Brazil's polls 2014

Discussion in 'Americas' started by IBSA, Oct 6, 2014.

  1. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    Dilma Rousseff on course for first-round lead in Brazil election
    Polls show president is within touching distance of outright victory, but fight for second place is too close to call

    Jonathan Watts in Rio de Janeiro
    The Guardian, Sunday 5 October 2014 19.40 BST


    [​IMG]
    Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff shakes hands with supporters during a rally in Porto Alegre. Photograph: Jackson Ciceri/AFP/Getty Images

    Brazil’s president Dilma Rousseff was on course for victory in a first-round presidential election on Sunday night, but may well need a second round in three weeks’ time to secure a second term in office.

    All indications in the runup to the poll were that Rousseff would secure more than 40% of the vote. The race for second place – and the right to challenge her in a runoff – was too close to call before the publication of official results.

    As the nation’s 143 million voters went to the polls, the front pages of almost every newspaper reported that the former environment minister Marina Silva, who was the frontrunner at one stage, had fallen into third place with 24% behind the pro-business Social Democratic party candidate Aécio Neves, with 27%.

    While the gap between the two is within the margin of error, the surprisingly steep decline of Silva’s vote in recent weeks underscores the volatility of public opinion during one of the most dramatic campaigns in recent memory.

    Initial reports suggested voting was peaceful and orderly. Television channels broadcast images of the candidates going to the ballot box with all of the three main contenders expressing confidence that they would be victorious.

    Silva posted images of her in a campaign van on the way to a polling station in her home state of Acre, in the Amazon. “Bring on the second round. Have the courage to change Brazil,” she wrote.

    Buoyed by a last-minute surge, the Neves team appeared to put more campaigners on the streets outside the polling stations. Every car had at least Neves two pamphlets under their windscreen wipers and part-time staff handed out cards to every passerby willing to take one.

    The Social Democratic candidate tweeted images of himself voting with his wife and a repeated call for votes to push him into a runoff.

    “This is how the dreams of Brazil can be realised,” he wrote. “I have great faith and great respect, but I’m ready to get to the second round and to govern Brazil”.

    The president’s campaign team tried to mobilise voters through social network blitzes.

    “We have carried out a peaceful social revolution over the past 12 years to diminish longstanding social inequality in Brazil,” tweeted Rousseff in a reference to the three consecutive terms of Workers’ party presidents. “We took the hunger map of Brazil made by the United Nations and we lifted billions of Brazilians to university. To complete that, we are now preparing Brazil of a new cycle of even more profound change.”

    With more television time and campaign funds, Rousseff’s centre-left Workers’ party and Neves’ centre-right Social Democratic party have focused their attacks on Silva, who has promised to break the decades-old stranglehold of the two main parties with a focus on sustainable development.

    Early in the campaign, Silva benefited from outsider status and sympathy after the death of her running mate Eduardo Campos in a plane crash. But, as the vote approached, the debate became less about emotions, change and personality and more about traditional left-right economic policies.

    Dilma has solid backing from benefactors of the Bolsa Família poverty relief programme, which covers more than a fifth of voters, and Aécio is the first choice of business.

    At the polling station in the Colégio Angelorum school in Gloria, Rio de Janeiro, several voters acknowledged that their opinions had shifted away from Silva in recent weeks.

    “I was going to vote for Marina, but she was terrible in the debates. She looked very confused,” said Aline Blajchman, a community care worker who said she was supporting the Green candidate Eduardo Jorge.

    Of the dozen or so people approached by the Guardian, a majority said they would vote for Neves, who has benefited from a strong performance in the televised debates and the country’s biggest campaign machine.

    “He is the most capable and knowledgeable of the three candidates – the safest pair of hands,” said Silvana Cutrim, a shopkeeper. “Dilma is just an agitator and Marina is too unreliable.”

    Others expressed dissatisfaction with all three of the leading candidates, but – with voting obligatory under Brazilian law – said they would opt for continuity.

    “I will vote for Dilma. She’s bad, but the other candidates are worse,” said Jaime Souza, a vegetable stall holder.

    The election is one of the world’s great exercises in democracy with 450,000 polling stations stretching from the Atlantic seaboard to deep inside the Amazon rainforest.

    As well as choosing from the 11 presidential candidates, voters are selecting 27 state governors, 513 congressmen, 1,069 regional lawmakers and a third of the senate.

