‘Mumbai-II could lead to a fully blown Indo-Pak war’

Discussion in 'Politics & Society' started by EagleOne, Sep 11, 2010.

  1. EagleOne

    EagleOne Regular Member

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    As U.S. observes the ninth anniversary of the September 11 terror attacks, a reputed Washington-based research group today warned that a repeat of 26/11 may lead to a full blown Indo-Pak war.

    Preventing Mumbai-II from occurring remains a major foreign policy challenge for the US, the report said.

    “One of the more predictable foreign policy challenges of the next years is a ‘Mumbai II’: a large-scale attack on a major Indian city by a Pakistani militant group that kills hundreds,” said the 42-page report from the Bipartisan Policy Centre’s National Security Preparedness Group, a Washington based research group.

    Authored by Peter Bergen and Bruce Hoffman, the report.

    “Assessing the Terrorist Threat” appreciated the considerable restraint shown by India in its reaction to the provocation of the Mumbai attacks in 2008.

    “Another such attack, however, would likely produce considerable political pressure on the Indian government to ’do something’ That something would likely involve incursions over the border to eliminate the training camps of Pakistani militant groups with histories of attacking India,” the report said.

    “That could lead in turn to a full-blown war for the fourth time since 1947 between India and Pakistan,” it said.

    “Such a war involves the possibility of a nuclear exchange and the certainty that Pakistan would move substantial resources to its eastern border and away from fighting the Taliban on its western border, so relieving pressure on all the militant groups based there, including al-Qaeda,” said the report.

    Over a three-day period in late November 2008, LeT carried out multiple attacks in Mumbai targeting five-star hotels housing Westerners, as well as a Jewish-American community centre, it noted.

    Additional incidents involved the Pakistan-born US citizen David Headley (who had changed his name from Daood Sayed Gilani).

    Headley’s reconnaissance efforts on behalf of LeT were pivotal to the attacks in Mumbai, the report said.

    “Last year he also planned an operation to kill those responsible for the 2005 publication in a Danish newspaper of cartoons of the Prophet Mohammed, which many Muslims had deemed to be offensive,” the report said.


    The Hindu : News / National : ‘Mumbai-II could lead to a fully blown Indo-Pak war’
     
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  3. Illusive

    Illusive Senior Member Senior Member

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    If the LeT or other terror outfits directed towards India are in control of ISI, then the possibility of another Mumbai like attack can be ruled out for another year and half or two. Pakistan would know that if another terror attack in India is traced back then its war, so it'll prepare itself in acquiring weapons from China, i also like to note that since Pakistan has given China the control over GB is an indication that it wants Chinese military presence since it would mean direct support from China although i doubt it to be a two front.
     
  4. Tshering22

    Tshering22 Sikkimese Saber Senior Member

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    That is obvious. People's patience is waning and GOI was screwed last time itself with public anger. If (goodness forbid) another thing happens, and still GOI doesn't resort to military solution, then the ruling government will be forever out of elections on grounds of "pathetic national security" and an international embarrassment. Plus public anger and violence would be directed towards netas and politicians with MLAs getting beaten up at the hands of people.

    So yes, we can say that government will be forced to take a military solution.
     
  5. neo29

    neo29 Senior Member Senior Member

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    All we need after Mumbai Attacks 2 is 2 3 hours to conduct surgical strikes. We can eliminate terrorist camps in Pok without crossing the border. All we need to fire short range missiles like Brahmos to destroy the terror camps. Destroying terror camps only in PoK will give good results of atleast 1000 terrorists dead.

    This also serves as a perfect opportunity to conduct assassinations of most wanted targets that India seeks inside Pakistan. But for that our Intelligence agencies must be on alert and know the whereabouts of the target at times. India must do what Israel did during Operations Wrath of God.
     
  6. seiko

    seiko Regular Member

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    You really think it will be a piece of cake to have an operation under the nuclear threat..if we conduct these kind of operation sure we are also going to get some retaliation..Our neighbor is no Palestine...they will retaliate and if they dont that will allow some lunatics to come in to power there..it will be more problamatic for us..so instead of thinking Mumbai 2 will be a perfect oppurtunity lets hope it will not happen..if its happens then ready to accept some serious loss ..
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2010
  7. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    "Mumbai-II could lead to a fully blown Indo-Pak war"

    Pay attention to the word in boldface above. It is 'could'; a conjunctive of the modal verb 'can'. In other words, it is a fantasy or conjecture, not reality.


