AUSTRALIA runs the risk of “martyrdom” in the case of any China-US conflict

Discussion in 'Indo Pacific & East Asia' started by neo29, Nov 18, 2010.

  1. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    ONE of Australia’s most senior military officers has warned that the appearance of the first Chinese aircraft carrier within the next five years poses the “greatest risk” to regional harmony.

    He adds that Australia runs the risk of “martyrdom” in the case of any China-US conflict.

    The warnings come amid unease across Asia about China’s growing military power – particularly the rapidly expanding People’s Liberation Navy – and its new-found aggression in territorial disputes with neighbours such as Japan and Vietnam.

    “Each of the Pacific nations will manage China’s carrier ambitions differently, but the US response will set the regional tone,” Brigadier General John Frewen wrote in an essay published in the US’s Joint Force Quarterly’s third-quarter edition.

    “For Australia, the choices include retaining US security dependence, thereby risking a form of martyrdom, or pursuing greater defence self-sufficiency. The debate about genuine self-sufficiency has not been held in any substantial way.”

    The essay won the US Secretary of Defence’s National Security Essay Competition for this year, the first time the award has been given to a non-US officer.

    The paper has emerged as Australia’s most senior military officers prepare to travel to China for the annual Defence Strategic Dialogue.

    Australia upset China last year with the release of its defence white paper, which effectively said China was a potential threat in the region and made the surprise call for 12 new submarines to be added to the fleet.

    “The unintended consequences of Chinese carriers pose the greatest threat to regional harmony in the decades ahead,” General Frewen states. He noted that China did not have an Incident At Sea agreement with the US, similar to one that existed to defuse incidents between the US and Russia from 1972.

    “Without an agreement to moderate sea incidents, it may be impossible to realise a ‘harmonious ocean’ between a Chinese carrier-capable navy and other regional navies in the South China Sea and Pacific.”

    The Defence Department said Brigadier Frewen’s views did not represent the government’s.

    Last week, Australia promised to strengthen military ties with the US during high-level Ausmin talks with US Secretary of Defence Robert Gates. “It’s entirely right that the Americans, ourselves and others talk about how these rising (regional) powers, including India, contribute to a regional and global rules-based order,” Foreign Minister Kevin Rudd said after the talks.

    idrw.org
     
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  3. ejazr

    ejazr Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    The US is keeping a constant lobbying effort to make sure Australia sees China as a threat. This is despite the fact that Australia has the biggest surplus with China.

    In my uni two months back there was a lecture from a US professor on a similar theme and basically went on to say that "China can't rise peacefully".

    Full Transcript is here. A Gathering Storm: China's Challenge to US Power in Asia
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    A single Chinese carrier is not going to be a threat to anyone that is for sure. But for defense forces facing cuts, it sure is a good enough excuse to get more funding for better toys.
     
  5. Iamanidiot

    Iamanidiot Elite Member Elite Member

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    Ejaz ,any war between US and China will not simply be a fight between two nations,it will also implicitly be a struggle between two races caucausian white and mongolids in that scenario ,Australia as a nation may tend to support the US.Other than that China is in no position a security threat to Australia in its current state can't say about its military capabilities in the future
     
  6. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    Wonder what's this statement change with Australians. First they bootlick Beijing and next they call them a threat. Guess staying isolated Down Under gives them an itch to be a part of the world issues. No one is even bothering the Australians-- Why do they want to meddle in matters that don't concern them? More than Australia; India, Vietnam, Japan and South Korea are threatened and we don't make half the noise.

    If PLAN wants, it can even now without a carrier over-run Australian Navy if NATO doesn't come to its rescue. First they started creating panic in JSF team that F-35 is not a capable enough fighter and now they start naming Chinese as their regional threat whereas China's thousands of miles away from their mainland.
     
  7. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    Australia is to chicken to stand up to the chinese and at the ame time they want to be on US side, if US does not protect them who will? Same hypocrisy in selling uranium to the Chinese a known proliferator and worrying about the peaceful rise and preaching NPT to others.
     
  8. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Australia and New Zealand are still officially parts of the British Empire. They carry the Union Flag and the Queen is their Head-of-State. Britain is part of NATO. And PRC invasion on Australia will automatically trigger a NATO counterattack. Sure, Australia might face the initial brunt and will bear significant human and infrastructure losses; however PRC will simply cease to exist after a NATO counter-attack and I can bet that UK and US will definitely retaliate, even if other NATO countries do not.
     
  9. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Aussie navy even now is pretty well equipped to respond to any current and medium term chinese threat. And no china will not be able to overrun australia without NATO. Chinese expeditionary force is nowhere powerful enough to mount that kind of an assault. Even if the chinese get a couple of carriers it won't be a threat. Another thing to remember is that major Aussie cities are in the south. North is pretty much barren save Darwin the major city in the north. What is china going to destroy in their attack? Aussies also have good ASW system in place as well as maritime recon. Everyone remembers them spying in the Bay of Bengal over IN ship to catch its signature.

    But yes they just have to be prepared for all eventuality and have reasonable preparation for it.
     
  10. Godless-Kafir

    Godless-Kafir DFI Buddha Senior Member

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    You spoke my mind, Australia has some sort of complex. I myself could not put an finger on it till now, its either they feel left out down under or they look at the map and see their country is as big as US so they have an delusion of their place in the world as right after the US, the only problem is its a complete desert and population is as big as NYC.

    Australia behaves more like an attention whore, it definitely has an loud mouth and jumping into issues that does matter to it just to be seen on the world stage. They should take lessons from Canada.
     
  11. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    Their policies are all old ones which will change with changing geo political equations. Australia didn't do anything different to india or others that the US and other western countries didn't. It just followed the policies of its brethren. And don't forget that australia was "officially" racist till 1971 under the "White Australia" policy.
     
  12. niharjhatn

    niharjhatn Regular Member

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    Huh, China ALREADY own Australia.

    Trust me, I live here!

    The number of Chinese here are staggering, as well as the number of Chinese companies in Aus.

    The only thing Australia has going for it are its natural resources, and most of these are now owned by foreigners.
     
  13. LETHALFORCE

    LETHALFORCE Moderator Moderator

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    USA saved you guys from the Japanese only to lose you to the Chinese.
     

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