    With voting carried out by machine, the results are expected within a few hours of the close of the polls. The second round will take place on 26 October if the winning candidate does not secure 50% of the vote.

    Dilma Rousseff on course for first-round lead in Brazil election | World news | The Guardian
     
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  3. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    There will be second round between Dilma Rousseff (Workers Party) and Aecio Neves (Brazilian Social-Democracy Party)

    With 95% of ballots accounted Dilma Rousseff has 41% against 33% for Aecio Neves.

    Marina Silva of Brazilian Socialist Party lost votes in the final days before the poll and had stay in third position with 21%.
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2014
  4. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    In my opinion this elections were the more 'fascist' of the last years. There are no one good candidate for citizens to vote, so the people voted in who they think the 'less worst'. But what each one understands by the 'less worst' varies. Rejection against this or that candidate was the mainly feeling and criteria for vote.

    For this the violence of this election. Opposition wants to defeat the current ruling party, but they dont offers good option to vote. So it is likely the Workers Party, through its candidate Dilma Rousseff, continues ruling the country for the despair of someones.

    In India the rejection to INC dominion was fundamental to Modi victory. But here in Brazil we dont have a Modi to channel to votes for him, so the votes against government share themselves for several other candidates.
     
  5. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    So Dilma Rousseff will probably be the President. Good for Brazil.

    @IBSA, yes, not having good alternatives sometimes forces people to elect the least of the bad apples. Not that I have a negative opinion about Dilma Rousseff in particular. I think the lack of alternative choices is a major problem in many countries, especially the US, where, whether it is the Republicans of the Democrats, they both seem to follow more or less the same policies. This problem was also felt in India at certain points in time, and no matter who won, the policies always revolved around populism, although now people are really optimistic about the new leadership.
     
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  6. Ashutosh Lokhande

    Ashutosh Lokhande Senior Member Senior Member

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    you guyz dont have an option of NOTA (none of the above) while voting?
     
  7. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    .............
     
    Last edited: Oct 6, 2014
  8. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    We have a white button in the eletronic ballots called 'invalid' for who wants to vote in no one candidate. But in this case the vote isnt accounted in the final results. Only the valid votes are considered.

    Vote is obligatory, except for whom are outside its poll station, which have the possibility for justify its absence.
     
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  9. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    Exactly. In Brazil recently it is seen a polarization between Workers' Party (PT) and Brazilian Social-Democracy's Party (PSDB) as they were the far opposite each other. But in actuality they are similar in their policies, 'flour of same bag'. There is a empoverishment of political activity, since Brazilian democracy was early a multi-party system, where candidates of several parties can to compete with real chances of win. And now basically only who concurs by PT or PSDB has real chance for win, with the others parties serving to steal votes of the first two parties and damage one of them depending of their political alliance. So, our system is becoming similar to USA system with Democrats (PT) or Republicans (PSDB).
     
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  10. amoy

    amoy Senior Member Senior Member

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    earlier reports seemed to say Marina Silva of BSP had a good chance to enter the 2nd round. it also indicated she a protestant (?) had the support from the rising evangelical community though Catholics is still dominant for now.

    Sent from my 5910 using Tapatalk 2
     
  11. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    After Eduardo Campos' death, Marina Silva that was his vice-president candidate had a big support in the reports. She seemed winning Dilma Rousseff even in the first round, but in the follows reports she has fallen a bit and results appointed to a second round between Dilma and Marina.

    In the eve days of election, Aecio Neves has grown and Marina Silva went bad in the media debates. I think was due this that she lost.
     
  12. Dhairya Yadav

    Dhairya Yadav Regular Member

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    Will the FIFA massacre have any effect on Govt. Formation ? :p
     
  13. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    Brazil to elect president today in run-off vote
    Reuters | Oct 26, 2014, 04.52 AM IST

    BRASILIA : Opposition candidate Aecio Neves is running neck-and-neck with leftist incumbent Dilma Rousseff on the eve of a run-off vote that will decide Brazil's presidential election, a poll published on Saturday said.

    Brazilians vote on Sunday in the closest election in decades between a pro-business senator who is promising to revive a stagnant economy and a Workers' Party president who vows to protect social programmes that have lifted millions from poverty.

    Neves has 45.3% voter support against 44.7% for President Rousseff, the survey by the smaller MDA research company said.

