Americans badly want to get out of Afghanistan

Discussion in 'Afghanistan' started by Yusuf, Jul 3, 2013.

  1. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    A frank piece by Bruce Riedel in which he says Americans badly want to get out of Afghanistan and leave the Adghans to their fate

    The Doha portent
    Bruce Riedel : Wed Jul 03 2013, 05:29 hrs
    A A
    The most hardline elements in Taliban were strengthened by the Doha office opening

    Americans are justly eager to end their longest war ever and bring home their troops from Afghanistan. President Obama’s administration promises often that the war will be over in 2014, forgetting that the war almost certainly will not end for Afghans next year even if all American and other foreign forces depart the country. This eagerness to find a way out has been on display in Doha in the preparations to begin a political process to get the Taliban to the negotiating table. The truth is we really don’t even know who is calling the shots in the Taliban leadership today.

    After years of indirect talks between the Taliban, Washington, Kabul and several other third parties, the Qatari government allowed the Taliban to open an office in Doha with the Taliban flag flying and signs everywhere proclaiming the office represents the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan. For President Hamid Karzai and the Afghan government America supports, the symbolism was a sell-out. Instead of treating the Taliban as a political party or a gang of terrorists, the Taliban got the symbols of full statehood. The Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan is the title the Taliban gave the government they and Pakistan created in the 1990s. It was only recognised by two other governments then and was ousted by a United Nations-endorsed and America-led international coalition in 2001 after it harboured the al-Qaeda attack on 9/11. For Karzai and his government, the announcement, the flags and signs conceded the legitimacy of the Taliban’s claim to be the authentic government of Afghanistan and that the NATO-led army is nothing more than a foreign occupation illegally backing up a rogue regime. The most hardline elements in the Taliban were strengthened by the Doha office opening.

    The Taliban’s patrons, the Pakistani army and its ISI intelligence service, were pleased with the outcome. Pakistani journalists close to army chief General Ashfaq Kayani quickly announced that he orchestrated the entire Doha affair and outsmarted the Americans. The Pakistani generals believe time is on their side in Afghanistan, that America has already lost the war and that their clients will prevail.

    Mullah Omar, who most believe lives under ISI protection in Quetta, Pakistan, said nothing. That is not unusual. He has not been seen in public in years. On rare occasions, a message is issued in his name but he never appears in front of his followers. For all the world knows, the self-styled Commander of the Faithful may be dead, mad or incapacitated. The Taliban team in Doha is said to be totally loyal to Omar but they too are creatures of the ISI. As the former head of Afghan intelligence, Amrullah Saleh, likes to point out, the Taliban negotiators in Doha fly home to Karachi whenever they want to see their bosses or their families. They are not independent players.

    Karzai was in Doha just a week before the office opening and he clearly warned the Qataris and Americans not to give the Taliban these symbolic victories. So he suspended the talks with the United States on a long-term strategic agreement to provide for a post-2014 security relationship between America and Afghanistan and he announced his government will not participate in any political process with the Taliban under the Doha ground rules. After several messages from Secretary of State John Kerry, Karzai has backed off and the offending flag and sign have been removed in Doha, at least temporarily.

    But the Doha debacle will be seen by many as a portent of the future. Karzai undoubtedly noted that the US also backed down on its longstanding demand that the Taliban break publicly with al-Qaeda. Instead, the Taliban made vague statements about never letting “their country” be used for terrorism against another. That echoes the Taliban’s statements before and after 9/11 that al-Qaeda was not engaged in attacks on American targets despite all the obvious evidence that it was. The Taliban leadership has never broken with al-Qaeda and openly mourned the death of Osama bin Laden two years ago after Obama sent commandos to kill him outside the gate of Pakistan’s Kakul military academy in Abbottabad. For its part, al-Qaeda still swears loyalty to Taliban leader Mullah Omar as the global commander of the jihadi faithful. Perhaps they know if he is really still running the show in Quetta, perhaps not. But al-Qaeda fighters are still on the battlefield in Afghanistan fighting with the Taliban.

    For his part, Karzai seriously overestimates American interest in a long-term partnership with Afghanistan. He believes the US wants long-term access to Afghan military bases to continue drone operations against al-Qaeda targets in Pakistan and to conduct intelligence surveillance over Pakistan, Iran and other parts of Central Asia. He misjudges just how badly many Americans, especially members of Obama’s Democratic Party, simply want to get out of the war and abandon the Afghans to their fate. Thus he plays his weak hand with a bluntness that often backfires.

    In principle, negotiations with the Taliban is a good idea. A political process that helps to reconcile Afghans together is badly needed. But the Afghans should run the show. The ISI cannot be trusted to deal in good faith. Outsourcing American diplomacy to Qatar, itself a Wahhabi state, was a dangerous approach. American diplomats should also press a lot harder to find out who is in charge on the other side of the table, and who really is calling the shots on the battlefield and the conference room.

