Bihar Elections -- NDA gets a massive landslide victory; RJD routed

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by ejazr, Nov 21, 2010.

  1. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    JDU-BJP set for landslide win in Bihar

    New Delhi: The last vote has been cast in Bihar Assembly elections. On November 24, the results will be declared and a new government will be formed in the state. So who is going to be the winner in this mother of all battles between Nitish Kumar and Lalu Prasad?

    As the most credible channel and one with the sharpest election analysis, CNN-IBN and THE Week have done a post poll survey in Bihar. These are the results based on the first five phases of the six-phase election.

    CNN-IBN and The Week Post Poll survey conducted by CSDS estimates that the Janata Dal (United)-Bharatiya Janata Party alliance is likely to get 46 per cent votes while its nearest rival, Rashtriya Janata Dal-Lok Janshakti Party (LJP) alliance is likely to get 27 per cent votes.

    The Congress is likely to get just nine per cent votes while others including the Left Front is likely to get 18 per cent votes.

    On the basis of that vote Projection, CNN-IBN has come up with it's own seat projection for the Bihar Assembly Elections 2010.

    In 2000 the Lalu-Rabri combine was the preferred choice of 26 per cent people, while Nitish Kumar was preferred by just five per cent people. By 2004, Nitish had narrowed the gap and in 2005 February the gap narrowed further.

    By October 2005 the tables had turned and Nitish was now the preferred choice of 43 per cent people, as compared to just 28 per cent backing Lalu and Rabri.

    By the time of the General elections in 2009, Nitish had consolidated his lead over Lalu and Rabri.

    Now our post-poll survey shows Nitish with 54 per cent people wanting him as the next Chief Minister has maintained a considerable lead over Lalu-Rabri, who have just 28 per cent people backing them.

    The JDU-BJP combine is likely to get 187 to 203 seats; the RJD-LJP combine is likely to get 19 to 29 seats while the Congress is a distant third and is likely to get between six and 12 seats.

    Others including the Left Front are likely to get between 10 and 20 seats.

    If the survery results are right then it will be a big change from what happened in November 2005 elections. Then the JDU-BJP combine had won 143 seats, RJD and LJP together had 64 seats while Congress won just nine seats. Smaller parties and Independents had won 27 seats.
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2010
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  3. ajtr

    ajtr Veteran Member Veteran Member

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    Nitish kumar is ideal candidate to rule bihar but cant speculate results based on exit polls.2009 lokshabha elections were quite an example of it when all exit poll restults were quite opposite by 180 deg.
     
  4. rcscwc

    rcscwc Tihar Jail Banned

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    IBN survey is so radically different from the other two major surveys. Either IBN has a HUGE error or other two are mistaken greatly.

    In none of the channels, RJD-LJP leaders made an appearance. Seem to be demoralised. In later stages Lalu was defensively pleading for one more chance. Paswan was not even audible or visible.

    Hehe, Sonia and Rahul drew HUGE crowds, but not not the votes!!
     
  5. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    I saw the IBN report and the 'expert' Yadav was not too enthusiastic about the the predictions.

    Notwithstanding, there has been a sea change (by Bihar standards) under Nitesh Kumar.

    If the exit poll is correct, then it a vote for law and order (which has improved exponentially) good roads and basic creature comforts being addressed.

    The earlier embarrassment of being a Bihari is no longer there.

    Good for Bihar.

    Lallu required to be taught a lesson that dadagiri and clowning around does not pay. Today's citizens are no longer ready to be fooled.

    And as far as Rahul Gandhi the sipahi, he seems to have genuinely believed in the media hype about youth and he being the fountainhead.

    India is no longer an ersatz democracy.

    The voters want accountability as they want in the unending series of scams!

    rcscwc

    Which were the other surveys.

    Interested in knowing so that when the votes are counted one can check up who has been 'bought'. I say this since one has little faith with what has been appended on this forum about Barkha Dutt and Vir Sanghvi apparently playing fixers!
     
