Brahmaputra diversion by China: How should India respond?

[Rage]

If India wants to build other dams downstream of the planned Chinese dam, what use would it do?

Also, If there is a serious consideration of the pre-emption law on behalf of the GOI, would India put up a serious effort to do so? I only ask because construction has already commenced on the Chinese side and I have not seen any plans on the Indian side besides talk.

You're damn right we will.

I'd like to see an official source corroborating your statement that "construction has already commenced on the Chinese side"... moreover that the Brahmaputra will be diverted to its arid North, because from the very recent article (May 26, 2009) quoting former Water minister Wang Shucheng, it is not purported to be. Moreover if construction has indeed commenced, it has commenced very recently, since it was slated to begin only in 2009 in the Tibetan areas of Pema Koe (this is confirmed both by officially issued statements by the CCP and by a Chinese-inspired dissertation to that effect in the 'Scientific American').

As for the 'Indian commitment' to pre-emption, your answer lies here. Dams our something we definitely don't take lightly. The following is an article from early 2008:

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Arunachal Pradesh, India Part 1- The Lohit River

Posted by Ebb and Flow Productions at 1/4/2008 12:01 AM

Arunachal Pradesh is located in far eastern India snuggled between Burma, Bhutan, Tibet and Bangladesh. The region is home to over 10 distinct indigenous tribes of people each with their own language and religion. Geographically the state is dominated by the mighty Brahmaputra River, its large tributaries flow from Tibet through the Himalayas and into the gigantic flood plain down below. The Lohit, the Dibang, and the Siang Rivers form the mighty flood plain that is known locally as the Brahmaputra River.

India has 168 large hydro-electric projects planned in this region which is the "future powerhouse" of one of the world’s most populous countries. India is developing at a rapid pace and has over 1 billion people which make it extremely energy hungry. The state of Arunachal Pradesh is naturally attractive to the power companies for hydro-electric power generation because of the large gradient, the huge volume of water and relatively low local population. Unfortunately for whitewater boaters these factors all make the rivers of Arunachal some of the most amazing river trips in the world.

Our first river trip in Arunachal was the Lohit River. The Lohit originates in Tibet and flows through the Himalayas and helps form the mighty Brahmaputra. The Lohit canyon has many villages where the people live as subsistence farmers and hunters. The canyon is home of leopards, monkeys, deer, and many other species including the rodents of unusual size (ROUS.) The trip took us 5 days and everyone agreed that it was one of the best runs we had ever done, amazing scenery, clean water, friendly people, classic whitewater, and perfect weather. We had an estimated 8,000 cfs at the take-out which seemed to be an ideal flow. The team included: Charlie Center, Erick Conklin, Seth Warren, Ben Stookesbury, Lama Kundun, Katie Scott, Lizzy English and I.

After 5 epic days on the river we reached the take-out at the mouth of the river exhausted and in awe when reality set in. We were met by our shuttle drivers and a team of engineers and surveyors. The engineers were working on the design of the lower of the two huge dams planned on the Lohit. The lower of the two dams, one of the engineers explained, would be about 600 feet high, produce 12,000 megawatts and be the smaller of the two dams. Construction will start in as soon as 2 years and the both dams together will effectively flood the entire canyon.

Scott interviewing an engineer about the dam project at the take-out.


The Last Descent Project: Arunachal Pradesh, India Part 1- The Lohit River

 

[SATISH]

Indo-Pak Water Disputes: Incremental Progress
Pia Malhotra
Research Intern, IPCS
e-mail: [email protected]

India and Pakistan recently concluded the annual talks at the Permanent Commission of Indus Water (1-4 June), the first such meeting between India and Pakistan after the Mumbai terror attacks. The sharing of river waters has emerged in recent months as a major irritant in bilateral relations, which were gravely soured by the Mumbai attacks.

After four days of grueling parleys, the talks were largely a failure with both sides being unable to reach an agreement, on the Chenab’s water flow and the Kishanganga Power Project. As the talks ended, Foreign Secretary Shivshankar Menon suggested that "Pakistan has assumed that India has held back water. But we have told them that this assumption is not correct as flow of (Chenab) water last year was low anyway." Meanwhile, a Water Resources Ministry official said that the "[d]ispute still persists on the demand of compensation by Pakistan."

What implications does this meeting hold for India and Pakistan’s ongoing water disputes, if any? What were the decisions take with regard to the Kishanganga Power Project? Most importantly, were the two countries able to decide on the way forward?

For the 2009 Indus Water Commission, Syed Jamaat Ali Shah led the Pakistani delegation to the meeting while G Aranganathan led the Indian side. The meeting discussed 14 agenda items at the meeting including the use of modern technology for sharing river water data, the contentious Kishanganga dam project and other water-sharing issues.

