BRIC, E7, Largest Emerging Economies

hello_10

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here, the Natural Economic Order of World is as below, and it can change only when different wars are orgaized, like how Western Nations organized different wars in 19th century and changed this economic ranking. and for Indians, I said many times, "China will always share the top two economic spot with India like till 18th century, or, both will come down together like since 19th century after different Western organized wars." and if CHina may achieve high economic size like in 17th and 19th centuries, then India will simply replace China to second spot like how Indian economy was on the top till 18th century, excluding the 17th century, as below: (now, think, Indians here want China to go up or go down?????????)

Indians here would only expect the China to clear the 'Western Hurdles' and rest, all is alright for India, as, China does do the work :truestory:

List of regions by past GDP (PPP) - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia


With $85 trillion, how India can become world's largest economy

According to a study by US banking group Citi, India will be the world's largest economy within 39 years. Indian GDP in 2050, measured by purchasing power parity (PPP), will be $85.97 trillion. China, in second place, will have a GDP of $ 80.02 trillion and the US $ 39.07 trillion (see chart).



With an estimated population in 2050 of 1.63 billion, India will thus have a per capita income of over $53,000 - in the range of today's wealthiest countries like Switzerland and Norway. Sounds too good to be true? Of course it is.

On paper - mathematically - Indian poverty should disappear by 2050. The reason it won't is that huge inequalities in income will persist unless we rapidly implement second-generation economic reforms which deliver real benefits to the bottom of India's socio-economic pyramid.

The first chart in our three-chart collage shows the ranking of the top five countries by GDP in 2050 as per Citi's projections. Indian GDP in 2011 is estimated at $4.45 trillion (PPP). To reach $85.97 trillion in 2050, the Indian economy will have to grow at an average annual rate of 8.1% a year for the next 39 years. Optimistic? Perhaps, but not overly so.

The Citi study relies heavily on India's two dividends - demographic and democratic. The demographic dividend will ensure that India has the largest number of working-age people in the world (over 800 million) between 2015 and 2035 before tapering off as our population reaches a plateau of just over 1.60 billion and starts ageing (as China's already is). Fertility rates of increasingly educated urban and rural Indian women will dip from today's 2.6 to 1.7, which is when a country's birth and death rates equalise.

A large number of working-age Indians between 18 and 60, however, will be less than optimally productive if they remain poorly educated and are therefore unemployable. To gain from our 20-year demographic sweet spot, education reform must clearly top the government's agenda. Infosys mentor N R Narayana Murthy was partly right when he said that the standard of IIT students has fallen. It has. Too many are rote-learners, spewed out by coaching classes, not creative thinkers.

Education reform must start with government-run primary schools. Shockingly, in some villages, primary schools have no teachers, no students and an empty shed that serves as a classroom. The government spends 52,000 crore on education every year. That is less than it spends on fertiliser subsidy alone ( 55,000 crore).

The second dividend Citi banks on to project India's rise to the top of the GDP rankings in 2050 - especially in comparison with China - is democracy. China's autocratic government, the argument goes, can command 10% GDP growth, build superhighways and create gleaming infrastructure.

But beneath the towers and the maglev bullet train tracks of Shanghai lurks social tension. As China's per capita income rises, its 1.34 billion people will increasingly yearn for real freedom: a free press, an open Internet and, most crucially, democracy.

If the Chinese government can't deliver on these, a "Chinese Spring" a decade hence cannot be ruled out. That could plunge China into years of uncertainty. Throughout history, as countries grew richer, they grew freer. Will China prove an exception? Unlikely. By that token, India's democracy is a double-edge scimitar. Our raucous, open society takes us two steps forward economically and then one step backwards.

But if governance reforms - land, electoral, judicial and police - are implemented quickly, the stage could be set for second-generation economic reforms that will turn our democratic institutions into assets for long-term economic and social growth. We will then move from a culture of high subsidies leaked to corrupt middlemen to a culture of high productivity.

Second-generation economic reforms were stuck in UPA-I because of the Left's ideological opposition and have been derailed in UPA-II because of muddle-headed opposition from within the fractious UPA coalition itself. It is time to cast off the fetters.

We must allow FDI in retail, introduce hybrid agricultural technology to double crop yields within a decade, modernise infrastructure, make land acquisition fairer to farmers, improve healthcare, pass enabling legislation to unleash the entrepreneurial energy of small and medium enterprises - the backbone of our economy - and implement tough, effective regulation to clean up business practice.

India is set to become the world's third largest economy in the world in 2011 largely because Japan's GDP will shrink by around 2% to $4.42 trillion following the devastating earthquake and tsunami. But if a growing GDP is not to become a cruel irony for India's 445 million still-desperately poor people, the government must begin the second stage of economic liberalisation without losing any further time.

Examine our second and third charts. The one on top is pyramid-shaped, split into three sections. It reflects India's current household income structure: a large base of the poor and relatively poor of over 860 million, a narrow intermediate section of the middle-class around 280 million and a tiny tip of the reasonably well-off of 70 million.

The chart below it is diamond-shaped and reflects the shape of things to come in 2050 if political and economic reforms have their desired effect. The bottom section comprises around 330 million of the poor and relatively poor (down from 860 million today), the top section comprises the well-off, around 300 million, up from 70 million today and the intermediate bulge comprises the expanded middle-class of nearly one billion, up from 280 million today. That is the future. We must lay its foundation today.

