Ayni Airbase, the Russian concerns!

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Wednesday, December 14, 2016
By: New Indian Express

India would oblige any request for upgrading of Ayni airbase near Dushanbe as Tajikistan President Emomali Rahmon comes starts his two day visit to India.

It is President Rahmon’s 6th visit to India and he will be entering the country through Kochi, which is not an official part of his visit. The Ayni airbase near Tajikistan’s capital city was refurbished by India in 2007 and is seen as New Delhi’s strategy to find a toehold in the Central Asia.

There have been reports of India’s interest in taking the airbase on lease. However, the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) dismissed the reports. “The Ayni airbase is of Tajikistan and as a strategic partner they have requested earlier for some resources, for example this ALS (Advance Landing System) which was to be replaced, which we did. As and when any such proposal comes to us for helping them out and making it functional, we would be more than happy to do that, but I don’t think that we are going in the direction which you are suggesting,” MEA Joint Secretary (Eurasia) G Srinivas said.

The airbase has been the first and so far the only instance of India developing a foreign military base. However, it is far from being fully operational as there are no fighter jets operating from it. New Delhi had shown interest to deploy a complement of helicopters and fighter jets, but Russian concerns have made it to put the plans in abeyance.

Following the hijacking of the Indian Airlines flight IC 814 and its later force landing in Kandahar, New Delhi has been scouting for an airbase giving it access to Afghanistan and Central Asia. Besides this airbase, India had also helped Tajikistan in setting up a field hospital, known as India-Tajikistan Friendship Hospital, in Farkhor in 1990s, and it is said to have served as India’s support base for Northern Alliance in Afghanistan. However, the Indian establishment has been insistent that the nature of India-Tajikistan defence cooperation has training as a major component.

“… Our engagement with Tajikistan is more in terms of training, as I just pointed out to you, and of course not to also miss out on that whole creation of infrastructure, bringing back that airfield of Ayni to such a position that it is one of the best airfields now in the region, so that is the engagement with that country,” Srinivas added.

India is also working on tapping the unexplored hydro-power potential of Tajikistan that has 90 percent of the water resources in Central asia..

http://www.defencenews.in/article/T...ay-be-leased-by-India-for-Military-Ops-159594
 

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India’s Ayni military base in Tajikistan is Russia-locked.

Moscow has been unrelenting in its stand that it doesn’t want foreign powers to deploy fighter aircraft in its backyard and a former territory.


India is very serious on the Ayni air base project to gain a strategic foothold in Central Asia. Source: ITAR-TASS
Ayni is the much-spoken word in Indo-Russian strategic engagement. The Ayni air base in Tajikistan happens to be India’s first and only foreign military base. And yet, this base is not fully operational for the simple reason that an air base cannot be operational without deployment of fighter aircraft, something that is unlikely to happen without Russia’s green signal. India’s Ayni dream is Russia-locked.

The issue will inevitably figure during the highest Indo-Russian engagement when Russian President Vladimir Putin holds talks with Indian Prime Minister Manmohan Singh. It is another matter that the issue is unlikely to find a mention in the publicised talking points between the two sides, like it has seldom been.

Ayni is going to be among the high points of discussions between India and Russia at their 13th annual summit in New Delhi in December. India has spent $70 million between 2002 and 2010 to renovate the Ayni base. India has extended the Ayni runway to 3,200 metres and installed state-of-the-art navigational and air defence equipment there. And yet, India has not been able to make Ayni truly a military base that fits to the classic definition of an air base.

All these years the Indians have run into the Russian wall as Moscow has been unrelenting in its stand that it doesn’t want foreign powers to deploy fighter aircraft in its backyard and a former territory. The Russians have thus far steadfastly refused to grant this favour to its age-old strategic partner – India.

Importance of Ayni..

Ayni Air Force Base, also known as Gissar Air Base, is a military air base in Tajikistan, just 10 km west of the capital Dushanbe, which served as a major military base of the Soviet Union in the Cold War era. India waded in the Tajikistan strategic matrix after the disintegration of the Soviet Union in 1991, though it took India a good one decade to do so.