There was disagreement on issues like Baglihar, Kishanganga and Uri-II dams. Pakistan has been demanding compensation for the choking of water supply of the Chenab River by New Delhi to fill the newly constructed Baglihar Dam in Indian-controlled Kashmir. Pakistan has claimed that it suffered crop losses because of reduced water flow and demanded compensation. India has rejected the charge. In 2005, Pakistan had sought the World Bank's intervention to stop the construction of the Baglihar dam and the hydroelectricity power project. The project was, however, cleared by the Bank but India was asked to restrict the overall height of the dam.

Pakistan’s Foreign Office spokesman, Abdul Basit, recently said Pakistan was considering various options, including the appointment of a neutral expert or arbitrator by the World Bank, to resolve differences with India on the sharing of river waters and the Kishanganga hydro-power project.
Under the Indus Water Treaty, Pakistan has to receive 55,000 cusecs of water, but authorities there complain that this year Pakistan's share was drastically reduced, causing damage to crops. They claim that Pakistan only received around 13,000 cusecs during the winter and a maximum of 29,000 cusecs during the summer. This averages around 22,000 to 25,000 cusecs - less than half of Pakistan's share.

On the first day of the meeting, different year-long activities of the Commission from 1 April 2008 to 31 March 2009 were reviewed and a report was submitted to the Governments of Pakistan and India on 1 June. Meteorological data and weather forecasts were discussed. Representatives from the Water Resources and Power Development Authority and technical experts were part of the Pakistan delegation. Pakistan also raised the issue of India building the Nimo Bazgo hydel power project on the Indus in Ladakh. This project is a part of Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s reconstruction package with an amount of Rs. 3.83 billion earmarked for the construction.

Even though the countries were unable to reach an agreement on the major irritants an agenda for future cooperation was created. Both the countries decided to strengthen the Permanent Indus Water Commission by incorporating a clause to include issues like climate change, global warming and melting of glaciers in its ambit and cooperate on issues beyond the parameters of the Indus Water Treaty. India agreed to provide flood data to Pakistan between 1 July and 10 October on a daily basis. It was also suggested at the meeting to use the telemetric data-sharing system via satellites enabling automatic data transfer right from the dams. Shah said that future cooperation would include addressing the problems of sedimentation of rivers as well as global warming and studying climate change effects on the Indus river system.

Articles #2888 , Indo-Pak Water Disputes: Incremental Progress

 

[Koji]

You're source is from a white water kayaking blog...and even then it says that construction won't start for at least 2 years. The source you posted earlier said that Chinese construction would start in early 2009.

I found this: https://forums.yaleglobal.yale.edu/thread.jspa?threadID=1491
It says "unofficially" that tunneling has already begun.

And all other articles I have read report a 2009 start date.

 

[kuku]

NHPC started construction of its projects in 2009, I worked on the EIA clearance for one of them.
The construction of the several hydroelectric projects in AP will have to be paced because these projects can cause a lot of stress on the local ecosystem.

I do not understand the PRC part of it, the river on their side goes through incredibly complex geology, why are they interested in making a hydroelectric project on that site (unless they just want to do it for the sake of it).

 

[Yusuf]

A tool in the hands of the Chinese to hurt India.

 

[Koji]

Kuku,

Do you have a source saying that construction has begun?

The Chinese "reasons" (take that as you may) are that they want to irrigate their land which is arid in that particular region and for hydroelectric power.

 

[Singh]

First we must distinguish what news is for domestic consumption and what news is meant for international consumption.

Lets lay down the facts about IWT

1. Pak has claims to all western rivers, India has claim to all eastern rivers
2. India's claim to western rivers is limited to building hydroelectric plants, using it to benefit local population and developing water sports.

Lets lay down some facts about climate

1. By now even moderately informed citizen are aware of global warming, receding glacier levels etc. Quite simply what is happening is that the level or the amount of water in snow fed rivers is depleting decade on decade.
2. Many of Pak's hydroelectric plants fed by rivers originating outside India are operating suboptimally if they are operating at all due to the climatic change.
3. Similarly the amount of water in the Indian rivers going to Pak has reduced considerably as well.

Lets clear out some facts about Pak

1. Pakistan's population has increased over 5 times that of the combined population of undivided Pakistan in a mere 6 decades. Increasing the need of water.
2. Increasingly agriculture in teh subcontinent has shifted from a reliance on rain water to reliance on irrigation. Punjab region of Pak being a important fertile region has got lion's share of water meant for all of Pakistan depriving its southern neighbor Sindh of much needed water.
In fact the Sindh is getting only a third to a fifth of the water that Punjab(Pak) is obliged to release.
3. Due to reduced flow of rivers in the lower basin, severe ecological, economic, social problems have occured. For a more detailed analysis Link here

Lets lay down some facts about Indian role

1. India is unconditionally allowed to exploit the western rivers to benefit local population, develop water sports and hydroelectric potential
2. India is granted all rights over waters of the eastern rivers, which it can and should in due course divert via canals to maximise their potential
3. By developing dams and canals India is not only benefiting the local population and tapping into the hydroelectric potential but at the same time in the future will have a capability to interfere with the water flow should the need arise but at present it cannot.