With $85 trillion, how India can become world's largest economy - Economic Times
 
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hello_10

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this analysis still hasn't included positive effects by inflow of foreign money into India also when half of the developed economies will have been collapsed till 2020, hopefully. Mr Mittal could become 4th richest man by 2008 because he could understand the likely economic fall of ASEAN in 90s and shifted his money from there to those markets which were going to rise. Similar thing happened in 2011 when as it was believed that earning by Indian export for past one year, (in financial year 2010/11), also included black money as Western markets are going to collapse and those who have black money there are bringing it back (as per the report i read). one more example is seen when we have a look on the hefty number of Indian professionals returning back to India from US during last 4 year as an environment is there that US's companies have no more future and even if salaries in Indian companies is lesser, they would rise in future. these Indian professionals now find their future brighter in India, not in US. Also, this type of analysis generally predicts on the basis of "Linearity", with a sense of 'continuity', while things don't work like this. things change rapidly and many times dramatically. for exmaple how, my one Pakistani friend in Australia, Faraz, told me that many people are crying who bought made in US car in 2009 for 20lacs rupees while same type of made in China car was available for 10lacs only in Pakistan by 2011 ........

in fact, GDP of India even around $100tn on PPP by 2050 doesn't surprise me but GDP of US and EU even around $20tn each by 2050 looks overly estimated. as Once an environment will be prepared that money/ investment is just not safe in today's Industrialized countries, there will be a fun to see how world markets behave. also, how rise of Asian tigers will affect Western Markets, we have yet to see before we would make any prediction based on Linearity. Most of Industries of today's 'Industrialized' countries have been shifted to Asian tigers, mainly to China, and they now have to keep buying cheap products from China until their per capita income comes below to that of China, making them cheaper to be produced domestically. at the same time China/ India keep buying whatever industries/ big brands are still left in West. while at the same time we hope for new technologies coming from India, China with this tread of reverse brain drain....

we still have to wait for a while before making any prediction..... :ranger:
 

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BRIC's Growth Rate for the last 3 years is as below, as reported by CIA Fact Book: :ranger:

=> Brazil:- 2.7% (2011 est.)
7.5% (2010 est.)
-0.3% (2009 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/br.html

=> Russia:- 4.3% (2011 est.)
4.3% (2010 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/rs.html

=> India:- 6.8% (2011 est.)
10.1% (2010 est.)
5.9% (2009 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/in.html

=> China:- 9.2% (2011 est.)
10.4% (2010 est.)
9.2% (2009 est.)
https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-world-factbook/geos/ch.html
 

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Average Growth Rate of India was around 8.5% in between 2003 to 2011, but now there is only one Major Emerging Economy, which has growth rate around 7.5% this year, its China but its also because of hefty investment in infrastructure, around 13% to GDP right now. and in these serious external economic conditions of US+EU, Infrastructure Spending at around 7%-8% to GDP can't help India have more than 7% growth for the next few years..... even 'Composite PMI' (Manufacturing+Services) of China for the year 2012 to November, comes around '50.5' only, while that of India is averaged at around '54' which is pretty good..........

Growth Rate of Brazil is less than 1.0% this year to date, of Russia its 4.0%, as expected, while India at around 5.5% is still not bad in so low spending on Infrastructure......
 
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BRIC's PMI for 2012: :ranger:

Markit Economics - Press releases

1st, Brazil:
The seasonally adjusted HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index posted 53.0 in November, up from 50.7 in October, to signal further improvement in activity in the sector. With manufacturing and services firms both registering increases, the overall pace of expansion was solid and the fastest in eight months.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10409
2nd, Russia: the excellent :thumb:
The Composite PMI survey showed that overall business activity in the economy eased back to 56.2 in November from 56.6 the previous month.

Russia services sector steams ahead in November: PMI - Economic Times
3rd, India:
The HSBC India Composite Output Index posted 53.2 in November, slightly down from 53.5 in October, signalling a further improvement in activity at Indian private sector firms. Although solid, the rate of expansion was the slowest in 12 months. :sad:

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10372
4th, China:
The HSBC China Composite PMI data (which covers both manufacturing and services) signalled a modest expansion of business activity during November. Activity has now risen for the past three months, with the rate of expansion the fastest since July. The HSBC China Composite Output Index posted 51.6 in November, up from 50.5 in October.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10434
 
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after reforms in September, the first response we have from Composite PMI report as above, which shows 53.5 in October, the lowest for the last 12 month to date, and again 53.2 in November, which again beaten the October's record, with registering the slowest economic growth in November, as compare to last 12 months :tsk:. the 'first cut' outcome of the reforms taken place in September, when Composite PMI was well maintained on average of around '55', showing around 10% combine expansion for Manufacturing+Services as per the chart as below......

and 'first cut' outcome when a man takes big reforms 'over night', under serious risky external environment, who has been copying economic policy of the pakistan type nation also before :facepalm: :tsk:

 

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BRICs Share Of World Economy Up Four Times In 10 Years
7/04/2012

The economies of Brazil, Russia, India and China account for 20 percent of the world economic output, and rising. That's up four fold in the last decade, according to a report released yesterday by the International Monetary Fund.

Despite the growth, problems in the core economies had made the post-2008 world a difficult one for the big four emerging markets.

Their combined stock-market value has dropped to a three-year low of 16 percent of the total invested in global equities, according to data compiled by Bloomberg . Jim O'Neill , the chairman of Goldman Sachs Asset Management who came up with the term BRIC in a November 2001 research report, said that the pull back in equity values makes BRIC market stocks "irresistible," Bloomberg reported him saying on Wednesday. The last time the gap was this wide, in 2005, the MSCI BRIC Index jumped 53 percent in 12 months, more than double the gain in the MSCI All-Country World Index. :tup:

"Unless we are seeing a major collapse of those economies, it's a huge opportunity for investors," O'Neill told the newswire.

Audrey Kaplan, a fund manager at Federated InterContinental (RIMAX) said on Monday in an interview with Forbes that she had started investing in China for the first time in nearly years in the first quarter and is now overweight China and Brazil within the BRICs.