But that happened when Russia was weak – militarily, politically and economically. This scenario is no longer applicable with the now resurgent Russia.

India is very serious on the Ayni air base project to gain a strategic foothold in Central Asia and improve its C3I (Command, Control, Communications and Intelligence) network to fortify its operations in Afghanistan and keep a close eye on Pakistan. Ayni is located just 10 km west of the Tajik capital Dushanbe and had served as a major military base of the Soviet Union during the Cold War.

The Russian “Net” has prevailed that was reflected in an on-record statement by Tajik foreign minister Hamrohan Zarifi in January 2011 who ruled out deployment of Indian or American forces at Ayni. Zarifi’s statement coincided with Tajikistan officially launching negotiations with Russia to discuss possible deployment of Russian military at Ayni.

India’s military presence in Tajikistan, be it in Ayni or in Farkhor, would give India the much-needed depth and range in tackling Pakistan’s threats to its interest in Afghanistan. It would also prove to be a geo-strategic game-changer and give a larger role in South Asia, the implications of which would inevitably go far beyond the Indo-Pakistan sub-text.

The importance of Tajikistan for India cannot be overstated. Tajikistan’s importance in the new great game that is likely to unfold in Central and South Asia after the withdrawal of the US led NATO troops from Afghanistan in 2014 is well known to the strategic establishments of the region. New equations will inevitably emerge after the drawdown of the American forces in Afghanistan. The regional powers will be playing this game to establish a foothold in Afghanistan either in association with the Karzai regime or with the Taliban. The neighbouring countries of Afghanistan, like Tajikistan, will be playing a pivotal role in the regional geopolitics.





It is in this context that the September 3-4, 2012 India visit by Tajik president Rahmon should be viewed. During this visit, Rahmon, equally concerned with the possible shape of things to emerge in the post 2014 Afghanistan, discussed with his Indian interlocutors the various possibilities of jointly fighting the Taliban menace. Tajikistan looks upon Taliban as a threat to its own interests as well as its secular fabric.

Russia, Iran and India had collaborated significantly before the 9/11 attacks on the US soil. At that point India was running a military hospital on the Tajik territory close to the Afghan border to serve the injured Northern Alliance militia. In today’s circumstances, however, it is doubtful if the similar trilateral synergy is still there. Quite evidently, it is not. Iran is the X factor in this context. A ray of hope for India is that since the Iranians are now keen not only to allow India to work on the Chahbahar port but also make investments in the Chabahar project may well indicate that Iran may extend a helping hand to India in Tajikistan as well.

Rahmon’s India visit acquires an added significance as the Indians have become more ambitious and are no longer content with the role of merely running a hospital inside the Tajik area bordering Afghanistan. Instead, India is now envisaging a bigger security role for itself in Tajikistan. It is not without significance that during Rahmon’s recent India visit, India and Tajikistan discussed strategies to tackle the post 2014 security challenges and reaffirmed that the issue of restoring peace and stability in Afghanistan was inseparably linked with regional security.

The Big Picture

But the big picture is that the Ayni air base in Tajikistan holds the key to the long-term Indian strategic interests. In 2006, India was poised to announce that the Ayni base had become operational, but it was not to be. The base is still dormant without any fighter jets.

If India wants to have a strategic presence in Tajikistan, which is just 16 kilometres from Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir, it will have to have Russia on board. There is nothing to suggest on the ground that India’s Tajikistan riddle is going to be solved anytime soon,...

http://in.rbth.com/articles/2012/10...ary_base_in_tajikistan_is_russia-locked_18661
 
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India frowns at Russia-Pak meet on Kabul
Charu Sudan Kasturi
New Delhi, Jan. 4: India today criticised Russia's bid to partner Pakistan and China on ensuring security in Afghanistan, exposing growing cracks in a traditionally all-weather friendship now under strain despite attempts by both nations to project normality.

The criticism came in a week when Russia publicly said it wants to use an air base in Tajikistan that India renovated in 2007 and has since eyed, triggering concern in Delhi, senior officials said.

