BJP gains in polls after every riot, says Yale study

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by Singh, Dec 5, 2014.

  1. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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    The paper maintains that while the Hindu-Muslim riots are electorally costly for the Congress, these riots in effect strengthen the “ethno-religious parties.
    GANDHINAGAR: While many within the Congress blame its electoral debacle to the party's obsession with "minority appeasement", a recent study conducted by three political scientists of the Yale University claim that had Congress lost all close elections between 1962 and 2000, there could have been 10% more communal riots in the country.

    Gareth Nellis, Michael Weaver, Steven Rosenzweig, political scientists from the Yale University in their paper titled "Do parties matter for ethnic violence? Evidence from India", have maintained that "the election of a single Congress MLA in a district brought about a 32% reduction in the probability of a riot breaking out prior to the next election. Simulations reveal that had Congress candidates lost all close elections in our dataset, India would have faced 10% more riots and thousands more riot casualties".

    "The pacifying effect of Congress incumbency appears to be driven by local electoral considerations, in particular the party's exceptionally strong linkages to Muslim voters during the period we investigate," they have written. They further maintain that "riots produce ethnic polarization that benefits ethno-religious parties at the expense of the Congress". The paper maintains that while the Hindu-Muslim riots are electorally costly for the Congress, these riots in effect strengthen the "ethno-religious parties at the expense of multi-ethnic ones like the Congress".

    Analysing the effect of riots on the vote share of "Hindu nationalist parties", the paper notes that "the BJS/BJP saw a 0.8 percentage point increase in their vote share following a riot in the year prior to an election". "The polarization of the electorate induced by riots disadvantages Congress in subsequent elections, making it counter-productive for the party's affiliates to instigate riots following an electoral loss," the paper notes.

    "In addition, local Muslim voters — on whom the Congress depended for votes — would presumably have looked unfavorably towards Congress orchestrating riots in which Muslims were the principal victims. This would make instigating riots a highrisk strategy where there are large Muslim populations, yet this is precisely where we find the effect of Congress to be strongest," the paper adds.

    "India itself underwent traumatizing paroxysms of Hindu-Muslim violence during the partition of the subcontinent in 1947; there were fears following independence that enmity stemming from this cleavage would again tear the country apart," the paper notes.

    It adds: "The paramount importance of Congress's role is underscored by the fact that our estimates likely place a lower bound on its true impact. Taken in conjunction with the main result, our secondary finding that riots reduce subsequent Congress vote shares raises the possibility of a feedback loop or multiplier effect, whereby the outbreak of Hindu-Muslim violence causes Congress to lose votes and seats, which in turn leads to more riots, and so on in a vicious cycle."

    BJP gains in polls after every riot, says Yale study - The Economic Times
     
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  3. Manas7

    Manas7 Regular Member

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    Neither in 2004 nor in 2014 .
     
    Last edited: Dec 5, 2014
  4. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Gareth Nellis
    Michael Weaver
    (Don't bother clicking.)

    Steven Rosenzweig
     
  5. jus

    jus Senior Member Senior Member

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    What about 1984 CONgi-Sikh riots (Biggest in the history of India) who gain from this

    Anyway if u burn women&kids at Godhra in moving train,series of jat women rap*s in muzz'nagar,Occupying Tribal lands in Assam u didn't expect ppl will wait&watch silently
     
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  6. Singh

    Singh Phat Cat Administrator

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  7. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Figure 1: The green and yellow lines are based on too few points. Lowess smoothing curves are not the best way to judge trends. They over simplify conclusions. This also looks like a plot suffering from underfitting, and seems to be heavily influenced by outliers, the outliers being the sudden fluctuations in the green and yellow points (late 1970s). (Underfitting vs. Overfitting)

    Figure D1: ABV came to power in 1998. PVNR came to power in 1996. Now, compare the riots plot and see who came to power after more riots. Is this an outlier?
     
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  8. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    What next after this....."BJP gains in polls after every riot, says Yale study"....!

    Congress used riots as a political tool many times. Even they used it when they were unable to control "Nav Nirman Andolan" / "Roti Ramkhan".
     
  9. Sambha ka Boss

    Sambha ka Boss Regular Member

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    Looks like some whining in the name of research.
     
  10. Kharavela

    Kharavela Regular Member

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    These reports are just like Max Mueller's theory. These 3 idiots do not understand a bit of complexity in Indian systems.
    Moreover, western idiots often write derogatory articles about India & our systems because of our craving for certificate from western pundits.
     