"You want to own a lot of these big names when they're cheap," Kaplan said about Brazil's large cap stocks which have underperformed the local BM&F Bovespa index all year. "We're getting back into these names because they are very attractive at their recent price levels."

According to Bloomberg, BRIC equity value, which includes locally-traded shares and ADRs, has dropped to $7.6 trillion from $9.5 trillion a year ago, when they made up 18 percent of the global total. Petrobras (PBR), Brazil's state run energy company, fell to the world's 39th-largest company by value from the 10th-biggest in July 2011. China Construction Bank's rank dropped to 20 from 12 while Rosneft , Russia's largest oil producer, sank to 106 from 70. India's ICICI Bank (IBN) has lost 17 percent of its market cap during the past year, compared with an average gain of 9 percent for global peers.

The long term trend of rising standards of living remains in place for the BRICs, but investors still have to contend with market volatility related to problems in the advanced economies.

Allan Conway, head of emerging markets at Schroder Investment Management, said the market still needs clarity on Europe. There's no clear direction yet in global equities as a result.

"In 2008, we beat the MSCI emerging markets index. The period we suffered most was 2010 when the market had no clear trend. Since then we've clawed back and are ahead by about 300 basis points over the MSCI EM and this year as of end of June up 250 basis points over MSCI EM. The challenge for us has been to stay ahead of the curve. If we wait for some incredible plan to come out of Europe, we miss 30 percent of the rally," he said. "The trick in the coming months are to look for the sign points that show we have moved away from kicking the can down the road and are moving to more long lasting structural changes."

Dedicated emerging market investment funds that have a heavy weighting in the BRICs have posted 16 straight weeks of withdrawals , losing a net $5.3 billion, according to Cambridge, Mass based fund tracking firm EPFR Global.

The BRIC economies are slowing. They've expanded by 4.8 percent on average during the first quarter, but that's down from nearly 7 percent last year.



BRICs Share Of World Economy Up Four Times In 10 Years - Forbes
OECD: 'Dramatic shift' in balance of economic power
9 November 2012

The Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) is predicting a "dramatic shift" in the balance of economic power.


Over the next 50 years, the OECD says emerging economies will account for an ever increasing share of output.

In its report, it says China will overtake the United States as early as 2016.

The OECD expects the current trends of faster growth in emerging economies to continue.

The result is that the largest of them, those with the biggest populations, will overtake what the OECD calls fast-ageing economic heavyweights, such as Japan and the eurozone.

On the basis known as purchasing power parity, which tends to favour emerging countries, China and India combined will be larger than the entire developed world by 2060.

And the OECD predicts that China will overtake the US in the next few years.

The report says gaps in living standards will narrow, but will not be eliminated. In the poorest countries, income per person is predicted to quadruple. For China and India, it will increase seven fold.

The report assumes that the recent financial crisis has had an impact on the level of economic activity, but none on long-term growth trends.

The report also acknowledges that it ignores possible risks such as disorderly debt defaults and unsustainable use of natural resources.

BBC News - OECD: 'Dramatic shift' in balance of economic power


=> Balance of economic power will shift dramatically over the next 50 years, says OECD

http://www.oecd.org/newsroom/balanc...tdramaticallyoverthe next50yearssaysoecd.htm

 
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BRIC's Manufacturing PMI for December 2012:
Markit Economics - Press releases

1st, Brazil:

posted 51.1 in December. That was down from the reading of 52.2 in November

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10508

2nd, Russia:

The PMI equalled the no-change mark of 50.0 in December, ending a 14-month period of positive readings. The fall in the PMI from November's 52.2

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10499

3rd, India:

posted 54.7 in December, up from 53.7 in November

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10500

4th, China:

posted 51.5 in December, up from 50.5 in November

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10489
 

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BRIC's Composite PMI for December 2012:
Markit Economics - Press releases

1st, Brazil:

The seasonally adjusted HSBC Brazil Composite Output Index posted 53.2 in December, up from 53.0 in November

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10510

2nd, Russia:

Remaining above the 50.0 no-change threshold for the twenty-eighth month in succession in December, the Index eased to 56.1, from 57.1 in November.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10498

3rd, India:

The HSBC India Composite Output Index posted 56.3 in December, up from 53.2 in November.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10507

4th, China:

The HSBC China Composite Output Index posted 51.8 in December, up from 51.6 in November.

http://www.markiteconomics.com/MarkitFiles/Pages/ViewPressRelease.aspx?ID=10556
 

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I would compare India with the Asian Newly Industrialized Countries as below, leaving Japan, Korea, Taiwan, Singapore as they are among the industrialized nations and Malaysia is too small to be compared.....

=> Newly industrialized country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

hence, we have "Average Growth Rate" of last 32 years of China, India, Philippines, Thailand, including Indonesia as below: (since 1980)

1st, China: 9.998% since 1980 to 2011
China GDP - real growth rate - Economy

2nd, India: 6.3% since 1981 to 2011
India GDP - real growth rate - Economy

3rd, Philippines: 3.3% since 1980 to 2011
Philippines GDP - real growth rate - Economy

4th, Thailand: 5.4% since 1980 to 2011
Thailand GDP - real growth rate - Economy

5th, Indonesia: 5.2% since 1980 to 2011
Indonesia GDP - real growth rate - Economy
here we can see that India could maintain around 6.3% growth rate for the 31 years of 1981 to 2011, which is quite high as compare to the 3 biggest economies of ASEAN. but population growth rate of around 1.9% since 1981 has added 500mil extra people during this period, which has pulled India down. hence India's per capita income is around same as that of Philippines, Indonesia...::tsk:

and here we have a "miracle" growth rate of China, around 10% for the last 32 years to 2011, with controlling its population too through One Child Policy etc, and hence its per capita income is around 3 times to that of India while per capita income of India was higher than that of China till 1991, the year when economic reforms took place in India.......