Russia had on December 27 also hosted a meeting in Moscow with Pakistan and China where the three countries together announced they would seek the lifting of UN Security Council sanctions against select Taliban commanders to bring the militant group to the talking table.

India has long opposed any segmentation within the Taliban, and views the group as backed and sponsored by Pakistan to allow Islamabad "strategic depth" through its control and influence in Afghanistan.

Afghanistan has also criticised the trilateral meeting in Moscow for not inviting Kabul's representative for the talks. India and Afghanistan have also demanded UN sanctions against the Taliban's new chief, Mawlawi Haibatullah Akhundzada.

"We do not believe that holding meetings on Afghanistan alone is going to solve problems of Afghanistan," junior foreign minister V.K. Singh said. "Any political solution in Afghanistan has to be Afghan-owned, Afghan-driven and Afghanistan controlled. Nothing else is going to work in Afghanistan. We believe that it is the Afghan government that needs to decide which parties it wants to engage with."

Singh's comments, in response to a question at a media briefing today, came after a little publicised announcement in Dushanbe this week by Russia's ambassador to Tajikistan Igor-Lyakin Frolov that Moscow is negotiating the lease of the Ayni air base.
India's redevelopment of the Ayni air base for $70 million was aimed at creating a strategic entry point into central Asia, and at allowing New Delhi to develop a military presence close to Afghanistan that could counter Pakistan, officials involved in the planning at the time said.


Russia had after that quietly blocked Indian attempts to lease the air base from Tajikistan, wary of allowing any other country strategic access to an area it considers a part of its sphere of influence.

Moscow has made clear in recent weeks that it views the growing footprint of the expansionist Islamic State in Afghanistan as a greater threat than the Taliban that has never tried to spread north.

India has tried to convince Russia that New Delhi remains a more reliable and safer partner for a Moscow interested in regaining its own strategic toehold in Afghanistan, three decades after it was bled by the mujahideen there.

But Russia's courting of Pakistan and its unilateral move to lease the Ayni air base suggest Moscow views Islamabad as a more critical ally than Delhi in Afghanistan - a choice that is worrying India.

"Eventually, it is about delivering results on the ground in Afghanistan," Singh said. "India's own developmental assistance (in Afghanistan) is well recognised."

The Ayni base was picked and redeveloped by India with the aim of creating a platform India could use also in the event of heightened tensions in Siachen. The Indian Air Force, New Delhi calculated, could use the base to attack Pakistani forces in Siachen from behind.

Officially, India continues to articulate confidence that Russia will not hurt Indian strategic interests. "Our relationship with Russia has stood the test of time and we are absolutely confident that it will stand the test of the future," M.J. Akbar, also a junior foreign minister, said.

"We do not believe Russia will do anything that is detrimental to our security interests or our national interests."But the Russian announcement that it intends to lease the Tajik air base is only the latest in a series of strategic moves Moscow has taken in the past few months that hurt New Delhi's interests.

In September, days after the Uri terror attack, which India blamed on Pakistan-based terrorists, Russia held joint counter-terrorism exercises with Pakistan, prompting New Delhi into rare public criticism of Moscow. Russia also backed Pakistan's role in Afghanistan at the Heart of Asia conference in Amritsar in December.

Source: https://www.telegraphindia.com/1170105/jsp/nation/story_128667.jsp#.WG2A84h97IE
 

airtel

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Soon India will get an Airbase in Afghanistan . :cowboy::cowboy:
 

Mikesingh

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I wouldn't be surprised it Russia allows the Paki air force instead to base itself at Ayni seeing the growing Russia-Pak-China strategic convergence, thanks to Pak's huge geographical advantage. These buggers will always be one up against India in the Central Asian region.
 

DingDong

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I wouldn't be surprised it Russia allows the Paki air force instead to base itself at Ayni seeing the growing Russia-Pak-China strategic convergence, thanks to Pak's huge geographical advantage. These buggers will always be one up against India in the Central Asian region.
Only if Russia wants to flush their relation with India down the toilet. Such move will be equivalent to openly siding with an enemy of India.

