Britain no longer a naval power, fleet strength depleted

Sakal Gharelu Ustad

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LalTopi

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Patrolling an area as big as the Western IOR isn't even possible for the Atalanta mission for pirates.
I take your point about locating the Indian Carrier(s) somewhere around Diego - where the air supply would probably also be more easily intercepted - But just as an aside, in Operation Atalanta I assume they were looking for little pirate vessels which I assume would be harder to spot than British supply planes? Also looking up the operation on Wiki, it does not look like they had much in the way of numbers for reconnaisance aircraft.

If you are talking about 2016/17 I suppose you could. Only one carrier will likely be available out of the two.
Let's take the two scenarios of an IN battlegroup positioned off Diego - firstly with a single Vikramaditya and then with a fully operational IAC. With supporting destroyers, frigates and corvettes covering the full range of ASW, Air and land attack. Plus Sukhois (and Raffales?) attacking from the mainland with refueling tankers. So can India in each of these scenarios ward of the Astutes and type 45s and attempt a landing with reasonable chance of success?
 
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Armand2REP

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I take your point about locating the Indian Carrier(s) somewhere around Diego - where the air supply would probably also be more easily intercepted - But just as an aside, in Operation Atalanta I assume they were looking for little pirate vessels which I assume would be harder to spot than British supply planes? Also looking up the operation on Wiki, it does not look like they had much in the way of numbers for reconnaisance aircraft.
France has E-3F and Atlantique IIs off Djibouti looking for them, the US has their own AWACs, P-3s and drones as well as US carriers in the region. I was also referring to British convoys as well as the air bridge. Starting in the Western IOR, it is still like looking for a needle in a hay stack.


Let's take the two scenarios of an IN battlegroup positioned off Diego - firstly with a single Vikramaditya and then with a fully operational IAC. With supporting destroyers, frigates and corvettes covering the full range of ASW, Air and land attack. Plus Sukhois (and Raffales?) attacking from the mainland with refueling tankers. So can India in each of these scenarios ward of the Astutes and type 45s and attempt a landing with reasonable chance of success?
At the rate Vikrant is going, it will be questionable if the ship is fully worked up by the date. Since India gets to pick the time and place of aggression, I will go ahead and say both can be available if one plans for it long term. If you have two carrier battle groups then most of INs major surface combatants are going to be tied up as escorts. With the long range Spearfish torpedo, an Astute can shoot and kill you by the time you even know what is going on. With Russian sonars being the backbone of the search, I really don't see it making a difference. You need ultra sensitive towed LFAS sonars to catch Astute, something IN doesn't have. IN will be at the mercy of her torpedoes unless you get a lucky contact. Like modern torps, Spearfish doesn't start making alot of noise until it sneaks up on the target and goes full speed. Only hope your hydrophones pick up the swish of the torpedo tube and a swarm of Helixs to investigate. You may get one after a torp spread. You may or may not save your carrier as that is going to be the prime target. Lets say you lose one carrier, kill the one or two SSNs that launched on you and carry about your business.

You still have 16 MiG-29Ks and 6-8 Flankers that can get to the area on a regular basis around 3 IL-78s. Not all in air due to sortie generation issues. There should be one squadron of Rafale that France made available. Add on 6-8 combat Rafale's as others will act as tankers. It doesn't look bad against a dozen Typhoons. But then RAF could send a second squadron. 24 Typhoons could deal with that. Backed up by a Type 45 initially, then a few with the task force will make flying around the island a deadly proposition. IAF can attrite Typhoons with more Flankers, just have to do it in waves. But it can't afford to suffer major losses against Type 45s. A salvo of Brahmos isn't going to do the job. You can kill one with a concerted attack, but against 3 the power can't be brought strong enough. You need Scorpenes with Blackshark torpedoes to sink the RN. A Type 45s sonar is no match against them, but the Type 23s have new Thales 2087 LFAS and the Merlins have latest Thales dipping sonars. RN ASW is top of the line. But then against Scorpene accoustic reductions are top of the line too. With Blackshark long shot capability, you could do serious damage to their fleet. Don't expect to get away though.
 

LalTopi

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With the long range Spearfish torpedo, an Astute can shoot and kill you by the time you even know what is going on. With Russian sonars being the backbone of the search, I really don't see it making a difference. You need ultra sensitive towed LFAS sonars to catch Astute, something IN doesn't have. IN will be at the mercy of her torpedoes unless you get a lucky contact. Like modern torps, Spearfish doesn't start making alot of noise until it sneaks up on the target and goes full speed. Only hope your hydrophones pick up the swish of the torpedo tube and a swarm of Helixs to investigate. You may get one after a torp spread.
So you are saying that the IN is defficient in LFAS sonars, in order to detect modern western subs, as opposed to say Chinese ones? incidentally how does the INS Chakra compare to the Astute in terms of stealth? I did ask this on another thread but did not get an answer.