=> hence even if India now has around 350mil Middle Class whose per capiat Income would stand at around $20,000 on PPP as below, India is still a poor country. 350mil population is in fact more than total population at the time of freedom of India, 1947, but its still a poor country because of around extra 600mil population :toilet:

We have new GDP Per Capita on PPP calculation for India considering the year 2012, is as below:

now poverty of India is because of its over population. Most of the problems of India is because of its Over Population and India has to reduce its population only. otherwise India has around 350mil Upper Middle Class, more than total population in 1947, whose per capita income on PPP is similar to the Very High HDI countries like Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia etc. one day I calculated as below:-

first, we find GDP on PPP of India was $4.45tn in 2011 but its still manipulated by the US/UK since 2007. as, till 2006, we had a different way of measuring GDP on PPP which used to include estimated undocumented part of GDP also. and I remember, this way GDP of high population 'developing' countries was around 50% to 80% higher, and for the middle order countries like Brazil/Turkey it was around 10% higher. and for the developed nations, the difference was hardly around 1% to 3% by that "Old Method" which was in application till 2006. like as below:

"There are, however, practical difficulties in deriving GDP at PPP, and we now have two different estimates of the PPP conversion factor for 2005, India's GDP at PPP is estimated at $ 5.16 trillion or $ 3.19 trillion depending on whether the old or new conversion factor is used," it said.

It's official: India's a trillion-$ economy - Times Of India
means, GDP of India on PPP was already $5.16tn in 2006. again we have India's growth rate since 2007 as below:

India GDP Annual Growth Rate

here we find, "Average Growth Rate" of India from first quarter of 2007 till the December quarter 2012, stood at around 7.7%, on 'annual' basis. hence considering GDP on PPP of India at $5.16tn in 2006 by Old Method, we may calculate its value by 2012, after 6 years since early 2007, as below:

GDP on PPP of India by end 2012 = 5.16*1.077*1.077*1.077*1.077*1.077*1.077= $8.053tn

but we would also get to know that PPP value consider value of goods and serivces in US$ term, means we would include the factor of inflation of United States also. and even if we consider average 2.0% inflation of US for those six year in between early 2007 to 2012, with considering an overall factor of just 1.10 this way, then GDP on PPP of India comes around = 8.053* 1.1= $8.86tn by 2012. and it still hasn't included 'Value Added' effects also........

again, we know that share of agriculture was around 17% in India's GDP in 2012. therefore, we find share of agriculture in indian economy, 0.17 * 8.86= $1.506 trillions, on which 50% population of india is dependent. means around 600mil people based on agriculture in india have per capita income around = $2,500 on PPP by 2012, which is itself similar to the lower middle order countries.

this way, 8.858 - 1.50 = $7.36tn is left for rest of 600mil people based in industry and service in India, with per capita income of around $12,366 on PPP which is higher than Brazil..........

again, we have news that 25% of the population of cities are either in slum or in bit better condition only. so we would consider per capita income of 300mil living in cities in low condition at hardly $3,000 which takes a share of $900bil from its GDP. hence we are then left with around 7.36 - 0.90 = $6.46tn, around, for rest of 300 mil people living in cities, the so called Middle Class of India with per capita income around $21,533 on PPP this way.

but it is estimated that out of total 600mil people based in agriculture sector, it also has around 50mil Lower Middle Class with Per Capita Income around $12,000 on PPP. (as we know that agriculture has higher share of 'undocumented' part, with that, Agriculture also has higher share of non-taxable business of India.) so we find total middle class of India around 350mil with per capita income around $20,000 on PPP which is similar to Very High HDI countries like Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia etc, which is more than total population of India at the time of freedom in 1947 :ranger:
 

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India needs free floating Gold, with no import tax on it :india:

I always support Gold Import as its all about a foreign currency in terms of gold, which floats as per market demand and having high gold import in fact help the Trade Balance in tough times. for example, like how we saw even export of Gold in first quarter of 2009, when Indian Rupees depreciated to Rs50/US$, from its Rs40/$ level of mid 2008, which then made the Gold price lesser in the Indian market as compare the its Dollar value in the international market, which then resulted in even export of Gold coins from India in the first quarter of 2009, during the peak of recession.......

Gold import has a unique role in the Indian trade and it can't be equated to oil import, as its in fact the "most valued foreign currency". there must not be any tax on the Gold import to keep it always floating....:thumb:

Singapore: Investors in India, the world's largest gold consumer, sold 17 tonnes of bullion in the first quarter of 2009, marking its first disinvestment ever, while investment demand plunged more than 70% in Vietnam on import restrictions, industry data showed on Thursday. :thumb:

China, the world's second-largest consumer, saw demand for investment falling to 16.1 tonnes in the first quarter from 16.7 tonnes in the same period last year, according to the World Gold Council.