    Last edited: Nov 21, 2010
  6. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    One thing I observed...when a state gets a goood leader who is highly focused on development the gandhi charm doesn't work in that state
     
  7. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    I told it 10 days back and I am telling now that he is coming back with thumping majority .
     
  8. rcscwc

    rcscwc Tihar Jail Banned

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    Last edited: Nov 21, 2010
  9. SHASH2K2

    SHASH2K2 New Member

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    That crowd in Congress rallies was due to the power of money that they have looted from us. Poor Laloo all money that he had was from Fodder scam and looks like thats over now.
     
  10. S.A.T.A

    S.A.T.A Senior Member Senior Member

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    While exit pool result must always be taken with a pinch of salt,there is no doubt that the NDA alliance appears all set to return to power.Nitish Kumar did well to not entertain Congress' pre poll overtures to break away from NDA and also proved his political sagacity by not making unnecessary brouhaha over the 'Narendra Modi ad' entanglement,an issue which was deliberately pressed by the both the RJD and the congress in order to cause fissures in the NDA alliance.BJP on its part did well to keep its trust in Nitish and not let party ego come in the way.If Biharis manage to keep laloo yadav away from power,even they would have done well.

    All's well that ends well !
     
  11. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Most peaceful exercise ever in Bihar: Quraishi

    With the sixth phase of the Bihar Assembly elections ending and the curtain coming down on the month-long poll process in 243 constituencies, the Election Commission heaved a sigh of relief on Saturday.

    “It was the most peaceful election ever” held in the State, Chief Election Commissioner S.Y. Quraishi, told journalists here.

    In Bihar, elections were once synonymous with incidents of loot, booth capturing, impersonation and kidnap.

    Now, thanks to the tight security measures taken by the Commission, the turnout also improved with an average 52.43 per cent voters exercising their franchise in all six phases, up from 45.85 per cent in the October 2005 Assembly elections and from 44.6 per cent in last year's Lok Sabha elections.

    In Saturday's final phase in 26 constituencies, at least 18 of them in the Naxal belt, around 50.98 per cent voters exercised their franchise.

    Mr. Quraishi said there was not a single case of booth capturing in this election. The EC was fully geared to ensure that counting of votes on November 24 went off peacefully and fairly. It had appointed independent observers.

    He attributed the improvement in poll percentage to absence of fear, and to voter awareness campaigns and scientific poll management. Besides, greater participation of women pushed up the voting percentage by around seven this time.

    While the turnout by men was 50.77 per cent, it was 54.85 per cent for women. It was a quantum jump, EC sources said.
     
  12. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    A good bird-eye view of politcal scenario in Bihar focusing on Congress's drawbacks

    Congress devoid of ideas in Bihar

    As the Bihar election enters its final phase, Mohammad Sajjad asks if Biharis will endorse the Rahul Gandhi-led Congress campaign in the state.

    While the incumbent Janata Dal-United-Bharatiya Janata Party regime led by Chief Minister Nitish Kumar and the Opposition formation led by Lalu Yadav [ Images ] and Ram Vilas Paswan are ranged against each other, the Congress party is trying to project itself as an electorally acceptable third force.

    It feels that anti-incumbency and the JD-U's alliance with the BJP will push a sizeable electorate towards the Congress. It hopes to provide an alternative to the electorate disillusioned with the anti-development, anti-middle class perception about Lalu's politics. In fact, the Rashtriya Janata Dal's electoral symbol, the lantern, symbolises Lalu's antipathy towards electricity and development.

    There is a widely held belief that Congress General Secretary Rahul Gandhi [ Images ] will attract the youth. A Muslim, Mehboob Ali Qaiser, was made president of the state Congress party. Meira Kumar [ Images ], the MP from Sasaram and Lok Sabha Speaker [ Images ], daughter of a formidable, charismatic Dalit Congress leader Jagjivan Ram [ Images ] and married to a backward caste (Kurmi) husband, is being projected as the chief ministerial candidate.