You may or may not save your carrier as that is going to be the prime target. Lets say you lose one carrier, kill the one or two SSNs that launched on you and carry about your business.

RN ASW is top of the line. But then against Scorpene accoustic reductions are top of the line too. With Blackshark long shot capability, you could do serious damage to their fleet. Don't expect to get away though.
What you are saying, I believe is that Subs will get through to have a first strike, unless you have extensive top of the range sonars. But after that first strike, the sub will reveal its position and will be at the mercy of counter strike from the battle group/task force?
 

Armand2REP

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So you are saying that the IN is defficient in LFAS sonars, in order to detect modern western subs, as opposed to say Chinese ones? incidentally how does the INS Chakra compare to the Astute in terms of stealth? I did ask this on another thread but did not get an answer.
Both India and China are deficient in sonars capable of detecting latest Western fast attacks. China still makes the old Thompson (now Thales) sonars we licensed to them before Tienanmen.Chakra is a 971U which is the latest tech of the USSR. It was compared to the improved Los Angeles class in acoustic signature. Astute is in the class of Sea Wolf and Barracuda which is a half generation ahead.

What you are saying, I believe is that Subs will get through to have a first strike, unless you have extensive top of the range sonars. But after that first strike, the sub will reveal its position and will be at the mercy of counter strike from the battle group/task force?
I am saying Scorpene is quiet enough to get close with BlackShark to release a salvo, or salvos depending if you want to take chances, before it is detected. With the sensitivity of RN's hydrophones, they will pick up the tube launches and send a bunch of Merlins to hunt for you. Their dipping sonars are state of the art so they will likely pick you up once they dip on top of you. You can only run silent at 5-7kts so you can't go very far. At 20kts it isn't fast enough to outrun torpedoes. The Thales 2087 is sensitive enough to pick up a bus on land at 60km.
 

Payeng

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If RAF has a squadron of Typhoons guarding the island, would a handful of Flankers be enough? You have to get through that before you start dropping paras.
Maybe with the current option for buddy refueling eliminate the task for refueller tankers, giving ample advantage for a 5:1 scale attack when India posses Flankers in triple digit numbers.
 

Armand2REP

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I often wonder why I never see MKI with fuel tanks. If IAF hasn't ordered them it makes buddy refueling much less effective.
 

LalTopi

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Maybe with the current option for buddy refueling eliminate the task for refueller tankers, giving ample advantage for a 5:1 scale attack when India posses Flankers in triple digit numbers.
With that scale of airpower India can dominate the region and astutes will have no effect.
 

LalTopi

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Both India and China are deficient in sonars capable of detecting latest Western fast attacks. China still makes the old Thompson (now Thales) sonars we licensed to them before Tienanmen.Chakra is a 971U which is the latest tech of the USSR. It was compared to the improved Los Angeles class in acoustic signature. Astute is in the class of Sea Wolf and Barracuda which is a half generation ahead.
I am saying Scorpene is quiet enough to get close with BlackShark to release a salvo, or salvos depending if you want to take chances, before it is detected. With the sensitivity of RN's hydrophones, they will pick up the tube launches and send a bunch of Merlins to hunt for you. Their dipping sonars are state of the art so they will likely pick you up once they dip on top of you. You can only run silent at 5-7kts so you can't go very far. At 20kts it isn't fast enough to outrun torpedoes. The Thales 2087 is sensitive enough to pick up a bus on land at 60km.
In single point conflicts such as in this scenario, how would modern SSKs - e.g. Scorpenes - compare to top SSNs, e.g. Astutes. I mean where range is not a factor but stealth and anti ship/sub firepower are the defining factors? Per wikipedia deisel electrics can be quieter when running on batteries than SSNs - not sure whether to believe this.

In littoral waters, SSKs should also have an advantage over SSNs due to their smaller size, although I am not sure how shallow the waters around DG are - maybe the drop off is quite steep hence providing deep waters all around.
 
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balai_c

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In recent times, there had been multiple cases when stealthy ssk s have successfully evaded western sonars on multiple occasions. A most recent example would the sudden surfacing of a Chinese ssk in a war game involving USA in east asia. Russia had routinely patrolled US coasts during cold war and late cold era, with American satellites being helpless in locating them. I do not believe French technology being superior to American electronics, now is it ? USA is light years of the rest of the world (including England and France). Indian sonar technology is particularly customized to operate in tropical waters of Indian ocean. It would be suicidal for RN to underestimate Indian sonar technology.
While Astute SSN is indeed a trump card , it is troubling to see how RN can turn the tide in the face of a rapidly modernizing navy improving in both quality and quantity.Come 2016, India would field a very large navy with very high tech top-of-the-line communication technology and detection capabilities. The difference would be diminishing day by day. We also should remember that quantity is a quality by its own right.
 

Armand2REP

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In single point conflicts such as in this scenario, how would modern SSKs - e.g. Scorpenes - compare to top SSNs, e.g. Astutes. I mean where range is not a factor but stealth and anti ship/sub firepower are the defining factors? Per wikipedia deisel electrics can be quieter when running on batteries than SSNs - not sure whether to believe this.