India gold investment turns negative for first time - Livemint
 
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Average GDP Growth Rate of Asian Industrialized Countries Since 1981 :thumb:

My this post is just to keep a record of the comparative 'Average' Growth rate of India with "Newly Asian Industrialized" countries, along with the Matured Industrialized Asian countries like Korea, Japan, Taiwan, Singapore as below.

this effort is just to keep an eye on the Average Growth Rate of India since 1981, as compare to other 'Asian' Industrialized Countries :thumb:

Select Country or Country Groups

=> Newly industrialized country - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

1st, China: 9.998% since 1980

2nd, India: 6.3% since 1981

3rd, Philippines: 3.3% since 1980

4th, Thailand: 5.4% since 1980

5th, Indonesia: 5.2% since 1980

6th, Malaysia: 5.9% since 1980

7th, Singapore: 6.9% since 1980

8th, Korea: 6.4% since 1980

9th, Taiwan: 5.9% since 1980

10th, Japan: 2.1% since 1980

Select Country or Country Groups

and this comparison clearly tells us, how population growth rate of around 2% since 1981, with 500mil extra people this way, has covered every success of India since 1947. while total number of Middle Class of India is itself more than total population at the time of freedom, 1947 :facepalm:
 
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India Needs "Subsidy Tax" on the Kids taking Birth

today I discussed that we now need a "Subsidy Tax" on the kids taking birth in India. First one would be free, the second one would come with Rs10lacs, the 3rd Kids would cost around 50lacs, the fourth one would be of the price of Rs1.0crore and then we would have Rs 5.0crore ($1.0mil) tax on every next kid taking birth, something like this......

this talk emerged when we discussed diesel price hike by 50 paise every month, while it wasn't required if the Rupees could have its level of $1.0= Rs 45, it had till mid 2011. and hence depreciation of rupees to 55 per dollar, has made a total loss of around Rs10 per liter of diesel this way. in case of $1.0 = Rs 45, we could even reduce petrol price by around Rs 14 too right now :tsk:

its because Oil Import accounts for around 40% of total India's import, and more the import, more it depreciate the currency. thats why I have run a thread about discussing a "consumption based population", how much resources we have to support the population. as, lower the oil price, higher its price when currency gets depreciation due to high import by importing more due ot its lower price :tsk:....... and its not just oil but also metals, coal etc, which accounts for around 50% of India's import altogether with energy bill. and more we import, higher it will have the price tag due to further depreciation of the currency.:toilet:

=> http://defenceforumindia.com/forum/economy-infrastructure/44002-consequences-high-population.html

we have to have high price of the imported items to keep rupees at a decent level. (I mean, if One Liter Diesel at Rs100, may reduce its import bill due to its high price then its 'not bad' as compare to let the rupees depreciated to the state when we will have to do the same :toilet:) and at the same time we do know that higher the population, more will be the demand so we do need only as many people which can be supported by Indian economy, by its limited resources.....:facepalm:

(while Gold Import in fact has a positive sign during tough time, like how I discussed before (post#53) that it was even exported in early 2009 when Rupees got depreciated by around 25% during late 2008, during peak of that recession, thus making gold price in rupees term cheaper in India than its dollar value in the international market and hence it was exported to support the economy during the tough time of peak of that recession.....)

=> The Hindu : Business / Industry : Diesel price up by 55 paise, petrol cut by 25 paise
 
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E7 Growth Performance Trumps G7
January 2012

It is now three years since the Great Recession ended and profound changes are underway in the world economy. The global economic axis which had been shifting fundamentally away from the advanced economies of Europe and North America to the world's emerging economies has accelerated sharply over the past four years. Moreover, living standards are rebalancing across the world, rising in the emerging countries but falling in the advanced countries.

The global economy has been severely buffeted in the past few years as it lurches from one crisis to yet another. The bursting of the US housing bubble, the meltdown of the sub-prime mortgage market, the freezing of credit markets, the collapse of Lehman Brothers, the sovereign debt crisis, credit rating downgrades, and the very survivability of the eurozone, have all contributed to the unprecedented battering that is plaguing the global economy.

It's little wonder that the fallout from these crises has had a profound effect on the structure of the world economy. Interestingly, a comparison between the major advanced economies of the G7 and the seven largest emerging economies – the E7 – reveals some startling differences. Collectively, the E7 bloc which includes China, India, Indonesia, Brazil, Russia, Turkey and Mexico now accounts for close to 31% of world GDP, up from 19% twenty years ago. During this same time period, the G7 has seen its share of world output fall from 51% to 38%.

The impact of the global recession on the G7 and E7 economies has been quite varied. In a nutshell, while the recession and the ongoing economic malaise have knocked the wind out of the G7 economies, the impact on most of the E7 countries has been relatively muted. Five of the G7 economies – Britain, France, Italy, Japan, and the United States – all suffered back-to-back declines in GDP both in 2008 and 2009. Canada and Germany, however, posted declines in GDP on a calendar year basis only in 2009.

In contrast, four members of the E7 group – Brazil, Mexico, Russia, and Turkey – experienced declines in economic activity only in 2009 with the fall in GDP ranging from a low of -0.6% in Brazil to a high of -7.8% in Russia. Moreover, the economies of China, India, and Indonesia rode out the financial storm and sailed through the global recession without posting a single negative year of growth.

Since climbing out of the Great Recession, the recovery has been weak across the board for all the G7 economies and there are growing fears that another economic downturn may be unavoidable. For example, for the G7 group as a whole, growth in GDP averaged 2.7% in 2010 but weakened to 1.3% in 2011 and is expected to slip even further and average just 0.6% this year. In contrast, while a slowdown is also anticipated in all the major emerging economies because of the global inter-linkages, there is no talk of recession. Economic growth in the E7 averaged 7.5% in 2010, 6.0% in 2011 and is projected to slip to 5.2% this year.

It is these divergent trends in growth that have significantly altered the global economic landscape. To put things in perspective, over the four year period from the end of 2007 through to 2011, only four of the G7 economies have regained their pre-recession levels of output. Canada has been the best performer in this group but despite that it is still only 3.1% larger than it was in 2007. The size of Germany's economy, the second best performer, is 1.8% larger while the United States and French economies have just managed to move ahead of where they were in 2007.