China is the main player, Russia is the sidekick, Pakistan like always will try to sell itself off to the highest bidder.

India is no longer being reactive, we are being proactive in Afghanistan.We managed to tilt a Pro-Pakistan government in Afghanistan in India's way, we have cultivated assets and sympathizers over decades.

We should not underestimate our influence in Afghanistan, we have got the home advantage, we just need to be uncompromising and persistent. We need to be more aggressive in Balochistan.
 

Rahul Singh

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This equation is not hard to deduce.

Russians are uncomfortable at growing military ties of India with US. So they are trying to make us nervous by closing their feet toward Pakistan. China on other hard is pushing Russia even closer towards Pakistan using its economic influence on moscow. Plus since both China and Russia are enemy of USA they joining their efforts to push India further to corner( atleast what they assume).

In meantime Pakistan like a sellout is on sell again. But what Pakistanis don't realise that Russians --who are trying to stand as world's no. 1-- won't forget pains of Afghan war in long run. And when dust settles the Pakistanis would end up in a place worse than they are today.

Russia's relationship with India though will never appear publicly bad. But out defence import from Russia would change forever. And it will be Russia which will be at loosing end.
 

Bornubus

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Russians under Putin asserting as a sole custodian of Central Asia and it's immediate neighborhood.


They don't tolerate US in former SSRs and Baltic states why don't they let insignificant soft "power" India to operate in their neighborhood !


India is too much depend on Russians in Military, diplomacy or Nuclear tech etc that she won't dare disobey Russia. This also applies to other insignificant nations such aa Tajikistan.



India has very limited leverage against Russians. If Russians wishes India can't even donate Mi 35 to Afghanistan let alone operating a Base in former SSRs (Tajikistan)
 

AnantS

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Thats why there needs to be massive change in Indian strategic view. India needs to be self reliant. However for the thought in Indian Armed forces need massive changes. Today its not long term view from Indian POV that drives Indian defense acquisition. As some non Indian aptly remarked, India always punches below its weight.
 

Rahul Singh

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Thats why there needs to be massive change in Indian strategic view. India needs to be self reliant. However for the thought in Indian Armed forces need massive changes. Today its not long term view from Indian POV that drives Indian defense acquisition. As some non Indian aptly remarked, India always punches below its weight.
For a nation which aims at becoming superpower, self reliance is a critical requirement. Anyone who thinks otherwise is fooling no one but itself.

Soft power is a misnomer to every one but itself --apparently in our case. In other words; fool's paradise. We should have long realized it. But alas no strategic, only immediate requirements!

I am happy, at least Modi government is thinking differently. Induction of Tejas is a vivid template of their intentions. However i am waiting for DM Pariker to call in Army and ask why they have not released GSQR of so-called FMBT yet when talks about it is going for past 5 years? Specially when Army has informally rejected Arjun on grounds of it being over-weight but can't deny that DRDO --with Arjun-- has already realized three critical of any MBT; Armour, firepower and mobility (1500HP engine under development). Is import friendly group in Army waiting for things to reach a stage which is so-called immediate requirements when they can sell idea of importing T-90MS followed by Armata to MOD? Errr isn't Army already buying T-90 MS............There comes another blow to ambition of becoming a superpower.
 
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sthf

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I can see where Russia is coming from. India won't appreciate if there is a Russian base in Bangladesh or Sri Lanka.

If both countries can operate Ayani jointly then, this should put Russian mind at ease and India gets the much needed foothold in Central Asia.
 

DingDong

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I can see where Russia is coming from. India won't appreciate if there is a Russian base in Bangladesh or Sri Lanka.

If both countries can operate Ayani jointly then, this should put Russian mind at ease and India gets the much needed foothold in Central Asia.
Afghanistan is India's neighbor. Russia must stop interfering in South Asia region.
 

sthf

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Afghanistan is India's neighbor. Russia must stop interfering in South Asia region.
Agreed but Tajikistan is Russia's "near abroad", same principles apply. I don't think Russia is any position to prevent India from using Bagram air base.