In littoral waters, SSKs should also have an advantage over SSNs due to their smaller size, although I am not sure how shallow the waters around DG are - maybe the drop off is quite steep hence providing deep waters all around.
SSKs can be as quiet as SSNs, but they lack the running speed of nukes both at flank and silent running speeds. SSNs are much more survivable. You never hear in the exercises where an SSK gets a hit that it was later sunk by an escort or helo. SSNs can get away either by passive high speed or simply outrunning the tailing torpedo. SSK has to pray that a passing search doesn't detect it since it can't get away without being revealed.

SSKs usually require 30-40ft for safe navigation in littoral waters while SSNs require 50-60. It has better maneuverability at low speeds... does that really make much of a difference? I guess you can enter a shallow harbour more easily.
 

Armand2REP

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In recent times, there had been multiple cases when stealthy ssk s have successfully evaded western sonars on multiple occasions. A most recent example would the sudden surfacing of a Chinese ssk in a war game involving USA in east asia.
Like they didn't know it was there or was it they weren't looking for them running SAR exercises? They can't do anything about it being in international waters nor can they confirm they detected it for security reasons. Considering the latest activity info and how noisy they are, they would easily find it if they looked.

Russia had routinely patrolled US coasts during cold war and late cold era, with American satellites being helpless in locating them. I do not believe French technology being superior to American electronics, now is it ? USA is light years of the rest of the world (including England and France).
When it comes to sonar technology, France is the world leader. Thales Underwater systems has contracts with most European navies including upgrades for RN destroyers, Astute SSNs and even won the mega contract to supply LCS with their sonar sets. So yeah, France is ahead of the US there.

Indian sonar technology is particularly customized to operate in tropical waters of Indian ocean. It would be suicidal for RN to underestimate Indian sonar technology.
Suicidal? That is a bit of an overstatement. Astute class submarines can handle Indian ASW rather easily.

While Astute SSN is indeed a trump card , it is troubling to see how RN can turn the tide in the face of a rapidly modernizing navy improving in both quality and quantity.Come 2016, India would field a very large navy with very high tech top-of-the-line communication technology and detection capabilities. The difference would be diminishing day by day. We also should remember that quantity is a quality by its own right.
What modern ASW systems are on order? P8-I is fine, but it is only as good as the sonobuoys they use. IN will still be dominated by obsolete Russian dipping sonars. Shivalik are getting Thales ATAS LFAS which was state-of-the-art in 2000. It isn't really in the class of detecting an Astute. And how often and what type of ASW training does the IN give? I don't really hear them being a top notch ASW training school.
 

Apollyon

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Shivalik are getting Thales ATAS LFAS which was state-of-the-art in 2000. It isn't really in the class of detecting an Astute. And how often and what type of ASW training does the IN give? I don't really hear them being a top notch ASW training school.
next lot of next-gen ships of Indian Navy (Kolkata Class Destroyers and Kamotra Class Corvette) will carry DRDO developed BEL HUMSA-NG (Hull Mounted Sonar Array)

 

LalTopi

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So will these new sonars stand any chance of detecting the astutes? Or will we have to dig deep into our pockets and pay for the latest French sonars?

Also in a CBG formation is it not possible to protect the carriers by a protective formation, even without the latest sonars?

Plus if an Astute does get through, what are the chances of knocking it out? SSNs are high value targets in themselves and the British will only have 3 by 2016.
 

balai_c

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So will these new sonars stand any chance of detecting the astutes? Or will we have to dig deep into our pockets and pay for the latest French sonars?

Also in a CBG formation is it not possible to protect the carriers by a protective formation, even without the latest sonars?

Plus if an Astute does get through, what are the chances of knocking it out? SSNs are high value targets in themselves and the British will only have 3 by 2016.
There are a lot of ifs and buts in our scenario. Armand is banking on his belief of the superiority of contemporary of anglo-saxon technology. As rightly pointed out by Archer he has no idea about the level of sophistication of Indian sonar technology (or any technology in India in general). So, he is just bluffing.

Plus if an Astute does get through, what are the chances of knocking it out? SSNs are high value targets in themselves and the British will only have 3 by 2016
That is a very important observation! Just 3 submarines. In comparison India will have it's entire support network (both surface combatants as well as submarines). Even if for the sake of arguement, we concede one kill to the British task force, what next? The entire CBG support will simply bomb it to death. In addition, England will have very limited fleet air support from fellow carriers. Plus, if India manages to keep like 4 of the long range Tu-142 , that will be a game changer with India's own bomber fleet.
 

Apollyon

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using a Passive/Active Ultra Low Frequency Towed Array Sonar (ATAS) is the best way to hunt a submarine in shallow water (Low frequency Sonars usually have 4 to 16 time the Range compared to Medium Frequency ATAS)

 

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