    Brazil's more closely watched polling firms are giving Rousseff a 6- to 8-percentage point lead. Excluding undecided voters, spoiled and blank survey responses, Neves has 50.3% of the valid votes against 49.7% for Rousseff, the MDA showed. The gap between them is well within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points and is considered a statistical tie. The MDA poll commissioned by the transport industry lobby CNT surveyed 2,002 people between Thursday and Friday.

    In a last attempt to sway some 10% of undecided voters, the candidates traded accusations over political corruption on Friday in the final television debate.

    Brazil to elect president today in run-off vote - The Times of India
     
  14. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    2o round is this sunday, October 26.

    Brazil is highly divided between the two candidates. Last opinion polls show a bit edge of Dilma Roussef (PT) with circa two points ahead of Aécio Neves (PSDB). Considering the error margin, they are technically in draw. Both them have real chances to win.

    I dont risks any opinion about who will be the winner until the final official results
     
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  15. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    The cashmere revolution

    [​IMG]

    BUSINESS barons and financiers are not known for taking to the streets. Yet on October 22nd thousands turned out in the centre of São Paulo in support of Aécio Neves, the centre-right challenger to President Dilma Rousseff, of the left-wing Workers’ Party (PT), in a tight run-off election on October 26th. Together with spouses and children they sauntered down São Paulo’s Avenida Faria Lima, a thoroughfare conveniently located close to many of their offices.

    It was a sight to behold—perhaps unprecedented in election history, and not just in Brazil. Besuited types with crisp, initialed shirts toting “Aécio” flags. Snazzily clad socialites, wrapped in pashminas to keep out the unseasonable chill, chanting anti-PT slogans. Everyone snapping selfies with pricey iPhones (most Brazilian rallies are cheaper Samsung affairs). The only thing missing from this “cashmere revolution” was champagne flutes—and Mr Neves himself, campaigning in his home state of Minas Gerais.

    “Most of Brazilian GDP is here,” observed one private-equity boss with four Aécio stickers on his checked shirt, shortly after bumping into a pal from a big American technology firm. In that sense, the event played right into PT propaganda, which relentlessly paints Mr Neves as a pawn of the rich elite. On October 21st Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, Ms Rousseff’s popular predecessor and political patron renowned for his earthiness, went so far as to compare Mr Neves’s Party of Brazilian Social Democracy (PSDB) to the Nazis for its apparent intolerance of the less advantaged. (Mr Neves had previously compared Ms Rousseff’s formidable marketers to Joseph Goebbels.)

    The cashmere revolutionaries seemed unfazed. They are fed up with Ms Rousseff’s interventionism and what many see as irresponsible macroeconomic policies which have pushed Brazil into a rut of low growth and high inflation. Most are desperate to see the back of her and hope that their show of support will help tip the race in their market-friendlier candidate’s favour. On Faria Lima, the local boss of a European multinational (sporting a perfectly tailored suit, needless to say) conceded that the rally may lend ammunition to the PT. But, he added, “We are here to show what we think.”

    Brazil's presidential election: The cashmere revolution | The Economist
     
  16. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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  17. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    With 99,98% of poll stations accounted, Dilma Rousseff (PT) has 51,64% of votes against 48,36% of Aécio Neves (PSDB) and is the winner.

    As I said, and results show it, Brazil is highly divided. Dilma won with a little edge. I hope this climate of mutual hostility between Brazilians in Facebook to finish after the election. Now is time of national reconciliation.

    :brazil:
     
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  18. nrupatunga

    nrupatunga Senior Member Senior Member

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    Dilma Rousseff narrowly wins second term in Brazil
     
  19. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    To say the truth I didnt like none of candidates. I think Dilma Rousseff the least bad, but both the candidates are below the necessities of the charge for President demands. Dilma looks like a manager. To be a minister as she went in Lula's gov this is enough, but to be a President dont. She isnt a true leader. She dont has her own brightness. As former President Fernando Henrique Cardoso (PSDB) said when Dilma Rousseff was elected first time in 2010 "she is like a moon around Lula". Moon is an astro that has no own brightness, its brightness comes from Sun. Former president Lula he is a true leader, the Sun that has transfered brightness - and votes - for Dilma Rousseff.

