against India. Border and ceasefire violations. It has used its Border Action Team (BAT) to cross the LC and behead Indian soldiers. As 2014 comes with the war in Afghanistan drawing to a close for the US and the pull out starts, India can expect the Pakistanis to up the ante without the fear of Indian retaliation as it continues to brandish its nukes.

    So what are the option for India? Call Pakistan’s bluff that allows it to blackmail India into not acting.

    Why do I call it a bluff?

    Pakistan lacks depth owing to its geography. Its western region is unstable where it does not have any semblance of sovereignty. It certainly can’t stock its nukes there or its missiles. Similarly it has trouble in Balochistan where the Baloch routinely blow up gas pipelines and kill Pak soldiers.

    That leaves Pakistan with just the Sindh and Punjab provinces. When you see the distance from Indian borders, its all within 200 kms. It means the area where the missiles,nuclear components are in is within target of India’s weaponry including fighter aircrafts.

    Pakistan keeps its nuclear weapons in component form. Which means the warheads are not mated with the missiles and also the nuclear core and trigger is separated. This prevents any unauthorized use and also secures the nukes from a first strike. India also adopts the same system.

    Any move to launch nukes at India will require Pak to assemble its nukes, mate it with the missile and then launch. Now its major inventory of missiles is the liquid propelled Ghauri. Liquid fueled missiles require time to fuel unlike solid fueled missiles which can be launched within minutes. Given this fact, India using intelligence assets, spy satellites can detect preparations for any launch. India can counter this by using its own missiles like the cruise missile Brahmos that has a 300 kms range to take out the missiles and the launch platform. India can also use its superior Su30 MKIs to take out with precision any such target in Pakistan. What is obviously needed is a dedicated satellite to keep constant surveillance of Pakistan as well as HUMINT working in sync with the armed forces to take action against any threat of launch of nukes by Pakistan.

    Nasr the new 60 kms range missile of Pakistan that will have tactical nukes, will require a doctrinal change. Pakistan will have to mate and keep the missiles ready. These missiles will have to be very close to the border putting it in direct firing line of Indian Arty, Fighter aircrafts and cruise missiles. The positions of these missiles will be known to India through its intelligence network making it easier to strike to take out the missiles,its launchers and its nuclear warheads using conventional weapons.

    At home,India is close to operationalizing the anti ballistic missile system or ABM that can take down a Ghauri or Shaheen range missile.

    Pakistan has very “rationally” used the tactic of irrationality about its nukes to scare India into not acting to protect itself against repeated Pakistani transgressions. That Pakistan moved to making tactical nukes to stop Indian forces shows they are more bothered about losing territory let alone get glassed by a counter Indian nuclear strike in case Pakistan strikes first. One of the other reasons why Pakistan makes and brandishes its nukes is to make the international community take care of it and not allow it to fail. Again, the nukes are used by Pakistan to play on the mind of the west with the threat of nukes falling into Jihadi hands if Pakistan collapses.

    The nuclear weapons of Pakistan are a means to blackmail India and the world at large to take care of Pakistan while it continues with its rogue ways. In my opinion,no General in Pakistan will press the nuclear trigger that will invite total destruction. The sooner India realizes this and add to it how Indian forces can strike to take out Pak missiles before they launch in the event that they decide to launch, India will be able to devise plans to punish Pakistan for its misdeeds. If not, we will keep facing repeated violation of our borders, killing of our soldiers,citizens without them suffering any consequences for it. Yes there are certain risks associated with it, but given the facts I’ve stated above,India can make Pakistan pay without worrying about its nukes.

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    October 6, 20131 Reply
     
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  3. dhananjay1

    dhananjay1 Regular Member

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    The problem is not Pakistan's nuclear weapons. The problem is a lack of any coherent Indian policy towards Pakistan. Indian politicians have always adopted a policy of appeasement towards Pakistan to get 'approval' of the world powers. This policy is the continuation of slavish post colonial attitude adopted by different Indian governments since 1947. They feel that they need some sort of thumbs up by the west to take any action. They just don't understand that to beg is to be treated like a beggar. Kill 10 Pakistani soldiers for every Indian life lost and then ask Pakistan to come to the peace talks. Language of power is the only ultimate language, if Indians are not ready to wield it then they should be ready for whatever Pakistan dishes out.
     
  4. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Actually the certificate of being secular is issued in Pakistan for Indian politicians. Pakistan even today does not have a reliable nuke deployment system except the few F-16s. making a missile and making it carry the nuke with heat shield and triggering mechanism is too complicated for Pakistan. China has supplied them with the complete missiles and not the tech. had chinese given them the tech, Pak wud not have faced problems and launch failures.
    It is high time we called their bluff and sent them a clear message that we too have nukes and very accurate missiles to launch them. Let us see how Pak behaves after that.
     
  5. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    Doesn't matter if Chinese give them the tech. The point is that they have the missiles to deliver the nuke and they are accurate enough to hit some india cities. Can you call that bluffing? I don't think so.

    This message has been sent for decades and Pakistan's reponse is: we have the nuke and we will use it if we are cornered. Now, to me, it looks like that both sides understand each other very well. Of course, you can go ahead to prove your point by risking millions of indian's lives.
     
  6. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Seems like the Chinese are more defensive of pakistani nukes then pakistani's.
     
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  7. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Adding a communal touch here is not going to serve any purpose. Vajpayee did pappi jhappi with Nawaz sharief. Kargil,Parl attack followed by Op Parakram happened during NDA. We were deterred by paki nukes even then.

    Fear of nukes or the threat reckless use of it has got ingrained in the minds of policymakers. We need to get that out. When the time comes, they won't press the trigger.
     