---

Now by accusing India of not releasing water meant for Pak, Pak govt is doing what is does best,
blame India for an impending self-created disaster.

 

[kuku]

Well search through the NHPC india website, you will find all the data you require, tenders, office numbers etc. etc.

For that level of irrigation they will need to divert a lot of water, which will put them on direct war like terms with India.

And how will they make the hydropower generated profitable from that place, its really difficult on their side to construct the project, might as well open more coal plants or nuclear reactors.

 

[Known_Unknown]

This is another major dimension to the Kashmir dispute. Whoever controls Kashmir controls the water supply of the region. If not for anything else, it would be the height of stupidity for any Indian govt to let Pak control our water supply.

 

[Koji]

Well search through the NHPC india website, you will find all the data you require, tenders, office numbers etc. etc.

For that level of irrigation they will need to divert a lot of water, which will put them on direct war like terms with India.

And how will they make the hydropower generated profitable from that place, its really difficult on their side to construct the project, might as well open more coal plants or nuclear reactors.

Kuku, I looked through this website: NHPC Limited

Is this the one you were referring to? I found nothing on the website that would indicate construction HAS already begun.

I agree the geography of the region is challenging to build a dam, but I think the Chinese leadership is really concerned about its "green" image and it's pushing these projects along rather forcefully. You can't forget the enormity of the Chinese project and the power it'll generate. The Brahmaputra dam will generate 40 million kilowatts per hour of hydroelectricity. The size of the dam will have to be three times as large as the current largest dam in the world, the 3 Gorges Dam. With that kind of hydro power, it certainly looks attractive.

 

[Yusuf]

Wonder if there can be a sharing agreement between India and China on the electricity that Koji says can be generated by way of Indian participation in the project? Some kind of treaty should be in place to take care of electricity and water sharing.
If something like that can happen, it will go a long way in improving ties between India and China.

 

[Rage]

You're source is from a white water kayaking blog...

So?

The website is counterpart in blogosphere to a project to raise public awareness of some of the world's most beautiful, culturally rich and ecologically significant rivers threatened by large scale hydropower projects. They are not just "kayakers" son, they are a team of professional whitewater rafters and filmmakers who have embarked upon an ambitious project using rigorous methods to produce a documentary film that would raise awareness about sensitive ecology worldwide threatened by dam construction- from India to China to Nepal to the African continent and North America.

Moreover, this "Kayaking blog" references an entire interview (available within the documentary) with an actual engineer on site, rendering it a valid, cognizant semi-official source. And when the engineer in question has agreed to have his photograph taken with the interviewer- and pasted on the group's website to boot, it renders it an even more credible source. Feel free to track him down through his picture if you have any qualms as to his info.

and even then it says that construction won't start for at least 2 years.

Pal, the article that quotes the engineer's remarks on construction commencing in 2 years is from April 2008, since which more than a year and two months have elapsed. Notwithstanding that, we have fast-tracked dam construction in the past. I will reiterate: we do not f*ck around when it comes to dams.

The source you posted earlier said that Chinese construction would start in early 2009.

I know what my source says. I also know that it is penned by a Pakistani-based journalist who has both collated his information well and presented a plausible, factual analysis, but whom I would not in the least expect to have a level of penetration in Chinese bureaucracy or state apparatus that would determine with indubitable, incontrovertible validity, the commencement and termination dates of major, sensitive projects -- especially if he is writing a year before the fact.

I found this: https://forums.yaleglobal.yale.edu/thread.jspa?threadID=1491

Are you a bit daft mate? The article you quoted is the EXACT same article I pasted on this forum not three posts ago. You're trying to come across as more knowledgeable on this subject than you actually are. Now you would also have noticed, if you were not so careless enough, that the article is pasted on both forums (Opendemocracy and Yaleglobal by the same user. Do us all a favor and rectify your paltry levels of concentration.

It says "unofficially" that tunneling has already begun.

Ergo...

I'd like to see an official source corroborating your statement that "construction has already commenced on the Chinese side"...

moreover that the Brahmaputra will be diverted to its arid North, because from the very recent article (May 26, 2009) quoting former Water minister Wang Shucheng, it is not purported to be.

Jeez...

And all other articles I have read report a 2009 start date.

What "other" articles? Care to reference them.

 

[kuku]

Kuku, I looked through this website: NHPC Limited

Is this the one you were referring to? I found nothing on the website that would indicate construction HAS already begun.