Three of the G7 economies – the United Kingdom, Japan, and Italy – have failed to recover the output lost from the 2008-09 recession and find themselves essentially stuck in what amounts to a long drawn-out economic slump. The UK economy is 2.6% smaller than it was in the pre-recession peak year of 2007, Japan's is 4.2% smaller, and Italy's is 4.7% smaller (see Table 2).

In contrast to the G7 countries, the production of goods and services is bigger today in all the E7 economies than it was in 2007. China's economy is 44.6% larger than it was before the crisis and despite a slowing down of growth its GDP is likely to expand by another 8.2% this year. Similarly, India's economy is 34.6% larger, Indonesia's is 25.2% and Brazil's is 16.5% bigger. Even Mexico's economy, which is 3.9% larger and, therefore is the E7's worst performer, has outperformed every single member of the G7.

The major advanced economies now face years of struggle and none of them are likely to see a return to pre-crisis rates of growth for the next few years. Indeed, several of the G7 economies including Britain, France, Germany, and Italy could be heading back into recession as the recovery is increasingly showing signs of coming unstuck. Unemployment is rising again in Europe, retail sales are falling, and although inflation has started to edge down it still remains above central bank targets. Moreover, the need to reduce budget deficits and reign in unsustainable debt-to-GDP ratios – which are at alarmingly high levels in all the G7 economies – risks further entrenching the recessionary conditions in which these economies find themselves stuck.

With the outlook for growth diverging sharply, the G7 countries are split into two camps – the United States and Canada are expected to grow at around 2% in 2012 and Japan's economy is also likely to see its output rise by a similar amount as the country rebuilds from last year's devasting tsumani and earthquake. On the other hand, the outlook for European economies is darkening. With the debt crisis in the eurozone countries continuing to swirl and showing no sign of easing, the IMF in its latest forecast expects the region's GDP to contract by 0.5% this year. Italy, the regions third largest economy is projected to decline by 2.2%, by far the worst performer of any G7 economy.

It is now abundantly clear that, more than two years after the end of the Great Recession, a sustained recovery remains stubbornly elusive for the major advanced economies. Despite massive amounts of monetary and fiscal stimulus, the rate of growth in all of the major advanced economies has been sharply below their respective long-term averages. Moreover, constrained by large debts and deficits, not a single G7 country is expected to achieve growth rates above, or even at, its long-term average for several more years. :nono:

In contrast, since 2007, growth in the economies of the E7, despite the ongoing global turbulence, has not deviated much from their long-term averages. By 2020 this bloc, given the current trends, will surpass the G7 and account for a greater share of world output. This, in turn, will lead to a shift in the current geo-political power structure. Whether this will be muted or more pronounced remains to be seen.

E7 Growth Performance Trumps G7 / Ranga Chand - International Economist and Financial Author
We have new GDP Per Capita on PPP calculation for India considering the year 2012 also, is as below:

now poverty of India is because of its over population. Most of the problems of India is because of its Over Population and India has to reduce its population only. otherwise India has around 350mil Upper Middle Class, more than total population in 1947, whose per capita income on PPP is similar to the Very High HDI countries like Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia etc. one day I calculated as below:-

first, we find GDP on PPP of India was $4.45tn in 2011 but its still manipulated by the US/UK since 2007. as, till 2006, we had a different way of measuring GDP on PPP which used to include estimated undocumented part of GDP also. and I remember, this way GDP of high population 'developing' countries was around 50% to 80% higher, and for the middle order countries like Brazil/Turkey it was around 10% higher. and for the developed nations, the difference was hardly around 1% to 3% by that "Old Method" which was in application till 2006. like as below:

"There are, however, practical difficulties in deriving GDP at PPP, and we now have two different estimates of the PPP conversion factor for 2005, India's GDP at PPP is estimated at $ 5.16 trillion or $ 3.19 trillion depending on whether the old or new conversion factor is used," it said.

It's official: India's a trillion-$ economy - Times Of India
means, GDP of India on PPP was already $5.16tn in 2006. again we have India's growth rate since 2007 as below:

India GDP Annual Growth Rate

here we find, "Average Growth Rate" of India from first quarter of 2007 till the December quarter 2012, stood at around 7.7%, on 'annual' basis. hence considering GDP on PPP of India at $5.16tn in 2006 by Old Method, we may calculate its value by 2012, after 6 years since early 2007, as below:

GDP on PPP of India by end 2012 = 5.16*1.077*1.077*1.077*1.077*1.077*1.077= $8.053tn

but we would also get to know that PPP value consider value of goods and serivces in US$ term, means we would include the factor of inflation of United States also. and even if we consider average 2.0% inflation of US for those six year in between early 2007 to 2012, with considering an overall factor of just 1.10 this way, then GDP on PPP of India comes around = 8.053* 1.1= $8.86tn by 2012. and it still hasn't included 'Value Added' effects also........

again, we know that share of agriculture was around 17% in India's GDP in 2012. therefore, we find share of agriculture in indian economy, 0.17 * 8.86= $1.506 trillions, on which 50% population of india is dependent. means around 600mil people based on agriculture in india have per capita income around = $2,500 on PPP by 2012, which is itself similar to the lower middle order countries.

this way, 8.858 - 1.50 = $7.36tn is left for rest of 600mil people based in industry and service in India, with per capita income of around $12,366 on PPP which is higher than Brazil..........

again, we have news that 25% of the population of cities are either in slum or in bit better condition only. so we would consider per capita income of 300mil living in cities in low condition at hardly $3,000 which takes a share of $900bil from its GDP. hence we are then left with around 7.36 - 0.90 = $6.46tn, around, for rest of 300 mil people living in cities, the so called Middle Class of India with per capita income around $21,533 on PPP this way.

