China's future water war with India - upiasia.com
China's future water war with India
Toronto, ON, Canada, — Is there any end to Chinese ambitions in Asia? China wishes to dominate Asia with blockades, blockages, military diplomacy and political Machiavellism.
China’s building of the port of Gwadar at the mouth of the Persian Gulf in fact is meant to blockade the oil supplies of the world. Its military diplomacy is on display at the Tibet-India border, where for the last ten years it has strengthened its military infrastructure to intimidate India. In its blockage diplomacy, it is planning to divert the flow of the River Brahmaputra, also called the Tsandpo in Tibet, toward China’s northeast, hence in the process starve 100 million people in India.
With a US$2 trillion economy, 1.3 billion souls and a $1,600 per capita GDP, the Chinese consider themselves wealthy. To them India is a poor rival, although India has a US$1 trillion economy, $1,000 per capita GDP and a superior and faster-growing technological sector than China. The Chinese think of India as a minor opponent. Their friendship with Pakistan is a Machiavellian tactic to checkmate India.
The scheme to block and divert the River Brahmaputra shows the Chinese do not care about others, only about themselves. The scheme is foolhardy to begin with. Its environmental impact on Tibet’s economy, ecology and culture is of no consequence to them, however. All they need is additional water to flush the rapidly silting Three Gorges Dam and provide water to the parched northeast.
The net consequence on India will be a manmade disaster. If 50 percent of the river’s water, which flows through the center of India’s northeastern state of Assam, is taken out, the river will become a seasonal ditch. One hundred million souls in India and Bangladesh will lose their livelihood. It will surely start a big new dispute between the two rivals and could eventually lead to a shooting war.
The river begins its journey in the glacier country of western Tibet in close proximity to the sources of other mighty rivers -- the Indus and Sutlej. Its origin is not far from the Indian border in Tibet, in the holy land of Lake Mansrovar and Mount Kailash. The Tsandpo-Brahmaputra travels west for 1,500 kilometers, hugging the northern slopes of the Himalayas through Tibet.
All along its journey it gathers more water and sustains life in Tibet. Because of its remoteness, it has long gone unexplored. The river skirts the last of the Himalayan ranges and turns south into India into Arunachal Pradesh. It later turns west into the plains of the Indian state of Assam. Multiple smaller rivers join it in Arunachal Pradesh to make it into a huge water resource. At about this place the pre-rainy season flow averages well above 120,000 cubic feet per second, rising to 1million cubic feet per second during the heavy monsoon rains.
The Tsandpo begins its long journey at about 13,000 feet and drops to about 5,000 feet in eastern Tibet, before it enters India. Through a series of mysterious falls and gorges, the river manages to drop to about 1,000 feet and then to 500 feet in Assam state. The water flow before the river enters Arunachal Pradesh is about 60,000 cubic feet per second. It is mostly fresh glacial water.
As the river meanders thru Arunachal Pradesh it receives additional water from its tributaries and then in Assam from the discharge of other streams. The 1 million cubic feet per second flow of the Brahmaputra during the rainy season is due to the topography of the land. All the rainfall in the Assam hills is discharged into this river, making it at places 10 kilometers wide. This area is known for the highest rainfall in the world, leading at times to massive flooding in Assam and Bangladesh. Flooding brings misery, but it is also welcomed as it deposits rich nutrients for better crops the following year.
Ever since they occupied Tibet, the Chinese have viewed the Tsandpo-Brahmaputra River as a source of hydroelectric power and a new source of water for the Yangtze River and parched northeast China. Numerous rafting expeditions by the Chinese military were mounted to explore the river, prior to its entry into the deep gorges in India. They were looking for a suitable site to divert the river.
The first hint of this scheme came out in official Chinese newspapers in the 1990s, confirming its intent. A Chinese-inspired paper in Scientific American in June 1996 also confirmed it. The Chinese wished to use the tremendous drop in elevation of about 8,000 feet to generate electricity. According to the Chinese account, 40,000 megawatts could be generated.
Just before it enters India, the river would be diverted through a network of canals, tunnels and pipelines to China’s parched mainland. All the electricity generated would be needed to pump the river into the new system. The advantage to the Chinese would be that the parched northwest may become fertile. Any remaining water could join the Yangtze River to inhibit silting in the Three Gorges Dam.
This scheme is twice as big as the Three Gorges Dam. About half the total capital of about US$40 billion will go to power generation and the rest into dams, diversion canals, pipelines and tunnels. The power generation capital is a net waste, as not 1 kilowatt will benefit the Tibetan populace. All of it will be needed to pump the water through the system.
The Chinese do not undertake any environmental or socioeconomic studies on large projects, lest they discover any negative impact on the environment and people. That is how they built the Three Gorges Dam, against the advice of environmentalists on locating it in a high seismic region. A major earthquake could knock this dam down or damage it. The floods that would follow could bring death and destruction to 200 million people.
The Tsandpo project could bring similar damage to the ecology and people, as well as possible confrontation with India, making it not worth the effort. But the Chinese do not care.
The impact on India and Bangladesh would be tremendous. Assam and part of Bangladesh would lose the capability to grow food. A massive migration toward the rest of India would follow. A wave of 100 million homeless people moving toward India would overwhelm it. India would surely move to prevent this from happening, and a military confrontation could begin.
In this foolhardy scheme the Chinese have counted on their financial and military muscle. They regard India, as stated above, as a poor rival. But with the livelihood of 100 million people impacted, India would muster its own financial, technological and commercial muscle and come out fighting with vigor. This confrontation could be far bigger than the present India-China territorial dispute over the possession of the Tawang tract.
In this scenario, India would have many supporters of its cause. In general, the blocking of naturally flowing rivers has not been taken kindly in human history. The world will support India. China will have a lone supporter in Pakistan.
Today’s Chinese leadership is obstinate, headstrong and overconfident of its prowess. This confidence will have to be tested, if necessary, militarily. A shooting war may follow an attempt to divert the river. In a war of short duration China would have the advantage of better infrastructure close to the border. In a broader, drawn-out war, China would be at a disadvantage as its Tibet rail and road links could be interdicted and the Tibetan population inflamed to expel the Chinese from their land. It may become a lose-lose situation for China.
Before a shooting war began, India could make its intentions known by a display of its own military prowess in the border region and in the Indian Ocean. India would have international law on its side.
U.S. and Russian support would be critical in this situation. The United States could tie down Chinese forces on their eastern seaboard opposite Taiwan, and the Russians along the Ussuri River border. As far as Pakistan is concerned, it would have to be prevented from making mischief along India’s western border. U.S. support would be needed to keep Pakistan in check.
In summary, a bigger dispute may emerge along the India-Tibet border in the form of Chinese mischief. Let us hope that sane counsel prevails within the Chinese ruling clique and the country does not embark upon the Tsandpo River diversion project.
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