    These are the ways in which the Congress is trying to woo various social groups. Both these leaders, however, are hardly able to connect and communicate with the common people.

    Moreover, sections of upper caste Hindus are apparently not happy with the incumbent regime. One of the reasons is Nitish Kumar's announcement to give proprietorship to the bataidars (share-croppers). They are expected to flock to the Congress. Smelling its electoral implications, Nitish Kumar has already decided not to implement the scheme.

    But there is more to it than meets the eye. Mere superficial social engineering is probably not enough for winnable electoral management.

    Do people really look at the Congress with hope?

    What is the roadmap and vision of the Congress for the development of contemporary Bihar?

    Is there any change in the character and social composition of the Congress leadership?

    The Congress has not spoken on why its ruling Bihar (till 1990) keep it as an 'internal colony' of India?

    Why did it neglect public investment in controlling the recurrent, devastating, floods? Why does it continue to have its leaders mostly from the upper castes, mainly Bhumihars?

    Given the history of political rivalry between the Rajputs and the Bhumihars, it would be difficult for the Congress to get the support of both castes simultaneously. The Congress leaders are yet to speak about how they would take steps towards augmenting power production, agrarian development and industrialisation and they are silent on establishing centrally funded educational institutions.

    The Planning Commission and the Finance Commission of the Union government have not shown anything to woo Bihar, taking it out of the morass of politically perpetuated economic backwardness. Mere communal-secular binary of political rhetoric will hardly help the Congress to attract enough votes to get power.

    The lower backward castes of Hindus and Muslims, the lower Dalits, and women have got substantial empowerment from Nitish Kumar's incumbent regime. Sections of poor Dalits and other landless agricultural labourers in certain parts of Bihar form the support base of the Communist Party of India-Maoist Leninist Liberation. Some of the upper Dalits will also go to Mayawati's [ Images ] Bahujan Samaj Party.

    In a multi-angular electoral contest, such factors will make a serious impact on the electoral outcome. On a large number of seats, the margin of victory will be very narrow, and the votes chipped in by such forces, including the rebels, will have serious impact on the major stakeholders.

    Muslim votes will be divided along all the formations. The upper caste Hindu votes are expected to go mainly to the JD-U-BJP alliance and the Congress. In short, the Congress does not have a strong, dependable, solid support base among a given, numerically significant, social group.

    The Congress campaign emphasised mostly on central government funds allocated for Bihar and their allegation that the Nitish Kumar-led administration has not been able to spend all of them. It is increasingly becoming a thing of common knowledge that the state administration has proved to be more efficient in utilising central funds than all its predecessors.

    The Congress regime in Bihar prior to Lalu Yadav was much worse in utilising central funds. And the Congress has to share all the blame of the underdevelopment of Bihar during six decades of its rule since Independence, both in Bihar as well as at the Centre. So this plank will hardly help the Congress gain much votes. People's memory is not that short.

    In the first week of July, Jyotiraditya Scindia [ Images ] addressed a public meeting at the historic (once great urban centre and capital city of the first Republic of India) village of Vaishali in north Bihar. People came back hugely disappointed, because the Union minister neither promised them a railway junction connecting the village with the nearby towns, nor a central university for women with professional courses and research in comparative religion, humanities and social sciences. These have been their demand for long.

    Even Kendriya Vidyalayas, Navodaya Vidyalayas and Kasturba Balika Vidyalayas have not been established here by the central government. Vaishali stands connected with neighbouring towns with roads which have been upgraded as National Highways, but no investment has been made to construct and widen these roads, which remain as dilapidated as ever.

    Whereas, these routes have potential of tourism industry by virtue of having got historic sites like Budhist stupas, and Ashokan pillars etc. The rail roads, under construction, connecting Sitamarhi with Muzaffarpur, and Hajipur with Sugauli still remain a distant dream. Such connectivities will offer a good market for agricultural products by the peasantry of Champaran and Sitamarhi.