but it is estimated that out of total 600mil people based in agriculture sector, it also has around 50mil Lower Middle Class with Per Capita Income around $12,000 on PPP. (as we know that agriculture has higher share of 'undocumented' part, with that, Agriculture also has higher share of non-taxable business of India.) so we find total middle class of India around 350mil with per capita income around $20,000 on PPP which is similar to Very High HDI countries like Argentina, Poland, Saudi Arabia etc, which is more than total population of India at the time of freedom in 1947 :ranger:

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15-10-2012

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73rd Jakarta $,2099

World's most expensive cities
Mumbai, Delhi office rentals top Shanghai, New York
Jul 25, 2012

MUMBAI: Office rentals in Mumbai and Delhi continue to be among the highest in the world, beating the likes of New York, Washington or Shanghai despite a depreciating rupee. Renting office space in Mumbai and Delhi costs over $65 and nearly $73 per square meter a month, while the same costs $63 in New York $48 in Washington and $41 in Shanghai, property consultancy firm DTZ said in a report.

Mumbai, Delhi office rentals top Shanghai, New York - Economic Times
 

hello_10

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Global Packaging Survey 2013 - Economic Outlook in BRIC
Publication date: January 2013

http://www.reportlinker.com/p01085022-summary/Global-Packaging-Survey-Economic-Outlook-in-BRIC.html

Product Synopsis
"Global Packaging Industry Survey 2013: Economic Outlook in BRIC" is a new report by Canadean that provides the reader with an extensive and authoritative analysis of the economic outlook in BRIC for 2013. Furthermore, this report grants access to the opinions and strategies of business decision makers and competitors in regard to the growth prospects of the four largest emerging economies, and examines their actions surrounding business opportunities in these countries in 2013. In addition, the global packaging industry survey report provides a comprehensive account of the opinions conveyed by executives to help the reader to judge which of the BRIC nations could really be the drivers of the global economy in 2013. The report also provides access to information categorized by company type, region, and company turnover.

Introduction and Landscape

This report is the result of an extensive survey drawn from Canadean's exclusive panel of leading global packaging industry companies; it identifies respondents' current business scenarios with BRIC nations and demonstrates respondents' intentions of changes in business dynamics during 2013. Furthermore, the report tracks the leading business concerns that affect business with BRIC nations and understands respondents' willingness for business with BRIC nations in 2013.

What is the current market landscape and what is changing?

The survey reflects that both packaging industry buyer and supplier respondents acknowledge 'India' and 'China' as the key BRIC nations for their current business operations; in addition, respondents expect a positive economic outlook for BRIC in 2013.

What are the key drivers behind recent market changes?

Both buyers and suppliers identify that the 'policy towards foreign investment' will improve significantly in the BRIC nations.

What makes this report unique and essential to read?

"Global Packaging Industry Survey 2013: Economic Outlook in BRIC" is a new report by Canadean that provides the reader with an extensive and authoritative analysis of the economic outlook in BRIC for 2013. This report identifies respondents' current business scenario with BRIC nations and demonstrates respondents' intentions of changes in business dynamics during 2013. In addition, the global packaging industry survey report provides a comprehensive account of the opinions conveyed by executives to help the reader to judge which of the BRIC nations could really be the drivers of the global economy in 2013.

Key Features and Benefits
To identify the perceptions of respondents about the intensity of current business with BRIC nations, and explore the change in business conditions and their influence on BRIC nations in 2013.

Analyzes the business expectations of global packaging industry respondents within the BRIC nations.

Uncovers the key issues and challenges that restrain respondents from doing business with BRIC nations.

Identifies the economic outlook for the BRIC nations in 2013.

To understand the expected changes in business volumes with Brazil, Russia, India, and China in 2013.

Key Market Issues

In total, 80% of respondents from Asia-Pacific declare that they currently operate their business in 'India', while 54% from Europe operate their business in 'Russia'.

Respondents from small and large companies indicate high growth in 'Brazil', while respondents from medium-sized companies acknowledge 'India' and 'China' as the key growth markets for business expansions in 2013.

Regardless of regional classification across all BRIC nations, respondents highlight that their companies do not plan to do business with BRIC nations in 2013 as it is 'not part of their current business strategy'.

Respondents from North America, Europe, and the Rest of the World identify 'physical infrastructure' as a key attribute that is expected to improve considerably within the BRIC nations in 2013.

Analysis reveals that 44%, 42%, and 37% of respondents from the buyer segment expressed that they 'expect an improvement' in the general state of the economy in Brazil, India, and China in 2013 respectively.

Key Highlights

In total, 57% and 56% of supplier respondents consider 'India' and 'China' to be the most significant BRIC markets.

Canadean's industry survey reveals that buyer respondents give comparatively more preference for doing business with 'Brazil', 'Russia', and 'China' than 'India' over the next 12 months.

Of supplier respondents, 'unfavorable government policies' and 'regulatory changes' are considered the key barriers for business with BRIC nations in 2013.

In total, 61% of buyer respondents envisage the 'policy towards foreign investment' to improve in Brazil in 2013.