Their neighbourhood their rules, our neighborhood our rules.

Let's wait and watch for the Trump administration's actions towards Russia and then we can lose our shit if needed.
 

SANITY

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Does somebody know if we had any long term view/goals in renovating Ayni Airbase? Do we need an airbase abroad?


Old Article
Why is Tajikistan's Ayni Air Base Idle?
July 9, 2010 - 10:33am, by Joshua Kucera

Ayni air base in Tajikistan was supposed to become a showpiece for India. In the mid-2000s, India's military began renovating the facility, and New Delhi appeared poised in 2006 to announced that Ayni had become operational. But four years later, the base sits largely dormant - an airfield without any fighter jets.

The reason that Ayni is still idle, many in Dushanbe believe, is Russia: Moscow does not want any other country to have use of the base. "They [Tajik officials] don't know what to do with this airbase. We don't need it for ourselves, but to give it to someone else would create problems with other countries," said Faridoon Khodizoda, a political analyst in Dushanbe.

Information about the base is closely held. The Russian Embassy in Dushanbe did not respond to requests for comment. A spokesman at the Indian Embassy in Dushanbe said he could not comment on Ayni, but referred questions to the Ministry of Defense of Tajikistan. The Ministry of Defense did not respond to requests for comment.

India has renovated runways and hangars at Ayni, but the Indian government has never publicly stated what its longer-term intentions were for the base. Reports in the Indian press suggested that India hoped to base a squadron of MiG-29 fighter jets there, in an effort to bolster its political clout in Central Asia, and to create a counterweight to Pakistani influence in Afghanistan.

Analysts of India's military suggest those expectations may have been too ambitious. When the base renovations started in 2004, India did not have a clear plan as to how it would eventually utilize the facility, said one source close to the Indian armed forces, whose employer does not allow him to speak on the record. "The point, sadly, remains the same: While the Tajik government has kept doors open, at least in a limited sense, the government here [in India] hasn't quite gotten its act together about precisely what or how to leverage the opportunity," he said.

Some analysts said India's foray into base politics was motivated by a desire to play the role of great power. "India is playing a game," said Imran Baig, a Washington-based analyst of South Asian security. "To maintain a base with no aircraft is not expensive at all," he said. "But to deploy a high-tech fighter squadron full time at a remote location far from the country of origin is a very, very costly affair and can only be afforded by superpowers."

Still, India appears to want to keep the question of its presence at Ayni open. India's president, Pratibha Patil, visited Dushanbe last year, an indicator to both Indian and Tajik experts that India was still trying to court Tajikistan.

Indian engineers continue to work on construction projects at the base, including a "hotel," said one worker who spoke to EurasiaNet.org on condition of anonymity. But there were no Indian aircraft there, the worker added.

Meanwhile, in Dushanbe, analysts argue that the Tajik government may have been courting India with the intention of playing New Delhi off of Moscow, possibly hoping to get Moscow to offer more money for an exclusive lease to the base.

Russia's defense minister, Anatoly Serdyukov, said last year that Tajikistan and Russia would jointly use the base, but Tajikistan has never confirmed that. Russia, which already maintains a large military base for its 201st Division at Dushanbe, does not appear interested in actually using Ayni, but merely in keeping other countries from using it, said Zafar Sufiyev, editor in chief of the newspaper Ozodagon.

Meanwhile, Tajik leaders do not appear interested in allowing Russian forces to use the base. Tajikistan's president, Imomali Rahmon, recently suggested that Russia, which currently does not pay rent for the 201st base, should do so in the future. The two sides, however, agreed to put off that decision until 2014. Tajik-Russian relations have been tense of late, mainly because of Moscow's failure to support Dushanbe, either financially or diplomatically, in the construction of the Rogun Dam, which Tajikistan's government sees as vital to its future economic security. [For background see EurasiaNet's archive].

"Rahmon is not independent enough to say 'no' to Russia, and he's afraid to say 'yes' to anyone else," said Saymuddin Dustov, an analyst in Dushanbe. "So he does nothing."

