Britain no longer a naval power, fleet strength depleted

[Armand2REP]

NAGAN is a low frequency sonar, but it is not an ultra low frequency ATAS as France has developed. We are talking in differences of 2-3X more range with the Thales ATAS than low freq Nagan.

 

[LalTopi]

Rolls-Royce Gets 1 Billion-Pound U.K. Submarine Reactor Contract - Businessweek

Looks like the submarine strategic nuclear deterrence of UK will continue in the foreseeable future. :cool2:

Britain will not officially confirm untill 2016 whether they will replace the Trident missiles and Vanguard submarines - this is just spendingto keep that option open. Having said that, I cannot see any nation giving up nuclear weapons.

 

[LalTopi]

using a Passive/Active Ultra Low Frequency Towed Array Sonar (ATAS) is the best way to hunt a submarine in shallow water (Low frequency Sonars usually have 4 to 16 time the Range compared to Medium Frequency ATAS)

So its perfect to hunt for PLAN subs in say the Mallaca straights. Which is what India should be investing in - i.e. to counter PLAN and Pak naval threats. But, however, how effective would it be in deep waters against the top stealthy SSN subs in the world, like the Astute?

Much as I would like otherwise, I think Amand has a point, the Astute is a leading edge sub, conceived during the latter stages of the cold war and designed to counter the best of Soviet technology. Plus we know that the Russians lost several years R&D due to the collapse of the Soviet Union. Therefore if the Indian Navy is using Russian Soviet sonar technolgy it's not going to be as effective against Astutes/Virginia class or Barracudas (but good enough for PLAN and Pak subs).

However, Amand's other arguments I think are less certain:

- I find it hard to beleive that the Type 45s can completely repel a salvo of Brahmos missiles - it only needs a few to get through to cause real damage. I recall what the Argentinians did to the RN with their Exocets which came as a complete surprise.

- I do not buy into Britain buiding an air supply corridor from Cyprus to Diego Garcia. Britain has neither the colonies nor worldwide influence it used to to persuade say Saudi Arabia to let their planes fly over their territories. Plus I think these planes can be easily shot down once they reach DG, by Indian carrier planes.

- Similarly, I think the RN counter attack convoy travelling around the Cape of Good Hope would be overstretched and highly vulnerable. E.g. remember I said that Mauritius would side with India in this scenario. Therefore Indian fighter jets can be based in Mauritius and attack the RN convoy on its route.

- If Indian commandos do manage to land on DG and take over, then the war would be over and there would be no RN counter attack. India can simply relocate the Chagos islanders back on DG, and world opinion would preclude the RN risking civillian lives.

In summary, I think the Indian Navy has usurped the RN in terms of control over the Indian Ocean - no disrespect to Uncle Sam. Although, the astutes are a threat and can cause some real damage, they cannot win the battle.

 

[Armand2REP]

Britain will not officially confirm untill 2016 whether they will replace the Trident missiles and Vanguard submarines - this is just spendingto keep that option open. Having said that, I cannot see any nation giving up nuclear weapons.

Let's review the facts...

1) SDSR commits to nukes
2) a billion quid has been appropriated already

I don't think they are giving it up either.. unless Scotland breaks away.

 

[civfanatic]

Just something to make things more interesting in this "secnario";

What if India and Argentina conclude a secret agreement whereby they would launch attacks simultaneously on Diego Garcia and the Falklands respectively, thereby stretching the British ability to respond even further?

 

[LalTopi]

That would create a moral dilemma as on the one hand India is upholding the rights of the Chagos islanders to live on their land, but on the other hand denying the falkland islanders from living on theirs. Also, don't forget the Argentinians are virtually all Spanish or European descendants. Why would.India want to support them.

 

[civfanatic]

That would create a moral dilemma as on the one hand India is upholding the rights of the Chagos islanders to live on their land, but on the other hand denying the falkland islanders from living on theirs. Also, don't forget the Argentinians are virtually all Spanish or European descendants. Why would.India want to support them.