    If Mumbai I and Parliament Attacks did not result in war, I wonder what will. Moreover, this bogey of potential Pakistani nuke attack on India was still existing during Kargil War. India, depite that threat, fought on.

    I am not particularly hopeful about the attitude of the current government.
     
  8. bhramos

    bhramos Elite Member Elite Member

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    you are true. this Government doesnt feel like to fight a war. nor any recent politicians, they knew war could cause halt the Growth of our country. If we pass 2012 mark without war.then there may be no war before a decade. as after 2012 India will become strongest or be on a full swing in conversion of a good strong economy or military. with 2 AC's and 2 N-subs around. so no war after 2012. even if enemy gets idea of war with India, his spines will shiver............
     
  9. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    We are winning the war without firing a bullet. Why risk it all?

    Our irrational enemy is getting a strong dose of his own medicine. Let's not disturb him while he commits suicide. Just be ready to deal with the leftover mess.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2010
  10. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    Indo-Pak full blown War is what Extremist groups & some state elements of Pak Govt want & that is why 26/11 type attacks might arise again.

    GOI made the sound move by neglecting military option & mounting pressure on Pak after 26/11. There won't be full-blown war IMO. Pakistan doesn't need India's military to get destroyed. They are already walking the lines of total national destruction. GOI doesn't want to destabilize the harmony of industrial growth, booming economy & foreign relations.

    "The Cold Start" has been enough to scare the neighbors. GOI will never engage in full-blown war in current scenario. Its better that Indian establishment keeps it silent but roars harsh if played. Recent PM's remark had been enough for PRC to come straight on their position.

    :emot15:

    Preventing? US policymakers won't even mind slipping terrorists trying to attack another Indian city if it fulfills their Global-strategy. They are just scared that in case GOI goes mad on Pak, US's whole work in Af-Pak goes nullified.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2010
  11. thakur_ritesh

    thakur_ritesh Administrator Administrator

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    i think india has quite significantly distanced itself from the thought of war, both the NDA and UPA 1 were testimony to the fact. much like what vinod said, why disturb a country which is already on a suicidal mission, all you want to do is make sure the process becomes that much more quicker and the way to do that is not through india, but a'stan for sure and iran if possible.

    have a nice warm cup of coffee and watch pakistan do what we intend to do but i doubt we will ever do. pakistanis are our best bet on that, and they are their own worst enemies :p :D
     
  12. pmaitra

    pmaitra Moderator Moderator

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    Makes perfect sense. Good point.
     
  13. EagleOne

    EagleOne Regular Member

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    no need to go for a war at present they are at a war which is far more difficult to handle ..
    just look at the reaction/aid given to them when they are worst hit by floods and attack like 9/11 or 27/11
    which will make them not to get a penny from other nations. :angry_1:
     
  14. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Yes, its waste of time and mistake to stop a mentally crazy person (Pakistan) on the verge of committing suicide, if you try to stop him, instead he might attack you. This crazy loony as a person (Pakistan) may not be useful to this world but his organs (provinces that break free from Pak) will come mighty useful for India and the world once he (Pakistan) dies.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2010
  15. keshtopatel

    keshtopatel Regular Member

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    India, despite having conventional arms superiorty ratio of 2:1 is not able to call the nuclear bluff of Pakistan. India´s pussylinamous acts says it all, and thats the reason we get periodic shameful beatings from Pakistan for not having courageous leaders like Indira Gandhi. If a country can not retaliate after its Parliament was attacked, then what can be said, other than, that Indians are cowards. Pakistan is not only indulged in Jehadic attacks against India, but prints Indian currency (makes billions). And here is a Meek Gandhian type country, ready to face blow after blow - India has aa bail mujhe mar type syndrome.

    I am positive that our armed forces, comprising of wheels, wings and water, are raring to go full blast, but for our eunuch politicians. It was Atal Bihari Bajpayee who started the concept of aar par ki ladai, but was pressured by uncle same. It seems like Pakistan is a regional power with all these acts, while India acts like banana republic.


    Where is India´s national security when we need it?