    One of the worst policies of the Nitish regime has been to recruit school teachers on fixed, consolidated, low 'honorarium'. It has once again degraded the profession of teaching; it repels the talent away from teaching. But none of the Opposition parties including the Congress have attacked this devastating policy of the Nitish government.

    In late 1989 and early 1990, the Jagannath Mishra-led Congress government had taken a cabinet decision to extend the benefits of gratuity, provident fund, pension etc to the employees of government-recognised minority educational institutions, similar to other government institutions.

    Lalu Yadav's government shelved this policy even while proclaiming himself as the messiah of the minorities. The Congress campaign is absolutely silent on it, while making superficial overtures of attracting Muslim votes. If it wishes to discredit both Lalu and Nitish on the issues pertaining to Muslims, then it should raise the demand of justice for the victims of Sitamarhi-Riga riots of October 1992. But the Congress is as much silent on the issue as Lalu and Nitish.

    It seems the Congress think-tank is devoid of the ideas and programmes with which it could regain its lost base in Bihar. They seem to have become complacent considering that all the voters disillusioned with Lalu and Nitish have got no other option but to flock around the Congress. Even a naive political manager and policy shaper knows it too well that such a deficiency in pro-active approach can hardly be helpful for the Congress.

    Only an aggressive, comprehensively well-explained, realistic, and pragmatic policy prescription for the overall development of Bihar, promising to contain floods, developing food-processing and agro-based industries, agricultural development, power production, road construction, enhancing the per capita rail road availability, and all kinds of infrastructure development can attract people towards the Congress.

    The people of Bihar are really desperate to see development. They no longer wish to continue as India's internal colony. They can no longer suffer the ignominy of supplying cheap labour to the developed parts of India.

    The Bihar Congress needed to chalk out its political strategy accordingly. Only then could it hope to make a base for itself in Bihar, competing with Nitish Kumar's performance.

    The Congress does not seem to have that kind of leadership and vision.

    Dr Mohammad Sajjad teaches history at Aligarh Muslim University.
     
  13. Godless-Kafir

    Godless-Kafir DFI Buddha Senior Member

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    Most of the Biharis i have spoken too told me they will vote for Lalu Prasad back to power, when i asked them why they said thats the way we are! :D

    I will take this exit poll with a pinch of salt.
     
  14. Ray

    Ray The Chairman Defence Professionals Moderator

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    Lallu is stating that he is returning as the CM of Bihar!

    Animals must beware.

    Long time out of power!

    More Fodder will be required to be eaten!

    It matters not who wins so long as Bihar wins and strides forward shoulder to shoulder in progress with the rest of India!!
     
  15. Virendra

    Virendra Moderator Moderator

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    As much as I'd like to speculate and give an estimate, I know the unpredictability of our voters. But yeah small or big; majority seems to be tilting to Nitish Kumar.
    I think he deserves it. My friends/roommates from Bihar are all praise for him.
     
  16. Rahul Singh

    Rahul Singh Senior Member Senior Member

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    [​IMG]

    Star News courtesy "Congress is not ahead in single constituency [where 40 years old YUVA] Rahul Gandhi campaigned" .

    Hip Hip Hurray! Media hyped magic defused. Rahul Gandhi's 'by-air' campaign remained 'in air'.

    Congratulation to Bihar and Biharis for strengthening real version of 'development' and 'nationalist' politics.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2010
  17. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    i think rahul factoer wont work in any state level elections allthough it may work at central level
     
  18. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Rahul Gandhi's magic in UP did not work here in Bihar it seems. Thanks to Lalu ..
     
  19. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    Bihar officers so sure they draw roadmap for Nitish II Vandita Mishra Posted: Wed Nov 24 2010, http://www.indianexpress.com/news/bihar-officers-so-sure-they-draw-roadmap-for-nitish-ii/715175/0

    On October 22, the day after the first phase of polling in Bihar’s six-phase election, Bihar’s senior bureaucracy — officers of the rank of secretary and above — sat down to talk and to plan ahead in a chintan baithak. A second chintan baithak was held on November 16, four days before polling ended on November 20.
    This was the first time that such a brainstorming session was conducted by the bureaucracy in Bihar. They were organised under the aegis of the General Administrative Department at the initiative of Bihar’s Chief Secretary Anoop Mukherjee.