    Dilma is weak, she suffers with lack of personality. She looks like a Brazilian Manmohan Singh. She dont has balls - this case literally. :rolleyes:
     
  20. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    Completing the previous post, for sake of Brazil-India relations, I think Dilma is the better choice.

    If Aécio Neves had been elected he would lead the country toward economical liberalism, privatization, selling-out the national patrimony for foreigners, and deep relations with USA and Europe. Globalization and Westernization is the PSDB's ideology. In other hand, the PT's ideology looks toward South-South relations more than North-South. This is good for strengthening of the BRICS and IBSA groups.
     
  21. IBSA

    IBSA Regular Member

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    LETTER FROM SOUTH AMERICA

    Brazilian voters faced similar challenges as Indians ‒ but made a completely different choice
    The South American nation reposed its faith in Dilma Rousseff, who has promised to strengthen social welfare schemes and ensure that economic growth is accompanied by justice.

    Shobhan Saxena
    Today · 05:00 am
    [​IMG]

    Much of Ruchir Sharma’s reputation rests on a myth. He is an investment banker who masquerades as a pundit on global politics and economics. In an audacious – and ill-informed – article in the Times of India in June, when the FIFA World Cup was being played in Brazil, the portfolio manager for Morgan Stanley wrote that the “popular anger” against the event in Brazil would lead to the downfall of President Dilma Rousseff in national elections in October. Sharma went on to predict the rise of a Narendra Modi-like figure in Brazil because the country was “crying for a change”.

    “India and Brazil move to a common rhythm,” Sharma wrote in the article, which was widely shared in global financial capitals. "In India, the Commonwealth Games came to be seen as a surprising success, but the scandals helped to ignite an anti-government revolt that culminated in the crushing defeat of the ruling Congress Party in May. A similar scenario could unfold in Brazil."

    Then he made a prophecy. “Many Brazilians see hope for change in the example of India. There, popular disgust with the Congress party’s mismanagement of the economy led to its May defeat at the hands of Narendra Modi, a strongman with a reputation for running an efficient government. Brazilian investors now look at how the stock market has surged behind Modi and figure an opposition win can trigger similar results in Brazil…The leading Brazilian opposition figure is Aecio Neves, who like Modi was a state governor known for getting things done. His finance minister would be Arminio Fraga, a key member of the team that in the 1990s helped contain hyperinflation, at a time when Brazilian businesspeople worry openly that ill-advised government spending is turning their country into 'the next Venezuela'."

    Failed prediction


    But on Sunday night, when the Brazilian election results were announced, Sharma’s prophecy failed. Just as he was factually wrong about “popular anger” against the World Cup and “economic mismanagement”, the New York-based fund manager’s prediction was off the mark too. On Sunday, President Dilma Rousseff of the Workers Party won the re-election with 52% votes and Neves, of deceptively-named Social Democratic Party of Brazil, managed a little over 48% votes. He lost to Rousseff even his home state of Minas Gerais (It would be akin to Modi losing in Gujarat).

    Sharma’s prognostication was quite predictable. It was the prophecy of a Wall Street shark who sees countries as markets that should be run by “business-friendly” regimes and not by governments that believe in spending money on social welfare. The gist of the article was simple: the Rousseff government would play a price for following “socialist policies”, and it was time for the country to change course, like India did in May, by electing a “pro-business” leader.

    This Brazilian election was not just about choosing a new president. It was all about the future course of Brazil as a country. On one side was Rousseff, who is hated by the markets for protecting jobs and expanding social welfare programmes. On the other side was Neves, who is a darling of business lobby groups who expected him to “liberalise” the Brazilian economy. In that sense, this Brazilian election was quite similar to the Indian election.

    Following India

    Just a year ago, Brazil seemed to be following India’s lead. Like Anna Hazare’s anti-corruption movement of 2011, the Brazilian street swelled with anger in June-July 2013. Though there was no Hazare-like leader here, the sentiment on the street and the profile of the “revolutionaries” was similar to that of the “Indian Spring”. Even as the western media was screaming of a “massive unrest” against the government, a survey by Datafolha, one of the biggest market survey firms in Brazil, revealed that the protesters mostly came from the elite: 77% with higher education, 71% first-time protesters and more than 90% white (though they form just 50% of the population). In addition, most rallies were held in the middle-class areas, far from the fringes of the city where the majority of poor, working-class and black people live.

