Interesting analysis, though in my opinion for it to be as critical a swing state as you make India out to be, it needs to meet two primary condition:
First, it needs to grow at 9% for the atleast the next decade or two. Not will that increase its political clout but allow investment in defense, space, computing and other fields.
Two, it needs to take 'care' of Pak so as to render it irrlevant as far as India's role on the global stage and its perception is concerned. In my understanding, both China and West still feel that they can 'contain' India using Pak. As long as this perception exists, even if the reality doesn't, I don't feel India will get the position it deserves on the global stage.
By the way, what's your opinion on which group should India join among the ones you mentioned?
SO a couple things, India took a large economic hit over the past few years and is on the process of returning to some sort of a "norm". Growth this year will be about 5.7% and 6.6-6.7% next year. That's already pretty good from the great power play point of view. Chinese growth will continue to slow most likely as their population continues to age. So from my analysis if the current trends continue, India has already achieved the swing power in my scenario. Really I feel India is already powerful enough to be a critical swing state, but perhaps not one that guarantees victory for the faction it picks.
So I don't think India "needs" to hit 9% growth, though a very interesting thing will happen if it does, more on that later. Pakistan is already rendered irrelevant in a lot of ways, but I agree with you the process needs to be taken much further so that it can never pose a threat, even if it were to suddenly get its act together. I don't think anyone really sees Pakistan as a way to "contain" India so much as weigh it down to some extend and be a drain, slows India's rise but doesn't stop it.
So a lot of India's strategy needs to revolve around how powerful it becomes in the near future 10-30 years. If India stays a major power but doesn't catch up to near China levels, then it's best interests are served by being neutral, keeping its head down and working on nation building/economy, while making sure to keep all other great powers out of South Asia and as much of the India Ocean as it can. India needs to come across as very friendly and helpful to it's neighbors in those regions, and be very careful to be seen as a friend keeping other hostile powers out and not as the regional hegemon controlling the region. Meanwhile India should try to get as many benefits it can from both factions, playing up it's "leaning towards" each in private. Basically when talking to the Americans, India needs to be like "oh yaar we are secular liberal democracies, we both want freedom in the world. We love American culture, just check out Bollywood, we love the global Western order" and then when talking to China India needs to play up the whole "yeah guys, evil Western neo colonialists, non-white solidarity, we're both part of the new order, developing world, blah blah BRICS #1".
If India becomes a near equal to China, it can do the same thing, or join either side and that will be enough to push the balance of power and make it win. Personally I think the better side to join would be the USA. Once we get over our cultural history, anger at colonialism, mistrust of Westerners, the USA hasn't really been that bad to India. The USA has just blindly followed its own self interest, but has had no ill will in the process. Most Indian's know about America's role against India in 1971, but much less common is the talk of Kennedy sending massive airlift of supplies to support India at the end of the 1962 war, or how the USA felt giving weapons to Pakistan would make them less warlike and feel more secure in regards to India. Seeing Pakistan didn't cool off, the USA hit Pakistan with some pretty harsh sanctions that hurt it a lot after the wars with India etc...
I also think we have much more in common culturally with the Americans, our world views of what a liberal world order are pretty similar to theirs except India wants a multi-polar world. (But read that all that talk has less to do with some Indian "moral" vision and basically implies, great powers dominate their corners of the world, which would suit India just fine, if it got all of South Asia + India Ocean). But mostly, it's better to have a great power whom is predictable when it has near ultimate power, than China who has never had USA like power and so is unpredictable with it. It is also a 100x better to have a great power 1000's of miles away than in your own backyard, in the case of China.
Ok one last scenario I don't think Indian's give much thought to, but could possibly be the most important. The USA's ultimate goal is keeping as much of its power as possible. If India were to shoot far ahead of China economically, something I think rather likely given several factors that would take too long to explain here, then I think India needs to be very very careful how it manages the USA. If India's economy suddenly eclipses the USA and China one day, it needs to come across ultra non-aggressive and behind the whole Western world view, so as to not shock the Americans and cause them to form a contain India alliance the way they are creating an Anti-China coalition now. Just understanding the workings of America and Americans from living here most of my life, that is probably one of the biggest dangers to India.
I'm not really sure what India would do if it took the number one spot. If India had power like the USA did after the collapse of the Soviet Union, I'm not sure India would even want to dominate outside of South Asia/Indian Ocean. So if India's goal is limited to just that objective, then it becomes even easier to achieve and plant the seeds now. I think that is the official strategy of the Indian government now. I don't think India is particularly concerned about a Chinese land invasion, and I don't think China is in any position to do so, even if it wanted to. If India actually feared China, all military resources would be spent fortifying the boarder. Instead the Navy is given a high priority, specifically because India is laying down the foundation for its future claim over the Indian Ocean region.