There has been speculation that the United States., facing continuing uncertainty over the use of the Manas air base in Kyrgyzstan, might be interested in Ayni as a possible replacement. The Tajikistan government would allow US forces to use Ayni at the right price, said Safiyev. "If the government gets more for it than the Americans pay for Manas, they'll be interested," he said. "It's a market."

But Kenneth Gross, the US ambassador to Tajikistan, told EurasiaNet.org there are no discussions between the two countries over the use of Ayni.
 

Ramprasad

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Every time pakistan believed that it is in driving seat it has started war with India (72, Kargil). If this time we have war it will be purely because of Russia's stupidity. But we have to ensure that we cut of China's access to Afghan and take POK
 

sthf

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One solution to this would be a LSA like agreement with Russia while bitch slapping Porkistan in the process.

It should put Russia's mind at ease about Indo-US relationship.
 

angeldude13

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Time to abandon Roos..... We are powerful enough to be on our own. Scrap all the military deals with them and give it to the Americans and Indian private players. If they wanna play a hard ball then we have enough cards up our sleeves.
It's a country driven by emotions and that too putin's emotion. They are bound to loose and we should pick the winning side. Remember India was the only country in the Soviet camp which manage to defeat a country in American camp. All of their other allies were good for nothing. Let's see if they are dumb enough to let go their biggest cash cow.
 

alphacentury

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Well, Russia still benefits from its early investments of R&D and will continue to do so in future. Also WW led to more investments in defence in western countries. While the immense wealth of our country was never used for its own people. First mughal looted us, then British siphoned off everything. We paid for the subsistence of their army and technology. Similarly US is what it is today because of the strategic landmass they stole off. But, we never had any such benefits, moreover we never got to spend our own money in defence rnd and that led to a vacuum, whose effects are still today. That is why we are more or less dependent on foreign tech still today. There was/is no scope for experiment/failure in our rnd. And you cant invent in tht way. We could only invest in one plane, i.e Tejas. People like blackwater ji mock it, while other countries make x number of prototypes and they are in business decades ago. Also, the 10 years of abysmal fuck up in defence/forign policy during Sonia's reign, in every other field too. That is the reason we cant show finger out rightly to USA/CHN/RUS. For now, we have to bid our time and wait patiently.

It's a country driven by emotions and that too putin's emotion.
I think its the opposite. From recent past and its foreign policy, it seems Russia knows exactly what its doing. It knows its history, has proper plans for future and more importantly knows when to switch sides. We, on the other hand are clueless. No proper history knowledge, No awareness as to who our enemies are(internal/external)(overt/covert) and no actual(longterm) plan on how to deal with them. While our enemies are scheming against us we parrot 'Vasudeva kutumbakam'
 

bipin

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I dont think it is the time to quit our friendship with Russia as someone mentioned earlier. It is still a force to reckon with and we too need them.

The reason for such cold relations between India and Russia is not just due to India's growing cooperation with US. It is also because of China's inclination towards India and the complex geopolitics of the region. There is some real symbiotic relationship between China and Russia. China needs Russian tech to fight US, in fact it developed its first nuclear weapons with help of Russia. Russia needs China's trade/financial backing to fight US sanctions.

Keeping that in mind Central Asia happens to be both Russia and China's underbelly. Russia lost control of it after 1990, and cant risk occupying it again without more sanctions. For China it is a part of its ambitious One Belt One Road project. Even CPEC is a part of it. China fears that if India takes Kashmir from Pakistan, it will lose access to Pakistan, the CPEC and eventually road to middle East. Afghanistan's US occupation has spoiled, Russia and China's ambitions somewhat in the region.

If not both at least China does not want India's presence in Central Asia. Why? India will want to use it for mounting an attack on Pakistan and getting back Kashmir. Russia is just sitting pretty playing China's friend. It has more interests with China than India.

Pakistan needs China to defend Kashmir and all three have common interests in keeping India out of central Asia. Eventually India should end decades old friendship with Russia and fight to take Kashmir. But it will take time and effort.
 

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