    This way we are sending a crystal clear signal - keep on hitting us, we will not fight back.

    India is acting shamefully on this aspect.
     
  16. Vinod2070

    Vinod2070 मध्यस्थ Stars and Ambassadors

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    ^^ Man, look at Pakistan today. What did it get after all the terror? A taste of its own medicine.

    Don't worry. I think Indian strategy may be understated but it is working. Getting into an overt war will be like playing into the hands of extremists. Letting them bleed dry of their own terrorists is the smart way to make them pay.

    Pakistan was hyphenated with India till a decade back. Now they are known the world over as a terrorist cess pool. Whether it is of their own making or not, we just need to keep on progressing and modernize our forces till they are just scared shytless of even looking at us.

    India has already won the war. It just needs to be reinforced and that is happening with every passing day that goes by without a war.
     
  17. anoop_mig25

    anoop_mig25 Senior Member Senior Member

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    i do not think mumbai-2 or anything of that scale can bring 2 countries on brink of war because of 2 reason (or say 3)

    1>very very important one that first of all we have established that such attack was carried out pakistan supported terrorist
    2>important one as news are now trembling out that ISI knew of mumbai attack . so in future it would still know it. so whenever such attack would occur pakistan defence force would already in alert /emergency war like secanrio and would be ready to fight while Indian defence force wold find it difficult/hard to carry out counter attack in pakistan
    3>Such type of attacks require guts from political leaders like Indra Gandhi , which i do not see in any present or future leaders of India.

    now only one thing can bring war to india with pakistan and that is if any indian politican and/or his family(i mean those belonging to prominent family/ VIP status) gets killed by terrorist act.may be by kashmir terrorist (because indian poltican skin has become to fat. nothing concerns them . they have concerns only for them and their family members )
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2010
  18. nrj

    nrj Stars and Ambassadors Stars and Ambassadors

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    That is one of the possibility & not the only one when India can get into war.

    Indian strike against such assassination will be justified not because he is family member of some political party but because he/she is Head of state.
     
  19. EagleOne

    EagleOne Regular Member

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    they cant justify like this ....
    and it isbetter for us not to go for a war for next 5 years or so so that our forces get new weapons. and mostly we will not face a war with pakistan but i doubt with china ....
     
  20. prahladh

    prahladh Respected Member

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    ‘Mumbai-II could lead to a fully blown Indo-Pak war’


    Usually when a 26/11 scenario Even nutless monkeys would retaliate. But I doubt about full blown Indo-Pak war. I mean mostly exchange of dossiers, call from world leaders to defuse tension etc. Nothing much.
     
  21. Daredevil

    Daredevil On Vacation! Administrator

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    Mumbai 26/11 attacks have established following facts about Pakistan

    1) The attackers were Pakistani
    2) The attacks were shown on live TV including the Pakistani attackers and this has inscribed into the minds of the people all over the world.
    3) Through the help of FBI and other countries we have proven that the master-mind behind these attacks was in Pakistan and a Pakistani
    4) By capture of David Headley of LeT who was involved in recce of the mumbai 26/11 targets we have implicated that Pakistan state supported terrorist organization was involved in the attacks and indirectly implicating that Pakistan is a terrorist nation.
    5) Due to killing of not only Indians but also foreigners, these attacks are etched into the memories of the people of different countries.
    6) India had the option of attacking Pakistan in the presence of overwhelming evidence that the attack came from Pakistan but by refraining from attack and taking this issue diplomatically India showed that it is a responsible nation and not a war monger.
    7) By not attacking Pakistan, we have not given the chance to terrorist tanzeems and Pakistani military to regroup and now we can see the domino effect of Pakistani taliban on Pakistan and its downward spiral, which otherwise would not have been possible if India were to attack.
    8) All this shows to the world that India is the good guy and Pakistan is the bad guy which was not clear to world previously due to deft management of western media by the Pakistan supporters and masters (US, UK, Saudi, China etc).
    9) If in future any attack of this scale happens it will be easy for the world to believe that Pakistan is the attacker and India will be supported by world if it takes action against Pakistan.
    10) So, we still have world on our side and that is important in the scheme of things related to Indian and Pakistan issues in future.

    India should bide its time and strike Pakistan at the right time and take PoK which is rightfully ours.
     
    Last edited: Sep 11, 2010

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