From a purely geographic perspective, the British have no business being there in the first place. It is important to view Great Britain and the Falkland Islands as two separate entities; though the former may currently exercise political sovereignty over the latter, the two are greatly separated by geography. The objective should not be to deny the right of Falkland Islanders to live in the island, but to remove British sovereignty over the islands. India can play its part in assuring this by including a clause in the agreement with Argentina whereby the Argentines agree to respect the right of Falkland Islanders to remain on the islands if they wish, and to grant the Falkland Islands a certain degree of autonomy if it were to fall under Argentine sovereignty.

 

[asianobserve]

Just something to make things more interesting in this "secnario";

What if India and Argentina conclude a secret agreement whereby they would launch attacks simultaneously on Diego Garcia and the Falklands respectively, thereby stretching the British ability to respond even further?

In Diego Garcia you won't only be contending with the Brits, the Americans are there... http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Diego Garcia.pdf

 

[asianobserve]

The objective should not be to deny the right of Falkland Islanders to live in the island, but to remove British sovereignty over the islands.

The islanders in those islands hold the key in the issue, much like in Gibraltar. This is what differentiate these issues from the Spratlys issue in the SCS where the contested islands are uninhabited, thereby no population to ask for referendum.

 

[civfanatic]

In Diego Garcia you won't only be contending with the Brits, the Americans are there... http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Diego Garcia.pdf

I think the scenario assumes that, for whatever reason, the Yanks chose not to get involved in this hypothetical Indo-Brit conflict. If they do chose to get involved, which will be the case for at least the near future, then the fate of Diego Garcia will lie squarely in their hands. India does not currently have the hard power to compete with the USN, even in the Indian Ocean.

The islanders in those islands hold the key in the issue, much like in Gibraltar. This is what differentiate these issues from the Spratlys issue in the SCS where the contested islands are uninhabited, thereby no population to ask for referendum.

Did anyone ask the Chagos islanders if they wanted to be forcibly removed from their islands?

These issues will not be resolved by the inhabitants of these islands, who have almost no influence whatsoever, but by the power of the relevant players involved.

 

[asianobserve]

Did anyone ask the Chagos islanders if they wanted to be forcibly removed from their islands?

These issues will not be resolved by the inhabitants of these islands, who have almost no influence whatsoever, but by the power of the relevant players involved.

You're right. But it cannot be denied that the islanders are giving the Brits diplomatic cover to continue its dominion over these islands.

 

[balai_c]

Just something to make things more interesting in this "secnario";

What if India and Argentina conclude a secret agreement whereby they would launch attacks simultaneously on Diego Garcia and the Falklands respectively, thereby stretching the British ability to respond even further?

India can invade and successfully defend Diego Garcia. Argentina, I am not so sure.

 

[LalTopi]

In Diego Garcia you won't only be contending with the Brits, the Americans are there... http://users.ox.ac.uk/~mert1769/Diego Garcia.pdf

Good link with a lot of useful information on the strategic importance of DG.

However, see my earlier post #37 http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/...wer-fleet-strength-depleted-3.html#post510427
Which explains the scenario we are discussing to test whether Britain's naval power has been depleted to such an extent that it can no longer take on emerging powers in their own regions - in this case India in the Indian Ocean. In reality you are correct in stating that the US has a mojor interest and, with the chinese threat, its probably preferable to most players that they stay there for a while.