    The writer is director of the Intelligence Project, Brookings Institution, US. His latest book is ‘Avoiding Armageddon: America, India and Pakistan to the Brink and Back’

    [email protected]

    http://m.indianexpress.com/news/the-doha-portent/1136806/
     
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  3. datguy79

    datguy79 Regular Member

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    Americans want to get out? I will believe it when they leave Bagram Airfield.

    Afghans have already been responsible for securing the entire country for two weeks now. The result is a steady number of Taliban killed and captured daily; which only reinforces one fact: The taliban can never fight en masse on the battlefield.
     
  4. Yusuf

    Yusuf GUARDIAN Administrator

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    I think you guys have to start covert ops too. Find that one eyes jackass and kill him and his leadership team. Start your anti Talib ops now itself in full earnest.
     
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  5. datguy79

    datguy79 Regular Member

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    We killed one of the shura members when he tried to sneak into Afghanistan on March 30th, i think.
    Let them rot in Quetta. I am sure they are under constant surveillance, but killing them provides too much risk at this point. We do miss Amrullah Saleh as head of the NDS though. The current guy is good too, but he is too hamstrung by Karzai. Afghanistan needs a strong leader come next April. People don't realize how centralized the system is. The president appoints everyone from ministers to governors to police chiefs directly.
     
  6. Himanshu Pandey

    Himanshu Pandey Regular Member

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    I have just one question does afghan forces hold hope against taliban?
     
  7. naseem

    naseem Regular Member

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    Afghan army cannot stand against. Taliban
     
  8. gokussj9

    gokussj9 Senior Member Senior Member

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    One thing we can both agree on is Pakistan army cannot. Whether Afghan army does, is yet to be seen.:cool2:
     
  9. datguy79

    datguy79 Regular Member

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    The Taliban are actually pretty crappy fighters, averaging around 50 dead a day. Kabul city alone is protected by more Afghan forces than the entirety of the Afghan Taliban. ANA has 12k special forces, which is by itself more than enough to take care of the Talibs. Most people forget that most casualties occur due to IEDs, not due to enemy gunfire. Just as an example, in Logar province, 170 soldiers have died as a result of IEDs while only 7 have died in a firefight.
     
  10. sayareakd

    sayareakd Moderator Moderator

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    After Uncle get out of Afghanistan, it is Afghans who have to take care of their country, they have to understand if they want to have better future for themselves and their kids, they need to fight it out with talibs, who will try very hard to take control of Kabul and will create civil war type situation backed by Pakistan.

    Uncle will continue to support Afghanistan from the outside and will provide material and money, they too dont want Afghan to be post 9/11.
     
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  11. MLRS

    MLRS Regular Member

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    Pakjabis have already travelled to the tribal areas for preparation of a civil war. Punjabi militants preparing for Afghan civil war after NATO pullout - Khaama Press (KP) | Afghan Online Newspaper

    I think America will leave a small number of special forces and CIA in air bases to target Al Qaeda. But if Afghan forces do not get air support or artillery then I fear a loss of land as it becomes difficult to defend against a resurgent enemy.

    To crush resistance, we must handle it the Afghan way: collective punishment for tribes that defy the rule of law.
     
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  12. naseem

    naseem Regular Member

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    Looks like a joke swat pakistan army has Done better against ttp and what have you done Every body knows you have lost the war
     
  13. naseem

    naseem Regular Member

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    The truth is that the taliban control more area than your ANA
     
  14. gokussj9

    gokussj9 Senior Member Senior Member

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    We will be back in our home away from all this pretty soon and you will be left with all the sh!t to take care of. Your ass gets pounded by drones and could not do jacksh!t when we got Osama. We have no interest in conquering or establishing democracy in Afghanistan. You can have your strategic depth to stop India with 50,000+ of your citizens already sent to their 72 and more coming. Your govt is begging to TTP to talk and stop the attacks and with prisoners release and so on. Again, us winning or losing, does not really matter when we will be enjoying pop-corns in our homes and see your country become a Taliban dominated one.
     
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  15. naseem

    naseem Regular Member

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    And you people are asking isi to help you out in talks with taliban and what your dreaming about pakistan can turn out a disaster for you because your master israel will be nuked by pakistan that day
     
  16. gokussj9

    gokussj9 Senior Member Senior Member

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    :lol:

    Please keep up this kinda thinking no matter what the situation is. It becomes easier for me to know why your country is in such a mess. You deserved every bit of it.
     
  17. datguy79

    datguy79 Regular Member

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    The truth is your 0-4 record vs India:lol:
     
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  18. SPIEZ

    SPIEZ Senior Member Senior Member

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    A hell hole is awaiting to be opened in Afghanistan as soon as America leaves.

    This is Baki's one true chance to redeem themselves of previous failures.
     
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