  11. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I wouldn't call them idiots. Here is why:

    What they are saying: There were riots, and subsequently, BJP gained votes.
    What they are not saying: There were riots, and consequently, BJP gained votes.

    You are correct, that the Indian system is very complicated, and this research paper provides insufficient information to form any conclusion, IMHO.

    I think the news article might be presenting this research to subtly paint a poor picture of BJP.
     
  12. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    First of all understanding pathogenesis of the every riot is imperative. Electoral outcome is secondary to what pre riot and post riot perception of masses was.
     
    Last edited: Dec 7, 2014
  13. hit&run

    hit&run Elite Member Elite Member

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    From the heading of it one can easily say the research work has been hijacked or interpreted in a certain politically motivated way.

    BTW one should know how long it took for this research to be completed.
     
  14. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Your are correct. The media always likes to add its own spin to further its agenda.
     
  15. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    Objectivity isn't something we take to easily. We as a country do stand divided on emotional issues, and it's not just a case in India, quite a bit of Asia is affected, and it is because by and large, India and surroundings countries run on high emotions. Look at our movies, or the way the families are, and politics is going to be no different. We will get divided on emotional issues in politics as well, any wonder there are hundreds of political parties in India who then divide us further on one slogan or another, and we are more than willing to be a part of the bandwagon. The very concept of "communal" politics in India is because of that, and if the BJP is able to garner some extra votes of certain vote appeal, it is just the extension of the way we are, just the way the other parties grab votes shouting communal politics.

    But at least with the BJP, and definitely the present lot, do not come with the baggage of socialist economics, which has plagued India for way too long!
     
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  16. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    Sir, take that word out from your post.

    After it, I do agree with the last sentence of your post.

    Please read this again.....
    Is that true? The red color bold part.
     
  17. tarunraju

    tarunraju Moderator Moderator

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    Congress and JD parties created minority and caste votebanks, AAP created a votebank of people who were heavily bullied/molested in school; and if BJP is consolidating a Hindu votebank, by removing caste barriers that Congress relied on, where's the harm? They're doing what should have happened way back in the 1960s (consolidation of Hindus by removal of caste barriers). Uniform civil code will only add to that consolidation, by making the minorities obey India's civil code, not Hindus'. Hindus don't enjoy their own civil code.
     
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  18. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I had missed a few things, and this is what I find concerning.

    From page 24:
    The red parts are simply claims, and I have not seen statistically significant analyses to come to the conclusion. Any such analysis must be several orders high, and would be difficult to prove using Chi-square or Bhattacharya measure.

    Now, the above observations can be interpreted in different ways. Congress won, so there was less violence. Had Congress not won, there would have been more violence. Does this mean that people voted for Congress so as not to invite violence? Could it be true that the violence prior to elections was used to send the message to the electorate that the violence will cease only if Congress wins?

    The green part has been alleged by various sources, that Congress has followed a policy of appeasement.

    On the Yale-Harvard clique:
    Folks, remember one thing: Political Science, Economics, Sociology, and related fields from the Yale-Harvard clique, are most likely going to be politically motivated and fudged up. It is important to note that Timothy Snyder is a "professor" at Yale University. The things that he has written and said have proven to me that he either knows little about history, or is a neo-con hack, who presents a lot of concocted fairy-tales as "history," because he is motivated to do this for whatever reason. I am saying this with reference to the whitewashing of Nazis in Ukraine by the US government. I have also posted a debate by Timothy Snyder.

    Just be very careful of these things: Political Science, Economics, Sociology + Yale-Harvard clique.
     
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  19. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    I don't know whether it is true or not. We cannot claim it to be true or false. It could be either, but we cannot claim it either way. Let's get this out of the way.

    The highlighted part claims causation. I think they are wrong is claiming a causation. It is merely a correlation. They are demonstrating correlation and claiming causation. I think this is wrong. Also, there are many factors that influence a persons vote. This article, as I have already said, over-simplifies things.
     
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  20. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    List of Hindu - Muslim communal riots in between 1961–1970

    source: Hindu-Muslim Communal Riots in India I (1947-1986) - Online Encyclopedia of Mass Violence

    The red color part.......all riots were gone through when the state were ruled by congress. Only one case, was non congress ruled state but by the CM was ex congressi politicians. Please check the link next to the name with red color.
     
  21. Zebra

    Zebra Senior Member Senior Member

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    List of Hindu - Muslim communal riots in between 1970–1980

    Bit of change in modus operandi here, congress lost general elections in 1977 and riots started in Janta Party rule.
     
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