The scenario is not completely unrealistic. The US lease from Britain comes up for renewal in 2016, and I note the comment below in the link you posted:

One future concern relates to the rights of the former copra plantation workers and their descendants to return to the Chagos Archipelago. In the past decade, several legal challenges have been mounted to the lawfulness of the population's original evacuation, with the plaintiffs seeking both further compensation and a right of return. In 2006 and 2007, British courts ruled that the government had wrongly barred the former inhabitants from returning to the archipelago, while upholding the restricted status of Diego Garcia. In 2008, the House of Lords, the United Kingdom's highest court of appeal, overturned these previous rulings by finding that the plaintiffs had no right of abode in the Chagos Archipelago.65 While this would appear to settle the issue within the British legal system, there is speculation that the case will be raised before the European Court of Human Rights, which could take a more liberal view of the plaintiff's case. Although it is unlikely that a civilian population would ever be reintroduced to Diego Garcia proper, it would be wise for the United States to make ontingency plans for the possibility that some of the other islands in the archipelago, specifically the Peros Banos and Salomon atolls approximately 150 miles away, will become inhabited at some point in the future

 

[LalTopi]

From a purely geographic perspective, the British have no business being there in the first place. It is important to view Great Britain and the Falkland Islands as two separate entities; though the former may currently exercise political sovereignty over the latter, the two are greatly separated by geography. The objective should not be to deny the right of Falkland Islanders to live in the island, but to remove British sovereignty over the islands. India can play its part in assuring this by including a clause in the agreement with Argentina whereby the Argentines agree to respect the right of Falkland Islanders to remain on the islands if they wish, and to grant the Falkland Islands a certain degree of autonomy if it were to fall under Argentine sovereignty.

I would say that Argentina's claim to the Falklands is a bit flakey, but then so is Britain's if you remove the current islanders. But in any case, for the purposes of our DG scenario, yes I can see that Argentina may choose to strike whilst the RN is pre-occupied in the Indian Ocean. Which means that the RN will need to place at least one Astute permanently around the Falklands, thereby reducing their capability in the DG arena.

Ignoring the US, I do not see any other nation wanting to get involved in a DG conflict, apart from Australia - which would pose a threat to India.

 

[Virendra]

Aussies posing threat to India?
It is a matter of time before they either become a Chinese colony or come out hard to resist the Chinese threat . They would not and need not choose to cross swords with India.
More tha Britain or Australia, I'd be worried about Chinese influence in Indian Ocean.

 

[afako]

Just some Interesting Information from a US Marine Stationed at Diego Garcia in 1986 during Operation Cactus.

I was stationed at Diego Garcia at the time. The US 7th Fleet Battle Group was too far away to react.

The US Marine Security Det. on Diego Garcia was put on alert and were told to standby for deployment to the Maldives. A P-3 Orion and C-141 were also put on standby alert.

Word came back that the Indians had taken action and everything was okay. However the swiftness of the Indians in retaking the Islands caused concerns with our CO. Thinking if the Indians were able to take over the Maldives, they could also take over Diego Garcia. Shortly after the event, all US Naval personnel including myself underwent basic Marine infantry traning. We were outfiited Veitnam era steel pots, flak jackets and M-14's. I earned my marksman ribbon thanks to a Marine Sniper who trained me. The best shots were the Cajuns and a tiny 19 year old female yeoman from Guam. She outshot many Marines.

Our best defense from India at the time was the Union Jack flying over the island.

Operation Cactus - Maldives, 1988

Some Food for Thought.

 

[LalTopi]

Interesting. Does anybody have any idea whether India has any military bases in the wider IOR? I mean other than the Andaman or Lakshadweep islands.

 

[Yusuf]

Interesting. Does anybody have any idea whether India has any military bases in the wider IOR? I mean other than the Andaman or Lakshadweep islands.

One in Diego Garcia, one in Mauritius, One in Madagascar, we are making one in Indonesia and Australia.

 

[pankaj nema]

One in Diego Garcia, one in Mauritius, One in Madagascar, we are making one in Indonesia and Australia.

When did we get a base in Diego Garcia

 

[Armand2REP]

One in Diego Garcia, one in Mauritius, One in Madagascar, we are making one in Indonesia and Australia.

huh... what? Can you give clarification as I know of no such military bases.