  8. rvjpheonix

    rvjpheonix Regular Member

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    Pakistan is a country which more or less works on aids from other countries. They just can't go for a nuclear strike against India. All countries will distance themselves away from them and might prompt international military action and nit to forget that they won't survive a second strike from us. But we just be careful to not escalateyhe situation and act in a aggressive way only if there is a serious enough provocation. Something of the kind of kargil. If they strike us in a nuclear attack even.China will.br forced to ditanve itself away from them.
     
  9. rvjpheonix

    rvjpheonix Regular Member

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    Though I won't make the mistake of relying on their missile systems flaws. However flawed they might be I would want to rely on our countermeasures. That is the reason the ABM shield is so important for us. It takes the bite out of their so called missiles. But my doubt is whether our missile shield will be able.to intercept their longest range missiles.what is the longest range that our planned AAD and PAD can take out? Is it enough against Pakistan?
     
  10. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    Millions of Indian, Pakistan and Chinese lives were put on risk the day Chinese decided to give Pak the nuke bomb. Do you think that you guys are safe from Indian Nukes? try it and you will see the result.
    Regarding Pakistan, They have only one agenda very well known to India-Finish India. In this backdrop, we now need to change our mindset to become-Finish Pakistan. Than the real game will start.
     
  11. nirranj

    nirranj Regular Member

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    The best way to handle Pakistani's is to make them bleed. Giving Indian Soldiers the freedom to retaliate to Pakistani ceasefire violations will be the first step. Imposing Sanctions on essential services will do the rest. We need to be strong If we want to deal with them. If I have my way, I will ask the Navy to enforce a Blockade. Making them to suffer will help to deal with them.

    I wont mind If America opposes a blockade. America has to choose between India and Pakistan. There are no bystanders in War.
     
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  12. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Pakistani nor chinese have the fissile material to carry out a tit for tat nuclear war.
     
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  13. BangersAndMash

    BangersAndMash Regular Member

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    I don't believe pakistan has the fastest growing nuke arsenal in the world, nor do I believe pakistan has over 100 nukes, they certainly do not have more nuke warheads then India, if anyone thinks otherwise, you are a gullible fool.

    India should send a strong message to China that puts the fear of god into them, that if pakis nuke India, India will unleash hundreds of nuke warheads at every Chinese city - this MUST be done, the F-ing Chinese must know that they will pay dearly for irresponsibly giving a schizo mental country nukes.

    Inshallah, I will live to see the day pakistan is smashed into pieces.
     
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  14. SamwiseTheBrave

    SamwiseTheBrave Regular Member

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    and what exactly will the P5 be doing when a rogue state like Pakistan presumes to use nukes ? will they sit by idly twiddling their thumbs ? the use of even chemical weapons, forget nukes, by any country other than the P5 means an instant death warrant for the aggressor nation. China provides "covering fire" to buttress paki perception of "irrational,mad states" so its about time that we also called the chinese bluff, alongwith the paki bluff, which "coincidentally" also happens to be the NoKo bluff against south korea.
     
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  15. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    No, Millions of indians lives were already put on the line when India decided to pursue the nuke, which leave Pakstan no choice but seeking the nuke too. No one has ever threaten India with nuke, neither US/USSR, nor China. India wants it simply because indian wants to be a great power.

    I don't think we are safe from Indian nukes! Only fools can think others are bluffing when you know they have the ability.

    Regarding Pakistan, their only agenda is"surviving under India's overwhelming advantage"! The game is already going on for decades: India has been trying to get ride of Pakistan's threat from its back and others countries just make sure it cann't archive that.
    Thanks to nukes, India can't finish Pakistan without hurting itself badly.
     
  16. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    Yep. India got nukes out of choice; Pakistan acquired nukes out of necessity.

    http://nationalinterest.org/commentary/indias-nuclear-blunder-8946
     
  17. no smoking

    no smoking Senior Member Senior Member

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    In the eyes of P5, India is not different from Pakistan on nukes!

    Of course, you can call anyone bluffing since it is quite safe sitting in front of your screen.
     
  18. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    We have been threatened by usa. And china got it so we had to get it to secure ourselves because we already knew you were good at back stabbing. If we wouldn't have gotten it then china would have still gifted nukes to pakistan and they would have started another war with us and used nukes when they would be about to lose conventionally.
     
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  19. The Messiah

    The Messiah Bow Before Me! Elite Member

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    Political purpose will be served by adding a touch of communalism.
     
  20. t_co

    t_co Senior Member Senior Member

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    So what would China do? Try to disarm Pakistan? Restrain it?

    China can't even restrain North Korea - a country that literally depends on China to eat - so why do you think China could restrain Pakistan?

    And even if China could, what makes you think China would knuckle under such a threat instead of accelerating BMD and giving Pakistan a few tons of plutonium, advanced warhead designs, and third-generation ballistic missiles?

    After all, China knows that if it really gets dragged into a free-for-all between Pakistan and India, it can lay waste to India while suffering the loss of maybe 5-10 cities. It's army could then invade India while the IA was reeling from mass nuclear bombardment and dealing with Pakistan.

    And what's more, not only does China know this - but Pakistan knows this as well. Pakistan then knows that, thanks to India's idiotic policy of making China a nuclear target in response to Pakistani aggression, it essentially can count China's nuclear arsenal as its own nuclear arsenal, for the purposes of strategic calculations vis a vis India. Paradoxically, such an act would multiply Pakistani military power relative to India.
     
  21. Decklander

    Decklander New Member

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    let there be an all out war and we will show you that we can finish off pakistan without them even touching us, forget about hurting us. We may do that even without a war.
     
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