I agree the geography of the region is challenging to build a dam, but I think the Chinese leadership is really concerned about its "green" image and it's pushing these projects along rather forcefully. You can't forget the enormity of the Chinese project and the power it'll generate. The Brahmaputra dam will generate 40 million kilowatts per hour of hydroelectricity. The size of the dam will have to be three times as large as the current largest dam in the world, the 3 Gorges Dam. With that kind of hydro power, it certainly looks attractive.

exactly which project are you looking for, in the projects section you can find the exact status of each and every project
National Hydroelectric Power Corporation LTD.


If you think hydroelectric projects are environmentally friendly just because they are hydroelectric projects, you should study more about them, i know of several environment impact assessment studies that are stuck at the ministry of environment and forests (india) and many of them from Arunachal Pradesh due to the negative impact they will have on the local environment.

The chinese are not going to divert the water, perhaps you should try to understand this simple point, it has been made clear at several discussions.

 

[Daredevil]

I think if China plays funny with Brahmputra, we can stop the tributaries that flow from India. It will be again Bangladesh that will be the biggest loser.

Our NE states should get by with the water from the tributaries I guess.

Vinod, there are hardly any water tributaries that arise out of Indian Himalayas and contribute to Brahmaputra river. So, we have no chance of cutting off them. On the other hand, it is very difficult for Chinese to build any bigger dam given the terrain characteristics. Also, more than one country will be affected by any construction on Barhmaputra, so, it can create international pressure on China to refrain from doing anything stupid on the river that is not according to the international rules.

 

[kuku]

Well the subansiri contributes 10% to the flow of that river.

Out of the 63328 MW projects identified in that area some 15191 MW projects are in the Subhansiri river basin.

 

[S.A.T.A]

International laws drawn under the auspices of the UN, forbid diversion or storage of waters of international rivers,for irrigation or power generation or any other utility,unless all the countries that share the river agree to such a utilization, through a bilateral agreement.

In my opinion India and China do not have any agreements on the lines of IWT or the Indo-Bangla Ganga water sharing treaty.

 

[Koji]

So?

Pal, the article that quotes the engineer's remarks on construction commencing in 2 years is from April 2008, since which more than a year and two months have elapsed. Notwithstanding that, we have fast-tracked dam construction in the past. I will reiterate: we do not f*ck around when it comes to dams.

.

Is this just speculation on your part that India has fast-tracked dam construction? Do you have sources? I just don't think your reiterations about not "f*cking" around is enough.

As for the sources that have 2009 as a start date for China:
Tsanpo Brahmaputra river diversion project scheduled for 2009 - EcoPaparazzi

Interestingly,

"The Chinese media has been making references to a huge budget allocation for a new road in Tibet, the Bomi-Medog highway, linking the lower Tsangpo valley with Tibet’s main east-west highway. The allocation is astounding considering Medog’s sparse population, and Indian officials suspect the road is meant to facilitate the Tsangpo diversion project."
The Telegraph - Calcutta (Kolkata) | Nation | Dam shield against China river threat

 

[Yusuf]

China has a history of dammin international rivers. It has done it on Mekong and it has effected Thailand, Laos, Burma, Vietnam.
One cannot expect the Chinese to think of others before it undertakes any project, but i wonder if the Chinese are willing to talk in this regard to India and make it a partner in the project with due importance to Indian concerns about reduced water flow by not diverting any water to the Gobi Desert and the Yellow river. 26 turbines and 40 million kilowatts per hour is a lot of electricity and India could well do with some of that. But the Chinese will have to be flexible and cooperate.
One major problem that this project could face is that the Himalayan Glaciers are dying and the Brahmaputra may not carry enough water to sustain the dams 40-50 years from now.

 

[kuku]

What projects in Arunachal are people taking about?

Do you guys have specific name of the projects in question, there are a lot of projects that are going on in Arunachal.

And please do not go into the realm of fantasy, based on sources that do not name their sources, PRC officials have been quoted against such rumors, in case any project activity is to happen it will be preceded by a huge debate and several studies between administrators and scientists.

If PRC is paranoid enough to hide these studies and debates, lets not forget that we live in the age of highly sophisticated space based remote sensing, and the government of India has at its disposal several of its own remote sensing resources, several more are available commercially and even more from friendly nations, so any construction activity will be picked up at a very early stage.

 

[Koji]

International laws drawn under the auspices of the UN, forbid diversion or storage of waters of international rivers,for irrigation or power generation or any other utility,unless all the countries that share the river agree to such a utilization, through a bilateral agreement.

In my opinion India and China do not have any agreements on the lines of IWT or the Indo-Bangla Ganga water sharing treaty.

How strictly are these laws enforced? It seems that neither Indian nor Chinese are trying to oblige by them.