Overall, 46% of buyer respondents state that there are 'no major changes expected' in the future economic outlook of Russia.

http://www.reportlinker.com/p01085022-summary/Global-Packaging-Survey-Economic-Outlook-in-BRIC.html
 
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hello_10

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I made a post relating to a comparison of BRIC and G7 as below. I would like to keep its record on DFI also as below: :ranger:

BRIC Vs G7

I myself find 5% growth rate for a country like India has the same meaning as 0.5% growth rate for US, Western Europe. now, you are based in US and I myself have lived in western nations for long and we do know that India has people in slum as they dont get welfare like US, otherwise at least 30% people of US will also come to slums? like, around 47 millions people in US are based on Food Stamp, 41 % people don't pay tax as they simply don't work,
check- The real jobs numbers: 41% of America unemployed, 1 in 3 doesn't want work at all — RT .
with that, around $750 billion is required for Social Security with around $810 billions for Medical security, which makes the US borrow at least $1.2 trillions every year, making them having around $7.2 trillions more debt since early 2008. while their economy grew by around 2.8% only on real term since then. as now the US's firms are meant for generating employment only, they don't pay high tax any more.
check- U.S. National Debt Clock : Real Time
while total infrastructure expanses of India for the next 5 years is hardly around $1.0 trillion, and if you invest $7.2 trillions in India then it will make India equal to US in terms of level of Infrastructure. while if 400 millions people of India are in slum then its because they dont get Social Security+ Free Medical like US, makes sense? remember, US borrowed $7.2 trillions national debt since early 2008 which is gone now and now they have to borrow again to maintain peace in their society who may get violent if they dont get Welfare, with the fact that US is already known as the home of around 1 of 4 prison population of the world. richness of US+Eurozone is now based on the extent they may borrow debt otherwise they will not only have a big population in slum but an expected Civil War also there. US, the home of mostly armed people itself .....

=> BRIC/E7 is the group of the "developing nations" who would at least grow by 5% on long run, as they are developing nations, even if they may not be able to have the high growth, they had for past 8-10 years, in case of any sudden fall of US EU. but it will be the case when US EU will have more to worry about?????? Eurozone is still 2% less than its peak of 2008, with double of their debt level while US's economy might be around 3% higher, with 4% more population and around $7.2 trillions more national debt since early 2008. even if the current trend continues, OECD may hardly maintain close to 0% growth during this decade, if they may avoid any sudden fall by borrowing more debts...... Jim O'Neill do need to have more time to think about that certain circumstance and its related consequence on US EU. as borrowing debt on long run may only help OECD economies survive for few more years, but its certainly not case they would wish for. as falling from a height of debt will be deserter for these so called industrialized nations who have lost their most of industries to the same BRIC/E7........ Jim O'Neill will have to have more time to think about US EU itself in future.......
 
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India services PMI rises to one-year high in January

The country's services sector grew at the fastest fastest pace in the past 12 months in January driven by an increase in new business orders, the HSBC purchasing managers index (PMI) data said today.

The growth in the country's services sector, which makes up for nearly 60 per cent of the country's economic output, witnessed significant pick up in new orders. :thumb:

Besides, the private sector employment activity also increased for eleventh month running, it said.

The HSBC Services Business Activity Index rose to 57.5 in January, up from 55.6 in December, signalling a sharp expansion

in output, and one that was the fastest since January last year. :thumb:

"Service sector activity continued to pick up pace led by a faster inflow of new business," HSBC Chief Economist for India & ASEAN Leif Eskesen said.

Growth in activity has how been sustained for 15 successive months in this sector but services firm were a little less optimistic about the outlook for the sector. The the degree of confidence of the services firm was the lowest registered in three months.

Overall, services firms in India remained optimistic regarding activity levels in the upcoming year, with around 42 per cent of services companies predicting overall activity at their units to increase, while just 3 per cent forecasting a decline.

Input prices at private sector companies in India rose for the 46th successive month during January, though the rate of price rise was much weaker than a year ago.

"Inflation readings held broadly steady, with fuel, raw material and labour cost pressures still simmering," Eskesen said adding that "these numbers underscore the need for the RBI to approach policy easing with caution".

The Reserve Bank of India cut interest rates on January 29 for the first time in nine months, in a move to propel economic growth by easing fund flow to perk up consumption and investment demand.

The bank also lowered country's GDP forecast to 5.5 per cent in 2012-13 as against 5.8 per cent estimated earlier.

Earlier, an HSBC survey had shown that the growth of country's manufacturing sector slowed to a three month low in January, primarily due to moderation in new orders and power outages during the month.

Accordingly, the HSBC India Composite Output Index - which maps both the manufacturing and services index – stood at 56.3 in January, unchanged from December's reading. :thumb:


Services PMI rose to 12-month high in Jan: HSBC

(Reuters) Activity in India's service sector expanded at the fastest pace in a year last month, driven by rising foreign orders, but businesses were a little less optimistic about the future, a survey showed on Tuesday.

The HSBC Markit services Purchasing Managers' Index, which gauges business activity from a survey of over 400 companies ranging from banks to hospitals, jumped to 57.5 in January from 55.6.

The services PMI has held above 50, the level that divides growth and contraction, for over a year, even though India appears set to finish the 2012/13 fiscal year with its slowest economic growth rate in a decade.

Services make up over 60 percent of Asia's third-largest economy. Some of India's top services exports are software, back-office support and banking services. "Service sector activity continued to pick up pace led by a faster inflow of new business," said Leif Eskesen, HSBC's chief economist for India and Southeast Asia, in a release.

The new business sub-index jumped to 58.3, the highest since August 2011, prompting firms to step up the pace of hiring :thumb:, although not at a very strong rate. Although companies were optimistic about the future, the business expectations index fell slightly from December.

The survey also showed input and output prices rising at a similar pace to the prior month, though much weaker than a year ago.

Wholesale price inflation eased to a three-year low of 7.18 percent in December, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to cut its key lending rate by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent last week.

"Inflation readings held broadly steady, with fuel, raw material and labour cost pressures still simmering. These numbers underscore the need for the RBI to approach policy easing with caution," said HSBC's Eskesen.

The central bank is expected to cut the repo rate by another 75 basis points to 7 percent by September.

Manufacturing activity grew in January at its slowest pace in three months, a similar survey showed last week.

India services PMI rises to one-year high in January: HSBC Markit - Indian Express
 

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