    The signal: Bihar’s bureaucracy was not going to sit back and stay still while elections took place. It would take up issues plaguing the state and ask: what can the bureaucrat do about it? The unspoken signal also was: the new chief minister would want the bureaucrat to hit the ground running and the bureaucracy should be prepared.

    Given that Lalu Yadav’s tenure as chief minister was not exactly known for his attention to the blueprint or detail of governance or his harnessing of bureaucratic energies for that purpose, the implication was clear. Patna’s secretariat, it would appear, was bracing itself for its most favoured scenario on November 24.

    Groups were constituted on various subjects; reports have been submitted since. On the basis of the recommendations, according to sources, work has already begun.

    The issues include the strengthening of the public delivery system and specifically the reform of the public distribution system that Nitish Kumar has flagged in all his campaign speeches. Also, performance-based incentives and capacity building at lower levels of government, and the improvement of the functioning of the secretariat. The land acquisition policy was discussed, as was the need for concerted urban planning.

    Among the recommendations in the report of Group 1 in the October meeting, on ‘Strengthening Public Delivery System’—a copy of which is with The Indian Express-¿is the suggestion that gradually the majority of the basic services related to public delivery should be given to Panchayati Raj bodies. It says: “Some of the services which can be handed over to PR (Panchayati Raj) in the first phase may be: running of primary school; midday meal; dress; cycle; scholarship; public distribution system; social security pension, etc.” As a pre-condition to such devolution, it recommends measures to strengthen the Panchayati Raj system, such as making all panchayat-level staff accountable to a Panchayat Development Officer.

    Among the more radical suggestions taken up at the session: the enactment of a Right to Service, on the pattern adopted by the Shivraj Singh Chauhan government in Madhya Pradesh.

    The proposed right to service envisages bringing services like new electricity and water connections, repairing of hand pumps, financial help during natural calamities, domicile certificate, benefits of various schemes like the ‘Janani Surakasha Yojana’ and the ‘Kanya Vivah Yojana’ under a new act which lays down time limits for these services, and also provides for monetary penalties in case the appellate authority is of the opinion that the designated officer has failed to provide service without sufficient and reasonable cause.

    The session also discussed a draft bill called the ‘Bihar Rajya Sewa Dene Ki Guarantee Vidheyak, 2010’, the bill to provide for delivery of services to the people of the state within the stipulated time limit.
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    i hope he does something which can improve PDS SYETEM IN BHIAR AND THAT BECOME BENCHMARK FOR INDIA
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2010
  20. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    doesnt star news has a stake of the gandhi family in it ................ i would be very surprised if they went on to use the term yuva or yuvraj for rahul.

    its good to see a clean (clean as in a non-corrupt) nitish kumar chosen back to office who has delivered to the extent that today bihar is one of the fastest growing states in india. the one thing i would like to see him come out clean on would be his stand on the maoists and whatever his stand, he follows it in full spirit. he wants to talk to them then he talks, he wants to go against them then he takes them head on, a dilly dally on this issue is only going to be harmful in the long run.

    all in all very many congratulations to mr nitish kumar, sir you richly deserved this.
     
  21. Rahul Singh

    Rahul Singh Senior Member Senior Member

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    40 year old Young politician Rahul Gandhi factor works only among people who live in virtual world with their eyes and ears closed. Rahul Ganghi was speaking so much about 'Young with him' he forget that young generation is not that idiotic and very well understands what is right and what is wrong. Young generation prefer development above these 'Congresi Natak' which starts at and ends at 'Baap-Beta' politics and re-established the fact that wherever BJP comes development follows in advance.
     
    Last edited: Nov 24, 2010

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