    The similarities didn’t end there. Even the slogans of protest were similar: “Change Brazil” and “I want my country back." Just like India, the beneficiaries of 10 years of economic boom in Brazil were demanding a change in the way their country functioned. The protests in Brazil and the international media coverage it received gave the impression that it was a basket case of poverty. The truth is exactly the opposite. In Brazil, more jobs are being created than US and Europe. Unemployment is down to 5%. In 10 years, the minimum wage has more than tripled. The GDP per capita is $9,000; Brazil has paid all its debts to the IMF; the proportion of debt in relation to GDP has fallen sharply; inflation is around 6%. Social welfare programmes like Bolsa Familia have lifted more than 50 million Brazilians out of poverty. By the end of this year, Brazil will be free of extreme poverty. The fact is that in its 500 years of history, Brazilians never had it so good as today.

    So, what was all the rage about? Wall Street managers like Sharma would blame economic mismanagement (a euphemism for social welfare spending) for the protests. However, by using the country’s economic boom to create equality, Presidents Lula (2003-2010) and Rousseff have done something which was never done in the country’s history. Their policies have given the poor (the majority of whom are black or mixed-race people) a chance to join the Brazilian dream. This has upset the old social order. The business class here constantly complains about the country’s labour laws and how difficult it is to fire workers. Just like the Anna Hazare movement, the “Brazilian Spring” was organised and led by those who have benefitted the most from Brazil’s economic boom – the upper and middle classes – as the poor watched the circus from their favelas on the fringes of big cities.

    Demands for regime change

    With the groundwork for “regime change” done by upper-crust protesters, the global financial markets, international media and domestic newspapers and TV channels turned against the Workers’ Party in the election year, accusing it of corruption and blaming it for “ruining the economy”. Just when Brazil was preparing to vote, the Economist ran an editorial on “Why Brazil should reject Dilma Rousseff and elect Aecio Neves”. Likewise, the Financial Times and other western paper kept hammering the Brazilian government, just like they had done to Manmohan Singh’s government in the months leading up to the Indian election.

    In India, it all went according to the script written by the likes of Sharma. In the face of a combined onslaught from the Wall Street, western newspapers and domestic TV channels, the United Progressive Alliance government began opening up various sectors of Indian economy while cutting down on public spending. But even as story after story in the international media attacked the Brazilian government for being too “protective”, President Rousseff refused to fall into the trap. On the contrary, in her election campaign, she made it clear that Brazil will deepen its social welfare programmes in the coming years. It was not a coincidence that as Rousseff’s popularity grew, the Brazilian stocks fell and the US dollar gained against the Brazilian currency.

    A huge victory

    On Sunday, President Rousseff’s refusal to play ball with the Wall Street manipulators resulted in her victory as those Brazilians who believe in social equality, growth with justice and independent foreign policy rallied behind her, giving her a three-million vote lead over Neves.

    If the Brazilian president had taken the bait and cut down on public spending and opened up some sectors of Brazilian economy to US corporations, just like Manmohan Singh did in his last year in office, Sharma’s dark fantasy might have come true. In that case, Aecio Neves would have been elected the new president. Though Sharma likened Neves to Modi as an “efficient state governor”, he didn’t mention the real similarities between the two leaders. The western media loves to call Neves a “pro-business” leader from a centrist party, but the fact is that his right-wing party used the race card subtly to mobilise the white middle-class by scaring them about the rise of blacks in Brazilian society. (This is not very different from the way the BJP played its growth and communal card in the Indian election).

    Had Neves been elected the Brazilian president, he would have cut government spending and “liberalised” the economy for the benefit of US firms. This is what Sharma was pushing for. In the TOI article, Sharma mentioned economist Arminio Fraga as the magician who would fix the Brazilian economy. He was economical with truth. Fraga’s real face was exposed by Brazilian journalist Pepe Escobar in an article for Russia Today on Monday. “With Neves, Brazil’s future Finance Minister would have been Arminio Fraga, a slick operator who, among other things, ran high-risk funds in emerging markets for George Soros," Escobar wrote. "Fraga is the proverbial Wall Street predator. With him at the Finance Ministry, think J.P. Morgan controlling Brazil’s macroeconomic policy.”

    This is what the Morgan Stanley manager for emerging markets was predicting – or plotting – when he wrote about Rousseff’s imaginary downfall.

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